Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[Devs3cups]

 

[forceten]

Hey, Alex is putting the work in. I'm liking that.

The other random thought that keeps popping into my mind is that this will be Luke's first year, so I temper my enthusiasm, but it's not ridiculous to think there's a chance he's better than Jack in a few years. I like him that much right now.

 

[Hisch13r]

Hey, Alex is putting the work in. I'm liking that.

The other random thought that keeps popping into my mind is that this will be Luke's first year, so I temper my enthusiasm, but it's not ridiculous to think there's a chance he's better than Jack in a few years. I like him that much right now.

In his draft year the EP guys raved about his work ethic and said everyone they talked to that knew him said the same. If he doesn’t work out it won’t be for a lack of effort.

I’ve always thought that’s ridiculous. Jack’s in that 2nd tier of centers right after McDavid and on any given year could be the 2nd best player in the world. Luke’s great. Jack’s on another plane of existence

 

[Better Call Sal]

If we're looking at 50 as the baseline we should hit that. 7 teams did it last year. 9 the year before. 10 on pace in the wacky bubble year.

Expectations like this can also be dangerous. As others have mentioned, a lot of things went right for us last year that you can't assume we can be in control of this year. We were largely injury free aside from a period of time without Jack. Having a 13 game win streak likely will be difficult to pull off again. We also won't be catching any teams off-guard this year as we may have last year. All it takes is 1 month to make things a tighter, more dire situation again. People were jumping off a cliff here in December.

I'm all for raising the bar, but I also treat each season as a separate entity. There's far too much parity in the league to think 50 wins season after season is the measuring stick. The key is getting to the dance and having the roster to make noise in the playoffs. That is something I certainly feel that we have.

 

[Hisch13r]

Expectations like this can also be dangerous. As others have mentioned, a lot of things went right for us last year that you can't assume we can be in control of this year. We were largely injury free aside from a period of time without Jack. Having a 13 game win streak likely will be difficult to pull off again. We also won't be catching any teams off-guard this year as we may have last year. All it takes is 1 month to make things a tighter, more dire situation again. People were jumping off a cliff here in December.

I'm all for raising the bar, but I also treat each season as a separate entity. There's far too much parity in the league to think 50 wins season after season is the measuring stick. The key is getting to the dance and having the roster to make noise in the playoffs. That is something I certainly feel that we have.

Our record the last 41 was better than the firs 41. We weren't just "catching teams off guard". If 8ish teams are winning 50 games then 50 games is a perfectly fine benchmark. This team should definitely be a top 8 team.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Our record the last 41 was better than the firs 41. We weren't just "catching teams off guard". If 8ish teams are winning 50 games then 50 games is a perfectly fine benchmark. This team should definitely be a top 8 team.

My point ultimately is that I don't personally put a ton of stock into preseason predictions/expectations, etc. No one expected us to finish where we did last year.

The season is long and full of different hurdles. How the team navigates them if/when they come is more important than anything. Do I think we have a team capable of finishing that high? Of course. This is one of the deepest Devils rosters I've seen on paper. I hope everyone who sets the bar there is right.

 

[Blackjack]

To me these are mostly likely to happen and some of them aren’t even questions that cross my mind. Injuries are obviously the thing that could change that since we got pretty lucky last year but that’s something everyone faces and it’s unpredictable. It’s more likely Jack tops 100 than dips under 90. Nico ending up somewhere between like 75-85 makes sense to me. Maybe Luke gvies you a bit less than Sevo did but I think he can be comparable enough. I think we’ll lose some playdriving with Toffoli instead of Tatar but also gain some production. Also a full year of Meier

I don’t know if Holtz is a top 6er but he also doesn’t need to be since we already have 6 guys that are great and another 2 who can be serviceable enough in a pinch. As long he as can produce at a competent 3rd line level this year it’d be fine. I don’t know with Foote but even if he doesn’t and McLeod’s banished I think the 4th line can be decent. I really like Nosek-Bastian as a 4th line defensive duo. One of Tierney/Lazar should work as the 3rd guy.

A thing I’ll throw in as a potential negative is Schmid. He could be good again and he could also be a disaster again. If he’s not good or there’s a goalie injury then that’s a big issue. I don’t feel confident at all in Daws or Kallgren. I’d like Halak as the 2/3. Sure the wheels could fall off at his age but he’s pretty much always decent

Yeah, I agree, I should have been more clear that outside of injury I expect all of those things (except the Holtz one, which I’m neutral on) to happen. But down years happen too and I just wouldn’t be surprised to see one of those players have one.

I also think Holtz, Bratt, and Luke could all outperform what they or the player they’re replacing did last year, so there’s upside too.

 

[Devs3cups]

All it takes is 1 month to make things a tighter, more dire situation again. People were jumping off a cliff here in December.

Lmfao, this place was brutal for that short period of time. Hopefully, people remember that period if we go on a losing streak (it most likely will happen, it does for everyone).

 

[Better Call Sal]

Lmfao, this place was brutal for that short period of time. Hopefully, people remember that period if we go on a losing streak (it most likely will happen, it does for everyone).

