Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season begins!

[guitarguyvic]

Every game is always going to be different , but the trend of slow starts dates back to last season. The team is basically the same as last year with the additions of Toffoli , Nosek , Miller etc. Nosek and Miller combined have only played like 1 or 2 games. Toffoli has been awesome so far too.

I still don't understand how one of the youngest and arguably fastest team in the league comes out the gate slow to start every game. Slow starts cost you games and points. Ruff has to find a way to get them to play a better 60 minutes. I like the fact that the team still battles back and has success even when trailing. It shows they compete and don't get rattled to much. If you don't count the empty net goal , every game so far this season has been a 1 goal game. If we weren't so bad in the shootout the record could be 4-2-0 and would have us at the top of our division. The start to the season just feels a bit worse dude to the high expectations. There is still alot to be pretty happy about.

I think things feel worse because the team is not playing well, the W/L results are whatever. If it wasn't for Jack, we could be staring down the barrel of a six game losing streak to start the season. That's pretty damn bad, new expectations or not. There's way too much talent on this roster to be relying that heavily on one guy, and if it keeps up they'll be nothing more than a bubble team. Heaven help us if he were to get injured and the rest of the team keeps playing this way.

I expect it to get better because there's just no reason to believe that talented players are suddenly turning into pumpkins. If it does somehow continue beyond 10-20 games, the eye has to be strictly on the coaching. There's absolutely no excuse for them looking this discombobulated for an extended period of time.

Either way I still have no reason to believe Lindy is the answer long-term. This group likely will need a fresh, simpler approach that better balances their individual talents with responsible team play. Especially in their own end and with breakouts.

 

[Guttersniped]

Jack officially signed his ELC on July 12 a few weeks after the draft. I don't remember any rumblings about Jack going to college in 2019 since he would have been a high profile recruit who would have committed before the draft. If Quinn had still been at Michigan for 2019-20, maybe that would have been more alluring option for Jack. But Quinn signed with Vancouver in March 2019.

U-M admissions preventing Jack Hughes, Bode Wilde from playing at Michigan | mgoblog

Think they were both fine students. But hockey with as much change in schools for the players as they jump junior programs can complicate transcripts and admissions.

mgoblog.com

Jack actually tried to get into Michigan for the 2018-19 season a la Zach Werenski who played for the Wolverines during his draft year. But he would have almost needed to cram two years of school into one and it didn't work out.

Quinn, Jack Hughes: The present, and maybe future, of Michigan hockey

Michigan defenseman Quinn Hughes is expected to be a top 15 pick in the NHL draft in June. Jack Hughes could be the No.1 pick in the 2019 draft.

www.freep.com

I had no recollection that Jack tried to get into the OHL early.

I never knew that about Jack.

I had an annoying exchange about Luke and Quinn that still bothers me on the prospects board.

There’s a 10 month and 26 day difference between Quinn’s and Luke’s birthdays. One of the oldest and youngest players in each of those drafts. It makes sense to compare their 1st year in the NCAA rather than make a D+1 comparison.

The poster argued that age doesn’t matter with blue chip prospects and Luke could have went to college a year early like Zach Werenski. I mean, yes, he could have but who cares lol.

My point isn’t that Luke needed to get a year in at Michigan before the draft for other people’s benefit. He was a bit of a late bloomer because of his growth spurt, I don’t see skipping a year of the NTDP/USHL benefiting him.

And more development time is more development time no matter the player.

I realize this might be mind-numbing uninteresting but that argument still bugs me. (And I’m right grr lol.)

 

[Bleedred]

I think things feel worse because the team is not playing well, the W/L results are whatever. If it wasn't for Jack, we could be staring down the barrel of a six game losing streak to start the season. That's pretty damn bad, new expectations or not. There's way too much talent on this roster to be relying that heavily on one guy, and if it keeps up they'll be nothing more than a bubble team. Heaven help us if he were to get injured and the rest of the team keeps playing this way.

I expect it to get better because there's just no reason to believe that talented players are suddenly turning into pumpkins. If it does somehow continue beyond 10-20 games, the eye has to be strictly on the coaching. There's absolutely no excuse for them looking this discombobulated for an extended period of time.

Either way I still have no reason to believe Lindy is the answer long-term. This group likely will need a fresh, simpler approach that better balances their individual talents with responsible team play. Especially in their own end and with breakouts.

I'm not sure Lindy is the answer either, but I'm also very sure Travis Green is not.

He could be fine as an assistant, but really shouldn't be head coach after Ruff's tenure ends. I fear that he will be, unless someone else likes him enough to scoop him up first.

