Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season begins!

[Hisch13r]

I might be incorrect in my recollection (someone tell me if I am) but well it worked for the Rags several seasons ago as it got them to the ECF at least.

Maybe it works for us the same way and then some?

Well they also had the goaltending to pull that off.

 

[Devs3cups]

Not worried at all about our 5v5 game. 9th in xGF%, 1st in SCF%, 11th in HDCF%.

 

[Hisch13r]

Not worried at all about our 5v5 game. 9th in xGF%, 1st in SCF%, 11th in HDCF%.

NST is more favorable to us than other models. 16th in xG% on TopDownHockey. 15th on both EvolvingHockey and Money Puck. It should get better but it's a problem now. Part of the problem is Smith who won't be a problem when it matters. He's 36-37% across the board on all of NST, EH, and MP. Then there's guys like Timo and Mercer who have been nowhere near good enough and should be better. Timo's got a 41% xG on MP and 40% on EH. Mercer 47% and 46%. Mercer should at least get to the point where he should be treading water. Timo should be a dominant playdriving force. Nico will also need to be better and should be.

 

[Devs3cups]

NST is more favorable to us than other models. 16th in xG% on TopDownHockey. 15th on both EvolvingHockey and Money Puck. It should get better but it's a problem now. Part of the problem is Smith who won't be a problem when it matters. He's 36-37% across the board on all of NST, EH, and MP. Then there's guys like Timo and Mercer who have been nowhere near good enough and should be better. Timo's got a 41% xG on MP and 40% on EH. Mercer 47% and 46%. Mercer should at least get to the point where he should be treading water. Timo should be a dominant playdriving force. Nico will also need to be better and should be.

Yeah, Smith drags it down quite a bit. Timo is picking it up lately I feel like, he’ll get there. Same with Nico and Mercdawg. We have to start somewhere!

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

There are plenty of guys that we expect more from that should get the flow of play numbers where we want them if they turn it around. The PK remains my biggest potential concern, even ahead of goaltending. It is nice having a deadly PP to bail the team out for once, though.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

He's got 37% xG... I thought Smith was going to be fine this year but he very clearly isn't. Bahl is the next worst D and he's over 50%. Smith has been incomprehensibly bad. I wouldn't want him even as a 7D with how he's played. This isn't an NHLer. Okhotyuk in his 10 games last year managed a 54.5% xG. Smith was 57.5%.

And Mercer’s been one of the worst forwards in the league so far. I’m not gonna base my decision of whether a player is an NHLer or not on 10 games at the start of a season that’s been thrown into chaos by injuries and roster turnover.

Smith is a capable 6/7 the same way Mercer is a capable top-6 forward despite the fact that they’re both clearly going through a rough stretch while the team struggles to put a consistent game plan together.

 

[Zippy316]

There is absolutely 0 reason Mercer should be getting the minutes he is right now. You don't try to get players going by moving them up in the lineup. Ruff sat Marino for playing far less badly than Mercer and Meier for playing roughly as bad. Why are we holding Mercer to a completely different standard than these players right now? He needs to see the press box for a game to get it through to him to get his head out of his ass.

Mercer has gotten a ton of minutes because he’s ended up out on the PK for some of the marathon shifts. Last game he had at least two 1:30+ shifts on the PK and was used to end the game on the 6-on-4. It’s more been a matter of defensive usage for him.

Marino was sat for making boneheaded plays. Mercer hasn’t been making boneheaded plays, he’s just been struggling to generate anything so far this year. It’s not due to a lack of effort or else he wouldn’t be used in key defensive situations.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

At Mercer's age and apparent skill we have seen you let him work through it if he's not costing you goals against or penalties. Let him chew through the slump and catch fire. A couple assists could easily get him back on track.

 

[Hisch13r]

And Mercer’s been one of the worst forwards in the league so far. I’m not gonna base my decision of whether a player is an NHLer or not on 10 games at the start of a season that’s been thrown into chaos by injuries and roster turnover.

Smith is a capable 6/7 the same way Mercer is a capable top-6 forward despite the fact that they’re both clearly going through a rough stretch while the team struggles to put a consistent game plan together.

Smith WAS a capable 6/7D. Smith might not be one anymore. It's nowhere near uncommon for guys to fall off a cliff when they hit 34. I don't how you could just be so convinced this stretch is a rough patch rather than close to his new normal when he's 34 and been THIS BAD. Like how do you not even question it?? I'm also not fully convinced Mercer is a top 6 forward yet. He was last year but he might be more of a middle 6er currently than a full fledged top 6.

Mercer has gotten a ton of minutes because he’s ended up out on the PK for some of the marathon shifts. Last game he had at least two 1:30+ shifts on the PK and was used to end the game on the 6-on-4.