Oh, if it happens this year now that expectations are higher? Head for the hills.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Our roster is stacked at forward and promising but with less depth on defense and also in goal. If Luke Hughes develops fast the upside is immense.

The big caution is that the competition across the entire eastern conference is tougher. It will be hard to sweep
Ottawa again, they are a fast deep club and will be challenging if they learn how to play. Detroit may well be better. Buffalo tougher than last year. Washington back from its last year swoon at least a bit maybe. Besides the usual other suspects. 104 points may win the division next year instead of 113.

 

[Aurinko]

My point ultimately is that I don't personally put a ton of stock into preseason predictions/expectations, etc. No one expected us to finish where we did last year.

The season is long and full of different hurdles. How the team navigates them if/when they come is more important than anything. Do I think we have a team capable of finishing that high? Of course. This is one of the deepest Devils rosters I've seen on paper. I hope everyone who sets the bar there is right.

No one is a big word. While I was wrong with CBJ making the playoffs I did have Kraken in and pretty much the first thing I said when I joined the Devils forum last offseason is that the Devils are a playoff lock.

On paper this team looks more experienced and stacked than last years team. Many things would have to go horribly wrong with injuries and other serious problems to knock a team this deep anywhere. The possible 4th line of Nosek-McLeod-Bastian should be the best 4th line in the league with a margin. Wood leaving I didn't like, but knowing Nosek from the VGK & BOS, I do have no doubt the line could take a serious step back from how amazing it was last season. Complete training camp with guys like Toffoli, Meier and Palat is better than just inserting them midseason. Miller has played solid hockey in some of the best clubs. He might surprise some people with how solid he is and he is also coming from a hot season (15G, high plusminus) from Stars team that is also solidly built and managed.

 

[Better Call Sal]

No one is a big word. While I was wrong with CBJ making the playoffs I did have Kraken in and pretty much the first thing I said when I joined the Devils forum last offseason is that the Devils are a playoff lock.

On paper this team looks more experienced and stacked than last years team. Many things would have to go horribly wrong with injuries and other serious problems to knock a team this deep anywhere. The possible 4th line of Nosek-McLeod-Bastian should be the best 4th line in the league with a margin. Wood leaving I didn't like, but knowing Nosek from the VGK & BOS, I do have no doubt the line could take a serious step back from how amazing it was last season. Complete training camp with guys like Toffoli, Meier and Palat is better than just inserting them midseason. Miller has played solid hockey in some of the best clubs. He might surprise some people with how solid he is and he is also coming from a hot season (15G, high plusminus) from Stars team that is also solidly built and managed.

I'm not just talking about the playoffs though. If anyone had told me that we would finish 3rd in the entire NHL (1 point out of second) coming off a 63 point season the year before, I'd have gladly asked for a sip of what you were drinking.

I'm as optimistic as they come. I firmly expected us to be competing for a playoff spot as long as we didn't get tanked by goaltending the way we had the prior year. What we did last year was remarkable, and that won't ever be lost on me. And I do believe that we've only just begun.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

You just have to get in, it’s really doesn’t matter how. Just be healthy with a competent goalie at the right time.

 

[Better Call Sal]

You just have to get in, it’s really doesn’t matter how. Just be healthy with a competent goalie at the right time.

You nailed it earlier in the thread, in my opinion. I think expecting better results than last year in the standings is a tough sell. But our roster is more set up for prolonged success. And that is what matters.

 

[devilsblood]

The other random thought that keeps popping into my mind is that this will be Luke's first year, so I temper my enthusiasm, but it's not ridiculous to think there's a chance he's better than Jack in a few years. I like him that much right now.

Definitely possible.

Pretty clear Luke is going to be impactful with the puck, like really impactful, that to me already looks like a lock, I just wonder if he can do the basic's on defense at a high level. Obviously, as a d-man, the latter carries a lot of weight, so he will have to prove himself in that regard if he wants to be considered amongst the best players in the league.

You also have the fwd vs d-men factor, where the fwd's typically get the nod.

And we don't yet know where Jack tops out.

But could Luke over take him in time? I think he has the talent to make a run at it.

 

[devilsblood]

You just have to get in, it’s really doesn’t matter how. Just be healthy with a competent goalie at the right time.

This is true in the sense that, if we squeeze in as a lower seed and then go on a run, no one will care about under performing in the reg season.

But squeeze in as a lower seed and then get knocked out in the first round? That would be a disappointing season all around.

I'd like to see us to at least be in the ball park of last years reg season.

 

[Aurinko]

Definitely possible.

Pretty clear Luke is going to be impactful with the puck, like really impactful, that to me already looks like a lock, I just wonder if he can do the basic's on defense at a high level. Obviously, as a d-man, the latter carries a lot of weight, so he will have to prove himself in that regard if he wants to be considered amongst the best players in the league.

You also have the fwd vs d-men factor, where the fwd's typically get the nod.

And we don't yet know where Jack tops out.

