Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season begins!

[devilsblood]

I think it's pretty clear the Mercer - Haula - Holtz line just isn't working. We might have to get creative with our lines to solve some of our issues up front.

Here are some of my thoughts. There are 4 broad the tenants I think we should try to stick to:

1) Put Jack and Bratt back together.

Look at their numbers together at 5v5 since 2021-22 (source):​

• Jack with Bratt: 3.92 xGF/60, 62.6% xG% (870 mins)
• Jack w/o Bratt: 2.75 xGF/60, 52.1% xG% (1,177 mins)
• Bratt w/o Jack: 3.18 xGF/60, 54.4% xG% (1,351 mins)

3.87 xGF/60 would be 1st in the league for a single forward over that span. Auston Matthews was at 3.55 xGF/60, McDavid was at 3.48 xGF/60.​

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You can also see how much Jack's xGF/60 falls off without Bratt (43% drop from 3.92 -> 2.75). And Jack elevates Bratt as well.​

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Meanwhile, Bratt and Hischier don't have nearly the same magic, as Bratt's presence doesn't impact Nico's xGF nearly as much (xGF/60 only drops 19% from 3.42 -> 2.86). And Bratt's numbers are actually better without Nico (source):​

• Nico with Bratt: 3.42 xGF/60, 58.0% xG% (854 mins)
• Nico w/o Bratt: 2.86 xGF/60, 55.9% xG% (1,240 mins)
• Bratt w/o Nico: 3.51 xGF/60, 57.6% xG% (1,367 mins)

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2) Surround Nico with heavy, defensively responsible wingers.

Instead of Bratt, give Nico Toffoli.​

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I know Toffoli has looked great with Jack, and I like that option, but there's already been a handful of times where he was a step to slow to keep up with Jack. All things being equal, if it's one of Bratt or Toffoli with Jack, I'd take Bratt every time. I think moving TT to play with Nico gives us more balance. And TT + Jack is something we can always go back to.​

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Palat - Hischier - Toffoli feels like a really well balanced line that can match up against other team's top lines. We don't need a ton of offense from this line, but if they defend as well as they should, I would expect a fair amount of scoring. All 3 of those guys are very opportunistic scorers.​

3) Put Meier on his "own line" with guys that thrive on the forecheck.

Meier is best served on his own line IMO. He's the type of guy who excels when given the chance to create his own shot, and he's at his best when he's the go to option on his line while still being able to crash and bang on the forecheck. I think letting him play bash brothers with Bastian & McLeod will give him the chance to be his line's go-to offensive player. Bastian - McLeod - Meier could be a really tough line to matchup against.​

4. Give Jack & Bratt a heady winger who can help on draws, be first on the forecheck, and get to the net.

Mercer fits the bill here IMO. He can better match the speed of Jack and Jesper, is great on the forecheck, goes to the net hard, and is smart enough to hang with those two. Plus he should be able to win ~45% of his faceoffs, a nice improvement over Jack at the moment.​

Based on those core concepts, here is what I came up with:

Mercer - Hughes - Bratt
Palat - Hischier - Toffoli
Bastian - McLeod - Meier
Nosek - Haula - Lazar/Holtz

I don't think Holtz has done enough to warrant playing time, honestly. He can make some nice passes from time to time, but he's so weak on the forecheck and a defensive liability. I'd rather have a 4th line with veterans who can be relied on defensively and forecheck consistently.

Defensively, we're a mess. Siegenthaler - Hamilton has been bleeding chances, and Hughes - Smith has been awful as well. I'd like to see us experiment more with a Luke - Hamilton pairing on a more permanent basis. There numbers together have been pretty great, though obviously it's a small sample and they are usually only put together when we are pressing for a goal. But I do like the idea of Hughes' skating being able to cover for a lot of the over aggressive pinches Dougie makes.

I think this could be interesting:

Hughes - Hamilton
Bahl - Marino
Siegs - Smith (eventually Nemec)

Siegs - Marino really hasn't worked as a pair in the past, so I think we keep Bahl with Marino for now, as that seems to be working okay.

A meier-mcleod-bastian line? Thinking way outside the box.

I kind of like the idea but doubt we will ever see it.

 

[Ripshot 43]

A meier-mcleod-bastian line? Thinking way outside the box.

I kind of like the idea but doubt we will ever see it.

Meier getting 10 minutes a night isn’t the way to get him more goals. I say we play him on defense instead

 

[StevensRocks]

Holtz ramping his game nicely. Staying in the flow better. Forechecking better. Not good yet, but ramping.

Great playmaker…

 

[devilsblood]

Meier getting 10 minutes a night isn’t the way to get him more goals. I say we play him on defense instead

Ya TOI would be the square peg in the round hole consideration.

But could they mix and match lines, which they do anyway and play Meier with McLeod part of the time? They could but i still doubt it.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Lines are being galaxy brained too much. Just put Meier on the third line with Mercer and Haula. He can finally drive a line on his own and he has enough play making skill to maybe get Dawson going. Give Holtz a chance in the top 6 since he’s been doing the “little things” right.

