Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[Blackjack]

I'm not sure why people are making Holtz out to be a bigger bust than someone like Matteau. Well actually I do know why, just disappointment in a high pick not working out.

Because the gap in expectations between a 7OA and a 29 OA are greater than the gap in expectations between a 29 OA and a third round pick.

That’s what makes a bust: high expectations. Quenneville, Matteau, and Corrente aren’t really busts, they’re just low-expectation picks that didn’t pan out.

The problem with the Devils is that they whiffed on so many of these mid-late round 1sts. We’ve whiffed on every single mid-late 1st since Zajac twenty years ago. We have not had a 1st round pick later than 12 that hit. It’s absurd and infuriating.

 

[NJDevs26]

Mercer's still kind of a hit even with his off year last year. Even Muk you could say was at least enough of a hit to have him go off as a major piece in a trade. The further irony is both those picks were better than Holtz to this point and they were all drafted in the same year.

 

[Blackjack]

People whine about drafting for need but those are examples I like to point out where slavishly sticking to the board isn't any better than overdrafting on need. Those picks were the polar opposite of drafting for need, that was being stubborn. Yeah I know Lou was supposedly paranoid over the small chance Marty might walk as a FA, child please...he'd already signed long-term by the time Ahonen was drafted, two years after he'd already picked Damphousse.

I don’t think we fully appreciate how bananas the Ahonen and Damphousse picks were. So effing bizarre. I guess you could argue that the Ahonen pick didn’t hurt us because nobody was picked between him and our next pick (Commodore). Damphousse though, man we could have had Brendan Morrow.

Mercer's still kind of a hit even with his off year last year. Even Muk you could say was at least enough of a hit to have him go off as a major piece in a trade. The further irony is both those picks were better than Holtz to this point and they were all drafted in the same year.

Sorry, I was a bit sloppy looking at hockeydb.

Yes, I’d consider both Mercer and Muk to be hits.

 

[Triumph]

You're saying that now yet the guy had an awful revolving door of wingers his first 2 years, the Penguins were in the abyss with Sid for a decade until they found Guentzel. They kept trading for guys like Hossa, Kunitz, etc. I do agree with you overall that it's a bad strategy but the Devils kinda had to draft for that since no winger was going to come here with their own. They will now after seeing how Hughes fully arriving in the league.

The Penguins were one of the best teams in the league over that stretch. They won two Stanley Cups before Guentzel even got there.

Why would no winger come here on their own?

It adds up that the Devils would want a high-scoring wing - the idea that Holtz was drafted specifically to play with Hughes doesn't hold water for me. They almost never played together, as it was.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

The Penguins were one of the best teams in the league over that stretch. They won two Stanley Cups before Guentzel even got there.

Why would no winger come here on their own?

It adds up that the Devils would want a high-scoring wing - the idea that Holtz was drafted specifically to play with Hughes doesn't hold water for me. They almost never played together, as it was.

You missed the point, lol. The Penguins still had to consistently go out and burn picks on something they've should've solved in house. Fitz was in Pittsburgh when that was happening, you don't think he realized that could be the future for Jack too once he got up and running? There was simply nothing wrong with the logic of the pick of Alex Holtz. If you want to be mad with how he blew up, etc, then go ahead. But being mad with the selection overall is pure hindsight. And again, of course, they never played together, Jack got better in the areas that Holtz was drafted for. Those things happen in the NHL, instead of bagging on Holtz, maybe give props to Jack for fixing his pea shooter shot that was obviously a downside of his game the first 2 years into the league into something lethal.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Mercer's still kind of a hit even with his off year last year. Even Muk you could say was at least enough of a hit to have him go off as a major piece in a trade. The further irony is both those picks were better than Holtz to this point and they were all drafted in the same year.

Crazy thing is Mercer still put up 20 last year and he had a dogshit year for the most part. He's most definitely a hit. Shak would've been a hit too if he stayed imo, draft lobby pundits losing their minds draft night will still be funny over that pick lol

 

[Andre Palot]

WHERE MERCER DEAL?!?