But could Luke over take him in time? I think he has the talent to make a run at it.

No young D comes complete. Even Makar and Heiskanen had their share of rookie mistakes. I'm sure there might be coming some pretty crazy Hughes-Hughes plays... but those will most likely to be offensive end stuff. What Luke needs is a solid D partner & forwards that can cover his plays. Pairing Luke with Hamilton, especially in the playoffs in 5v5, sounds like something that should not happen.

I really do expect to see Luke - Miller tested out. It should be fantastic fit.

 

[Blackjack]

Our roster is stacked at forward and promising but with less depth on defense and also in goal. If Luke Hughes develops fast the upside is immense.

The big caution is that the competition across the entire eastern conference is tougher. It will be hard to sweep
Ottawa again, they are a fast deep club and will be challenging if they learn how to play. Detroit may well be better. Buffalo tougher than last year. Washington back from its last year swoon at least a bit maybe. Besides the usual other suspects. 104 points may win the division next year instead of 113.

I really would not be shocked if Luke is our best overall defenseman on day 1. The track record of players that did what he did in the NCAA is amazing.

 

[MadDevil]

Please. Talk to me when he works out with Kovy.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Lmfao, this place was brutal for that short period of time. Hopefully, people remember that period if we go on a losing streak (it most likely will happen, it does for everyone).

Ah, the doom and gloomers

 

[Devs3cups]

It’s a small sample size for sure and he needs some work, but I’ve been pretty impressed by how Luke played defensively in his few games with the big club.

His positioning and decision making seemed way tighter than when he was in Michigan. He can build off that. There’ll of course be mistakes, that’s part of the process with offensive D-men, but he’s an intelligent player. His elusiveness in the D-zone will also help him tremendously.

But yeah, overall he was solid on the other side of the puck I felt like in his few games here.

 

[Hisch13r]

I really would not be shocked if Luke is our best overall defenseman on day 1. The track record of players that did what he did in the NCAA is amazing.

Even if he doesn't come in at Makar level (that's not happening) or Quinn or Werenski and instead is more Power or Sanderson that's a solid top 4D off the bat.

It’s a small sample size for sure and he needs some work, but I’ve been pretty impressed by how Luke played defensively in his few games with the big club.

His positioning and decision making seemed way tighter than when he was in Michigan. He can build off that. There’ll of course be mistakes, that’s part of the process with offensive D-men, but he’s an intelligent player. His elusiveness in the D-zone will also help him tremendously.

But yeah, overall he was solid on the other side of the puck I felt like in his few games here.

Thought the same thing. Obvious small sample but I was pretty concerned about his D based off the Michigan stuff but he was a lot more engaged and conscious defensively up here. I wonder if he was just playing down to the NCAA competition and not trying as hard defensively. I think where he'll hurt you more defensively is through him trying stuff offensively and in transition. As an in zone and rush defender he'll obviously have his gaffes here and there but I think he could be competent.

 

[Devs3cups]

Thought the same thing. Obvious small sample but I was pretty concerned about his D based off the Michigan stuff but he was a lot more engaged and conscious defensively up here. I wonder if he was just playing down to the NCAA competition and not trying as hard defensively. I think where he'll hurt you more defensively is through him trying stuff offensively and in transition. As an in zone and rush defender he'll obviously have his gaffes here and there but I think he could be competent.

Honestly, the coaching staff down there probably let him do whatever he wanted because he was so good offensively. I’m sure he realizes up here that he needs to pick and choose his moments and opportunities.

I’m sure NCAA coaches let their talented guys do their thing. Up here, they clearly don’t want to block his strengths and creativity, but you want him to do that responsibly. He did that in his few games, so I’m not really concerned as you said.

 

[devilsblood]

No young D comes complete. Even Makar and Heiskanen had their share of rookie mistakes. I'm sure there might be coming some pretty crazy Hughes-Hughes plays... but those will most likely to be offensive end stuff. What Luke needs is a solid D partner & forwards that can cover his plays. Pairing Luke with Hamilton, especially in the playoffs in 5v5, sounds like something that should not happen.

I really do expect to see Luke - Miller tested out. It should be fantastic fit.

I'm whatever on Miller. He did play with Heiskanen last year, so he must be able to handle reg season responsibilities, but was then benched in the playoffs.

If that pair finds success it's because of Luke.

I'm also not sure it will be Hughes Miller. I was thinking Bahl Miller. Interesting to see how that plays out though.

 

[Devs3cups]

I'm whatever on Miller. He did play with Heiskanen last year, so he must be able to handle reg season responsibilities, but was then benched in the playoffs.

If that pair finds success it's because of Luke.

I'm also not sure it will be Hughes Miller. I was thinking Bahl Miller. Interesting to see how that plays out though.

The pairings might be interesting. You could play Hughes with Marino, but you want Marino on a “shutdown” pair. I thought about:

Luke - Dougie
Siegs - Marino
Bahl - Miller

but, I don’t think that’s going to be it. Ultimately, I could see:

Siegs - Dougie
Luke- Marino
Bahl - Miller