Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2022-23 season thread part III

[Triumph]

It's really not nonsense at all...

When you play against strong opponents, there is a much higher likelihood of losing the game as compared to when you play weaker opponents.

It absolutely matters.

It's nonsense this early in the season because the Devils don't play themselves and almost everyone has lost to them. That said, sure, I acknowledge that the Devils schedule has been a bit weak to start the season, but it's maybe on the order of 1-2 points versus an average schedule. It is not a big deal at all.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Strength of schedule doesn't really mean anything when we're still this early in the season and parity is this high. 10th overall in the league is separated from 20th overall by a total of 5 points. Edmonton, for example, is as equally far from Vegas as they are from Philly.

So what's the difference between playing the #11 overall team (NYI, 35 pts) and the #18 overall team (DET, 32 pts) right now? How does beating one make you good and beating the other make you only meh?

(Yes, I know the SoS is calculated differently that just looking at points, I'm just making a point)

It does mean something.

We've played Boston, Carolina, Vegas, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Colorado, NYR, NYI, and Toronto only a combined 8 times this year. Those are strong teams that are going to be hard to beat. (Hence why we are 4-3-1 against those teams) All of these teams will be in the playoffs.

We've played Anaheim, Chicago, Columbus, Arizona, San Jose, Philly, Buffalo, Ottawa, Vancouver, Calgary, Montreal, and Detroit a combined 16 times this year. We are 14-2 in those games. Every single one of these teams is going to miss the playoffs except for maybe Calgary.

I don't know how much clearer it can be that strength of schedule actually matters.

When you play against playoff caliber opponents, you will very likely win less games as compared to when you play against non playoff caliber opponents. It's that simple.

It's nonsense this early in the season because the Devils don't play themselves and almost everyone has lost to them. That said, sure, I acknowledge that the Devils schedule has been a bit weak to start the season, but it's maybe on the order of 1-2 points versus an average schedule. It is not a big deal at all.

See above ^

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

It's really not nonsense at all...

When you play against strong opponents, there is a much higher likelihood of losing the game as compared to when you play weaker opponents.

It absolutely matters.

Look at some of the lines for tonight’s games. The biggest favorite is -350 TB over CBJ. For comparison, the Chiefs are -1000 favorites this week. Hockey is much more of a crapshoot, even in massively lopsided matchups. Strength of schedule matters, but not as much as you think it does. Our record is impressive regardless of who we’ve played.

 

[Rhodes 81]

Strength of schedule only matters if you're expecting the Devils to remain head and shoulders atop their division for the entire season. Assuming you recognize that isn't realistic, it is irrelevant. Good teams have great records against bad teams and less great records against other good teams regardless of when they play them during the season. The fact that we played a bunch of bad teams is why our record is gaudy, but it doesn't mean we aren't a good team.

 

[Triumph]

It does mean something.

We've played Boston, Carolina, Vegas, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Colorado, NYR, NYI, and Toronto only a combined 8 times this year. Those are strong teams that are going to be hard to beat. (Hence why we are 4-3-1 against those teams) All of these teams will be in the playoffs.

We've played Anaheim, Chicago, Columbus, Arizona, San Jose, Philly, Buffalo, Ottawa, Vancouver, Calgary, Montreal, and Detroit a combined 16 times this year. We are 14-2 in those games. Every single one of these teams is going to miss the playoffs except for maybe Calgary.

I don't know how much clearer it can be that strength of schedule actually matters.

When you play against playoff caliber opponents, you will very likely win less games as compared to when you play against non playoff caliber opponents. It's that simple.

You did a very bad job here because you put more teams on your second list. I'd feel a little reluctant saying that NYI and NYR will make the playoffs when both teams are narrowly in right now but hey, that's strength of schedule for you - you throw some darts and draw a dartboard around it.

 

[JimEIV]

Strength of schedule?

Does anyone really believe that there are easy games for a team coming off a 27 win and 63 point season and drafting #2 overall?

The fact that the Devils are actually winning games is what we've all been waiting for years now...at least that's what I have been waiting for...beating any opponent with frequency is something we haven't been able to accomplish in a very long time.

