I don't think it will happen in the near future.
MAF is still like over 150-some odd wins away and is 38 years old.
He didn't look like he had much gas left last year and is pretty washed up himself. Not Quick level washed up. I don't think anyone has been since maybe Barrasso or Vernon in the early 00's. But still fairly washed up in his own right.
I do remember a stat back in the 2011-2012 season that then-27 year old Fleury had almost as many wins as Brodeur had when he was 27. Fleury seems like he could pass Roy soon, depending how long it takes him to get another 10 or 12 wins or whatever it is. He turns 39 in November.
Brodeur passed Roy in March of 2009, just before he turned 37 years old. Brodeur hadn't yet missed that entire year lockout when he was 27 years old. MAF would wind up missing roughly half a season's worth of lockout in his 28 year old season.
Out of active goalies, I would say Vasilevskiy has the best chance at breaking the record. Him starting so early (debuted in the league full time at 20 years old) may also help that, as opposed to goalies that don't break into the league until they're 23.
But say he averages 35 wins per year over the next 5 seasons, that will put him at 438 wins right before he turns 34 years old.
But also, anything could happen. Goalies are starting to fall apart younger than they were.
Vasilevskiy could be horrible by the time he's 33 or god forbid, chronic injuries could even cause him to be out of active hockey. If you had told anyone in 2017 that Holtby only has 5 more years left in the league and wouldn't play past age 32, not many people would have believed you or taken that bet.
I also had Quick projected for at least 450 wins back in 2015 0r 2016, by the time his career ended. That's totally not how it's going to turn out for him. He's gonna struggle and badly humiliate himself in his quest to 400.
The fact that a goalie like fluery imo can come close to the record just shows how in reach it is
It’s not in reach though, 147 wins is not happening at age 38.
In the last 30 years, four goalies have won 30 games in a season at age 38 or over:
That’s it.
Hell, only 7 guys did it at age 36-37. (And two of them are on the 1st list.)
To even have a theoretical shot Fleury needs to win +30 games next season and that’s not happening. And after he did that, he would be 39 and still need a 100 something wins.
Marty’s late run (43 W at 33, 48 W at 34, 44 W at 35, 45 at 37) is just the killing blow to all challengers too.
The top wins per season for a goalie over 30 in the last 30 years:
So Vasi could do it, in the sense that he’s not hopelessly behind yet, but he only has 38% of Brodeur’s totals wins so far.
Goalies are going to keep coming up short for some reason because no one will play nearly as much, without injury, on a perennial winner that long and that constantly well.
One element is going to miss, the most obvious being less games. Fleury is actually extraordinary for how close he’s come.
He’s basically a mutant with his flexibility, it’s bonkers how healthy he’s been.
MAF was a 1OA pick who played in the NHL since he was 19 and he’s been on a playoff team every season since he was 22.
MAF’s 4th all time on Games Played by a goalie (985), 44 games behind Roy (1029) and 59 games behind Luongo (1044). He might move up there.
He can also catch Roy in wins (551) with 7 more.
With GP, Vasi has 425 GP at age 28.
MAF had 468 GP (+43) at age 28 and then played 518 more games.
Brodeur had 519 GP (+88) at age 28 and then played 747 more games.
With GP, Fleury has 986 GP at age 38.
Brodeur had 1,133 GP (+147) at age 38 and then played 134 more games.
