Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[The Wumpus]

If the Coyotes are trying to bottom out and add some young cheap talent, what about a Alex Holtz for Lawson Crouse trade?

Crouse is a big burly asshole who plays a heavy game, and his contract fits the Devils window pretty perfectly — unless my math is off, he’d be off the books by the time we have to pay Luke/Nemec the possible big bucks. $4m cap hit, ~20 goal scorer. Devils would probably have to add, but idk. Am I stupid?

They LOVE Crouse. I think it would have to be painful to acquire him.

 

[My3Sons]

Yeah the Devils are in a completely enviable position here...they can wait on Helle because if they don't get him, they still have two guys who led the team to a franchise-record breaking season in net for next year. And it's not like they'd miss out on anything they really need at this point by using that extra $3 million of cap space.

Wait, they are bringing Blackwood back to pair with Vanacek?

 

[Brodeur]

If the Coyotes are trying to bottom out and add some young cheap talent, what about a Alex Holtz for Lawson Crouse trade?

Crouse is a big burly asshole who plays a heavy game, and his contract fits the Devils window pretty perfectly — unless my math is off, he’d be off the books by the time we have to pay Luke/Nemec the possible big bucks. $4m cap hit, ~20 goal scorer. Devils would probably have to add, but idk. Am I stupid?

When I went to the Devils@Coyotes game, all their marketing stuff had Keller and Crouse on it. I don't think they're looking to deal him. They have Dylan Guenther to work into the lineup this year, so they might not be in the market for somebody like Holtz.

Their 2024-25 forwards could be fun:

Keller-Hayton-Schmaltz
Maccelli-Cooley-Guenther
Crouse-Kerfoot-Doan

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

When I went to the Devils@Coyotes game, all their marketing stuff had Keller and Crouse on it. I don't think they're looking to deal him. They have Dylan Guenther to work into the lineup this year, so they might not be in the market for somebody like Holtz.

Their 2024-25 forwards could be fun:

Keller-Hayton-Schmaltz
Maccelli-Cooley-Guenther
Crouse-Kerfoot-Doan

People pile on them but I don’t think they’re that far off.

 

[Xirik]

People pile on them but I don’t think they’re that far off.

Plus they seem to be building a Russian Colony based off their recent draft picks.

Pretty good marketing idea I must say.

"Hey Russian Comrades! Do you hate the cold and like being among your own countrymen and be able to speak your native language all the time? COME TO ARIZONA!

Devils are basically doing the same thing with the Swiss so its all good.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Wait this whole tangent about trading Mercer is based off one rando JETS fan's comment?! I know you guys want crap to do in the offseason but...what's the point of even bringing that up? None of us are gonna do that, and Fitz sure as shit isn't gonna do that.

If Mercer was ever going to be traded it would have been for Timo and that was maybe a .000001% chance at best, and only for a fully-signed Timo would it have even been on the table.

It's tough because the value he has is insane as a 25-30 goal scorer on an ELC, you could put him in other trades but the value is always going to be off. It's why teams stack themselves on year 3 of their big draft picks because the eventual cliff is going to hit. I wouldn't even done it for Timo.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Remember when fans and pundits were chicken littling that Fitz was gonna give up Mercer to get Meier?

 

[Guttersniped]

I'm willing to wait a bit on this Hellebuyck situation if there's still some potential there. The guys left to sign aren't worth potentially missing out on Hellebuyck for. Like you can sign Puljujarv or Tatar for 1.5-2.5 mill to miss out on Hellebuyck? Stay cool.

Puljujärvi had double hip surgery at the end of June so he’s not getting signed by anyone right now. link

Puljujarvi had surgery earlier in the week, where a metal ball and cup were placed into his hip joints. The recovery time is said to be anywhere between six and ten months.

This is the second time:




It was a different type of hip surgery in 2019 but I can’t find any details other than this memorable bit:

 

[StevenToddIves]

Thankfully we have a number of folks who contribute here that help the lame and the sick (cough cough - like me - cough cough) avoid the fetid filth of lowest common denominator nuber crunching alone that masquerades as prospect evaluation.

I'd suggest reading the guys whom I consider the best in the prospect writing/analysis business today, whom I consider to be Cam Robinson (eliteprospects.com), Steve Kournianos (thedraftanalyst.com) and Corey Pronman (The Athletic).

We are also really fortunate on the HF Devils boards to have @Guadana who is probably the sharpest prospect writer I've seen emerge in the last half-decade.

 

[StevenToddIves]

When I went to the Devils@Coyotes game, all their marketing stuff had Keller and Crouse on it. I don't think they're looking to deal him. They have Dylan Guenther to work into the lineup this year, so they might not be in the market for somebody like Holtz.

Their 2024-25 forwards could be fun:

Keller-Hayton-Schmaltz
Maccelli-Cooley-Guenther
Crouse-Kerfoot-Doan

Guenther is going to be a stud. He's in my top 25 prospects outside the NHL right now.

