Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season begins!

[Devils731]

I guarantee the analytics department doesn’t have enough sway to be telling the coaches what system to run. That’s nuts to even think. They’re basically another version of a scouting department. Do you think the scouting department tells coaches what system to run? I promise you neither does.

I didn’t say they choose the system.

I said they have sway when picking coaches come. Ruff got hired partially because of his unique concept to isolate Nico and Hughes from playing down low defense.

So I don’t think they tell coaches what to run. I think they have influence on which coaches get picked, which determines what system is run.

So you may still disagree but you should read and understand what you’re arguing against first.

 

[Devils731]

It’s the opposite. Devils are like bottom 3 in the NHl at allowing odd man rushes.

Problem is they still somehow are top 5 in odd man rushes leading to goals, so in our heads we think they are terrible T them.

One of the analytic guys on twitter did a whole thread on it. Basically we can’t buy a big save i if our lives depended on it.

Not directed at you, but for the people who don’t think it’s goaltending. I do think the defenders are playing scared knowing every single mistake leads to a puck in the back of their net. Every analytic has us as good defensively, but every single error leads to a goal against us

It was the Devils allowed one of the lowest total of odd man rushes. This was not defined so we don’t actually know what odd man rushes meant in this case. It was from a national source. All we know is it measured the rush at the offensive blue line in some way.

Sal showed numbers that the Devils give up one of the highest xG off the odd man rush.

So put together you could say the Devils give up few generic odd man rushes but relatively a lot of dangerous ones.

—————

I don’t think the analytics measure what the Devils are worst at, giving up open looks with time and space off of diagonal and cross ice passes. So, for me, if the analytics isn’t measuring for that then I don’t know that the analytics reflects the Devils in line with reality.

 

[MadDevil]

Who are the three worst?! Carolina, Edmonton, ???

And I’d still like to see the explanation for the same two goalies play going down dramatically. If it were just Vitek you could attribute it to the playoffs but Schmid too?!

To be fair, Schmid has such a small sample size in the NHL that we don't really know what his baseline is. I certainly think it's better than this season overall, but we don't know if his baseline is a .920 guy or a .910 or a .900 (which is getting closer to league average the last few years).

The defense does neither guy any favors but they also haven't been good. Both things can be true. What does Carolina's metrics look like? Did they suddenly forget how to play defense as well?

 

[devilsblood]

It’s the opposite. Devils are like bottom 3 in the NHl at allowing odd man rushes.

Problem is they still somehow are top 5 in odd man rushes leading to goals, so in our heads we think they are terrible T them.

One of the analytic guys on twitter did a whole thread on it. Basically we can’t buy a big save i if our lives depended on it.

Not directed at you, but for the people who don’t think it’s goaltending. I do think the defenders are playing scared knowing every single mistake leads to a puck in the back of their net. Every analytic has us as good defensively, but every single error leads to a goal against us

I remember someone posting this soon after Sal posted his. Now I admit, I didn't fully take in Sal's stats,

But I do question, much like I question "scoring chances", what these stat counters count as odd men rushes? And I'd like to see a breakdown of actual breakaways, vs 2 on1's, vs 3 on 2's. If we allow a bunch of 2-1's and breakaways, but very few 3-2's, well then "odd man russhes" against can be misleading.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

The odd man rush problem is not nearly as bad as it was early in the season. Lately we’re getting destroyed by unacceptable turnovers (Jack, Luke, Bahl all guilty in the last couple). I also don’t really know what Brendan Smith is trying to accomplish out there with his pinches. He adds nothing offensively and can’t recover.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I didn’t say they choose the system.

I said they have sway when picking coaches come. Ruff got hired partially because of his unique concept to isolate Nico and Hughes from playing down low defense.

So I don’t think they tell coaches what to run. I think they have influence on which coaches get picked, which determines what system is run.

So you may still disagree but you should read and understand what you’re arguing against first.

Why in the world do you think our centers don’t have have to play defense down low? That’s just flat out not true. If anything they come too low sometimes and we end up caught with 2 or 3 guys below the goal line.

Regardless of how you’re wording it what’re you’re saying is a huge stretch. They have influence. Like the scouting department. But they don’t even come close to making the decisions and this Is nothing more than you not liking analytics all that much and trying to suggest they might be to blame for our issues. Analytics are just a useful tool that help paint a picture and possibly tell you some things you don’t know.

 

[Bleedred]

Who are the three worst?! Carolina, Edmonton, ???

And I’d still like to see the explanation for the same two goalies play going down dramatically. If it were just Vitek you could attribute it to the playoffs but Schmid too?!

Schmid just looks whatever, but Vitek looks absolutely cooked mentally, as I keep saying.

Everyone is playing in front of him the way a nervous, new driver would drive with a nagging asshole in the back or passenger seat. I’m using that example from my own experience. I had someone pretty tough on me when I started driving. I was afraid I was going to hit the parked cop car or run over the pedestrians at any moment.

