Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[Hisch13r]

The pairings might be interesting. You could play Hughes with Marino, but you want Marino on a “shutdown” pair. I thought about:

Luke - Dougie
Siegs - Marino
Bahl - Miller

but, I don’t think that’s going to be it. Ultimately, I could see:

Siegs - Dougie
Luke- Marino
Bahl - Miller

I've wanted to do these

Siegs-Dougie
Bahl-Marino
Luke-Miller

This is dependent on Bahl's ability to handle that shutdown role with Marino. If he can't then flip him with Siegs. If Bahl also can't handle a top 4 role with Dougie then go to the standard you have that everyone's expecting. Hopefully Bahl can handle one of those roles because I like the idea of having a shutdown pair. Also Miller can be that defensive guy people want next to Luke and I really like the idea of Luke getting to feast on a 3rd pair like Sevo got to do last year.

 

[Nubmer6]

I've wanted to do these

Siegs-Dougie
Bahl-Marino
Luke-Miller

This is dependent on Bahl's ability to handle that shutdown role with Marino. If he can't then flip him with Siegs. If Bahl also can't handle a top 4 role with Dougie then go to the standard you have that everyone's expecting. Hopefully Bahl can handle one of those roles because I like the idea of having a shutdown pair. Also Miller can be that defensive guy people want next to Luke and I really like the idea of Luke getting to feast on a 3rd pair like Sevo got to do last year.

I'm not so sure Miller is a defensive guy.

 

[Hisch13r]

I'm not so sure Miller is a defensive guy.

He's not like some standout shutdown guy but he's pretty good defensively and it's a 3rd pair. I don't think Luke needs like a Siegs or Marino level shutdown guy to succeed and definitely not if it's a 3rd pair

 

[Triumph]

I don't want to quote but it's extremely, extremely unlikely that the Devils would've picked Khusnutdinov and Knies with the 2 2nds they didn't have, and it is also extremely likely that had the Devils not traded those picks, they would've instead spent money on the free agent market that would still be on the books. There's no universe where the Devils go into 2019-20 without a spending spree - they had a ton of cap room, a 1st overall pick coming on to the roster, and a lot of holes on the roster.

So maybe they don't trade for Gusev, but they instead sign Gus Nyquist at 4/5.5m+ per. I don't know where they hoped to get an improvement on D - the D signed that offseason were Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot.

 

[Camille the Eel]

I really would not be shocked if Luke is our best overall defenseman on day 1. The track record of players that did what he did in the NCAA is amazing.

Agree. I will not be surprised to see him routinely logging more than 20 minutes a night in ice time. He will eventually QB the power play over Hamilton. Although I also think we will use Hamilton's one timer on the half boards. In other words they'll both play but it will be Luke handling the puck along the blue line at the top of the diamond and that will be a good thing. A few less shorties given up that way.

 

[Hisch13r]

Agree. I will not be surprised to see him routinely logging more than 20 minutes a night in ice time. He will eventually QB the power play over Hamilton. Although I also think we will use Hamilton's one timer on the half boards. In other words they'll both play but it will be Luke handling the puck along the blue line at the top of the diamond and that will be a good thing. A few less shorties given up that way.

I have a hard time seeing us using 2 D on PP1 with the forward talent we have. I think we'd be more likely to place Holtz or Toffoli at the left circle if they want a shot there or we keep Jack at the left circle and use Meier as the shooter at the right circle

 

[Camille the Eel]

I've wanted to do these

Siegs-Dougie
Bahl-Marino
Luke-Miller

This is dependent on Bahl's ability to handle that shutdown role with Marino. If he can't then flip him with Siegs. If Bahl also can't handle a top 4 role with Dougie then go to the standard you have that everyone's expecting. Hopefully Bahl can handle one of those roles because I like the idea of having a shutdown pair. Also Miller can be that defensive guy people want next to Luke and I really like the idea of Luke getting to feast on a 3rd pair like Sevo got to do last year.

it's definitely going to be an interesting season as to how we use our personnel. The line combinations and pairings, and the power play too. I think it's going to be very challenging for Ruff and the staff. Although game management of personnel is in my opinion, for better or worse, one of Ruff's biggest strengths.

 

[Whaddagoal]

Please. Talk to me when he works out with Kovy.

Unfortunately I don't see holtz there. But his wife....on the other hand....

 

[Hisch13r]

it's definitely going to be an interesting season as to how we use our personnel. The line combinations and pairings, and the power play too. I think it's going to be very challenging for Ruff and the staff. Although game management of personnel is in my opinion, for better or worse, one of Ruff's biggest strengths.

I don't think it'll be challenging in the slightest. There's just way too many good options for it to be in any way challenging. Even if it's not the ideal combos all the time they should still be really good ones. It's extremely hard to put together a realistic lineup for us where the combos are not good. The PK is the only area I could see issues but even then it should be fine. It comes down to Bahl being able to be a good PKer which he should be. If he can't then things get a little hairy but I just don't see how he's not good enough to at least be adequate. Also even if he's not then maybe we take him out and put in Smith who is a good PKer and perfectly fine bottom pair D

 

[Blackjack]

Didn’t realize that Makar was an old 2017. He’s nearly five years older than Luke, despite being drafted four years before him.

