Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

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Right now, off the top of my head I'd rank the top 20:

1 Bedard CHI
2 Michkov PHI
3 Fantilli CLB
4 Hughes NJ
5 Carlsson ANH
6 Jiricek CLB
7 Nemec NJ
8 Slafkovsky MTL
9 Cooley ARI
10 Edvinsson DET
11 Benson BUF
12 Wright SEA
13 Smith SJ
14 Gauthier PHI
15 Simashev ARI
16 Reinbacher MTL
17 Faber MIN
18 Leonard WSH
19 Dvorsky STL
20 Clarke LAK


I have Hughes as the top D and Nemec as the #3 D, so the Devils still probably have a top 10 prospect pool overall until Hughes graduates next season.
Good list, I agree with most of this as my list is fairly similar. Having 2 of arguably the top 3 D-men prospects is awesome. Especially since they haven’t even joined full time yet. Good times ahead with Luke and Simon.

I’m struggling with Jiricek/Nemec. They’re close, but Nemec’s end to the season and 5v5 scoring sways me his way right now. Jiricek got the vast majority of his points on the PP this year, while Nemec got limited time. I also tend to value elite skating, transition play and high IQ with offensive D-men and I feel Nemec fits this description better. Jiricek has the better shot and is more physical though.
 
lol.

I forgot how much you despised this guy, Steve.
Makes a complete mockery of what I -- and many like me -- literally put 1,000s of hours of work into over the years. Then he labels anyone who dismisses his "model" some sort of ignorant dinosaur and annually puts out the least accurate prospect rankings of the year.

No sense of humor and no panache or grace or humility when criticized or called out for his errors. Takes credit for every player he calls correctly like he actually discovered the player: "see how right I was about Jack Hughes? I'm a genius!"

When Bader makes a major error -- like heavily criticizing Colorado for taking Makar #4 -- he'll make it seem like some sort of divine anomaly no one could have possible foreseen, even though every good prospect writer on earth Makar ranked in their top 3-5.

All of this would be somewhat forgivable if he didn't con gullible hockey fans into paying for his litany of misinformation. He's essentially a snake oil salesman who takes advantage of less savvy hockey fans while taking their money, and I just find that monumentally depressing.
 
Good list, I agree with most of this as my list is fairly similar. Having 2 of arguably the top 3 D-men prospects is awesome. Especially since they haven’t even joined full time yet. Good times ahead with Luke and Simon.

I’m struggling with Jiricek/Nemec. They’re close, but Nemec’s end to the season and 5v5 scoring sways me his way right now. Jiricek got the vast majority of his points on the PP this year, while Nemec got limited time. I also tend to value elite skating, transition play and high IQ with offensive D-men and I feel Nemec fits this description better. Jiricek has the better shot and is more physical though.

Also, when in doubt, homer it out :nod:
 
Good list, I agree with most of this as my list is fairly similar. Having 2 of arguably the top 3 D-men prospects is awesome. Especially since they haven’t even joined full time yet. Good times ahead with Luke and Simon.

I’m struggling with Jiricek/Nemec. They’re close, but Nemec’s end to the season and 5v5 scoring sways me his way right now. Jiricek got the vast majority of his points on the PP this year, while Nemec got limited time. I also tend to value elite skating, transition play and high IQ with offensive D-men and I feel Nemec fits this description better. Jiricek has the better shot and is more physical though.
Both Jiricek and Nemec are going to be -- and I've said this for quite awhile now -- absolute superstar defensemen. What I love most about both of them is that they will both be terrific, all-situations, two-way blueliners.

If forced to project, I'd see Jiricek as being slightly better on the defensive side of the puck and Nemec slightly better on the offensive side. But Jiricek will close the gap in the scoring because of his absolute howitzer of a point shot, which honestly might have the potential to eventually become the best point shot in the entire NHL. So ultimately, I give Jiricek a slight overall edge, although with any prospect rankings they are all subject to change because of the inherent volatility in development curves.
 
Both Jiricek and Nemec are going to be -- and I've said this for quite awhile now -- absolute superstar defensemen. What I love most about both of them is that they will both be terrific, all-situations, two-way blueliners.

If forced to project, I'd see Jiricek as being slightly better on the defensive side of the puck and Nemec slightly better on the offensive side. But Jiricek will close the gap in the scoring because of his absolute howitzer of a point shot, which honestly might have the potential to eventually become the best point shot in the entire NHL. So ultimately, I give Jiricek a slight overall edge, although with any prospect rankings they are all subject to change because of the inherent volatility in development curves.
I agree to some extent there, I’ll also add that from my viewings, Nemec’s elite and calculated skating is a huge asset that Jiricek doesn’t possess. I feel like that will be something that will seperate them.

At the end of the day, 2 very good players, who are very different types of D-men with 2 different skillsets and who generate offense in different ways. I just tend to lean more towards Nemec’s style of play in D-men in general.
 
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I hope Luke goes underrated in his calder
chances next season. I’m putting 200 on him winning it.
 
