Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part I

[Call Me Al]

If the East and more specifically the Metro sucks this bad next year we don't have to do anything but stay healthy to make the playoffs next year.

As horrible as this team was this year, and they were horrible, we still have more wins than the 3rd place team in the Metro. Stay healthy, play a better brand of hockey, try to reduce the exposure of some of young D a little more... that's it. Off course add the necessary role players on the cheap, but I wouldn't risk busting the budget to add players...

This team has to show that its key players can get the job done and take the team to the next level. Next year should be about challenging those key players to take another step forward and if they can't, the team needs a major overhaul.

this is the most sensible post here

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Fair but who says he doesn’t? Hard for only 1 player to do that/change the team mindset on his own.

I think that's kind of the argument though. If that one player can't make a difference in the leadership aspect, why is he getting paid extra for that part?

 

[Call Me Al]

also re: palat, i think a lot of things can be true - i don’t think he’s worth his contract, i think that his production in the regular season has been very disappointing regardless of what advanced stats say, and i think his “veteran presence” and impact as a proven winner is overstated seeing as this was the most mentally weak devils team i’ve ever seen. however i think that he can and should earn his contract in the playoffs and showed that last year, so a lot of this is handwringing over small picture things when signing him is a big picture thing to help elevate the team when it counts.

the one goal he created against the rangers in game 7 should earn him a big pass. his play is not the reason this team is making or missing the playoffs and his contract is not a reason why we can or can’t sign an additional difference maker

 

[My3Sons]

but it HAS been working in Colorado -- it's not the yelling moreso than the team needing to give a crap about doing well. good leadership (be it players, coaches, or GMs) hold everyone to a higher standard. AGAIN, no idea what's really said in locker room, but I really do wish we'd see a bit more passion

Last year they were third in the regular season with the same leadership group. I'm not sure what to take from this season with so many things going wrong. They lost a bunch of depth after last season, Vitek imploded, they had tons of significant injuries, and Ruff seemed pretty stubborn about how he wanted the team to play when it clearly wasn't working. Of course the leadership matters, but the core group all had solid seasons when healthy. If anything , the team has to learn how to cheat to win. They want to skate and cheat for offense. What would help is if they clutch grab hold interfere and hit guys in the back the way the old and slow teams do to stay competitive. That's less a leadership thing and more an experience thing.

 

[Unknown Caller]

also re: palat, i think a lot of things can be true - i don’t think he’s worth his contract, i think that his production in the regular season has been very disappointing regardless of what advanced stats say, and i think his “veteran presence” and impact as a proven winner is overstated seeing as this was the most mentally weak devils team i’ve ever seen. however i think that he can and should earn his contract in the playoffs and showed that last year, so a lot of this is handwringing over small picture things when signing him is a big picture thing to help elevate the team when it counts.

In a hard cap league, contract value is everything. Palat is not a useless player, but he's not remotely worth $6 million aav over 5 years and it was obvious he wasn't worth that when he signed. It was a reactionary pivot resulting from the Gaudreau miss. They could have been way more intelligent with how they reallocated that $6 million for other player(s) who could provide excess value.

The playoff experience thing is stupid too. He had some huge goals playing with Stamkos and Kucherov on one of the best cap era rosters ever, but that doesn't mean he's going to have those moments as a 35/36 year old. They basically paid a premium for past playoff memories that won't likely be replicated.

 

[JimEIV]

Last year they were third in the regular season with the same leadership group. I'm not sure what to take from this season with so many things going wrong. They lost a bunch of depth after last season, Vitek imploded, they had tons of significant injuries, and Ruff seemed pretty stubborn about how he wanted the team to play when it clearly wasn't working. Of course the leadership matters, but the core group all had solid seasons when healthy. If anything , the team has to learn how to cheat to win. They want to skate and cheat for offense. What would help is if they clutch grab hold interfere and hit guys in the back the way the old and slow teams do to stay competitive. That's less a leadership thing and more an experience thing.

I don't think it's the same leadership group at all...Dougie and Damon aren't insignificant...if you go back to last year, Severson was an obvious voice he was often available to the media and taking tough questions... I have feeling Dougie keeps the room loose and calm...

I don't think you can lose players like Dougie, Damon and to a lesser extent Graves without consequences. This board has been working overtime to down play those missing pieces but I think the product we watched this season compared to last is directly related to those specific loses coupled with less depth at forward.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Brendan Smith played 60 games, Chris Tierney played 50 games, we've had Shane Bowers and Nick DeSimone and Max Williman and something named Samuel Laberge play for us this season and we were pretty damned close to being a cap team the day the season opened.

Depth pieces that we so sorely missed? Depth defenseman? Henrique and Hall were cheap and available because of how many cap-strung teams there were before the season started. Maybe Fitz coul'dve addressed the physicality/youth/leadership concerns with an RoR contract offer? Or maybe the extra $6m in cap space makes Fitz feel more comfortable in adding Helle in the offseason?