Yet when I wasn’t driving with this person, I relaxed a whole lot and got a ton better. And never hit a pedestrian or a parked car. It was a complete difference.

And that’s how I think the team plays in front of Vitek particularly. Like they’re just waiting for the next accident.

No one trusts him anymore and he doesn’t trust anybody.

And he’s played poorly in what’s now a significant sample of games, whereas Schmid hasn’t played poorly in a significant number of games.

And he looked fine in the playoffs last year, whereas Vitek did not. He had a rough game or two, but Vitek didn’t even have a good game or two in the playoffs. Not one good game.

It’s hard to come back from what happened to Vitek in the playoffs, especially with what happened when he was not in the net. I mean, it’s hard to come back from that with the same team.

And speaking of Vitek and playoffs, I think game 4 of the Carolina series was the first of now three different times where he just bleeds about 3 goals in a 4-5 minute stretch or 3 goals on 4-5 shots in quick succession. It happened in that game 4 and took us out of the game in the 2nd period, and it happened in that Islanders game in the 2nd period where we came back and last night was a new low with three goals in 69 seconds.

 

[Billdo]

LOL the team is not "quite good" in front of these goalies and there is no way you can pin just 10% of the blame on the skaters. I'm sorry but that's absurd. Just look at what's going on on the goals last night...bordering on certifiably insane to say the skaters have been good. If you told me it was like 60/40 or 50/50 blame then OK I might at least consider it.

Like I've said before, I actually wouldn't mind Fitz grabbing someone that people think will be average just for the sake of seeing how far we can take this argument if the new guy also stinks.

Going off the stats they are fine, I don't necessarily agree with it but the numbers are the numbers, that's all I'm saying.

 

[Devils731]

Why in the world do you think our centers don’t have have to play defense down low? That’s just flat out not true. If anything they come too low sometimes and we end up caught with 2 or 3 guys below the goal line.

Regardless of how you’re wording it what’re you’re saying is a huge stretch. They have influence. Like the scouting department. But they don’t even come close to making the decisions and this Is nothing more than you not liking analytics all that much and trying to suggest they might be to blame for our issues. Analytics are just a useful tool that help paint a picture and possibly tell you some things you don’t know.

Ruff literally said when he came on the defensive system was to alleviate the defensive ask of the centers. So they wouldn’t be in the board battles behind the net. The 2 defenseman are the first to the battle now instead of an defenseman and center being first.

I love analytics. I’ve been touting and explaining them for years and I complimented the people in the Devils department above. You’re completely off base.

 

[devilsblood]

The odd man rush problem is not nearly as bad as it was early in the season. Lately we’re getting destroyed by unacceptable turnovers (Jack, Luke, Bahl all guilty in the last couple). I also don’t really know what Brendan Smith is trying to accomplish out there with his pinches. He adds nothing offensively and can’t recover.

Ya, and it's maybe the "rush" portion of the concept which has changed, but it still seems to be goalie and a d-man vs multiple opposition players.

Oversimplification and yeah "make a save" and yes Vitek looked lousy on 2 of the goals, but what goal last night wasn't a glorious chance against?

 

[NJDevs26]

Yeah I was actually expecting Vitek to be worse when I saw the score and the timing of the goals, and goals #4 and #5 were bad but even given that...you're also talking about four goals CLEARLY on the D and other people including Siegs running over Vitek for no good reason on goal #3. If I didn't seemingly know better I'd swear he knocked him woozy cause Vitek did look bad after that, and after stopping everything since coming in relief.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Ya, and it's maybe the "rush" portion of the concept which has changed, but it still seems to be goalie and a d-man vs multiple opposition players.

Oversimplification and yeah "make a save" and yes Vitek looked lousy on 2 of the goals, but what goal last night wasn't a glorious chance against?

Last game was just dogshit. But I’m sure if we were to go through the whole season, the number of “yeah, that just has to be saved” goals would be well into double figures. @Bleedred may have already done this, I know that’s his specialty.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

The odd man rush problem is not nearly as bad as it was early in the season. Lately we’re getting destroyed by unacceptable turnovers (Jack, Luke, Bahl all guilty in the last couple). I also don’t really know what Brendan Smith is trying to accomplish out there with his pinches. He adds nothing offensively and can’t recover.

Yep but I worry if this team can be prolific offensively without being that loose with the odd mans. I lean no but we'll have to wait and see I guess

 

[Killing Joke]

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Yep but I worry if this team can be prolific offensively without being that loose with the odd mans. I lean no but we'll have to wait and see I guess

Honestly lately outside of a couple real stinkers from the defense, the offense has been more of a problem for me. Jack is very ineffective right now and is having the same puck control issues he had coming back from injury in the past.

Also the PP has gone cold and we mostly just don’t even get PPs for some reason.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Honestly lately outside of a couple real stinkers from the defense, the offense has been more of a problem for me. Jack is very ineffective right now and is having the same puck control issues he had coming back from injury in the past.

Also the PP has gone cold and we mostly just don’t even get PPs for some reason.

