Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[Saugus]

Here :

It's there.

Just in case you believed I was making stuff up.

We didn't think you were making it up, of course there are delusional fans in every fanbase.

I just think it's not very relevant to the discussion of how we would plausibly acquire Hellebuyck, since we can be pretty sure that Mercer is a non-starter in any trade talks.

Just because one Jets fan thinks he can wishcast Fitz into doing something foolish with a lopsided trade doesn't mean it's going to happen.

 

[Triumph]

the devils can win this year. but their best chance to win will be when you have a 27 year old nico, a 24 year old jack, 22 year old hughes and nemec, and the next 3-4 years after that. i don't think going all in on hellebuyck is worth it if it sacrifices a piece like mercer. look at the goalies who've won recently, and our roster should be just as strong as theirs

I'm not sure this is true because of ELCs and whatnot. The Devils only have one season with Mercer and Luke Hughes on an ELC and it's this one. I'm not saying they won't have chances to win in the future, but to me this team is as likely to win as any of them.

 

[Rhodes 81]

There's some truth to the thought that if Fitz doesn't utilize the cap space he has this year as a benefit of the ELC's, he's wasting a resource. If that money isn't being used for a goalie I don't really know what else you could use it on. Maybe Tatar to just keep trying to make the forwards as deep as possible to make up for deficiencies in D and goal. There aren't really that many players left out there worth signing even on a 1-year deal and there aren't that many holes to fill.

 

[Guttersniped]

I'm not sure this is true because of ELCs and whatnot. The Devils only have one season with Mercer and Luke Hughes on an ELC and it's this one. I'm not saying they won't have chances to win in the future, but to me this team is as likely to win as any of them.

It might be cheap but defense is a bit sketchy due to the youth and rookies hit walls. Planning on getting a lot from Luke and/or Nemec in a long playoff run is probably wishful thinking.

There’s plenty that can go wrong, we’ve won a single playoff series with this group and it’s changed quite a bit the off-season. It’s not a similar situation to Colorado and Kuemper.

And of course a couple of key injuries could blow us up too. I’m not a fan of going all in right now.

And I’m unenthusiastic about a 31 UFA goalie who’s going to point to Sorokin’s 8 year/8.25m deal as a comparable.

 

[glenwo2]

And now for something completely different....AND ADORABLE :

 

[glenwo2]

We didn't think you were making it up, of course there are delusional fans in every fanbase.

I just think it's not very relevant to the discussion of how we would plausibly acquire Hellebuyck, since we can be pretty sure that Mercer is a non-starter in any trade talks.

Just because one Jets fan thinks he can wishcast Fitz into doing something foolish with a lopsided trade doesn't mean it's going to happen.

I thought it was relevant because I saw Mercer being mentioned at some points so I wanted to contribute to that conversation.

All that aside, I never wanted that reality to happen where Mercer is dealt, though.

Anyway, I don't think we're getting Hellebuyck regardless and we're going to roll with Vanacek/Schmid again which is fine by me.

 

[Brodeur]

We might have the benefit of being able to wait it out. It's going to be a limited trade market for Hellebuyck this season and there won't be a ton of suitors next offseason who could offer him money and a chance to win. In terms of teams who have a starter (or are paying somebody like a starter):

Anaheim: Gibson
Calgary: Markstrom
Edmonton: Campbell
Los Angeles:
San Jose:
Seattle: Grubauer
Vancouver: Demko
Vegas: Hill

Arizona: Vejmelka
Chicago:
Colorado: Georgiev?
Dallas: Oettinger
Minnesota: Gustavsson
Nashville: Saros
St. Louis: Binnington
Winnipeg:

Boston: Ullmark
Buffalo:
Detroit: Husso
Florida: Bobrovsky
Montreal:
Ottawa: Korpisalo
Tampa Bay: Vasilevskiy
Toronto: Samsonov?

Carolina: Andersen
Columbus: Merzlikins
New Jersey: Vanecek?
NY Islanders: Sorokin
NY Rangers: Shesterkin
Philadelphia: Hart
Pittsburgh: Jarry
Washington: Kuemper

Chicago could probably offer up the most money but would still be a few years away from contending. LA probably won't have the cap space. Buffalo's on the rise, but still might not be a preferred landing spot.

