Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2022-23 season thread part III

[Devs3cups]

I mean, yeah they have sucked at putting the puck in the net the last couple of weeks.

But how do draw this general conclusion from a 10 game sample size while ignoring the previous 25 game sample size that showed the opposite?

I'm not saying the team has a top 5 offense and doesn't need more finishers. But to go to the other polar extreme based on a fraction of the season so far?

Just too many people making blanket conclusions based on this stretch.

 

[Camille the Eel]

I find Tatar an infuriatingly frustrating guy to watch. Might as well interject that here because at least it's specific. I wouldn't at all mind seeing him invigorate the bottom 6 while bumping Mercer back up. At least there's some growth upside to Mercer.

Also in the general discussion, losing our first defense pair is a bummer and a major dent.

Finally, that Palat is back skating at practice? That's huge. Hopefully he returns 100%, that is a sketchy injury he's rehabbing.

 

[Eggtimer]

As much as it sucks and is frustrating , I have confidence we can get out of this funk .
They are playing the right way . They are outplaying teams and just outplayed the team that is by far the “ best “ in the NHL. They are playing sound defence ( held the Pastrnak line to 0 shots for and 11 against ) . It’s just the little things and shitty luck were a bounce here or there and we could have won every game we have lost during the skid.
They need one game to feel good about themselves . Pens game , if they can open up the floodgates , I can see them all feeling a major relief and gain some much needed confidence . They need a kickstart somehow . Like scoring a beautiful tic tac toe goal or smoke a team by numerous goals . It will come around if they keep playing like this .
Only concern is that our goaltending falls apart when we get the finishing our chances part figured out .
One boost could me Meier …. Thst would wake the room up and maybe inject some confidence and positivity into the room.
Jack with a legit elite winger … that loves to shoot and plays an interior game … yes please

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Johnsson cleared by the way

 

[SJinNewJersey]

Johnsson cleared by the way

 

[guitarguyvic]

Fitz has to figure out how to get a couple of legit top six guys who can shoot and push guys like Tatar and Haula down the depth chart.

 

[Blackjack]

We’re never gonna score!

 

[Devs3cups]

We’re never gonna score!

Erik Haula in the team bus

 

[Rhodes 81]

Some interesting individual stats (to me at least).

Removing Palat, Sharangovich is best on the team with a 14.93% shooting %. 2nd is surprising, Tatar with 13.04%. Last among regular forwards is obviously Haula at 2.94%, but I also thought Zetterlund was notable at 7.94%. The only regular forwards he is above are McLeod and Haula (and just below Wood).

Bratt leads the team in on-ice xGF% at 5v5 with 66.09%. Tatar and Hughes are both just behind him and then there's a drop to Hischier at 61.36%. McLeod is the only regular skater below 50% in this stat. The Marino-Graves pairing also fell off here but that may have something to do with usage in addition to Graves being a very perplexing player.

Looking specifically at the current sad run of 1 win in 9 games, Bratt (68.97%), Tatar (63.82%), Hughes (63.5%), Haula (59.28%) and Hischier (59.24%) lead on-ice xGF% at 5v5. Worst are McLeod (37.37%), Wood (41.12%), and Mercer (44.25%). Bahl, Holtz, and Boqvist round out the rest of the skaters under 50%. All of this is only counting players that played at least 5 games and is also a small sample size for individual stats.

Comparing overall stats from the 1-7-1 streak vs. the 21-4-1 start before that, 5v5 xGF% is 54.55 (7th in the league) as compared to 60.64% (1st) previously. High danger chances for % is 54.97% (8th) as compared to 62.58% (1st) previously. Save % is .886 (30th) as compared to previously .932 (5th). PDO is .941 (32nd) as compared to 1.026 (2nd) previously. Shooting % is 5.49% (26th) as compared to 9.35% (5th) previously.

Basically, they went from playing like the best team in the league to playing like a top 10 team in the league and simultaneously the shooting % and the goaltending tanked. This also coincided with playing better teams. It's not remotely unreasonable to expect goaltending and shooting to improve again and for them to maintain a high level of play throughout the season because literally nothing other than the results indicates that they won't.

 

[Zippy316]

Good thing Fitz didn't jump the gun on a trade yet. The team needs to pull

It's very frustrating watching no one screen the goalie during 5 on 5 enough. Nico scored crashing the net off the cycle so it's not like we don't score these types of goals. We just aren't scoring like that enough.

It’s beyond frustrating to watch. It’s rinse and repeat of enter the zone with the puck look for the pass across the royal road or into the streaking forward in the slot. Once they’re done forcing that, the other team sets up their defensive structure. They need to start mixing it up and switching it up a bit. Drive the blue paint like on Hischier’s goal, draw defenders to you, and open up the rest of the ice.