I think he has a chance but there is a ton of competition and it’s easier for forwards to win it.
do you think he would have to out perform bedard to win it? what if they both finish ppg next season. I’m a homer either way. I’ll take the chance. :cool:
 
If I had to put my money on anyone to win the Calder, I would go with Fantilli. I don't really know the situation in Columbus but if he starts out playing alongside Laine and Gaudreau those are two elite wingers that he can complement perfectly with his skillset. Bedard is amazing and I think he's gonna have a stellar campaign as well but Chicago has an absolutely pitiful roster. Fantilli is just in a better situation right off the bat if he wins that #1C spot. Don't know what his odds will be but I would probably drop some money on those.
 
I hope Luke goes underrated in his calder
chances next season. I’m putting 200 on him winning it.
I know we all hate betting lines in our sports talk but fyi he's +5000 to win the NORRIS on Bovada (same as Devon Toews, Montour, Brent Burns). They don't have calder lines as of right now.
 
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If I had to put my money on anyone to win the Calder, I would go with Fantilli. I don't really know the situation in Columbus but if he starts out playing alongside Laine and Gaudreau those are two elite wingers that he can complement perfectly with his skillset. Bedard is amazing and I think he's gonna have a stellar campaign as well but Chicago has an absolutely pitiful roster. Fantilli is just in a better situation right off the bat if he wins that #1C spot. Don't know what his odds will be but I would probably drop some money on those.

I think Fantilli will be better than Bedard myself.
 
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Bader must really hate Mukhamadullin based off the notable shark prospects.
Seeing how it's tough to hate someone when you don't even know what they look like, I doubt Bader hates any hockey player. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if Bader is the guy you go watch a hockey game with and you have to explain what "icing" is for the entire first period. I'm not sure he's ever watched a hockey game. He's not a particularly bright guy, he's just a guy who came up with an algorithm for prospects at a time when the hockey draft and mathematical sports analysis were both getting really hot.

That being said, Bader actively roots against prospects who prove his model wrong, which is difficult because so many prospects, especially defensemen, do exactly this. When he finally quits -- which is usually not until a prospect he dismissed as not-that-good is universally recognized as very good -- he tries to make it seem like some sort of anomaly. Like: "my model is perfect, but gosh some guys just beat the odds!" Which is all well and good when Wyatt Johnston becomes a star, but not so much when a prospect the entire world except for him was high on, like with Brady Tkachuk or Cale Makar or whomever.

With Mukhamadullin, Bader might not know he's on San Jose since he gets all his player information from one single website (eliteprospects.com) and they don't often post transaction news. Did you check his Devils rankings? Bader might still be under the impression he's a NJ prospect.

Good list, I agree with most of this as my list is fairly similar. Having 2 of arguably the top 3 D-men prospects is awesome. Especially since they haven’t even joined full time yet. Good times ahead with Luke and Simon.

I’m struggling with Jiricek/Nemec. They’re close, but Nemec’s end to the season and 5v5 scoring sways me his way right now. Jiricek got the vast majority of his points on the PP this year, while Nemec got limited time. I also tend to value elite skating, transition play and high IQ with offensive D-men and I feel Nemec fits this description better. Jiricek has the better shot and is more physical though.
Aw crap, I just realized I forgot Miroschnichenko on this list. This is why I shouldn't do things off the top of my head.
 
Seeing how it's tough to hate someone when you don't even know what they look like, I doubt Bader hates any hockey player. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if Bader is the guy you go watch a hockey game with and you have to explain what "icing" is for the entire first period. I'm not sure he's ever watched a hockey game. He's not a particularly bright guy, he's just a guy who came up with an algorithm for prospects at a time when the hockey draft and mathematical sports analysis were both getting really hot.

That being said, Bader actively roots against prospects who prove his model wrong, which is difficult because so many prospects, especially defensemen, do exactly this. When he finally quits -- which is usually not until a prospect he dismissed as not-that-good is universally recognized as very good -- he tries to make it seem like some sort of anomaly. Like: "my model is perfect, but gosh some guys just beat the odds!" Which is all well and good when Wyatt Johnston becomes a star, but not so much when a prospect the entire world except for him was high on, like with Brady Tkachuk or Cale Makar or whomever.

With Mukhamadullin, Bader might not know he's on San Jose since he gets all his player information from one single website (eliteprospects.com) and they don't often post transaction news. Did you check his Devils rankings? Bader might still be under the impression he's a NJ prospect.


Aw crap, I just realized I forgot Miroschnichenko on this list. This is why I shouldn't do things off the top of my head.
Thankfully we have a number of folks who contribute here that help the lame and the sick (cough cough - like me - cough cough) avoid the fetid filth of lowest common denominator nuber crunching alone that masquerades as prospect evaluation.
 
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There’s a LOT of value in modeling prospect performance.

But anybody worth an absolute damn knows it’s just part of the bigger picture. There’s a ton of model dudes out there who get it. Bader ain’t one of them though.

This is the major reason I dislike Bader. It's one thing to be wrong, data scientists know we can't perfectly model anything, let alone complex events like hockey games or seasons. Being wrong is part of the game.