 

[Eggtimer]

There's some truth to the thought that if Fitz doesn't utilize the cap space he has this year as a benefit of the ELC's, he's wasting a resource. If that money isn't being used for a goalie I don't really know what else you could use it on. Maybe Tatar to just keep trying to make the forwards as deep as possible to make up for deficiencies in D and goal. There aren't really that many players left out there worth signing even on a 1-year deal and there aren't that many holes to fill.

If no upgrade in goal is available , not sure what to do . Be patient and wait it out and see if Jets lower their ask in Helle or go ahead and get a 3rd line forward ? I think we are set on D . Smith and Nemec as depth . If we get in a jam , we could pluck someone up off waivers when teams are trying to sneak someone past waivers at the start of the year . We shouldn’t need anyone other than that ?
I think we are pretty stacked everywhere except in net . I’m not too pumped about counting on VV and Schmid taking us to the promised land. I think Schmid has the potential to be a long term option for us , but not sure if that’s as a true starter or not . VV I fell is a temporary thing . He has shown he can’t be relied on to win in the playoffs . For both the Caps and now us , he looks to be shaky come playoff time and I don’t want to be waste a year of Luke / Nemec ELC and cheap Mercer Bahl deals .

We might have the benefit of being able to wait it out. It's going to be a limited trade market for Hellebuyck this season and there won't be a ton of suitors next offseason who could offer him money and a chance to win. In terms of teams who have a starter (or are paying somebody like a starter):



Chicago could probably offer up the most money but would still be a few years away from contending. LA probably won't have the cap space. Buffalo's on the rise, but still might not be a preferred landing spot.

Buffalo has hitched their wagon on Levi . I can’t see them going after an expensive , older goalie when they have him as their plan .

 

[Brodeur]

Buffalo has hitched their wagon on Levi . I can’t see them going after an expensive , older goalie when they have him as their plan .

Levi's on an ELC and has seven pro games under his belt. As a normal sized human playing goalie, I'll be cheering him on but I don't think it's inconceivable that they look for a veteran.

 

[My3Sons]

There's some truth to the thought that if Fitz doesn't utilize the cap space he has this year as a benefit of the ELC's, he's wasting a resource. If that money isn't being used for a goalie I don't really know what else you could use it on. Maybe Tatar to just keep trying to make the forwards as deep as possible to make up for deficiencies in D and goal. There aren't really that many players left out there worth signing even on a 1-year deal and there aren't that many holes to fill.

What cap space is left after they sign Bahl and add Foote and Holtz or Thompson to the roster? Maybe $3 mil? You need to save some for bonus overages and thr TDL so maybe they really end up with $2 mil? I’d rather save that to get Heelbuyck when WPG finally cracks since they aren’t getting Mercer

 

[tailfins]

It might be cheap but defense is a bit sketchy due to the youth and rookies hit walls. Planning on getting a lot from Luke and/or Nemec in a long playoff run is probably wishful thinking.

There’s plenty that can go wrong, we’ve won a single playoff series with this group and it’s changed quite a bit the off-season. It’s not a similar situation to Colorado and Kuemper.

And of course a couple of key injuries could blow us up too. I’m not a fan of going all in right now.

And I’m unenthusiastic about a 31 UFA goalie who’s going to point to Sorokin’s 8 year/8.25m deal as a comparable.

I agree. Unless Fitz can add a surefire difference maker, I think better to hold off. There's still the trade deadline - and we'll know a lot more by then. Accruing cap space now should allow us to afford more at the deadline.

Of course, I can't remember the last time a contender acquired a starting goalie at the deadline (Luongo? but Florida missed the playoffs).

 

[NJDevs26]

Wait this whole tangent about trading Mercer is based off one rando JETS fan's comment?! I know you guys want crap to do in the offseason but...what's the point of even bringing that up? None of us are gonna do that, and Fitz sure as shit isn't gonna do that.

If Mercer was ever going to be traded it would have been for Timo and that was maybe a .000001% chance at best, and only for a fully-signed Timo would it have even been on the table.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Wait this whole tangent about trading Mercer is based off one rando JETS fan's comment?! I know you guys want crap to do in the offseason but...what's the point of even bringing that up? None of us are gonna do that, and Fitz sure as shit isn't gonna do that.

