Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

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Bleedred

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I find it very funny that Dom had us 4th most improved and JFresh has us 5th worst (he did mention that there's the obvious asterisk because of Luke and Nemec). My thought has been we're not really any better or worse than we were to finish the year

From what I saw last week when his predictions came out, he still has us in the playoffs and second in the Metro yet again, and also yet again just one point behind Carolina. Only I think he has both teams with about 10 or 11 fewer points than last year. It seems he usually underrates the top finishers and overrates the bottom feeders, as in the last couple of years he's given the Presidents Trophy/conference winners only about 110-ish points, while giving the very bottom feeders as much as 68-70 points. I'm going to assume this is because of the PDO's associated with teams that finish with extreme highs and extreme lows in points and that it's hard to account for such occurrences.

I think a lot of people overrate Severson and Graves. I think we'll miss Severson for the first year or two. Graves? Not so much.
 

MasterofGrond

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From what I saw last week when his predictions came out, he still has us in the playoffs and second in the Metro yet again, and also yet again just one point behind Carolina. Only I think he has both teams with about 10 or 11 fewer points than last year. It seems he usually underrates the top finishers and overrates the bottom feeders, as in the last couple of years he's given the Presidents Trophy/conference winners only about 110-ish points, while giving the very bottom feeders as much as 68-70 points. I'm going to assume this is because of the PDO's associated with teams that finish with extreme highs and extreme lows in points and that it's hard to account for such occurrences.

I think a lot of people overrate Severson and Graves. I think we'll miss Severson for the first year or two. Graves? Not so much.
Yeah if you’re trying to minimize overall error on predictions, the system is always gonna have fewer very high and very low point finishes just by design.
 

Guadana

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Kind of insane to be start that with "enough defense talk let's talk forwards! So... Stillman" lmao

I'm not even that down on him, but Gritsyuk is right there! Or since they probably don't watch him that much, even Filmon.

Just found that funny
Its so hard to track guys like Michkov or Gritsyuk. Khl you know, content you need to pay for watch. They literally the first who did that. And the full season is cost... 40 bucks for all teams. Its damn too much money.

Filmon feel sad.
 

Brodeur

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Kind of insane to be start that with "enough defense talk let's talk forwards! So... Stillman" lmao

I'm not even that down on him, but Gritsyuk is right there! Or since they probably don't watch him that much, even Filmon.

Just found that funny

Cosentino is an OHL broadcast guy, so that was up his wheelhouse. Although I did laugh that he mixed up Frisco and El Paso when he was talking about the 2021 U18s. About the same distance as Newark and Cincinnati.
 

Saugus

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Kind of insane to be start that with "enough defense talk let's talk forwards! So... Stillman" lmao

I'm not even that down on him, but Gritsyuk is right there! Or since they probably don't watch him that much, even Filmon.

Just found that funny

Casey is also making a strong case to be relevant for a discussion of forwards. :laugh:
 
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Guttersniped

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We didn’t have second round pick in 2021(because of one gm)
some second rounders from that draft are
Zellweger, Knies, Raty, Morrow, Stankoven

from 2020
Faber, Peterka, Khusnutdinov(our pick), Wallinder, Evangelista, Ponomaryov

Remember our pick was 37 in 2020 so Wallinder (#32) and Peterka (#34) were off the board.

I liked Peterka before the draft (I will never know a draft class better since we waiting 8 f***ing months for that one lol) but I fell a bit in love with JJ when I saw him in a couple of Utica vs Rochester playoff games. He was a lot of fun and absolutely murdered us lol.

Losing out on that 2020 #37 hurts enough, there’s a ridiculous number of good prospects in that range, but if we could have gotten Peterka my rage would fuel a 1,000 suns.

Also Detroit drafting the giant defenseman and not the amazingly fun and dynamic offense prospect is very Detroit. No fun for you ever Red Wings fans and 100% fun only for the Sabres.

Our pick was #36 in 2021, so Zellweger (#34) was already gone. Detroit took another defenseman, Shai Buium*, with that pick.

I liked Scott Morrow (#40) and Francesco Pinelli (#42) but yeah, Stankoven (#47) has crazy upside and was a very Dallas pick (go for the guy generating monster offense, profit).

Picking early in the 2nd round looks like so much fun, I wish we did again after 2017. (We could have picked at #37 in 2022 but I think we can all agree the Vanacek trade was kind of necessary and we still Casey.)


*Shai will undoubtedly in the future only be known as Zeev Buium’s brother because that’s a cooler name.
 

FinnishDevil

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Random thought of the off season. Really wish Simmonds worked out better here. Everything went to shit that season but it was sad to see how washed up his body was by the time he got here after being such a dominant power forward with Philly for a long time. Crazy that he's still playing.
 

Guadana

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Remember our pick was 37 in 2020 so Wallinder (#32) and Peterka (#34) were off the board.

I liked Peterka before the draft (I will never know a draft class better since we waiting 8 f***ing months for that one lol) but I fell a bit in love with JJ when I saw him in a couple of Utica vs Rochester playoff games. He was a lot of fun and absolutely murdered us lol.

Losing out on that 2020 #37 hurts enough, there’s a ridiculous number of good prospects in that range, but if we could have gotten Peterka my rage would fuel a 1,000 suns.

Also Detroit drafting the giant defenseman and not the amazingly fun and dynamic offense prospect is very Detroit. No fun for you ever Red Wings fans and 100% fun only for the Sabres.

Our pick was #36 in 2021, so Zellweger (#34) was already gone. Detroit took another defenseman, Shai Buium*, with that pick.

I liked Scott Morrow (#40) and Francesco Pinelli (#42) but yeah, Stankoven (#47) has crazy upside and was a very Dallas pick (go for the guy generating monster offense, profit).