Doesn’t seem that complicated to me but what do I know.

 

[Hisch13r]

I loved the way Mercer was playing last year, but very little about his game screams "I'm going to carry Haula and Holtz when Haula is also underperforming and Holtz is still figuring it out." If he's playing LW anyway I would prefer he gets some more time with Hischier and Palat gets moved down.

He doesn’t need to carry them. How about just look like the best player on the line rather than the worst?? He’s getting outplayed by f***ing Holtz and it hasn’t even been close. He’s the worst player on the team so far. That’s unacceptable

 

[Ripshot 43]

I forgot to celebrate my 9k “liked” post milestone!

With that said, I would like to thank @Its Always Sundstrom for 8K of them

I appreciate you

 

[Guadana]

I forgot to celebrate my 9k “liked” post milestone!

With that said, I would like to thank @Its Always Sundstrom for 8K of them

I appreciate you

He is the sponsor for every nice person. Patron of the good. If @Its Always Sundstrom doesn't like your posts, look in the mirror at yourself and think - what have you done wrong with your life.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Meier getting 10 minutes a night isn’t the way to get him more goals. I say we play him on defense instead

I think you could roll that line like a 2B line and give him 13-14 mins at 5v5 + a few minutes on the PP. McLeod was getting tons of ice time in the playoffs.

 

[SJinNewJersey]

 

[Whaddagoal]

Dougie and Bratt have produced, Toffoli, Timo and Nico are starting to find their game these last 2-3 games, so I’m not sure where the “it’s only Jack” narrative is coming from.

Jack is producing at an absurd 3 PPG clip, so it’s easy to think he’s the only one, but he’s not. He’s the only one (in the league) to do it to that extent, but it doesn’t mean others aren’t producing or starting to produce and find their groove.

You’d like more from Mercer, Palat, Haula and maybe a few points from the 4th line, but I’m not worried about them clicking eventually.

Thank you for this post.

We have team production from forwards right now, except from a select few right and you mentioned the key missing contributors. (Mercer and Palat). Any 4th line contributions are icing on the cake as is always the case. Nico and Meier are warming up and Haulas been injured so we can give him the benefit of the doubt for a few more games if he is not sitting again.

Jack is producing at literally a ridiculous rate so it sways the scales.

 

[The Wumpus]

It's funny looking around the league to see how other stars are doing and being like "Pssh, 8pts in 6gms"

 

[Whaddagoal]

I forgot to celebrate my 9k “liked” post milestone!

With that said, I would like to thank @Its Always Sundstrom for 8K of them

I appreciate you

Is there a way on here to see the likes breakdown stats or graph by liking poster... that would be great.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

what in the hell dude

 

[Devils731]

Let’s see if these lines stick for the actual game.

I do think it’s a good idea to change “something” for Mercer just to let his mind get a bit of a reset but I don’t know that moving him to center is the solution.

I do prefer some change to Mercer to no change, so moving him to center for a game isn’t preferred but better than nothing.

 

[MasterofGrond]

FREE LUKE

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

what in the hell dude

 

[Ripshot 43]

Let’s see if these lines stick for the actual game.

I do think it’s a good idea to change “something” for Mercer just to let his mind get a bit of a reset but I don’t know that moving him to center is the solution.

I do prefer some change to Mercer to no change, so moving him to center for a game isn’t preferred but better than nothing.

Is it just me or is Haula putting himself into spots to get trucked once or twice a game this season?

 

[Cheddabombs]

#FreeHoltz

 

[Clam Jensen]

Excited for Luke V Owen tonight.

 

[Whaddagoal]

Hmm. Mercer to center.........

I'd prefer to move McLeod up vs Lazar but I guess there are "Reasons".

I don't think holtz needed a demotion either. Id rather see Mercer see a game on 4th just to light a spark for motivation back up.

 

[R8Devs]

Hmm. Mercer to center.........

I'd prefer to move McLeod up vs Lazar but I guess there are "Reasons".

I don't think holtz needed a demotion either. Id rather see Mercer see a game on 4th just to light a spark for motivation back up.

there's probably a better chance for Holtz to get more ice time with Mcleod than with the way Haula/Mercer are playing rn and Mcleod at the moment is better at carrying the puck/breaking it out so it could help him too. Wouldn't be really surprised if that line is actually the 'third' line in ice time.

 

[Devs3cups]

 

[Rhodes 81]

I normally don't care too much about lines but what in the hell are we doing here? Holtz has been the best player on his line (Not saying much) so he gets demoted? Just don't get that.

 

[Devs3cups]

Don’t really mind the lines. The 4th line has been buzzing, with Holtz scoring touch they could maybe do some good.

Mercer at C is probably just a shake up, takes some load off Haula who has struggled a bit and Lazar has been very good on the forecheck.

As for the D pairs, I wouldn’t be surprised if they changed as the game goes on.