 

[Triumph]

You missed the point, lol. The Penguins still had to consistently go out and burn picks on something they've should've solved in house.

What you're talking about here is the process of building a team. Everything is either solved in-house or via trade or free agency. These are the modes by which teams can improve themselves. There are obvious advantages to drafting players over signing them in free agency, but the disadvantage is time - you almost never solve this year's problem at last year's draft. Anyway, I know you know all of this, I just think it's often much easier to keep throwing assets at an issue than spiking lucky in the draft.

Fitz was in Pittsburgh when that was happening, you don't think he realized that could be the future for Jack too once he got up and running?

A future which includes 2 Stanley Cups and a bunch of high finishes besides? Yeah, I hope so. The Crosby's wingers thing was always overblown by Pittsburgh fans as the missing piece on a team that already had a ton of stuff. The real downfall of the team was usually defense or goaltending.

There was simply nothing wrong with the logic of the pick of Alex Holtz. If you want to be mad with how he blew up, etc, then go ahead. But being mad with the selection overall is pure hindsight. And again, of course, they never played together, Jack got better in the areas that Holtz was drafted for. Those things happen in the NHL, instead of bagging on Holtz, maybe give props to Jack for fixing his pea shooter shot that was obviously a downside of his game the first 2 years into the league into something lethal.

I'm not mad at the logic of selecting Alex Holtz. I'm mad at the logic you've purported the Devils to have here, where Holtz was selected specifically to play with Jack Hughes.

Holtz is not a good NHL player. The idea that Jack Hughes improved so there is no room for Holtz is a fundamental misreading of what makes an NHL player useful or effective.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I don't think Holtz was drafted specifically to play with Hughes. I think he was drafted because he was an elite goal scorer and those are always in high demand regardless of team need.

It's also not drafting for needs when your team needs literally everything except centers. We had the 6th worst record and 4th worst goal differential in 2020, and our previous three seasons were #1 overall pick, Taylor Hall MVP season, #1 overall pick.

Honestly I think Fitz was looking at defense in 2020. Sanderson and Drysdale were a tier above everyone else, after they were gone another defenseman didn't go until Kaiden Guhle at #16. Fitz made sure to get a defenseman at #20 knowing he wouldn't pick again until the late 3rd, and the next two drafts he picked defensemen in the top-5. The board didn't shake out the way he was hoping so he took the highest-ceiling forward on his board. At least that's how it looks to me, we may never know.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

What you're talking about here is the process of building a team. Everything is either solved in-house or via trade or free agency. These are the modes by which teams can improve themselves. There are obvious advantages to drafting players over signing them in free agency.



A future which includes 2 Stanley Cups and a bunch of high finishes besides? Yeah, I hope so. The Crosby's wingers thing was always overblown by Pittsburgh fans as the missing piece on a team that already had a ton of stuff. The real downfall of the team was usually defense or goaltending.



I'm not mad at the logic of selecting Alex Holtz. I'm mad at the logic you've purported the Devils to have here, where Holtz was selected specifically to play with Jack Hughes.

Holtz is not a good NHL player. The idea that Jack Hughes improved so there is no room for Holtz is a fundamental misreading of what makes an NHL player useful or effective.

If you think Alex Holtz could be a good player as a middle or bottom 6, that's on you. We clearly knew he can't. If you told people back in 2020, we would all be horrified in that idea. Also I don't know what you're saying, teams draft for certain players being surrounded all the time, not sure why you think it's just some foreign concept. Ducks just took Sennecke this past year over better players because Sennecke fits better with their players, mainly elite center guys in Cutter/Leo Carlsson. NHL teams do this all the time.

I don't think Holtz was drafted specifically to play with Hughes. I think he was drafted because he was an elite goal scorer and those are always in high demand regardless of team need.

It's also not drafting for needs when your team needs literally everything except centers. We had the 6th worst record and 4th worst goal differential in 2020, and our previous three seasons were #1 overall pick, Taylor Hall MVP season, #1 overall pick.

