Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2022-23 season thread part III

[MauDevils]

So our average opponent has a .527 P%. Which means so far we're playing, on average, the 21st ranked team.

I was curious what that looks like in relation to other teams so I found this - SoS Ranking - which has our strength of schedule played literally dead last (easiest) in the entire league.

We now have the 4th most difficult schedule remaining.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I truly do not care about "strength of schedule" in hockey....its nonsense.

 

[NJDevs26]

It is in December...it's more instructive as a looking back on it later tool after you definitively know what strength of schedule you had - but projecting strength of schedule for the rest of the year at this point is foolish, especially pre-trade deadline. Just like how the New York Jets' first seven games were supposed to be a gauntlet but then it turned out Aaron Rodgers is close to washed up, Russel Wilson is washed up with a bad coach, the Dolphins played a third-string QB, etc.

Still the next several games look daunting in the immediate future, hence why tomorrow's game is getting perhaps exaggerated importance.

 

[Emperoreddy]

It is in December...it's more instructive as a looking back on it later tool after you definitively know what strength of schedule you had - but projecting strength of schedule for the rest of the year at this point is foolish, especially pre-trade deadline. Just like how the New York Jets' first seven games were supposed to be a gauntlet but then it turned out Aaron Rodgers is close to washed up, Russel Wilson is washed up with a bad coach, the Dolphins played a third-string QB, etc.

Still the next several games look daunting in the immediate future, hence why tomorrow's game is getting perhaps exaggerated importance.

An extra win last week would have greatly changed the mood. If they take care of the next few then there is less pressure on that Boston gauntlet to salvage the month.

 

[glenwo2]

Division leads always dwindle it’s almost like the rest of the division was supposed to lay down at the 20 game mark some of you guys are freaking out over morning. Do you know how large of a league 6 points and even 10 points are .

Do you know how fast those leads disappear if your team goes on a losing streak?

 

[jkrdevil]

He said 20 to 40 games, he'll see where we are.

The thing is, though :



Things could spiral in a hurry.

The lead on 2nd ahead of the Islanders game was 9 points. It was shrunk by 3 points (with Carolina picking up a game in hand). To put it in games behind terms they lost w games off their 4.5 game lead. Half a game which was because they played an extra game than Carolina. They get a couple of wins and they likely gain that ground lost.

Could they be caught in quick order? Yes, they play Carolina twice in the next couple of weeks. The flip side is win both games and they probably put Carolina in the rear view mirror for good.

 

[glenwo2]

The Penguins just lost Zucker and Petry for weeks at minimum.

Probably will be an issue and we never beat the Canes.

What the...?

Don't you usually post in the Main Forum instead of here?

And it doesn't matter 'cause the Pens are winning regardless.

 

[Triumph]

So our average opponent has a .527 P%. Which means so far we're playing, on average, the 21st ranked team.

I was curious what that looks like in relation to other teams so I found this - SoS Ranking - which has our strength of schedule played literally dead last (easiest) in the entire league.

We now have the 4th most difficult schedule remaining.

Part of this is obviously going to be the fact that the Devils have steamrolled their schedule.

 

[jkrdevil]

Do you know how fast those leads disappear if your team goes on a losing streak?

Not really unless you go on a long streak. Because of three point games short winning streaks usually gain teams much ground outside say 2-4 points, and losing streak don‘t necessary mean a lot of ground lost. This is also because a 3-4 game losing streak will likely be cancelled out by a 3-4 winning streak elsewhere on the schedule. It is the long streaks or stacking a few short streaks on top of each other that hurt.

the quickest way teams make ground though is by beating the teams they are chasing. Obviously we have game against Carolina coming up, so the possibility is there.

 

[Bleedred]

Yeah when you’re like the second best team in the league through the first close to 30 games of the season, you basically become the strength of schedule.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

.

So our average opponent has a .527 P%. Which means so far we're playing, on average, the 21st ranked team.

I was curious what that looks like in relation to other teams so I found this - SoS Ranking - which has our strength of schedule played literally dead last (easiest) in the entire league.

We now have the 4th most difficult schedule remaining.

And we played better against the Rangers and Dallas than we have against the Flyers either time. Don’t think this means very much.

Don’t know what the SOS stuff is all about really. Would a truly good team (if what you’re trying to say is we are not actually good) have played better or won more games? Doubt.

 

[jkrdevil]

To add to the point lead discussion. The 2017-18 season the Devils on Dec. 27 sat in first place in the Metro with a 5 point lead on the Islanders who were at the time the first team out. Over the next 20 games they played at a 70 point pace. They never fell out of a playoff position despite this (although we know they did have to go on a run at the end to ensure they stayed in).

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Some of you guys are looking way to far ahead. Thankfully the team and the coaching staff are thinking about tomorrow's game vs the Flyers.

Anyone can beat anyone in this league on any given night. Yes the back to back against Boston will be a real challenge but the 2 games we played vs the Flyers we didn't play rather too well even though we won the 2nd game. I think tomorrow's game will say a decent amount about this team. The Flyers have been bad this year but they are a rival and we can't play down to them despite their record. I would be really concerned if we lost to the Flyers. Atleast the Islanders , Rangers and Stars are sitting in playoff spots so they actually are good competition for us and make the loss a little less concerning.