If Mercer was ever going to be traded it would have been for Timo and that was maybe a .000001% chance at best, and only for a fully-signed Timo would it have even been on the table.

Even that % is an over exaggeration

 

[Rhodes 81]

If no upgrade in goal is available , not sure what to do . Be patient and wait it out and see if Jets lower their ask in Helle or go ahead and get a 3rd line forward ? I think we are set on D . Smith and Nemec as depth . If we get in a jam , we could pluck someone up off waivers when teams are trying to sneak someone past waivers at the start of the year . We shouldn’t need anyone other than that ?
I think we are pretty stacked everywhere except in net . I’m not too pumped about counting on VV and Schmid taking us to the promised land. I think Schmid has the potential to be a long term option for us , but not sure if that’s as a true starter or not . VV I fell is a temporary thing . He has shown he can’t be relied on to win in the playoffs . For both the Caps and now us , he looks to be shaky come playoff time and I don’t want to be waste a year of Luke / Nemec ELC and cheap Mercer Bahl deals .

Where I come down is that every move we could make essentially sacrifices the long-term window for this year, and I'm just not sure you want to go all in yet. Signing another forward almost certainly means Holtz is a callup at best this year, which means you should trade him now because his value will crater every remaining year he doesn't play in the NHL regularly and start to produce.

Trading for anyone else of substance almost certainly requires Holtz as a trade chip, unless it's a package of mid-round picks and Casey or Gritsyuk level prospect. Obviously all the key spots on our team are younger players so it's not a huge deal right now, but we're running out of safe bets to be NHLers in our prospect pool these days. We're going to need some cheaper depth pieces coming up through the system in the next 2-4 years and we may already be going 2 years in a row without a 1st depending on if we end up owing this year's to San Jose.

And you also don't really want to commit any more salary cap space past this year if you can avoid it.

Really the only option that makes sense is a rental goalie where you may end up having to figure it out again next year, or a cost controlled goalie with term. The only obvious rental available is Hellebuyck and I'm personally not into paying his apparent cost for 1 year. I'd be more comfortable giving up a bunch of assets for a long-term solution where we can get 3+ runs out of them, but the only obvious options for that are Saros and Swayman.

Maybe it is better to just let it be for now, as much as that is a wasted resource. If I really just wanted to make a move, I'd trade something centered around Holtz for Swayman and pair him with Vanecek for this year, then figure out which one of them is the better bet for the future based on that.

What cap space is left after they sign Bahl and add Foote and Holtz or Thompson to the roster? Maybe $3 mil? You need to save some for bonus overages and thr TDL so maybe they really end up with $2 mil? I’d rather save that to get Heelbuyck when WPG finally cracks since they aren’t getting Mercer

We have about $5.6 million right now. I don't expect Bahl will get much more the $1million, Holtz and Foote total about $1.7 million. That would give us 13 forwards and 7 D and leave us with about $3 million in space, but you can assume any forward additions would kick Holtz back to Utica because I don't think they'll make the mistake of keeping him around again if he's not a regular, so you can subtract $900k from whatever contract there. Maybe worth adding Tatar (just as an example) at $4 million for 1 year if he doesn't get a long term deal at the dollar amount he wants. I'm certainly not going to cry if we just sit on $3 million in space heading into the year, but it is definitely worth exploring if there are other ways to utilize that resource.

 

[My3Sons]

Where I come down is that every move we could make essentially sacrifices the long-term window for this year, and I'm just not sure you want to go all in yet. Signing another forward almost certainly means Holtz is a callup at best this year, which means you should trade him now because his value will crater every remaining year he doesn't play in the NHL regularly and start to produce.

Trading for anyone else of substance almost certainly requires Holtz as a trade chip, unless it's a package of mid-round picks and Casey or Gritsyuk level prospect. Obviously all the key spots on our team are younger players so it's not a huge deal right now, but we're running out of safe bets to be NHLers in our prospect pool these days. We're going to need some cheaper depth pieces coming up through the system in the next 2-4 years and we may already be going 2 years in a row without a 1st depending on if we end up owing this year's to San Jose.

And you also don't really want to commit any more salary cap space past this year if you can avoid it.