Marino was sat for making boneheaded plays. Mercer hasn’t been making boneheaded plays, he’s just been struggling to generate anything so far this year. It’s not due to a lack of effort.

This makes no sense. If anything Mercer getting a ton of PK time would logically result in a decrease in 5v5 time.

 

[Bleedred]

34 is not young. It's young to someone like me and probably many of us on this board. 34 is a young man in society, especially in this day and age, where people are living to be 80+ years old pretty regularly.

34 is an old man in hockey and most pro sports. PK Subban is younger than Brendan Smith and is now in his second year of retirement. I would be surprised if Brendan Smith isn't in the top 50-60 oldest players in the league. I'm gonna look that up in a minute on cap friendly.

So yeah, pretty good chance he's close to toast. this small a sample size isn't worrying for most players who are a reasonable age in the league. Even if it were an elite/once elite player that was older and had this kind of a start, I wouldn't be as quick to write him off, but Smith has been declining for several years now. He was a pretty good top-4 defenseman at that time the Rangers signed him, but he was about 27-28 then?

 

[forceten]

At Mercer's age and apparent skill we have seen you let him work through it if he's not costing you goals against or penalties. Let him chew through the slump and catch fire. A couple assists could easily get him back on track.

 

[RememberTheName]

Mercer has gotten a ton of minutes because he’s ended up out on the PK for some of the marathon shifts. Last game he had at least two 1:30+ shifts on the PK and was used to end the game on the 6-on-4. It’s more been a matter of defensive usage for him.

Marino was sat for making boneheaded plays. Mercer hasn’t been making boneheaded plays, he’s just been struggling to generate anything so far this year. It’s not due to a lack of effort or else he wouldn’t be used in key defensive situations.

The graph above deals solely with 5v5 usage, as were Cordell's comments about him having the second-lowest 5v5 shot contributions per game. His increased PK usage should theoretically decrease his 5v5 usage, but instead, he still has the 3rd most 5v5 usage per game.

I do agree that he doesn't have any boneheaded plays. However, if you are being trotted out the 3rd most of any forward 5v5 and you are generating less offense than known offensive dynamos Curtis Lazar and Nate Bastian, people are going to take issue with that. Also, I think its important to note that he can't really have any boneheaded plays because he is just doing so little with the puck on his stick. Making a boneheaded play would first require him doing something offensively with the puck on his stick to get into a dangerous position and then f***ing shit up. He looks like a deer in headlights every time the puck is on his stick and is basically an automatic play killer in the offensive zone right now.

 

[Bleedred]

I think Smith is the 51st oldest player in the league this year

He's listed as 55th oldest, but that includes guys like Brent Seabrook, Shea Weber, Carey Price, Bryan Little. Guys that are technically under contract to play in the league this year, but who we all know are never gonna play again and for all intents and purposes are no longer active players.

This list also includes at least one guy that's signed to a two way deal, but is playing in the AHL and hasn't played a game in the NHL this year. Alex Stalock, Matt Irwin, Taylor Fedun, Brad Hunt, Steven Kampfer. All guys on two way contracts, but listed as playing 0 NHL games this year. All are in the AHL or possibly even call ups that have been healthy scratched.

Pacioretty is also older than Smith and he's listed as having 0 games played this year. I guess he's injured (what else is new?) again.

So basically only 45 guys older than Smith have played an NHL game this year. And there's like 700-800 players who will play at least one NHL game this year?

 

[KovalchukFistPump]

I think Smith is the 51st oldest player in the league this year

He's listed as 55th oldest, but that includes guys like Brent Seabrook, Shea Weber, Carey Price, Bryan Little. Guys that are technically under contract to play in this year, but who we all know are never gonna play again and for all intents and purposes are no longer active players.

This list also includes at least one guy that's signed to a two way deal, but is playing in the AHL and hasn't played a game in the NHL this year. Alex Stalock, Matt Irwin, Taylor Fedun, Brad Hunt, Steven Kampfer. All guys on two way contracts, but listed as playing 0 NHL games this year. All are in the AHL or possibly even call ups that have been healthy scratched.

Pacioretty is also older than Smith and he's listed as having 0 games played this year. I guess he's injured (what else is new?) again.

So basically only 45 guys older than Smith have played an NHL game this year. And there's like 700-800 players who will play at least one NHL game this year?

Whatever he is, he's done. But he's also only here as a stopgap to avoid throwing Luke and Nemec out there at the same time until they gather some cap space to get someone better at the deadline.

At Mercer's age and apparent skill we have seen you let him work through it if he's not costing you goals against or penalties. Let him chew through the slump and catch fire. A couple assists could easily get him back on track.

Also his year 3 season is the best time for this team to have a slump. Get him signed to a cheaper bridge deal before he breaks out. We will need all the cap room we can get to go for a Cup, with LHughes needing a big raise after next year and the possibility of a need to pay some money to a goalie.