If this team continues to beat up on the bottom half of the league that is a huge success and the type of improvement we've needed.

Personally I think it's insane to parse our opponents strength coming from the doormat the status that we've occupied for so long. We've been a bottom 5/6 team for the last 4 years and generally a pushover for a decade.... the fact that there is a segment of the league that we now can actually dominate and win games with frequency is the kind of improvement that makes me extremely happy.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Look at some of the lines for tonight’s games. The biggest favorite is -350 TB over CBJ. For comparison, the Chiefs are -1000 favorites this week. Hockey is much more of a crapshoot, even in massively lopsided matchups. Strength of schedule matters, but not as much as you think it does. Our record is impressive regardless of who we’ve played.

I'm not comparing hockey to football or basketball or baseball lol. I'm comparing hockey to hockey. You have a higher likelihood of winning the hockey game if you're playing against the Chicago Blackhawks or the Arizona Coyotes as opposed to playing against the Boston Bruins or Carolina Hurricanes.

Its just a fact I do not understand how anyone can disagree with this lol.

Strength of schedule only matters if you're expecting the Devils to remain head and shoulders atop their division for the entire season. Assuming you recognize that isn't realistic, it is irrelevant. Good teams have great records against bad teams and less great records against other good teams regardless of when they play them during the season. The fact that we played a bunch of bad teams is why our record is gaudy, but it doesn't mean we aren't a good team.

Agreed. I'm excited for the rest of the season to see how we play against tougher opponents. I'm not oblivious to the fact that if we had played these strong teams earlier in the season, our record likely wouldn't be 21-6-2. But yes, as you said, that doesn't mean we aren't a good team. We are a good team. We are a playoff team.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

You did a very bad job here because you put more teams on your second list. I'd feel a little reluctant saying that NYI and NYR will make the playoffs when both teams are narrowly in right now but hey, that's strength of schedule for you - you throw some darts and draw a dartboard around it.

NYR and NYI are ahead in the standings of every single team listed as a weak opponent. I don't understand why this concept is so hard to grasp lol.

 

[guitarguyvic]

It's really not nonsense at all...

When you play against strong opponents, there is a much higher likelihood of losing the game as compared to when you play weaker opponents.

It absolutely matters.

How are they determining the quality of the competition this early in the season? There are a number of teams that were thought to be strong to start the year that are not even in the playoff picture, and the reverse with several teams being better this year than anticipated.

I don’t think the devils schedule up until this month has been particularly challenging, but they’ve played plenty of teams that are not scrubs.

Even if you put stock into SoS…ok so what? Most teams in the NHL are not going to win 22 of 24 games even if every single one of those games was against the last place team.

At best you could maybe make the argument that they would have had a few more losses in that stretch if they played the handful of legit Stanley cup contenders a few more times. But again so what? Doesn’t mean they aren’t a really good team.

Using SoS to downplay their record is not a very compelling argument.

 

[JimEIV]

I'll happily take another 25 wins against "weak opponents"

 

[glenwo2]

So who's doing the GDT tonight?

Should we put out the @JK3 signal?

 

[guitarguyvic]

I'm not comparing hockey to football or basketball or baseball lol. I'm comparing hockey to hockey. You have a higher likelihood of winning the hockey game if you're playing against the Chicago Blackhawks or the Arizona Coyotes as opposed to playing against the Boston Bruins or Carolina Hurricanes

This is true for literally every team in the league, so not sure what point you're trying to make.

Agreed. I'm excited for the rest of the season to see how we play against tougher opponents. I'm not oblivious to the fact that if we had played these strong teams earlier in the season, our record likely wouldn't be 21-6-2. But yes, as you said, that doesn't mean we aren't a good team. We are a good team. We are a playoff team.

So what exactly was your point in bringing up SoS? That our record likely wouldn't be quite as good? OK no offense but that's stating the obvious. Again, this is not a compelling argument against how good the team is or how impressive their streak was. 90% of NHL teams would not win as many games as the Devils did, even against the worst teams in the league.

 

[AfroThunder396]

It does mean something.

