Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III
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OmNomNom
Taco is Love, Taco is Life
holtz likes bananas on his pizza
TIL swedes like bannas on their pizza (apparently it's a thing)
TIL swedes like bannas on their pizza (apparently it's a thing)
glenwo2
JESPER BRATWURST
Will Holtz make the team this year?
Yay or Nay?
Everyone : "Yah."
None Shall Pass
Dano moisturizes
No I ignored them because they're optimistic to a fault.
Cap space is so, so premium this season; 12 teams already have 0 cap (For reference, 9 teams ended last season with 0 cap); 11 more couldn't afford his cap hit (Including Dallas in that count because they still have a big RFA to sign and removing us for obvious reasons). So that's 23 teams out of 32 total that won't grab him. Add us, and that's already 24 that are no-gos. 75% of the league either can't claim him or are trying to get rid of him.
From the rest of the list: Winnipeg, Ottawa, and Minnesota are trying to win, and claiming him would eat up too much of their remaining cap space. Chicago is straight up tanking with approx. $7.5 million of space; they won't waste half of that for free when they're trying to get assets for the rebuild. Detroit only has approx. $8M in space right now and whatever direction they're going in, it doesn't behoove them to waste 40%(ish) of it.
The teams with it are going to extort it for all it's worth, given that:
a) So many other teams don't have it and will need to shed cap to be compliant, let alone ADD at the deadline and such, and
b) the 2023 Draft is touted to be the best in a long-ish time, so these teams can exploit this shortage for high draft currency.
No GM with half a brain will do us that favor for free when they can get a first or second round pick at the deadline to facilitate player movement. Which means that it will happen because there are plenty of morons on that list. Maybe you're right.
But still, if I were one of the three GMs with tons of cap space, I'd be charging those 12 teams extortionately high prices to use my cap space. I wouldn't give it away for free to claim Johnsson, regardless of how much his salary is.
SJinNewJersey
Every single one of us, the devil inside
Eggtimer
Registered User
That list is trash. At the very very least Hughes is 5-10…EP Rinkside has Nemec, Holtz, and Hughes rated as the NHL's 18th, 16th, and 15th best prospects.
Ranking the NHL's top 100 affiliated prospects in 2022: Skaters 25-1
The Elite Prospects affiliated skater prospects ranking countdown comes to an end with J.D. Burke's writeup on the 25 best prospects yet to establish themselves as full-time NHLers.eprinkside.com
Maybe, just maybe, the guy who can be moved is Wood. If NJ thinks he's iffy and some team out there remembers the pre-injury Wood maybe they move him?
Edit: Some teams may have some room with LTIR once the season starts. At 50% off with a coupon, Johnsson may be moveable? He has the limited trade clause but at that point they might threaten him with Utica?
Yeah, that one is out there. EP was very high on Nazar pre-draft, so it's not that surprising though. They essentially rated Nazar equal to Cooley.
I don't really get the commentary that any ranking anyone disagrees with is some kind of "agenda". Prospects are volatile and asking any individual scout or looking at team lists would reveal some "out there" rankings. I would rate Hughes higher, but EP has been consistently very high on Jiricek (IIRC they rated him #2 in the draft), so his ranking is not really surprising from them.
I'm not as high on Edvinsson either. But I wouldn't factor the WJC into the evaluation. Small sample size and evidently he was quite sick before the tournament. He had quite a strong season in the SHL.
I mean yeah, sure.
Mgd31
Registered User
You are looking at this like money doesn't exist, and the fact is that it does, teams (especially Arizona, but also Anaheim) are concerned about money. While some teams do need to move salary to open the season, there's not a lot of them that do, and extortion is going to be challenging - most teams made their moves in the offseason and don't need additional moves.
Johnsson is desirable because of money. He might pass through waivers - I'd put it at 60% he gets claimed, 40% he doesn't - but that savings is likely too much to pass up.
FascinationStreet
Registered User
- Dec 6, 2021
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well i can't argue with that, sure its volatile. But as you said, being consistently high on Jiricek could be interpreted as an agenda, when it was so painfully obvious how much better Luke looked than him. That writer may want to continue being certain on a player even after they've been outperformed. I don't want to be anyone who thinks the WJC is an end all be all on any player either so I concede that debating these rankings with that tournament in mind is futile. But I can't deny what my eyes witnessed. Luke looked like a really really freakin good skater, puck handler, play driver. cutting through opposition, making passes, making sh*t happen.
Jiricek looked like a completely irrelevant player on the czech defense. I noticed the size and that was it.
Food poisoning? what can I say. I've had it. Won't deny its awful. But still is there nothing to be said with a little bit of eye test and awareness even if you're ill? He was "well" enough to be dressed in the game so its possible it wasn't bothering him that much? Who knows. I didn't see anything to indicate he'd be a game breaker the way luke was showing off. Again, I noticed his size and remember him making some defensive mistakes in the USA game.