Honestly I think Fitz was looking at defense in 2020. Sanderson and Drysdale were a tier above everyone else, after they were gone another defenseman didn't go until Kaiden Guhle at #16. Fitz made sure to get a defenseman at #20 knowing he wouldn't pick again until the late 3rd, and the next two drafts he picked defensemen in the top-5. The board didn't shake out the way he was hoping so he took the highest-ceiling forward on his board. At least that's how it looks to me, we may never know.

They could've easily went with Jack Quinn then if that was the case. Holtz was a hand and glove fit with 2019-2020 Jack Hughes as a player. Not sure why people are up in arms about this, lmao. Also like I said before, people thought Timo was the perfect wing for Jack until people saw both are volume shooters (even though this was known when he was in SJ as a player). It's less on Holtz just flat out sucks than Jack getting elite on the one thing that plagued him early in his career. We still went 2/3 in that draft and which is why the Holtz discourse is dumb regardless.

 

[Devils731]

Ducks just took Sennecke this past year over better players because Sennecke fits better with their players, mainly elite center guys in Cutter/Leo Carlsson. NHL teams do this all the time.

I think that's part of the discussion though, I'm guessing the Ducks don't think they left better players on the table. I'm guessing they believe they took the best fit from a bunch of players all generally in the same tier.

Drafting is hard and an inexact science but I don't belive teams sit around very often going "scouts, don't get me the best player, fill a future NHL need instead". For me, I think fans believe players when drafted have a hard number and tier while NHL teams think the tiers are broader, reflecting how hard scouting and development is.

 

[Triumph]

If you think Alex Holtz could be a good player as a middle or bottom 6, that's on you. We clearly knew he can't. If you told people back in 2020, we would all be horrified in that idea. Also I don't know what you're saying, teams draft for certain players being surrounded all the time, not sure why you think it's just some foreign concept. Ducks just took Sennecke this past year over better players because Sennecke fits better with their players, mainly elite center guys in Cutter/Leo Carlsson. NHL teams do this all the time.

I do not believe in the concept of a player either being a top-line player or nothing. That is not how the NHL functions at all. There may have been a time that it did, but I am skeptical. Top lines are not fundamentally different from the two lines underneath it, and there are very seldom players who cannot function without enormous support - these players are almost always replaced quickly anyway.

Now that obviously isn't to say that playing with Jack Hughes isn't different than playing with a 3rd line center, it is, but there aren't players who are put on top lines who cannot succeed on different lines. That does not exist.

They could've easily went with Jack Quinn then if that was the case. Holtz was a hand and glove fit with 2019-2020 Jack Hughes as a player. Not sure why people are up in arms about this, lmao.

Do you see how you've invented the logic here? This is your invention based on a putatively objective measurement of the two players. The Devils could've had any number of reasons for preferring Holtz to Quinn.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I do not believe in the concept of a player either being a top-line player or nothing. That is not how the NHL functions at all. There may have been a time that it did, but I am skeptical. Top lines are not fundamentally different from the two lines underneath it, and there are very seldom players who cannot function without enormous support - these players are almost always replaced quickly anyway.

Now that obviously isn't to say that playing with Jack Hughes isn't different than playing with a 3rd line center, it is, but there aren't players who are put on top lines who cannot succeed on different lines. That does not exist.



Do you see how you've invented the logic here? This is your invention based on a putatively objective measurement of the two players. The Devils could've had any number of reasons for preferring Holtz to Quinn.

Holtz's skating/physical stuff were always a thing in draft year that people were worried about, you can't be a bottom 6 player in this league without either of those. Quinn, at his worst, would be still be an effective player in that spot because he's a very good skater not bulky like Holtz. That's why I brought up Jack Quinn. Holtz was boom or bust from day 1 with how he played and in a draft where they had 3 picks, it's fine to do something like that.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I think that's part of the discussion though, I'm guessing the Ducks don't think they left better players on the table. I'm guessing they believe they took the best fit from a bunch of players all generally in the same tier.