Not saying that Luke will be better than Makar as Makar took a massive leap in his d+2, but I think it’s correct to say that on an age adjusted basis, Luke is ahead of Makar.

 

[devilsblood]

but, I don’t think that’s going to be it. Ultimately, I could see:

Siegs - Dougie
Luke- Marino
Bahl - Miller

With some spots of Sieg's Marino in high leverage defensive situations.

Bahl stepping up as worthy of heavy defensive minutes would be big.

 

[Whaddagoal]

Starting to wonder if Holtz will even make the team. Will be a shame if after all these years he won't crack the lineup...

 

[Hisch13r]

Starting to wonder if Holtz will even make the team. Will be a shame if after all these years he won't crack the lineup...

If he doesn’t that’s a big hole at 3RW. I don’t want to write him off until he gets an actual shot. His AHL production for his age is really high end stuff. He’s gotten dicked hard around at the NHL level.

 

[devilsblood]

it's definitely going to be an interesting season as to how we use our personnel. The line combinations and pairings, and the power play too. I think it's going to be very challenging for Ruff and the staff. Although game management of personnel is in my opinion, for better or worse, one of Ruff's biggest strengths.

I think it's only challenging if neither Bahl or Luke can handle "heaveir" defensive roles.

If Bahl steps into that role it becomes pretty easy I think.

I'm not getting ahead of myself to think Luke can play heavy defensive minutes out of the gate, but if he is merely decent defensively while bringing the puck moving impact we expect, then we are in a pretty good spot. Even if Bahl looks to top out as a 3rd pairing guy.

 

[devilsblood]

Starting to wonder if Holtz will even make the team. Will be a shame if after all these years he won't crack the lineup...

Would not be shocked if Clarke beats him out to start the season.

Would love it if Holtz comes out flying and wins that spot though.

 

[Whaddagoal]

If he doesn’t that’s a big hole at 3RW. I don’t want to write him off until he gets an actual shot. His AHL production for his age is really high end stuff. He’s gotten dicked hard around at the NHL level.

Wish we saw more last season both from him and from the staff of him... He was dicked around a bit..true, but he didn't blow the doors off either, impression wise. Not sure what he needs to show to staple that spot for himself.

 

[Blackjack]

Wish we saw more last season both from him and from the staff of him... He was dicked around a bit..true, but he didn't blow the doors off either, impression wise. Not sure what he needs to show to staple that spot for himself.

He was tremendous with Hughes in the preseason and then never got that opportunity again. If he can produce with Hughes you can put Bratt or Meier (both of whom can drive a line) on the third line.

 

[forceten]

If he doesn’t that’s a big hole at 3RW. I don’t want to write him off until he gets an actual shot. His AHL production for his age is really high end stuff. He’s gotten dicked hard around at the NHL level.

I mean he's no Steve Brule.

 

[devilsblood]

Wish we saw more last season both from him and from the staff of him... He was dicked around a bit..true, but he didn't blow the doors off either, impression wise. Not sure what he needs to show to staple that spot for himself.

All about that pace, no treble.

 

[Aurinko]

I'm whatever on Miller. He did play with Heiskanen last year, so he must be able to handle reg season responsibilities, but was then benched in the playoffs.

If that pair finds success it's because of Luke.

I'm also not sure it will be Hughes Miller. I was thinking Bahl Miller. Interesting to see how that plays out though.

Bahl - Miller should be ok, Luke - Marino would definitely work.

Luke - Dougie could play out ok if Luke is covering Dougie's plays and not the other way around. I don't want to see Dougie on foot race vs. any of the younger forwards. Having two really talented D man shooters is already iffy. Bit like with Sharks when EK & Burns were in the same team. Putting them on the ice at the same time seems intuitively the worst combination. EK65 has done fantastic when he has someone to cover his plays. I think in Senators it was Methot, since without Methot he was making some league minus records.


Last year, just randomly handpicked some d-pair combinations that worked above their teams overall performance:

And few D-pairs that look to have not so great goals for vs. goals against ratio:

I have no idea how Girard-Makar can look this bad on paper, but it's not hard to guess that Provorov-Ristolainen might have had some defensive collapses. Vlasic-Karlsson seems on paper to be a solid defensive-offensive combo, but they didn't perform that well either compared to Karlssons other line combinations. With Methot Karlsson played (this is now really old stuff) a solid ~60% hockey for several years in row. That was a real balanced pair.

 

[Hisch13r]

Wish we saw more last season both from him and from the staff of him... He was dicked around a bit..true, but he didn't blow the doors off either, impression wise. Not sure what he needs to show to staple that spot for himself.