Maybe someone will hire him this coming offseason like they did with Brunette this past offseason. Vancouver was apparently very worried Seattle was gonna scoop him up back in 2021, because he didn't have a contract for 2021-2022 until after the season ended and was close to becoming a free agent. Not sure if there was legit reason to believe Seattle would want him or not. Brind'Amour was another name going into that year that didn't have a contract, but got one before he became a free agent. Seattle hired Hakstol not too long after those guys were re-upped with the teams they were already with.

And of course, he was canned about a month into his deal.

Early returns on the power play look good, but if there's one thing I'm questioning so far this season about the coaching staff, it's not so much Ruff, as it is maybe we lost a lot with Brunette? The rush game doesn't look as good as it did last year when he was here (and it also wasn't as good before he got here the year before) and I thought the 22-23 Devils were a carbon copy of the 21-22 Panthers that he was the head coach of for almost the entirety of that season.

Even the 22-23 Panthers under Maurice didn't look as impressive off the rush or have the rush game they did the year before, despite eventually being able to sneak into the playoffs and then going on a run to the SCF.

 

[None Shall Pass]

My only complaint about Bratt this season is that he's still passing too much, especially when he's in the slot. You've got a sick shot little buddy, use it.

Edit: That's actually a complaint I have for the top 3 lines in general, but at least Jack's line makes it work. You're fifteen feet from the goalie and you're playing catch, just whip it at the fool.

 

[guitarguyvic]

My only complaint about Bratt this season is that he's still passing too much, especially when he's in the slot. You've got a sick shot little buddy, use it.

Edit: That's actually a complaint I have for the top 3 lines in general, but at least Jack's line makes it work. You're fifteen feet from the goalie and you're playing catch, just whip it at the fool.

IDK, hard to complain about things like this when they are average like 4 goals a game. How much more are we expecting them to score?

The bigger issues lie outside of offensive play.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

We could be 0-6 if it wasn’t for Jack Hughes seems just like complaining to complain. Learn to find enjoyment, you’re witnessing possibly the best season a Devil has ever had. Obviously we have a number of guys that are better than they’ve played so far.

 

[Brodeur]

I never knew that about Jack.

I had an annoying exchange about Luke and Quinn that still bothers me on the prospects board.

There’s a 10 month and 26 day difference between Quinn’s and Luke’s birthdays. One of the oldest and youngest players in each of those drafts. It makes sense to compare their 1st year in the NCAA rather than make a D+1 comparison.

The poster argued that age doesn’t matter with blue chip prospects and Luke could have went to college a year early like Zach Werenski. I mean, yes, he could have but who cares lol.

My point isn’t that Luke needed to get a year in at Michigan before the draft for other people’s benefit. He was a bit of a late bloomer because of his growth spurt, I don’t see skipping a year of the NTDP/USHL benefiting him.

And development time is more development time no matter the player.

I realize this might be mind-numbing uninteresting but that argument still bugs me. (And I’m right grr lol.)

I forget how long ago it was, but I did enjoy one main board poster who said Jack should have challenged himself and played in Europe like Auston Matthews did during his draft year. Poster was certain that showed that Jack didn't have the desire to improve.

I happily pointed out that Matthews could only play in Europe because he turned 18 in mid-September. Matthews had to sit out his Swiss team's first two games until he turned 18 due their visa rules.

Jack turned 18 in May 2019.......after most European leagues had already concluded their seasons.

 

[Saugus]

We could be 0-6 if it wasn’t for Jack Hughes seems just like complaining to complain. Learn to find enjoyment, you’re witnessing possibly the best season a Devil has ever had. Obviously we have a number of guys that are better than they’ve played so far.

Ya Hughes clearly isn't the problem here. Dude isn't going to score 3 points a game for the whole season, but he's going to produce.

It's the rest of the top 9 (besides Bratt and Toffoli) that needs to get in gear. Nico scoring a couple goals is a good start, and I wish Meier would score more, but he is doing reasonably well given that he's on a line with Hughes and there's only one puck.

Mercer in particular, but also Haula, Holtz, and Palat need to step up. And our defense and goaltending has been beyond abysmal.

 

[Guttersniped]

The Canes are going through the same thing. We have complicated systems on both teams and we have a lot of new faces. It will take time.

I'm a little surprised by Marino, Siegenthaler's slow starts. Bahl has been fine other than very weak wrist shots that more often than not get blocked and led to Caps 2-on-1s. He's been physical, has made some good plays. Hamilton's fine. Hughes is fantastic - he makes occasional mistakes but we expected that from a young rookie. Smith is slow, gets out of position.