Drafting is hard and an inexact science but I don't belive teams sit around very often going "scouts, don't get me the best player, fill a future NHL need instead". For me, I think fans believe players when drafted have a hard number and tier while NHL teams think the tiers are broader, reflecting how hard scouting and development is.

Maybe, maybe not. I have a hard time thinking they thought Demidov was a worse player than Sennecke and were just afraid of the possible flight risk and worried if he'd come to Anaheim any time soon. Michkov did that just the year prior and he fell to Philly, stuff like this happens in drafts all the time.

 

[Andre Palot]

The talent is there, but it’s an interesting comment for a guy who struggled at 3C for multiple seasons.

However, it is worth wondering if Mercer would look better at C on a team structured differently than the Devils. If Mercer was able to slot in at 2C with Bratt and Tatar on his wings, maybe he finds it much easier to be effective. Instead, he’s having to be the offensive force between some middle-6 veterans going 70% speed for most of the regular season.

Legitimately forgot about Tatar tbh.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Legitimately forgot about Tatar tbh.

Is @Better Call Sal the keeper of that Tatar gif that needs to be replied here

 

[Jersey Fresh]

If we drafted for need, they wouldn’t have taken Nemec.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Legitimately forgot about Tatar tbh.

Is @Better Call Sal the keeper of that Tatar gif that needs to be replied here

That would be @SJinNewJersey but given I'm the founding member of the Tatar Bazaar, I think I'm allowed to jump in.

 

[AfroThunder396]

They could've easily went with Jack Quinn then if that was the case. Holtz was a hand and glove fit with 2019-2020 Jack Hughes as a player. Not sure why people are up in arms about this, lmao.

I'm not trying to criticize you, I think I agree with like 90% of what you're saying. The Devils definitely wanted good wingers to play with their good centers, and they definitely wanted forwards who could score goals. They obviously envisioned Holtz being both of those things or they wouldn't have taken him.

But like, is he playing with Jack specifically, or is he playing with Nico? I don't really think the Devils brass would have cared either way as long as he's consistently potting +30 goals a season.

I think the most pressing issue at the time wasn't 'we need a guy to shoot the puck for Jack' but more 'we need skilled forwards of any sort because none of these guys aren't working.' We just traded Taylor Hall. Nico was struggling offensively, Wood had been trending down for some time. Bratt was still a huge question mark. Zacha couldn't score, McLeod couldn't score, Boqvist couldn't score. Jack just had the worst #1 overall rookie year in recent memory. Things were pretty dire on the offensive side.

I found this quote from Fitz at the draft:

“We just felt his upside was high because of what (Holtz) does,” GM Tom Fitzgerald said after drafting seventh, 18th and 20th in the Devils' first three-pick first round. “It’s hard to score goals in this league, and that’s what this kid projects to do. Then on top of it, you just get a little giddy when you think about the centers that he’s going to be able to play with.” Link.

Now, I read that as 'we have two really good young centers and Holtz should be effective with either of them.' But I could be wrong here.

I certainly agree with you that on paper 2019-2020 Jack Hughes had a terrible shot and probably would have benefitted from having a shoot-first winger to dish out assists to. But as you said, things change as young players develop. I just think it's a bit of a leap to look at Jack specifically when there's another #1 overall center on the roster who also isn't the strongest goal scorer in the world. Holtz made a lot of sense regardless of where they saw him slotting in.

Now that obviously isn't to say that playing with Jack Hughes isn't different than playing with a 3rd line center, it is, but there aren't players who are put on top lines who cannot succeed on different lines. That does not exist.

Jeff Skinner

 

[Camille the Eel]

There’s now hindsight in criticizing the 2020 draft.

But if we redrafted today I’d think Marco Rossi or Cole Perfetti too. There were plenty of people at the time who wanted Rossi when he unexpectedly fell open at #7.

Now that Lafrenière is developing, 2020 is shaping up as a monster draft. Stutzle, Raymond, the Defensemen already mentioned by others - it’s a damn good thing we got Mercer out of it or it would have ended up a huge disappointment for us and not to Fitz’s credit.