There are a million answers to this question, all of which are significantly better than "3 more years of an 11-goal scoring $6m winger who misses a quarter of every year".


Since literally nobody has come out and said "Palat is such a big voice for us in the locker room" a single time, it's safe to say he's just a passenger.

Hellebyuck was never getting traded and if he did, thank god we didnt give a 30+ year old goalie 8 years. Henrique didnt get traded until the TDL. Hall? Taylor Hall? thats who we're talking about? lol.

the point is, once the money was available from Hamilton going on LTIR, we didnt use basically any of it.

complaining about Palat is just super weird. I don't even like the guy that much, but the point remains. Like I said, when basically all of our top forwards are underpaid, one guy being overpaid by $1-2 million is not a big deal, and not really worth incessantly bitching about.

 

[My3Sons]

I don't think it's the same leadership group at all...Dougie and Damon aren't insignificant...if you go back to last year, Severson was an obvious voice he was often available to the media and taking tough questions... I have feeling Dougie keeps the room lose and calm...

I don't think you can lose players like Dougie, Damon and to a lesser extent Graves without consequences. This board has been working overtime to down play those missing pieces but I think the product we watched this season compared to last is directly related to those specific loses couple with less depth at forward.

In an earlier post you said the leadership group to be held accountable are Jack, Nico, Bratt, Meier (not sure if that was all of them)? I think missing the talent of Dougie, Sevs, and even Graves is a bigger loss than their leadership. Imagine having a healthy Dougie and Severson. They could have let Nemec percolate another season with some call ups instead of forcing him to play first pair minutes at times. Marino would be able to play some third pair minutes when he's struggling. Graves lessens Smith's workload and pushes Bahl or Siegnthaler to a third pair.

 

[Omar Little]

I think Palat would work with Jack if he is complemented by a speedier shoot first "grinder" (like a Hagel, Stephenson, Coleman, etc.).

Alternatively he's very well positioned alongside Haula on our 3rd line.

Bratt-Hischier-Meier should be a line next year.

 

[Guadana]

Its fun how Palat can play mind games with people. We played with half of free cap space. Palat was good defensively. He was hired for that. We needs more "Palats". His cap space will hurt when it will hurt. It didnt previous season, it didnt this season. It will not hurt us next season. As I remember everybody talked about potential problems for the last two years.

This deal is ok because Palat is doing what he actually needs to do and this cap isnt hurt. Just move on. There are no NHL teams with perfect points per dollar 23 NHL deals. Until everything is fine with the cap - everything is fine. Of course it would be better if he would score more goals. His offensive impact isnt worth his money. His defensive impact worth it. Until we have no problem with cap, we dont have problems with Palat deal.

Helle wasnt an option at all, Palat deal has nothing with his new deal. Jets tried to compete and save everybody they could save.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Palat is certainly not great value on his contract, but some of the names thrown around as potential “heavy” hard to play against guys will likely get deals they aren’t worth too (I’m thinking Trenin, Joshua, maybe Foegele). It’s hard to find guys that play that way without dipping into free agency, which almost never results in good value.

Sure, if I could wipe away that contract I probably would. But I still consider him a good player and he brings elements we have nowhere else in the lineup. If we didn’t have a Palat, we’d need to get one, and what does that cost in 2024?

 

[Triumph]

Brendan Smith played 60 games, Chris Tierney played 50 games, we've had Shane Bowers and Nick DeSimone and Max Williman and something named Samuel Laberge play for us this season and we were pretty damned close to being a cap team the day the season opened.

Depth pieces that we so sorely missed? Depth defenseman? Henrique and Hall were cheap and available because of how many cap-strung teams there were before the season started. Maybe Fitz coul'dve addressed the physicality/youth/leadership concerns with an RoR contract offer? Or maybe the extra $6m in cap space makes Fitz feel more comfortable in adding Helle in the offseason?

There are a million answers to this question, all of which are significantly better than "3 more years of an 11-goal scoring $6m winger who misses a quarter of every year".

Henrique was not available for cheap at the beginning of the season and he was ultimately traded for a 1st round pick. Funny to mention injuries and then lament that the Devils didn't get Taylor Hall, a chronically injured player who lasted 10 games this season. RoR would've never signed here. Hellebuyck wasn't available at all.

Which is to say that getting involved with players this age always involves more risk, and Palat is about right down the middle vis a vis outcomes. He has provided everything the team has wanted at the micro level, but it'd be nice if he could stay healthy and/or score a few more goals. That's about it. He's probably worth around $4M, $5M if he could play all 82.

Since literally nobody has come out and said "Palat is such a big voice for us in the locker room" a single time, it's safe to say he's just a passenger.