Arizona is a weird team. I wouldn't say they've drafted *well* over the past half-decade, but they've had such a ridiculous amount of high picks that they still have a top 5 or so prospect pool in the NHL. Had they drafted Michkov & Benson over Simashev & But this year, they'd be #1.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Plus they seem to be building a Russian Colony based off their recent draft picks.

Pretty good marketing idea I must say.

"Hey Russian Comrades! Do you hate the cold and like being among your own countrymen and be able to speak your native language all the time? COME TO ARIZONA!

Devils are basically doing the same thing with the Swiss so its all good.

This would be fine if Arizona drafted the best Russians. They could have had Miroschnichenko over Geekie last year, could have had Trikozov/Perevalov over Duda last year, could have had Michkov over Simashev this year early in the 1st round and likely had Simashev over But later in the round.

 

[My3Sons]

I'd suggest reading the guys whom I consider the best in the prospect writing/analysis business today, whom I consider to be Cam Robinson (eliteprospects.com), Steve Kournianos (thedraftanalyst.com) and Corey Pronman (The Athletic).

We are also really fortunate on the HF Devils boards to have @Guadana who is probably the sharpest prospect writer I've seen emerge in the last half-decade.

The predraft contributions here are great. I think those of you who have given us the benefit of your experience have raised the bar. It’s discussed with some nuance and people will explain their thinking which is helpful. I still remember your descriptions of the 2018 draft well and I recall being a but bummed that NJ didn’t land Miller instead of Smith but obviously it worked out well in the end. For some reason I recall your evaluation of Dylan Samberg and it was spot on. You have a good eye for defenders. @Guadana is so good with the European juniors and explaining why they will or won’t fit into the western game. He has an excellent feel for that. There are several others who pitched in this season with you busy. I read some of Steve Kournianos and he’s had some podcasts. I like that he’s not biased despite being an open Rangers fan he’s been very complimentary of NJ prospects the last few years. I can understand why a Bader annoys those of you who actually watch the games and video. It’s like those guys who said Petterson was going to hit in 2017 based solely on their statistical model. He did but my guess is that they missed other picks with the same model.

 

[StevenToddIves]

The predraft contributions here are great. I think those of you who have given us the benefit of your experience have raised the bar. It’s discussed with some nuance and people will explain their thinking which is helpful. I still remember your descriptions of the 2018 draft well and I recall being a but bummed that NJ didn’t land Miller instead of Smith but obviously it worked out well in the end. For some reason I recall your evaluation of Dylan Samberg and it was spot on. You have a good eye for defenders. @Guadana is so good with the European juniors and explaining why they will or won’t fit into the western game. He has an excellent feel for that. There are several others who pitched in this season with you busy. I read some of Steve Kournianos and he’s had some podcasts. I like that he’s not biased despite being an open Rangers fan he’s been very complimentary of NJ prospects the last few years. I can understand why a Bader annoys those of you who actually watch the games and video. It’s like those guys who said Petterson was going to hit in 2017 based solely on their statistical model. He did but my guess is that they missed other picks with the same model.

The highest ranking of Pettersson was actually Kournianos, who ranked Pettersson #3 overall despite not using any statistical metrics in his rankings.

In 2017, when Pettersson was drafted, the big stat guys who do draft rankings now -- Bader and JFresh primarily -- were not yet ranking draft eligibles. But with Bader and the 2017 draft, we need to keep in mind his loudest opinion was what a terrible pick Colorado made with Cale Makar, who was not even worth a 1st round pick based on his statistical model.

The most analytics friendly draft ranking I can think of from 2017 was Scouching, who uses more of a hybrid analytics/scouting model in his rankings. You are correct that Scouching also nailed it with Pettersson, as he was the only ranker I know who also had Pettersson at #3 overall.

Scouching also hit a home run in 2017 with a world-high ranking of Jason Robertson at #14. But the risk you find with guys who weigh analytics heavily into their draft rankings was also on display, as he had a ridiculously low ranking on both Makar (#9, despite he was in every other top 3-5 I can recall) and Rob Thomas (#28, despite Thomas being ranked routinely in top 20s and often in the early teens).

But again, Scouching -- because he also researches religiously and actually scouts the prospects -- is light years superior to a Bader or a JFresh.

Ultimately, you're correct in your assumption that analytics-based draft models sometimes hit at the cost of far-more-frequently missing by country miles. My advice with the analytic models would be to pay attention to the guys who are anomalously high (such as a Pettersson or Stankoven or Zellweger) while ignoring -- completely f**king avoiding -- any negative opinions on the players the consensus has very high but analytics models hate, such as a Seider or Stutzle or Makar).

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Remember when fans and pundits were chicken littling that Fitz was gonna give up Mercer to get Meier?

Just dumb Sharks fans on the trade board

This would be fine if Arizona drafted the best Russians. They could have had Miroschnichenko over Geekie last year, could have had Trikozov/Perevalov over Duda last year, could have had Michkov over Simashev this year early in the 1st round and likely had Simashev over But later in the round.

Can't fault them for Michkov, he didn't want to report to them. Could've traded down though from 6 at the worst.