Graves and Severson are being remembered for their gaffes but they tended to be outlier plays on top of mostly solid games (especially Severson). We're forgetting that.

The passing isn't crisp - I suspect that's a lot to do with trying to re-jel the team with new faces and lines. The positioning - same.

The slow starts we had last year, but we need to improve that as a team. They have to be ready to go 120% early in the games and at start of periods.

Goaltending is a problem. We have average goaltending. When they get a lot of high danger chances more of those are going to go in.

I like Holtz's play overall. He's hustled, taken pucks away, made passes. He's done the things but isn't playing with anyone who is lighting it up right now. Sometimes he's been the best on his line. That said, I wish we took Askarov #7 overall instead, because we need goaltending more than we need Holtz.

Individual defensemen, unless we’re talking dynamic higher end guys who are carrying their pair, don’t matter as much as an effective pairing.

Early on the the Hamilton/Siegenthaler pair was on fire even though Sieg struggled a bit later in the year.

One of the best things about Severson is he’s pairs well with almost everyone.

The Marino/Graves pairing was very effective, particularly later in the season. It was a crucial element for us because it was our shutdown pair. Not having a reliable pair like that at the moment makes life way more difficult.

On the other hand, Smith and Bahl weren’t very good together last year, Bahl improved when he didn’t play with Smith.

Last season Marino played well with everyone but Siegenthaler. They didn’t play together much 5v5 (53 minutes) but that one pairing was significantly worse than any other he was on.

Hamilton played well with everyone but he gets a ton of offensive deployment.

This year I’m not sure what the pairings should be, it’s a bit of a riddle right now. Hughes/Smith pair probably should be broken up.

The Hamilton/Hughes pairing numbers are based on very little time together but it’s almost ridiculously dynamic. Not sure I like the remaining potential pairs though.

 

[NJDevs26]

Of course Hughes isn't the problem, but being continually reliant on him will become one if some other people don't start shaping up.

 

[Devs3cups]

Dougie and Bratt have produced, Toffoli, Timo and Nico are starting to find their game these last 2-3 games, so I’m not sure where the “it’s only Jack” narrative is coming from.

Jack is producing at an absurd 3 PPG clip, so it’s easy to think he’s the only one, but he’s not. He’s the only one (in the league) to do it to that extent, but it doesn’t mean others aren’t producing or starting to produce and find their groove.

You’d like more from Mercer, Palat, Haula and maybe a few points from the 4th line, but I’m not worried about them clicking eventually.

 

[Patrik26]

My only complaint about Bratt this season is that he's still passing too much, especially when he's in the slot. You've got a sick shot little buddy, use it.

Edit: That's actually a complaint I have for the top 3 lines in general, but at least Jack's line makes it work. You're fifteen feet from the goalie and you're playing catch, just whip it at the fool.

Nothing wrong with put back goals too if the initial shot doesn't go in. I actually enjoy the dirty area goals myself. Like Nico's last night.

 

[Triumph]

Of course Hughes isn't the problem, but being continually reliant on him will become one if some other people don't start shaping up.

But they will. We've seen them do it. We've seen Bratt and Nico and Mercer and Meier play much better than they are playing right now.

 

[RNCDevil]

Anyone else still stewing about that Caps game?

On the brightside, the issues seem obvious to Coach Ruff and the players. The question is what are they going to do about it against a potent Sabres offense?

 

[devilsblood]

Nothing wrong with put back goals too if the initial shot doesn't go in. I actually enjoy the dirty area goals myself. Like Nico's last night.

Won't be amongst the top highlight reel goals for the season.

But I don't think you'll find a better power forward type goal. Really was high level.

 

[Emperoreddy]

 

[Devs3cups]

 

[glenwo2]

When the Media continues to act like Jesper Bratt doesn't exist....

 

[Devs3cups]

When the Media continues to act like Jesper Bratt doesn't exist....

He’s our own little secret, it’s ok!

 

[Guadana]

When the Media continues to act like Jesper Bratt doesn't exist....

Jesper B-B...Who? Did we traded him to Boston or something like that?

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

And this is where you have to factor in a kids mindset. Jack has so much swagger that he could fight through that tough season.

I actually think it could have been a negative if he went and lived the hot shot life dominating college.

If I remember correctly there was talk of the OHL if he did not stay with NJ.

Playing either junior or college hockey - and once again competing in the World Juniors would have been the better course for his development.

 

[TrufleShufle]

If I remember correctly there was talk of the OHL if he did not stay with NJ.

Playing either junior or college hockey - and once again competing in the World Juniors would have been the better course for his development.

That isn't something I would feel comfortable even guessing given where he stands right now, let alone make a definitive statement about it.....