100% agree, it looks worse too because the superstar, well, isn't superstaring but it gives up 17-18 Hall vibes a bit but he's also looked like absolute ass water the last few games. The fact they're this close to the bubble with everything going wrong makes me feel optimistic but at the same time, something has to give with them

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

I think Ruff's system would work well (or maybe even be successful) if we just adjusted in game when it is being trumped. The same way some defensive coordinators run heavy man or zone on most snaps, but then struggle to realize they need to adjust when the offense does.

What im most nervous about is none of the assistants see it either.. but hopefully thats just me being a bit of a pessimist to end the year lol

 

[glenwo2]

Then it's a good thing we don't have LA's schedule since we seem more often than not play down to the competition (and even manage to suck more than them).

 

[NJDevs26]

Yep but I worry if this team can be prolific offensively without being that loose with the odd mans. I lean no but we'll have to wait and see I guess

It's not like they've been that prolific offensively 5-on-5 this year even with the firewagon system, and they're missing one big cog in what they did offensively last year.

 

[NJDevs26]

100% agree, it looks worse too because the superstar, well, isn't superstaring but it gives up 17-18 Hall vibes a bit but he's also looked like absolute ass water the last few games. The fact they're this close to the bubble with everything going wrong makes me feel optimistic but at the same time, something has to give with them

That's actually a good comparison tbh...Hughes not scoring is one thing, but he's been acting distracted for a while. Boston was a terrible game for him all over the ice till the goal in OT. Anaheim he got petulant for no good reason and took as many penalties as he did all of last year, leading to the team losing their collective heads. Philly he was a -2 in black type, he alone caused those two goals against. I don't know what he did last night but it clearly wasn't much.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Schmid played 18 games last year, starting in 14, in the regular season. He had a nice run in the playoffs but that was 9 games with 8 starts.

That doesn’t tell you a ton about what we could expect the next season, he’s still developing. He should be in Utica since he’s struggling and that’s normal for a goalie at his age with his history.

And with Vanecek, bad seasons after a solid or even very good one happen with goalies.

I’m sure Toronto thought Samsonov would be better.
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The same with the Avs and Georgiev.
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Even Dallas and Oettinger.
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We most definitely got other issues but goalies aren’t pieces of equipment that have no individual effect on the game.

And no one is voicing an optimistic plan for an instant goalie replacement? We know no one is available and there’s a number of teams that would be interested if someone decent was actually available.

If a team’s goalie stats only reflected their team’s defense then the Hurricanes have the worst team defense in the NHL. I don’t believe that’s true though.

As to Schmid would benefit from some regular play in Utica, the second goal last night is a good example. He tries to direct a shot well off to his left because there’s an Edmonton forward standing there close in. But instead of getting it to the corner, and he could have placed it further off, he lets it drop right at the feet of the scorer. That’s the kind of rebound placement issue you’d like to see him work on in the AHL. Let him play day in and out down there for a while. But we don’t have that luxury.

 

[Bleedred]

Last game was just dogshit. But I’m sure if we were to go through the whole season, the number of “yeah, that just has to be saved” goals would be well into double figures. @Bleedred may have already done this, I know that’s his specialty.

I’ve counted 34 between the two of them.

And that’s not even including goals like goal six last night where I didn’t nail Vitek, because he technically didn’t turn it over, but deserves some blame for putting Luke in a bad position and just totally being lost and losing his net afterwards.

 

[Bleedred]

Then it's a good thing we don't have LA's schedule since we seem more often than not play down to the competition (and even manage to suck more than them).

At least that’s fewer cream of the crap, loser, suck, chump teams left to no-show against and lose to.

 

[devilsblood]

It was the Devils allowed one of the lowest total of odd man rushes. This was not defined so we don’t actually know what odd man rushes meant in this case. It was from a national source. All we know is it measured the rush at the offensive blue line in some way.

Sal showed numbers that the Devils give up one of the highest xG off the odd man rush.

So put together you could say the Devils give up few generic odd man rushes but relatively a lot of dangerous ones.

—————

I don’t think the analytics measure what the Devils are worst at, giving up open looks with time and space off of diagonal and cross ice passes. So, for me, if the analytics isn’t measuring for that then I don’t know that the analytics reflects the Devils in line with reality.

There also the consideration of defending the odd man rush. How often is there an odd man rush that is broken up, vs how often the rush leads to a good scoring oppurtunity.

Doesn't seem the nat'l stat would consider how it is defended, while Sal's, on it's face, does seem to factor that in.

 

[Killing Joke]

Then it's a good thing we don't have LA's schedule since we seem more often than not play down to the competition (and even manage to suck more than them).

lol idk we got walloped by a team that was just as good as us last night.

But this is why I was saying earlier not being in a playoff spot around thanksgiving was a problem. It's hard to move up spots, especially with us having the hardest schedule which includes the most back to backs, which we suck at this year.

Tom deserves a lot of heat for not addressing goaltending and taking so long at this point to do anything to right the sinking ship that is almost completely submerged in water.