 

[mdj12784]

A team would have to blow Fritz’s mind to trade Mercer. I think it’s more than safe to say, Dawson is here to stay

 

[MadDevil]

A team would have to blow Fritz’s mind to trade Mercer. I think it’s more than safe to say, Dawson is here to stay

The only way I see it ever becoming a possibility is if Mercer has a huge season and we face the "problem" of having to pay another really good player big money next summer, and even then I think they'd move other contracts to keep him. Jack, Nico, Meier, Bratt, and Mercer all in their primes is just such a good forward core to contend around that I can't see Fitz breaking it up anytime soon.

 

[Guadana]

I'd suggest reading the guys whom I consider the best in the prospect writing/analysis business today, whom I consider to be Cam Robinson (eliteprospects.com), Steve Kournianos (thedraftanalyst.com) and Corey Pronman (The Athletic).

We are also really fortunate on the HF Devils boards to have @Guadana who is probably the sharpest prospect writer I've seen emerge in the last half-decade.

Thanks, Steve, I’m learning from the best. I liked to read yours and Kournianos’s walls of texts and compare with what I saw, trying to compare it with NHL game. Pronman was good too as a foundation for research.

The predraft contributions here are great. I think those of you who have given us the benefit of your experience have raised the bar. It’s discussed with some nuance and people will explain their thinking which is helpful. I still remember your descriptions of the 2018 draft well and I recall being a but bummed that NJ didn’t land Miller instead of Smith but obviously it worked out well in the end. For some reason I recall your evaluation of Dylan Samberg and it was spot on. You have a good eye for defenders. @Guadana is so good with the European juniors and explaining why they will or won’t fit into the western game. He has an excellent feel for that. There are several others who pitched in this season with you busy. I read some of Steve Kournianos and he’s had some podcasts. I like that he’s not biased despite being an open Rangers fan he’s been very complimentary of NJ prospects the last few years. I can understand why a Bader annoys those of you who actually watch the games and video. It’s like those guys who said Petterson was going to hit in 2017 based solely on their statistical model. He did but my guess is that they missed other picks with the same model.

That’s fun, that I think I mostly better at USNTDP guys. I known way before the draft that Sanderson is top five player and that he will be drafted higher than most people expected, he was my candidate for 4-5 pick, way before the draft I talked about issues with Luke Hughes, that a lot of guys upped in the next two years(im very happy that Luke is talented enough to compensate/fix it), I was very pro Gauthier in the draft and ranked him as top-6 player way before the hype started, and this year I think I was rare one who said that Moore is more great complimentary piece than good line driver piece - reason why I think teams who is trying to find first line center, should try to pick other players. Again I think that for Chicago it’s a huge pick, potentially it’s a great complimentary player on the line with Bedard to make all the cleaning work and save the pace of the game. And I like my Leonard analysis as a player potentialy will be higher drafted in the draft day than most(I liked him as a sixth) over Benson and others. And I easily putted out Perrault from top 20 because of his pros and cons and his rare model of successful model in nhl.

I have problems with sharping my thoughts about whl players because the league is unstructured and the game is very open on my taste. Same with QMJHL. A lot of guys doing a lot of stuff that will not work in NHL and it’s a task to understand how they will translate it.

Of course I like my Russian guys, but still trying to be conservative. Somewhere I’m not successful with it - I still like Perevalovs game very much, but it’s to early to call him top-15 from the draft, ob the other hand I was too conservative to think that Detroit will be the first team to draft Simashev. I think that I was right with the team, because I listened his interview and he said Detroit had the biggest and deepest meeting with him. I believe they drafted Danielson because they had a plan to draft Simashev. And I was disappointed a little bit that I wasn’t rare first one who praised him as a top 10 player of the draft. Hype about him started too early. May be majority of nhl public finally understand that mobile big defenseman with good hands and defensive IQ is what translating greatly to nhl game.

 

[Mirka the Turka]

For Helle we can just trade Holtz as a 1:1 deal

Would be perfectly fair

 

[Nubmer6]

Thanks, Steve, I’m learning from the best.

You'll truly have reached @StevenToddIves level when you start using the word "juxtaposed"

 

[Nubmer6]

For Helle we can just trade Holtz as a 1:1 deal

Would be perfectly fair

Well, not 1 for 1.

It would be Holtz and VV

 

[Cheddabombs]

 

[Mirka the Turka]

Well, not 1 for 1.

It would be Holtz and VV

I don’t think Vitek really has any trade value tbh

 

[NjDevsRR]

View attachment 727174

LET N.J. COOK

@Devs3cups

 

[Forge]

A team would have to blow Fritz’s mind to trade Mercer. I think it’s more than safe to say, Dawson is here to stay

There may come a time when he's available, that time isn't now, that's for sure.

 

[Billdo]

There may come a time when he's available, that time isn't now, that's for sure.

I'd honestly move just about anyone as far as forwards before I moved Mercer. The obvious players aside I'm keeping Mercer at all cost.