Who wouldn’t love to have Rossi here as center # 3 this upcoming season ?

 

[Guadana]

I wasn't talking about the first round necessarily although even Silyaev you could have argued for one of the other defensemen over him but they went high celling because of size, that's fine but the later rounds they definitely overdrafted on size and didn't even look at anyone who wasn't big.

Dickinson is big too. They like skills combo, mindset, experience. He was consensual pick. Like I said if this would be for needs first, it should be center. Silayev was half BPA half need. And the part of BPA is big(ironically).
Drafting big players isn’t a need thing, it’s more about vision.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I'm not trying to criticize you, I think I agree with like 90% of what you're saying. The Devils definitely wanted good wingers to play with their good centers, and they definitely wanted forwards who could score goals. They obviously envisioned Holtz being both of those things or they wouldn't have taken him.

But like, is he playing with Jack specifically, or is he playing with Nico? I don't really think the Devils brass would have cared either way as long as he's consistently potting +30 goals a season.

I think the most pressing issue at the time wasn't 'we need a guy to shoot the puck for Jack' but more 'we need skilled forwards of any sort because none of these guys aren't working.' We just traded Taylor Hall. Nico was struggling offensively, Wood had been trending down for some time. Bratt was still a huge question mark. Zacha couldn't score, McLeod couldn't score, Boqvist couldn't score. Jack just had the worst #1 overall rookie year in recent memory. Things were pretty dire on the offensive side.

I found this quote from Fitz at the draft:

Now, I read that as 'we have two really good young centers and Holtz should be effective with either of them.' But I could be wrong here.

I certainly agree with you that on paper 2019-2020 Jack Hughes had a terrible shot and probably would have benefitted from having a shoot-first winger to dish out assists to. But as you said, things change as young players develop. I just think it's a bit of a leap to look at Jack specifically when there's another #1 overall center on the roster who also isn't the strongest goal scorer in the world. Holtz made a lot of sense regardless of where they saw him slotting in.


Jeff Skinner

That's probably a way better of putting it, any forward we drafted that high was probably gonna play with Jack/Nico anyway. Nico tends to work with anyone so the Jack situation seemed more dire at the time.

There’s now hindsight in criticizing the 2020 draft.

But if we redrafted today I’d think Marco Rossi or Cole Perfetti too. There were plenty of people at the time who wanted Rossi when he unexpectedly fell open at #7.

Now that Lafrenière is developing, 2020 is shaping up as a monster draft. Stutzle, Raymond, the Defensemen already mentioned by others - it’s a damn good thing we got Mercer out of it or it would have ended up a huge disappointment for us and not to Fitz’s credit.

Who wouldn’t love to have Rossi here as center # 3 this upcoming season ?

I wanted one of those guys regardless at the time, I wanted Rossi to build an absurd 3 headed monster down the middle and Perfetti was a good C/W to get.

 

[NjDevsRR]

That would be @SJinNewJersey but given I'm the founding member of the Tatar Bazaar, I think I'm allowed to jump in.

@SJinNewJersey my sincerest apologies

_______________________________

Still looking forward to what Keefe can do with our roster the most. The talent is there on offense. We have some depth bottom 6ers now and my goodness, that D roster looks beautiful which is where Keefe will shine.

Then two solid vet goaltenders behind all of that.


Im excited.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Still looking forward to what Keefe can do with our roster the most. The talent is there on offense. We have some depth bottom 6ers now and my goodness, that D roster looks beautiful which is where Keefe will shine.

Then two solid vet goaltenders behind all of that.


Im excited.

 

[Triumph]

Jeff Skinner

From 2014-15 to 2016-17, here are Skinner's top linemates (minimum 200 minutes):

Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Riley Nash, Derek Ryan, Lee Stempniak, Phil De Guiseppe, Chris Terry, Alex Semin, Jay McClement

Over this stretch, Skinner was 13th in the NHL in ES goals/60.

Going to have to disagree with this. Might be true now, wasn't true throughout much of his career, where he did not have top-line caliber linemates.