Really the only option that makes sense is a rental goalie where you may end up having to figure it out again next year, or a cost controlled goalie with term. The only obvious rental available is Hellebuyck and I'm personally not into paying his apparent cost for 1 year. I'd be more comfortable giving up a bunch of assets for a long-term solution where we can get 3+ runs out of them, but the only obvious options for that are Saros and Swayman.

Maybe it is better to just let it be for now, as much as that is a wasted resource. If I really just wanted to make a move, I'd trade something centered around Holtz for Swayman and pair him with Vanecek for this year, then figure out which one of them is the better bet for the future based on that.

We have about $5.6 million right now. I don't expect Bahl will get much more the $1million, Holtz and Foote total about $1.7 million. That would give us 13 forwards and 7 D and leave us with about $3 million in space, but you can assume any forward additions would kick Holtz back to Utica because I don't think they'll make the mistake of keeping him around again if he's not a regular, so you can subtract $900k from whatever contract there. Maybe worth adding Tatar (just as an example) at $4 million for 1 year if he doesn't get a long term deal at the dollar amount he wants. I'm certainly not going to cry if we just sit on $3 million in space heading into the year, but it is definitely worth exploring if there are other ways to utilize that resource.

That's fair and my guess is that Fitz and the staff are wrestling with that sort of thinking right now. Isn't the roster up to 23 guys? I would want them to have the cap flexibility to add that 23rd guy as needed. Maybe Thompson is the guy who watches most nights since at his age I'm not sure what he's getting out of the AHL and he is probably ready to either carve out an NHL role or move on from the organization.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I'm willing to wait a bit on this Hellebuyck situation if there's still some potential there. The guys left to sign aren't worth potentially missing out on Hellebuyck for. Like you can sign Puljujarv or Tatar for 1.5-2.5 mill to miss out on Hellebuyck? Stay cool.

 

[forceten]

I’m over Hellebuyck at this point

 

[NJDevs26]

I'm willing to wait a bit on this Hellebuyck situation if there's still some potential there. The guys left to sign aren't worth potentially missing out on Hellebuyck for. Like you can sign Puljujarv or Tatar for 1.5-2.5 mill to miss out on Hellebuyck? Stay cool.

Yeah the Devils are in a completely enviable position here...they can wait on Helle because if they don't get him, they still have two guys who led the team to a franchise-record breaking season in net for next year. And it's not like they'd miss out on anything they really need at this point by using that extra $3 million of cap space.

 

[MB3]

If the Coyotes are trying to bottom out and add some young cheap talent, what about a Alex Holtz for Lawson Crouse trade?

Crouse is a big burly asshole who plays a heavy game, and his contract fits the Devils window pretty perfectly — unless my math is off, he’d be off the books by the time we have to pay Luke/Nemec the possible big bucks. $4m cap hit, ~20 goal scorer. Devils would probably have to add, but idk. Am I stupid?

 

[Mgd31]

If the Coyotes are trying to bottom out and add some young cheap talent, what about a Alex Holtz for Lawson Crouse trade?

Crouse is a big burly asshole who plays a heavy game, and his contract fits the Devils window pretty perfectly — unless my math is off, he’d be off the books by the time we have to pay Luke/Nemec the possible big bucks. $4m cap hit, ~20 goal scorer. Devils would probably have to add, but idk. Am I stupid?

The Coyotes came out this summer saying they are no longer bottoming out and moving forward with adding around Schmaltz, Keller and Crouse. Don't think they are looking at futures anymore for guys like Crouse.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

The Coyotes came out this summer saying they are no longer bottoming out and moving forward with adding around Schmaltz, Keller and Crouse. Don't think they are looking at futures anymore for guys like Crouse.

Yeah, they have added Zucker, Kerfoot and Bjugstad, and there have been rumors about Dumba too.

 

[britdevil]

I’m over Hellebuyck at this point

Same. I never really gave it a thought.

A trade like that comes at the deadline.

 

[Billdo]

I’m over Hellebuyck at this point

I never wanted any part of the cost to acquire or sign.

 

[NJDevs26]

I only want him as a rental, but I suspect that won't happen for a while. They might think the price will go up closer to the deadline as more teams think they're a goalie away from pulling a '21 Panthers.

 

[britdevil]

Overrated system goalie who hid behind Stevens and the trap.