But it's clear that he is epically, catastrophically wrong at a rate worse than chance, and never admits fault or uncertainty with his models, even when it's obvious that he's wrong from the outset. Being a contrarian can be great, but only when your view is supported by the data.

Dopes like that who are so confidently wrong without understanding context are what give analytics a bad name, and I resent it.
 
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If I had to put my money on anyone to win the Calder, I would go with Fantilli. I don't really know the situation in Columbus but if he starts out playing alongside Laine and Gaudreau those are two elite wingers that he can complement perfectly with his skillset. Bedard is amazing and I think he's gonna have a stellar campaign as well but Chicago has an absolutely pitiful roster. Fantilli is just in a better situation right off the bat if he wins that #1C spot. Don't know what his odds will be but I would probably drop some money on those.
Fantili is a great prospect but I think there's going to be a bit of a learning curve for him, whereas Bedard is much more NHL ready (at least in terms of offensive game) and getting to play top line minutes and PP1 even on an awful roster will allow him to put up really good point totals.
 
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Does anyone know when the prospect development camp is this year ? I've gone to it pretty much every year since 2015. I would go the last few years with a friend of mine who is a STH but me and him don't talk anymore. Was curious if it is coming up this week as they usually have it 2 weeks after the draft. It'd usually a STH event only event but I believe they let people in for the 3 on 3 tournament. It's always a good time and is fun to see our newest prospects live for the first time. Great day to get autographs too. If anyone has a spare ticket they would want to sell/giveaway I would be interested. Haven't seen anything posted on the Devils social media about it yet.
 
Does anyone know when the prospect development camp is this year ? I've gone to it pretty much every year since 2015. I would go the last few years with a friend of mine who is a STH but me and him don't talk anymore. Was curious if it is coming up this week as they usually have it 2 weeks after the draft. It'd usually a STH event only event but I believe they let people in for the 3 on 3 tournament. It's always a good time and is fun to see our newest prospects live for the first time. Great day to get autographs too. If anyone has a spare ticket they would want to sell/giveaway I would be interested. Haven't seen anything posted on the Devils social media about it yet.
July 10-14th
 
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Does anyone know when the prospect development camp is this year ? I've gone to it pretty much every year since 2015. I would go the last few years with a friend of mine who is a STH but me and him don't talk anymore. Was curious if it is coming up this week as they usually have it 2 weeks after the draft. It'd usually a STH event only event but I believe they let people in for the 3 on 3 tournament. It's always a good time and is fun to see our newest prospects live for the first time. Great day to get autographs too. If anyone has a spare ticket they would want to sell/giveaway I would be interested. Haven't seen anything posted on the Devils social media about it yet.
 
This is the major reason I dislike Bader. It's one thing to be wrong, data scientists know we can't perfectly model anything, let alone complex events like hockey games or seasons. Being wrong is part of the game.

But it's clear that he is epically, catastrophically wrong at a rate worse than chance, and never admits fault or uncertainty with his models, even when it's obvious that he's wrong from the outset. Being a contrarian can be great, but only when your view is supported by the data.

Dopes like that who are so confidently wrong without understanding context are what give analytics a bad name, and I resent it.
More over, people are not wrong from the begging. At least not categorical ones. When I personally talk about prospect in the past drafts, I always talking about pros and cons. What kind of work specific player should do to be NHLer\better NHLer\successful NHLer etc. For example just look at Wood(not Miles) from past draft. If he can fix his skating, he is better player than most from top-10. Easily. The question is will he fix it or not or how far he will go with fixing it. Some players just can`t translate, some can join the team with bad development system or with bad partners, wrong coach, etc. There are tonns of conditions. There are no truth in the draft day. Ofcourse I can understand that someone can be right especially with some player(like I was with Mercer from the beggining, my little crown, how I like that I can`t even describe) but overall - when I wasn`t high on Rossi, I do know sh`t about covid and how hard it will punish him, when I was higher on Stuzle than Laf or Byfield, I know about Stuzle, but I didn`t know he will play center role in NHL, I didn`t expect that Blake will decide to make fake rebuild in LA, and of course in the moment I didn`t know(but I could) that rangers will ruin development of every left handed winger they drafted in the first round. Now I know it, so I don`t expect much from Perrault. I easily can imagine Raymond could be silent in Los Angeles, Mercer was lucky to get into the Devils squad. And Holtz could find his groove if he hadn`t play for his life in 7 minutes stretch.
And of course when guy like Bader is talking about draft like he has the Bible and he knows that specific pick was a sin, and he has a proof in script, of course he can go love himself with eliteprospect crew, who had list of "no draft" players, one of them was Shakir.


May be we will talk more about "IF" in context of young players and will rank what player actually has, what kind of job he will make and how big and realistic this "if" is. I believe all kind of advenced stats existed when Macelli was drafted.
 
Vanecek is very likely going back the other way in any Hellebuyck deal, so retention isn't really a big issue.
We can do it without retention but I would insist on retention + Vanecek going to WPG so we can have more cap flexibility to make other moves at trade deadline.
 
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