He looked good in camp since he was put in a position to succeed and then he never got that again once the season started. He didn't look amazing in season but I he's not a guy who ever will look all that good when his most common linemates are Yegor, McLeod, Wood, Boqvist. He and Bo actually posted really good numbers together. In 76 minutes they had a 57% CF and 59% xGF but obviously it wasn't the best situation for him to produce and that's what they want from him.

He got a total of 2:43 with Bratt, 12:28 with Nico, 13:36 with Jack. If he needs to be stapled to those guys 24/7 to be useful like Yegor did (he did produce really well with them though tbf) then that sucks but I'm not sure that's the case. I think there's a chance he could be a useful player on a 3rd line getting to face some easier matchups while playing with good 3rd line players like Palat and Haula. Last year he got 8:54 with Palat and 13:27 with Haula. He got no chances with good players. His best run with any good player was Mercer where he got 25:45. I don't think Mercer's a driver at least as of now and most of that time was spent with Yegor as the other guy who also needs to be with good players and is a bad stylistic mesh with Holtz.

I get last year they didn't want to give him a shot because it was their first time being competitive and didn't want to experiment much (I still think they should've kept H2O together to start though). Things are different to me now. There shouldn't be concerns about whether we're good or if the play will hold up. Those questions were answered. We CAN and we SHOULD experiment a bit now and give Holtz some actual real rope with good players. Maybe he takes some lumps along the way but don't just immediately demote him if that happens. Figure out what you actually have with him for better or for worse.

 

[Devs3cups]

He looked good in camp since he was put in a position to succeed and then he never got that again once the season started. He didn't look amazing in season but I he's not a guy who ever will look all that good when his most common linemates are Yegor, McLeod, Wood, Boqvist. He and Bo actually posted really good numbers together. In 76 minutes they had a 57% CF and 59% xGF but obviously it wasn't the best situation for him to produce and that's what they want from him.

He got a total of 2:43 with Bratt, 12:28 with Nico, 13:36 with Jack. If he needs to be stapled to those guys 24/7 to be useful like Yegor did (he did produce really well with them though tbf) then that sucks but I'm not sure that's the case. I think there's a chance he could be a useful player on a 3rd line getting to face some easier matchups while playing with good 3rd line players like Palat and Haula. Last year he got 8:54 with Palat and 13:27 with Haula. He got no chances with good players. His best run with any good player was Mercer where he got 25:45. I don't think Mercer's a driver at least as of now and most of that time was spent with Yegor as the other guy who also needs to be with good players and is a bad stylistic mesh with Holtz.

I get last year they didn't want to give him a shot because it was their first time being competitive and didn't want to experiment much (I still think they should've kept H2O together to start though). Things are different to me now. There shouldn't be concerns about whether we're good or if the play will hold up. Those questions were answered. We CAN and we SHOULD experiment a bit now and give Holtz some actual real rope with good players. Maybe he takes some lumps along the way but don't just immediately demote him if that happens. Figure out what you actually have with him for better or for worse.

 

[devilsblood]

He looked good in camp since he was put in a position to succeed and then he never got that again once the season started. He didn't look amazing in season but I he's not a guy who ever will look all that good when his most common linemates are Yegor, McLeod, Wood, Boqvist. He and Bo actually posted really good numbers together. In 76 minutes they had a 57% CF and 59% xGF but obviously it wasn't the best situation for him to produce and that's what they want from him.

He got a total of 2:43 with Bratt, 12:28 with Nico, 13:36 with Jack. If he needs to be stapled to those guys 24/7 to be useful like Yegor did (he did produce really well with them though tbf) then that sucks but I'm not sure that's the case. I think there's a chance he could be a useful player on a 3rd line getting to face some easier matchups while playing with good 3rd line players like Palat and Haula. Last year he got 8:54 with Palat and 13:27 with Haula. He got no chances with good players. His best run with any good player was Mercer where he got 25:45. I don't think Mercer's a driver at least as of now and most of that time was spent with Yegor as the other guy who also needs to be with good players and is a bad stylistic mesh with Holtz.

I get last year they didn't want to give him a shot because it was their first time being competitive and didn't want to experiment much (I still think they should've kept H2O together to start though). Things are different to me now. There shouldn't be concerns about whether we're good or if the play will hold up. Those questions were answered. We CAN and we SHOULD experiment a bit now and give Holtz some actual real rope with good players. Maybe he takes some lumps along the way but don't just immediately demote him if that happens. Figure out what you actually have with him for better or for worse.

Playing vs preseason competition was the "position to succeed".

Holtz literally had the worst #'s on the team last year, but somehow the stat guys wanted him to play more vs tougher competition.

 

[forceten]

I don't think it's fair to say he's had a full shot. There are many players in the NHL who were highly drafted who had a full season to play, or two, or three, before that tag was placed on them. He's had sporadic time with lower quality players. I don't know about his numbers because I'm old and I also fear the numbers 3 and 8 because they're so similar yet hate each other, but he showed some interesting aspects of his game in limited time such as passing well and digging pucks out from corners walls and behind the net. Probably also his couches.

 

[Devs3cups]

Just guys being dudes