 

[Hisch13r]

Whatever he is, he's done. But he's also only here as a stopgap to avoid throwing Luke and Nemec out there at the same time until they gather some cap space to get someone better at the deadline.

If the thought is "can't play two rookies" then that's dumb because there's not a chance in hell Nemec would be worse. Shouldn't matter they're "rookies". The only real reason to be keeping Nemec down would be you think it's better for his development to spend most of the year down there. I also doubt they're adding a D unless Miller just never gets healthy or back to his previous level.

 

[Hisch13r]

pP1 NePo BaBy

Whatever he is, he's done. But he's also only here as a stopgap to avoid throwing Luke and Nemec out there at the same time until they gather some cap space to get someone better at the deadline.


Also his year 3 season is the best time for this team to have a slump. Get him signed to a cheaper bridge deal before he breaks out. We will need all the cap room we can get to go for a Cup, with LHughes needing a big raise after next year and the possibility of a need to pay some money to a goalie.

A cheaper bridge deal before he signs out would literally be awful. Then we'd be signing him when the cap is much higher and we'd have to pay him much more. Him not sucking and getting him long term around 6 is what we should want. Not like 4 mil for a couple years

 

[RememberTheName]

 

[theoptimist]

Some folks dislike Smith and wish Luke had a “real partner.” These same folks will be surprised to find out that Smith is the interim plan and Luke will do better on his own (with more than just 9 regular season games played). Wait for it

 

[Hisch13r]

Some folks dislike Smith and wish Luke had a “real partner.” These same folks will be surprised to find out that Smith is the interim plan and Luke will do better on his own (with more than just 9 regular season games played). Wait for it

Quite literally everyone knows Smith is an interim plan. Luke's is already better on his own (even with 9 regular season games played) a 36% xG with Smith and a 74% without him He was never even supposed to be the 6D. He was supposed to be the 7D. It was supposed to be Miller as the 6D. Then he had a tragic preseason and got hurt when the season started. The point here is that Smith might not even be a viable 7D anymore and his time as an NHL caliber player might be over.

 

[KovalchukFistPump]

If the thought is "can't play two rookies" then that's dumb because there's not a chance in hell Nemec would be worse. Shouldn't matter they're "rookies". The only real reason to be keeping Nemec down would be you think it's better for his development to spend most of the year down there. I also doubt they're adding a D unless Miller just never gets healthy or back to his previous level.

They will add a D at the deadline. Whether that's for depth or if it's a Lindholm/Josh Manson type acquisition remains to be seen.

 

[Bleedred]

Right now we have no one better than Smith to play (unless you think Nemec is coming up) for us with Miller injured. But even before Miller got injured they were playing Smith over him. This may not have continued if Miller hadn't gotten hurt in practice. I think we were only 4 games in when that happened and Ruff did seem like he was at least considering Miller to play when asked if he was a possibility for the next game, but he got hurt before the next game happened.

Cal Foote is completely terrible. Plenty of bad players get signed every year to play in the NHL, but Foote wasn't even signed by a team to play in the NHL this year, and he's only 24 years old and is a former fairly high first round pick from only 6 years ago.

Even I was surprised he wasn't signed by someone who really bought some of how he was being used in Tampa, but this is definitely a case where his value on the market was completely reflective of who he is as a player. Which is a pretty bad one at the NHL level.

 

[AfroThunder396]

34 is not young. It's young to someone like me and probably many of us on this board. 34 is a young man in society, especially in this day and age, where people are living to be 80+ years old pretty regularly.

34 is an old man in hockey and most pro sports. PK Subban is younger than Brendan Smith and is now in his second year of retirement. I would be surprised if Brendan Smith isn't in the top 50-60 oldest players in the league. I'm gonna look that up in a minute on cap friendly.

So yeah, pretty good chance he's close to toast. this small a sample size isn't worrying for most players who are a reasonable age in the league. Even if it were an elite/once elite player that was older and had this kind of a start, I wouldn't be as quick to write him off, but Smith has been declining for several years now. He was a pretty good top-4 defenseman at that time the Rangers signed him, but he was about 27-28 then?

Brendan Smith is the 39th oldest player to play a game this season.

 

[britdevil]

Our defensive game and goaltending has been pretty awful.

At least they are winning games.

 

[Hisch13r]

They will add a D at the deadline. Whether that's for depth or if it's a Lindholm/Josh Manson type acquisition remains to be seen.

They specifically didn't add D last deadline because they had Luke lying in wait. If Miller is what Miller should be then they're not going to add a D because they have Nemec.

 

[Bleedred]

Brendan Smith is the 39th oldest player to play a game this season.

I'm getting 45th by going to cap friendly and filtering by age.

Is it possible he's the 39th oldest skater to play a game this season?

I already see about 6 goalies older than him who have played at least one game in the NHL this year.