Picking early in the 2nd round looks like so much fun, I wish we did again after 2017. (We could have picked at #37 in 2022 but I think we can all agree the Vanacek trade was kind of necessary and we still Casey.)

*Shai will undoubtedly in the future only be known as Zeev Buium’s brother because that’s a cooler name.
Detroit did okay in those seconds with Wallinder (size, skating) and Buchelnikov(undersized but with upside, fast, skilled) ).
We could draft Khusnutdinov and Knies. Knies is overall better version of Stillman. With potential to be ppg player. Khusnutdinov is a two way center with skill, vision, skating and great 200 foot game. He already produced 40 points in 60 games this season in khl as 20 yo player. I told it. I fckn told it. I repeated. I made breakdowns of his game. It was there. He was available. His upside was obvious. Frkn fckn dmn sheros trades. I said he could be evem top 10 player from the draft. "2nd round picks are not so important". Pathetic. Sheroholismic syndrome.
Now we could have Jack-Nico-Marat in center, Meier-Knies-Gritsyuk on the left and Mercer--Bratt-Holtz on the right. Its frkn unbeatable. Even without Knies we still have Filmon for scoring potential or Bardakov for forechecking and defensive game. Khusnutdinov would be huge piece for Devils to build third line around him, use him in PK and produce points against third lines like in video game.
Stillman pick was bad too. There were tonns of players with known upside. Its not like no one knows about Stankoven, Morrow, Zellweger and Raty, if we don't talk about Knies. Who was better all around than Stillman. Fitz know nothing about his game and when he was asked about Dannish league, he was surprised, but I can't forget him that he didn't make a dive. CHL scout was fired finally, Castron was replaced as head scout. You can't make a miss when there were so many known prospects with top-6/top-4 potential.

Our second round pick(traded by Shero) could easily be a good. Even with Stillman, we still have good picks in Mukhamadullin, Casey, Lenny(I'm rooting for this guy) is a questionable, but from late firsts and seconds we have at least 2 good picks from 4 picks. If Shero could focused on buying, not selling, we could have four five picks(instead of losing three our picks in 18, 20, 21) and draft more nhl players. Like Marat!

I said enough about defensive building, coaching decision, wrong strategy and weak providing outside of 2017. Unstopable gambles and wishful thinking. Wasting years that lucked and bring two 1oa. He was so bad as manager and strategist, so his defense is fun and pathetic. Sheroholismic syndrome or Sherotism. No tolerance and no love to Shero. "Success" of his tenure wasn't the result of his moves and decisions.
 

Blackjack

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I find it very funny that Dom had us 4th most improved and JFresh has us 5th worst (he did mention that there's the obvious asterisk because of Luke and Nemec). My thought has been we're not really any better or worse than we were to finish the year


I’m a little bit conflicted on this. I think the team could be better, but it’s just unlikely because of all the things that went right last season.

Does Jack score 90+ again?
Does Nico score 80?
Does Alex Holtz step into a top six role as a productive scorer?
Does Nolan Foote step into a bottom six role as an effective winger?
Does Luke replace what we lost with Severson?
Does Toffoli replace what we lost with Tatar?

Maybe all of those things happen, and if they do I think we’re improved. But flip even a couple of these to a “no” and I can see us sliding backwards a little.
 

Hisch13r

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I’m a little bit conflicted on this. I think the team could be better, but it’s just unlikely because of all the things that went right last season.

Does Jack score 90+ again?
Does Nico score 80?
Does Alex Holtz step into a top six role as a productive scorer?
Does Nolan Foote step into a bottom six role as an effective winger?
Does Luke replace what we lost with Severson?
Does Toffoli replace what we lost with Tatar?

Maybe all of those things happen, and if they do I think we’re improved. But flip even a couple of these to a “no” and I can see us sliding backwards a little.

To me these are mostly likely to happen and some of them aren’t even questions that cross my mind. Injuries are obviously the thing that could change that since we got pretty lucky last year but that’s something everyone faces and it’s unpredictable. It’s more likely Jack tops 100 than dips under 90. Nico ending up somewhere between like 75-85 makes sense to me. Maybe Luke gvies you a bit less than Sevo did but I think he can be comparable enough. I think we’ll lose some playdriving with Toffoli instead of Tatar but also gain some production. Also a full year of Meier

I don’t know if Holtz is a top 6er but he also doesn’t need to be since we already have 6 guys that are great and another 2 who can be serviceable enough in a pinch. As long he as can produce at a competent 3rd line level this year it’d be fine. I don’t know with Foote but even if he doesn’t and McLeod’s banished I think the 4th line can be decent. I really like Nosek-Bastian as a 4th line defensive duo. One of Tierney/Lazar should work as the 3rd guy.

A thing I’ll throw in as a potential negative is Schmid. He could be good again and he could also be a disaster again. If he’s not good or there’s a goalie injury then that’s a big issue. I don’t feel confident at all in Daws or Kallgren. I’d like Halak as the 2/3. Sure the wheels could fall off at his age but he’s pretty much always decent
 

Guadana

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This is the answer. We won +50 games exactly one time in 39 seasons prior to this year, and now doing it in two back to back seasons has become the baseline expectation.
I can imagine we will repeat, but its just should be the coincidence of several successful factors. It is adequate to expect slightly smaller results. Vegas missed playoff year ago when they faced a lot of injuries.
 

Hisch13r

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This is the answer. We won +50 games exactly one time in 39 seasons prior to this year, and now doing it in two back to back seasons has become the baseline expectation.

If we're looking at 50 as the baseline we should hit that. 7 teams did it last year. 9 the year before. 10 on pace in the wacky bubble year.
 
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