He's not a passenger. His territorial numbers are consistently better than his linemates. The Devils could use more players like Palat, not less.

 

[ndkjr70]

Henrique was not available for cheap at the beginning of the season and he was ultimately traded for a 1st round pick. Funny to mention injuries and then lament that the Devils didn't get Taylor Hall, a chronically injured player who lasted 10 games this season. RoR would've never signed here. Hellebuyck wasn't available at all.

Which is to say that getting involved with players this age always involves more risk, and Palat is about right down the middle vis a vis outcomes. He has provided everything the team has wanted at the micro level, but it'd be nice if he could stay healthy and/or score a few more goals. That's about it. He's probably worth around $4M, $5M if he could play all 82.



He's not a passenger. His territorial numbers are consistently better than his linemates. The Devils could use more players like Palat, not less.

Consensus in the offseason was that Henrique could probably be had for a 3rd and a meh prospect if the Ducks weren't asked to retain. He was literally waived two seasons ago.

I don't know what the Devils should have done. I'm a residential architect, not a GM. But saying Palat's contract "doesn't matter anyway" because the Devils "wouldn't have done anything with his cap space anyway" is just blatantly incorrect.

EDIT: And I know that he's an analytical darling so you have to carve off a niche advanced stat to prove to yourself he's worth having, but I was saying he's a "passenger" in the locker room. Clearly not a leader.

 

[Guadana]

EDIT: And I know that he's an analytical darling so you have to carve off a niche advanced stat to prove to yourself he's worth having, but I was saying he's a "passenger" in the locker room. Clearly not a leader.

How many seconds you spent in the locker room to understand it?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

yeah, we can debate counting stats, and advanced stats, and systems, etc etc but when you definitively state "this guy isnt a leader" as if you have any idea, thats where the discussion should end.

None of us literally have no idea. Palat was lauded as a strong veteran presence on a Tampa team that frankly was a dynasty. But now a few years later he isn't a leader anymore?

 

[Bleedred]

Honestly, it will be like losing a TON of deadweight going into next year without Travis Green as head coach/Travis Green ENTIRELY off the staff.

I said many times this year before Ruff was fired that while I do not really want him back for next year, I think the roster is quite strong enough that if we were considerably more healthy next year, which it would be hard to be less healthy next year than we were this year, Ruff probably couldn't FUBAR next year's team to the point of missing the playoffs. Especially if we purge the team of Vitek and have his games replaced by someone competent, which Vitek could no longer be competent as a member of the Devils.

So I think a decent coach next year and a couple of bottom-6 improvements and one more goalie should get this team into the playoffs.

In case you aren't paying attention, there's gonna be at least two teams in this conference that are worse than the Devils who will make the playoffs.

The Capitals and Islanders are absolutely NO-COUNT. Same goes for Detroit and the Flyers have done a masterful job at returning to no-count no-count land in the last couple of weeks, where they rightfully should have been the entire year.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Consensus in the offseason was that Henrique could probably be had for a 3rd and a meh prospect if the Ducks weren't asked to retain. He was literally waived two seasons ago.

I don't know what the Devils should have done. I'm a residential architect, not a GM. But saying Palat's contract "doesn't matter anyway" because the Devils "wouldn't have done anything with his cap space anyway" is just blatantly incorrect.

EDIT: And I know that he's an analytical darling so you have to carve off a niche advanced stat to prove to yourself he's worth having, but I was saying he's a "passenger" in the locker room. Clearly not a leader.

The funny thing is that Palat was never really looked at as an analytical darling. He was always a guy the “eye test” people loved, did all the little things, had the “clutch gene”. The little things he’s doing this year just happen to be translating very well to scoring chance prevention and creation. Nothing about the numbers you can pull up are particularly niche — very basic stuff.

 

[Triumph]

Consensus in the offseason was that Henrique could probably be had for a 3rd and a meh prospect if
the Ducks weren't asked to retain. He was literally waived two seasons ago.

Consensus was almost certainly wrong. He was waived two seasons ago and had two solid seasons since then.

I don't know what the Devils should have done. I'm a residential architect, not a GM. But saying Palat's contract "doesn't matter anyway" because the Devils "wouldn't have done anything with his cap space anyway" is just blatantly incorrect.

I agree in broad strokes that saying Palat's contract 'doesn't matter' is wrong, but it's very easy to do a lot worse with $6M than the Devils are doing with Palat. Palat is very low on my list of problems with the team this season. He's overpaid. Not by much, but he is.

EDIT: And I know that he's an analytical darling so you have to carve off a niche advanced stat to prove to yourself he's worth having, but I was saying he's a "passenger" in the locker room. Clearly not a leader.

He has an A on his jersey, someone thinks he's a leader.