We've played Boston, Carolina, Vegas, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Colorado, NYR, NYI, and Toronto only a combined 8 times this year. Those are strong teams that are going to be hard to beat. (Hence why we are 4-3-1 against those teams) All of these teams will be in the playoffs.

We've played Anaheim, Chicago, Columbus, Arizona, San Jose, Philly, Buffalo, Ottawa, Vancouver, Calgary, Montreal, and Detroit a combined 16 times this year. We are 14-2 in those games. Every single one of these teams is going to miss the playoffs except for maybe Calgary.

I don't know how much clearer it can be that strength of schedule actually matters.

When you play against playoff caliber opponents, you will very likely win less games as compared to when you play against non playoff caliber opponents. It's that simple.


See above ^

All 5 of Boston's losses are against teams currently not in a playoff position. You still have to earn a win in all of those games.

Boston has lost games against, Ottawa, Arizona, Washington, and Florida (x2), none of which are in a playoff spot
Carolina has lost games against Florida, Colorado (x2), Calgary, and Anaheim, none of which are in a playoff spot
Toronto has lost games against Montreal, Arizona, Anaheim, and San Jose, none of which are in a playoff spot

So, acting like weak opponent = free win is certainly not at all accurate.

And yes, even though it sounds like a meme, the New Jersey Devils SoS is going to be negatively impacted by the fact that they don't have any games against the New Jersey Devils, currently a top-3 team in the league in both expected outcomes and actual outcomes.

 

[njdevil26]

I am extremely high on cold brew coffee and just bought tickets for tonight... and am listening to a metal playlist I made for game days. The game is in like 8 and a half hours. If they lose to Philly I'm going to be angry.

 

[MachoDiablo]

Was at the Dallas game and can safely say I haven't felt that frustrated watching a game for awhile; they were so clearly getting the better of play and possession, but it took my brain until nearly the start of the second period to go "oh my God, we're getting stonewalled by Scott freaking Wedgewood."

No hate towards Wedge, glad to see him thriving, but man, I did not see that coming.

Still, Devils were the better team on the ice in both of the last two games; they're just not netting as many chances, which may be due to not being able to roll out four strong lines as consistently as they did before a few of the injuries, and I'm also wondering if they're letting the whole "giving up goals early/late in periods" thing get into their heads. Vitek is also looking more human of late, which we had to know was likely to happen at some point (Schmid still looking very strong, albeit in limited games).

That said, it's far better than looking like garbage in those games; keep being the better team, tweak what needs tweaking, and the results will follow. I just demand they follow tonight, since I paid good money for a lower bowl ticket with some friends and don't want my buzz harshed.

 

[glenwo2]

Please win tonight.

that's all I ask.

Win and I'll be happy to point to all the Advanced Analytics and go Yippy-hooray as well.

 

[njdevil26]

Please win tonight.

that's all I ask.

Win and I'll be happy to point to all the Advanced Analytics and go Yippy-hooray as well.

46-2 good for you? We can spot the Flyers two garbage time goals it's fine.

 

[Devils090]

Win the next 3, hopefully get a point if we lose a game.

Lulls in a season happen, Dallas game there was absolutely zero energy in the building and the team clearly felt the effects of the back to back. Division game tonight, need to come out and get a few early ones to set a tone. Flyers are garbage but have played us tough so far so don’t even let them get a foot in this game.

 

[glenwo2]

 

[glenwo2]

Okay so here apparently is the lineup tonight against Philly.

Bratt is with Jack.

Sharangovich is there, too.




Interesting that Holtz is in the lineup as well.

I wonder how much rope Lindy is giving him.

 

[Devils090]

Guess we’ll see Bahl in another month

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Boqvist and Holtz probably combine to play 10 minutes tonight

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

not sure what more Bahl would need to do to keep playing...I thought he has been quite good

and lol at putting Holtz with those 2 bums. That will SURELY get him going!

 

[Rhodes 81]

I f***ing love those forward lines if they'll actually play all 4. I hate that Bahl is sitting again, though. I thought last game was his best in the NHL.

 

[glenwo2]

Again I wonder how much rope Lindy is giving Holtz here....