I'm no expert just my opinion
If you've been consistently high on a player, I wouldn't call not changing your opinion after one small sample size tournament an "agenda". If it's been years, then yeah, there's probably some bias there.
I think Hughes is a better prospect than Jiricek/Edvinsson, but there are defensible arguments the other way. I wouldn't call them crazy rankings.
Well did you stay at a Holiday Inn last night?
- May 1, 2011
- 133,224
- 62,572
I FINALLY went down the advanced goalie stat rabbit hole and have been on evolving hockey checking out goals saved above expected stats for the last hour or two.
Really got sucked in.
I'll post more later, but if we are to believe those stats, this team did not in fact play worse for most of the goalies than they should have.
Although, the team did seem to hurt Scott Wedgewood the most (who only played 3 games here) in 21-22 and it hurt Hammond a little bit, but much less than Wedgewood. He also had a very limited number of games played here, though still over twice as many games/minutes as Wedgewood did here in 21-22.
ALL of Blackwood, Bernier, Gillies, Daws and Schmid should have played slightly better than the league average save percentage if we're going by those stats. Schmid should have been a .916%, (correct me if I didn't run those numbers right) but he too played very limited minutes and games. Which may skew things on each end for him, Wedgewood and Hammond.
Like I said, I gotta run. I'll talk more about this a little later tonight.
Really got sucked in.
I'll post more later, but if we are to believe those stats, this team did not in fact play worse for most of the goalies than they should have.
Although, the team did seem to hurt Scott Wedgewood the most (who only played 3 games here) in 21-22 and it hurt Hammond a little bit, but much less than Wedgewood. He also had a very limited number of games played here, though still over twice as many games/minutes as Wedgewood did here in 21-22.
ALL of Blackwood, Bernier, Gillies, Daws and Schmid should have played slightly better than the league average save percentage if we're going by those stats. Schmid should have been a .916%, (correct me if I didn't run those numbers right) but he too played very limited minutes and games. Which may skew things on each end for him, Wedgewood and Hammond.
Like I said, I gotta run. I'll talk more about this a little later tonight.
theoptimist
Trade Siegenthaler
- Apr 22, 2014
- 5,037
- 2,750
None Shall Pass
Dano moisturizes
I know the money exists, I'm just saying its irrelevant. Sure, maybe the Coyotes are enticed. But they're already above the cap floor, and do they really need another 3rd liner? Especially one who will probably be unhappy to be there after being waived.
The salary itself is about all that he has going for him. His cap hit for his play is an anchor. Nobody is going to move mountains to claim Johnsson on waivers.
It'd kinda have to be that, since, as can be inferred, I don't think waivers will be it.
Maybe NJ can send out Johnsson for a worse guy making real $1.5 mil or something? NJ saves $2 mil cap the other team upgrades a bit and the team saves $750k?
They are above the cap floor now. What if they want to trade Gostisbehere? Or Crouse? Or anyone? This gives them the latitude to trade anyone and can save them ~$1M at season's end, for basically free.
Johnsson would be Arizona's 5th or 6th best forward.
No one is moving any mountains. I never implied anybody would. All they would do is pick him when he is waived. That is not mountain-moving.
- Dec 1, 2019
- 5,272
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I'd rather no ads at all but at least this blends in better than those blue prudential ads on the white helmets...
- May 1, 2011
- 133,224
- 62,572
To add to the expected goals saved stuff, Blackwood has been a negative every year he's been in the NHL, although it wasn't by much his first two years. Not even a full goal below expected. It was something like -0,58 and -0.47 or something like that. It's been a couple of hours since I looked.
It was a -9 something in 20-21 and a -11 something last year.
Once again, I just got in from my evening walk and read these a couple hours ago, so I could be slightly off and only have memory to go off of.
By performing the way they were expected to, Bernier would have been I think a .908%, Blackwood would have been a .911% and Gillies would have been either a .909% or .911%. I forget. Either way, league average was .907%.
Hammond would have been a .904%, Wedgewood would have been an .895% and Schmid would have been a .916%.
Wedgewood did have to play 2 pretty higher scoring teams in Washington and Calgary for 2 of his 3 games here. Hammond did have the one game against Florida (where I clearly a remember a natural soft goal bakers hat trick in that game, but I'll leave my data out of that) and he did also play Colorado (who he didn't perform that badly against) in one of his games.
Unfortunately, Vanecek had a -7.58 for 20-21 and a -2.76 for 21-22. Not nearly as bad as most of the Devils goalies of the last 2 years.
This is just more data to disprove that Ruff's system (this is not a vote of confidence for Ruff from me, I still firmly believe he needs to go soon and I firmly believe he will, barring very good results, especially with Brunette being brought in) or our ''Bad D'', team defense or otherwise were not really destroying the goalies stats, other than limited games of Hammond by just a little bit and a very limited set of games for Wedgewood by more than just a little bit.