 

[vtdevils2k]

That isn't something I would feel comfortable even guessing given where he stands right now, let alone make a definitive statement about it.....

We've been through this countless times...Jack said it was better for his development that he struggled that first year in the NHL....humbled him and he "hated it"

 

[TrufleShufle]

We've been through this countless times...Jack said it was better for his development that he struggled that first year in the NHL....humbled him and he "hated it"

I agree and have said the same thing countless times, just him saying a definitive statement over something like that is weird. It's like if he went back to college or OHL he would have had 120 points last year and 25 so far this year.

Whatever happened worked.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think it's pretty clear the Mercer - Haula - Holtz line just isn't working. We might have to get creative with our lines to solve some of our issues up front.

Here are some of my thoughts. There are 4 broad the tenants I think we should try to stick to:

1) Put Jack and Bratt back together.

Look at their numbers together at 5v5 since 2021-22 (source):​

• Jack with Bratt: 3.92 xGF/60, 62.6% xG% (870 mins)
• Jack w/o Bratt: 2.75 xGF/60, 52.1% xG% (1,177 mins)
• Bratt w/o Jack: 3.18 xGF/60, 54.4% xG% (1,351 mins)

3.87 xGF/60 would be 1st in the league for a single forward over that span. Auston Matthews was at 3.55 xGF/60, McDavid was at 3.48 xGF/60.​

​

You can also see how much Jack's xGF/60 falls off without Bratt (43% drop from 3.92 -> 2.75). And Jack elevates Bratt as well.​

​

Meanwhile, Bratt and Hischier don't have nearly the same magic, as Bratt's presence doesn't impact Nico's xGF nearly as much (xGF/60 only drops 19% from 3.42 -> 2.86). And Bratt's numbers are actually better without Nico (source):​

• Nico with Bratt: 3.42 xGF/60, 58.0% xG% (854 mins)
• Nico w/o Bratt: 2.86 xGF/60, 55.9% xG% (1,240 mins)
• Bratt w/o Nico: 3.51 xGF/60, 57.6% xG% (1,367 mins)

​

2) Surround Nico with heavy, defensively responsible wingers.

Instead of Bratt, give Nico Toffoli.​

​

I know Toffoli has looked great with Jack, and I like that option, but there's already been a handful of times where he was a step to slow to keep up with Jack. All things being equal, if it's one of Bratt or Toffoli with Jack, I'd take Bratt every time. I think moving TT to play with Nico gives us more balance. And TT + Jack is something we can always go back to.​

​

Palat - Hischier - Toffoli feels like a really well balanced line that can match up against other team's top lines. We don't need a ton of offense from this line, but if they defend as well as they should, I would expect a fair amount of scoring. All 3 of those guys are very opportunistic scorers.​

3) Put Meier on his "own line" with guys that thrive on the forecheck.

Meier is best served on his own line IMO. He's the type of guy who excels when given the chance to create his own shot, and he's at his best when he's the go to option on his line while still being able to crash and bang on the forecheck. I think letting him play bash brothers with Bastian & McLeod will give him the chance to be his line's go-to offensive player. Bastian - McLeod - Meier could be a really tough line to matchup against.​

4. Give Jack & Bratt a heady winger who can help on draws, be first on the forecheck, and get to the net.

Mercer fits the bill here IMO. He can better match the speed of Jack and Jesper, is great on the forecheck, goes to the net hard, and is smart enough to hang with those two. Plus he should be able to win ~45% of his faceoffs, a nice improvement over Jack at the moment.​

Based on those core concepts, here is what I came up with:

Mercer - Hughes - Bratt
Palat - Hischier - Toffoli
Bastian - McLeod - Meier
Nosek - Haula - Lazar/Holtz

I don't think Holtz has done enough to warrant playing time, honestly. He can make some nice passes from time to time, but he's so weak on the forecheck and a defensive liability. I'd rather have a 4th line with veterans who can be relied on defensively and forecheck consistently.

Defensively, we're a mess. Siegenthaler - Hamilton has been bleeding chances, and Hughes - Smith has been awful as well. I'd like to see us experiment more with a Luke - Hamilton pairing on a more permanent basis. There numbers together have been pretty great, though obviously it's a small sample and they are usually only put together when we are pressing for a goal. But I do like the idea of Hughes' skating being able to cover for a lot of the over aggressive pinches Dougie makes.

I think this could be interesting:

Hughes - Hamilton
Bahl - Marino
Siegs - Smith (eventually Nemec)

Siegs - Marino really hasn't worked as a pair in the past, so I think we keep Bahl with Marino for now, as that seems to be working okay.