 

[Devs3cups]

Some of you guys are looking way to far ahead. Thankfully the team and the coaching staff are thinking about tomorrow's game vs the Flyers.

Anyone can beat anyone in this league on any given night. Yes the back to back against Boston will be a real challenge but the 2 games we played vs the Flyers we didn't play rather too well even though we won the 2nd game. I think tomorrow's game will say a decent amount about this team. The Flyers have been bad this year but they are a rival and we can't play down to them despite their record. I would be really concerned if we lost to the Flyers. Atleast the Islanders , Rangers and Stars are sitting in playoff spots so they actually are good competition for us and make the loss a little less concerning.

2 bolded contradicting statements here! I’m just messing around, but I seriously don’t think it would be the end of the world if we lost tomorrow night. Bad teams beat good teams. Good teams end up winning it all after going on bad streaks and losing to bad teams. It’s a long season.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

2 bolded contradicting statements here! I’m just messing around, but I seriously don’t think it would be the end of the world if we lost tomorrow night. Bad teams beat good teams. Good teams end up winning it all after going on bad streaks and losing to bad teams. It’s a long season.

Yeah I should worded that better. We know anyone can beat anyone but it's a little more alarming when you lose to teams lower in the standings.

I actually looked at the current up to date standings and was a little suprised Dallas is 4th in the league right now while the Rangers & Islanders are 11th + 12th respectively.

 

[Camille the Eel]

If Bastian is going to continue to be out for an extended period of time, was bringing Nolan Foote up ever an option? He played adequately here at the end of last season and had a decent camp and is the “kind of player” Bastian is; plays a similar game, seemed to be strong in holding spots down low and to have good hands. Or adequate hands.

Now I haven’t watched him in Utica and have little basis to answer this. But in general where are we with Foote? Former first round choice of Tampa, came over in the Pickles trade 22 years old, relatively tall and heavy - is he a bust or does he have a future in the NHL and, if so, what is the timeline?

 

[Emperoreddy]

They need to beat Philly. A lose makes it 4 in a row with better teams rest of the month.

 

[Emperoreddy]

If Bastian is going to continue to be out for an extended period of time, was bringing Nolan Foote up ever an option? He played adequately here at the end of last season and had a decent camp and is the “kind of player” Bastian is; plays a similar game, seemed to be strong in holding spots down low and to have good hands. Or adequate hands.

Now I haven’t watched him in Utica and have little basis to answer this. But in general where are we with Foote? Former first round choice of Tampa, came over in the Pickles trade 22 years old, relatively tall and heavy - is he a bust or does he have a future in the NHL and, if so, what is the timeline?

I don't believe Foote and Bastain play similar games at all.

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

Last year we were done this time of year....This year has been really good so far a lot of growth....Excited to see how this young team works through the rest of the year.....LGD...

 

[Bcap88]

It's literally like more than half of the members turned into Devils Dominion after the last loss.

Actually, a bunch after the Rangers loss, then even more after last night.

He spent the last 2 months of that season doomsaying about the Panthers and how they're coming for us and we better buckle and be scared. And then quite a few others followed suit.

This time it's happening only 2 months into the season.

Don't forget, we also have 2 games in hand on Washington. So that's potentially a bigger cushion than just 10 points.

For reference the Florida panthers had 122 points last year and still didn’t win their division by double digits

In fact, no division was settled by more than 7 points last year

 

[Bcap88]

Do you know how fast those leads disappear if your team goes on a losing streak?

Three point games makes the margin of error slim.There’s a reason why 75 percent of teams who are in the playoffs at thanksgiving make the playoffs

 

[TBF1972]

am i reading that right? 6.8M for zacha? get it done, sweeney!

those amounts are all on the high side for contract figures. i assume mcdavid would be above 20m.

Some other players of possible interest:
Zacha - 6.8
Zegras - 6.8 (most overhyped young player in the league, but is still very good)
Caulfield - 7.2
Seider - 2.6 (he has been bad this season)
Kakko - 4.3 (plays against men)
Cozens - 7.1
Suzuki - 7.9M
Petterson - 12.7
Stutzle - 10M

you should post this on the mainboard with montreal in the thread title. just make sure you don't log in for the next two weeks.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Strength of schedule doesn't really mean anything when we're still this early in the season and parity is this high. 10th overall in the league is separated from 20th overall by a total of 5 points. Edmonton, for example, is as equally far from Vegas as they are from Philly.

So what's the difference between playing the #11 overall team (NYI, 35 pts) and the #18 overall team (DET, 32 pts) right now? How does beating one make you good and beating the other make you only meh?

(Yes, I know the SoS is calculated differently that just looking at points, I'm just making a point)

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Really nice bounce back year for Novak

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I truly do not care about "strength of schedule" in hockey....its nonsense.

It's really not nonsense at all...

When you play against strong opponents, there is a much higher likelihood of losing the game as compared to when you play weaker opponents.

It absolutely matters.