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

Devils have $23m in cap space next season (2024-2025), with really only Mercer to worry about. For arguments sake lets say we give mercer something with a $6m cap hit (its a fair number for discussion here).

That leaves $17m for another goalie. Figure out what we do with Daws/ Schmid (who haven't earned much of a raise). Add some other dudes. Let's say we utilize $15m of our cap. ($2m in cap space remaining)

2025-2026 they have to figure out Holtz, Bahl and Luke Hughes.
Again, assuming we gave Mercer $6mm per, and an additional 15mm elsewhere... That leaves us with $12m in cap space for 2025-2026. The bulk of which would go to Hughes. If that ends up being not enough money for all 3 - then that is a good problem because that means Holtz and Bahl earned good contracts.

Let's say Palat is overpaid by $2m. Well, in the summer of 2025 you can look into a buyout. His cap hit would be $3.5. And if you wait to 2026 it drops to $2.7

Palat is overpaid. His contract is not good. But it is not an albatros and can be perfectly managed starting as early as June of 2025 should we feel it needed.

 

[Bleedred]

I was digging around the internet last night and found some article from last year before the Canucks traded Bo Horvat to the Islanders. The point of the article was that the Canucks as of that date were paying THREE coaches more than they were paying Bo Horvat last year.

Apparently, Travis Green was making $2.75 million!

TWO POINT SEVEN FIVE MILLION FOR A GUY THAT'S NEVER MADE THE PLAYOFFS IN A LEGITIMATE 82 GAME SEASON!

The Canucks gave Travis Green $2.75 million per in 2021? I bet they're still paying that this year, unless the contract was only for 2 years lol.

I CAN'T f***ING BELIEVE THAT! I thought for sure Green was making maybe $1.75-$2 million per at the absolute most. Apparently Rick Tocchet is making the same amount and I believe Boudreau was also, but I can't remember. Is $2.75 mllion some kind of FLAT RATE the Canucks give their head coaches? WHAT. THE. f***.

I'm looking at cap friendly and Bednar is only making $2.25 million (he's making more next year though when his extension kicks in) this year. Sheldon Keefe at $1.95 million for this year.

Don Granato is getting $1.9 million per right now on what is his second contract. Why did Green get THAT much on his second contract and not something closer to what Granato is getting?

Is that what it took to get him to commit and not listen to Ron Francis's offer in Seattle? Or is this a flat rate for the Canucks? ''You coach the Canucks, you get $2.75 million!''.

 

[Triumph]

One thing I know people aren't really doing mentally is adjusting for cap space. The cap has gone up only $12M in the last 11 seasons (it went down between 2013 and 2014, but still), after going up $31M between 2005 and 2013. It's about to shoot to the moon again.

Palat contract by % of cap per season, final seasons based on capfriendly estimate -

2022-23: 7.3%
2023-24: 7.2%
2024-25: 6.9%
2025-26: 6.5%
2026-27: 6.5%

And honestly I think capfriendly is being very cautious - revenues this season were estimated aorund $6 billion, this x .5 divided by 32 is the midpoint of the cap, which works out to 93.75M, which implies that the salary cap should already be at $101M. We have a very long way to go to get there which means that if things stay the same, the cap is going to jump $5M every year for the forseeable future.

 

[My3Sons]

I think Palat would work with Jack if he is complemented by a speedier shoot first "grinder" (like a Hagel, Stephenson, Coleman, etc.).

Alternatively he's very well positioned alongside Haula on our 3rd line.

Bratt-Hischier-Meier should be a line next year.

You'd think that squaring away a top six line would be obvious but Green monkeyed with the combos last game. Find Jack two guys to play with (hopefully one is Mercer next season) and leave Bratt Hischier Meier alone. Timo is obviously a bit of an adjustment to develop chemistry with and that line really clicked once they were all working as a unit. I'd prefer Haula and Palat on a third line if possible. They need some lesser matchups to win them more than as top six guys. You can add a third line winger and a complementary top six guy up front. Pity Gristyuk isn't coming over yet I could see him as a fit with Jack.

 

[Guttersniped]

Palat's money could be better used, probably. He was a net negative value this year but only by like 1.5M. It'll probably get worse, but that's not a contract that's killing you if the rest of the team is healthy and playing well.

When Palat’s contract happened I wished it was 1m less and/or 1 year shorter, (obviously) preferably both.

It would have been nice to get less AAV for a 5 year deal or less term for 6m but such is life.

We’ll probably have to buy out the last year of his deal which is possible because it conveniently has no bonuses that year.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

did we even need to lock the last GDT? do we even need one tonight? Who's excited for top line Graeme Clarke?!

 

[My3Sons]

did we even need to lock the last GDT? do we even need one tonight? Who's excited for top line Graeme Clarke?!

what happened to Bowers?