This stat does account for bad teams and there are goalies who fared okay or had a positive, but had a negative save percentage and vice versa. Jake Allen was just under the league average save percentage, but saved +2.98 more goals than expected. Matt Murray was also just under the league average in save percentage, but saved 3.79 more goals than expected.
It was a -9 something in 20-21 and a -11 something last year.
Once again, I just got in from my evening walk and read these a couple hours ago, so I could be slightly off and only have memory to go off of.
By performing the way they were expected to, Bernier would have been I think a .908%, Blackwood would have been a .911% and Gillies would have been either a .909% or .911%. I forget. Either way, league average was .907%.
Hammond would have been a .904%, Wedgewood would have been an .895% and Schmid would have been a .916%.
Wedgewood did have to play 2 pretty higher scoring teams in Washington and Calgary for 2 of his 3 games here. Hammond did have the one game against Florida (where I clearly a remember a natural soft goal bakers hat trick in that game, but I'll leave my data out of that) and he did also play Colorado (who he didn't perform that badly against) in one of his games.
Unfortunately, Vanecek had a -7.58 for 20-21 and a -2.76 for 21-22. Not nearly as bad as most of the Devils goalies of the last 2 years.
This is just more data to disprove that Ruff's system (this is not a vote of confidence for Ruff from me, I still firmly believe he needs to go soon and I firmly believe he will, barring very good results, especially with Brunette being brought in) or our ''Bad D'', team defense or otherwise were not really destroying the goalies stats, other than limited games of Hammond by just a little bit and a very limited set of games for Wedgewood by more than just a little bit.
This stat does account for bad teams and there are goalies who fared okay or had a positive, but had a negative save percentage and vice versa. Jake Allen was just under the league average save percentage, but saved +2.98 more goals than expected. Matt Murray was also just under the league average in save percentage, but saved 3.79 more goals than expected.
Billdo
Registered User
I love the story and it's not some huge corporate nonsense. I dig it.
I definitely like it, Don't mind the advertisement as much if its local instead of some Global Mega-Corperation
None Shall Pass
Dano moisturizes
I'm saying that most of the league would have to move mountains to claim him, which none of them would, to make the point that there's not a lot of cap space sellers out there. And those teams that need to make cap room, of which there are many, are going to paying those cap space-having teams lots of assets to bail them out. Why would anyone do us a free favor when other teams will be paying handsomely? Arizona could probably get a sweet draft pick for the likes of a Lucic. The Coyotes can hit the cap floor, if needed, at will by calling any GM in the league right now and asking for an overpaid player that they want and a 3rd round pick.
I also don't think Arizona is going to be trading Ghost because they traded for him as a cap dump and he's one of a handful of decent players on their defense, but also because no one else would want him (He has cleared waivers) or could afford his cap (barring retention from Arizona, who would likely want to save retention spots for Chychrun et al at the deadline. They also just signed Crouse for 5 years a month ago, they won't be trading him.)
Only one team gets to claim Johnsson on waivers, not seven. I feel compelled to point this out because you keep explaining the league like every team is in the same position. The Sabres took on Johnny Boychuk's LTIR hit for free last season when a bunch of teams were capped out and wouldn't've wanted to do that. I am arguing that there are 3 teams who would have interest in Johnsson, maybe 2 others (Detroit, Chicago), and then 26 others who would have absolutely no interest. Chicago, btw, would take him because they're likely going to try to move Kane and Toews, and though they likely will have to take significant money back in those deals and retain at 50%, maybe they won't. But yes, Chicago is a big longshot.
There are not many. Yes, if you go to CapFriendly, boy it sure looks like these teams have to move players, but if you go deeper, almost all of them will have players going on LTIR. The Habs are fine, Vegas is fine, Tampa might have to move some money but not a lot (they could waive Phillipe Myers to make this happen), the Oilers are going to start the year with 21 guys, Washington has Backstrom going on LTIR, Florida might have some issues but Duclair will be on LTIR, Canucks are fine, Hurricanes are fine, Flyers are fine, Boston is fine, Toronto likely has to make a minor cut, Pittsburgh might have to also. Everyone else who is close might have issues but they seem fine right now, including New Jersey.
That overpaid player costs actual money. That's the thing that you are consistently overlooking - this isn't NHL22, this is real life, and real owners have real money problems and actually have budgets, and a 3rd round pick doesn't make up for added expenditure. Lucic has a 20 team NTC, he's not going anywhere near Arizona.
There is a massive difference when a player has 2 years remaining on his contract and when he is a trade deadline rental. I doubt the Coyotes fetch much for Gostisbehere, and they might not even get anything, but the situations are not analogous at all. Signing Crouse for 5 years means nothing for a franchise in as big a transition as the Coyotes are.
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