I also cannot fathom how many times Hamilton gets the puck in the offensive zone with no one remotely close to the shooting lane. You have genuinely one of the most capable shooting defenders in the league who is extremely efficient at getting the puck on net. The second there’s any indication the puck is going to be cycled around to Hamilton, there should always be a forward looking for a screen, tip, deflection, etc. in the crease.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Some interesting individual stats (to me at least).

Removing Palat, Sharangovich is best on the team with a 14.93% shooting %. 2nd is surprising, Tatar with 13.04%. Last among regular forwards is obviously Haula at 2.94%, but I also thought Zetterlund was notable at 7.94%. The only regular forwards he is above are McLeod and Haula (and just below Wood).

Bratt leads the team in on-ice xGF% at 5v5 with 66.09%. Tatar and Hughes are both just behind him and then there's a drop to Hischier at 61.36%. McLeod is the only regular skater below 50% in this stat. The Marino-Graves pairing also fell off here but that may have something to do with usage in addition to Graves being a very perplexing player.

Looking specifically at the current sad run of 1 win in 9 games, Bratt (68.97%), Tatar (63.82%), Hughes (63.5%), Haula (59.28%) and Hischier (59.24%) lead on-ice xGF% at 5v5. Worst are McLeod (37.37%), Wood (41.12%), and Mercer (44.25%). Bahl, Holtz, and Boqvist round out the rest of the skaters under 50%. All of this is only counting players that played at least 5 games and is also a small sample size for individual stats.

Comparing overall stats from the 1-7-1 streak vs. the 21-4-1 start before that, 5v5 xGF% is 54.55 (7th in the league) as compared to 60.64% (1st) previously. High danger chances for % is 54.97% (8th) as compared to 62.58% (1st) previously. Save % is .886 (30th) as compared to previously .932 (5th). PDO is .941 (32nd) as compared to 1.026 (2nd) previously. Shooting % is 5.49% (26th) as compared to 9.35% (5th) previously.

Basically, they went from playing like the best team in the league to playing like a top 10 team in the league and simultaneously the shooting % and the goaltending tanked. This also coincided with playing better teams. It's not remotely unreasonable to expect goaltending and shooting to improve again and for them to maintain a high level of play throughout the season because literally nothing other than the results indicates that they won't.

I don't know man. I appreciate the analysis, but as always, I don't see the appreciably 'tanking' goaltending. How many bad goals in the last ten, honestly? Five?
Honestly the team is playing very differently than they were during the streak, getting physically pounded, and our main players have been limited to the perimeter.

Almost every pass last night were of the long distance 'hope' variety. We aren't playing as five man units as we enter the zone as typically every zone entry is 2-on-3 or 4 instead of having defensemen in the mix.

There are lots of tight grips on sticks and little confidence.

I find it very difficult to say that their body language and play hasn't changed significantly in the past ten to match what we saw in the first three games.

 

[guitarguyvic]

I don't know man. I appreciate the analysis, but as always, I don't see the appreciably 'tanking' goaltending. How many bad goals in the last ten, honestly? Five?
Honestly the team is playing very differently than they were during the streak, getting physically pounded, and our main players have been limited to the perimeter.

Almost every pass last night were of the long distance 'hope' variety. We aren't playing as five man units as we enter the zone as typically every zone entry is 2-on-3 or 4 instead of having defensemen in the mix.

There are lots of tight grips on sticks and little confidence.

I find it very difficult to say that their body language and play hasn't changed significantly in the past ten to match what we saw in the first three games.

I see this too but I don't think it's as pronounced as you're implying.

 

[My3Sons]

Fitz has to figure out how to get a couple of legit top six guys who can shoot and push guys like Tatar and Haula down the depth chart.

Palat is one of them. Agree that one more would be helpful.

 

[billingtons ghost]

I see this too but I don't think it's as pronounced as you're implying.

Maybe it's subtle to some folks, I guess. I was at the game last night, upper tier, center ice, and it was really clear how short the passes and easy the Bruins breakouts were and how their D were engaged in the offense.

And how our typical breakout (successful ones, anyway) were Jack making 15 moves, pulling up, and either taking a shot or trying to lob a prayer of a pass backhanded cross to the entire zone to Bratt or Haula with someone trailing far behind.

It seems like our Dmen are always changing, or dusting themselves off after being wrecked in the corner...

It seems like we aren't letting the game come to us and counterattacking on the rush but instead we are pushing play up the ice and being outmanned.

The talent and desire are there but we are way off in our execution.

 

[Rhodes 81]

I don't know man. I appreciate the analysis, but as always, I don't see the appreciably 'tanking' goaltending. How many bad goals in the last ten, honestly? Five?
Honestly the team is playing very differently than they were during the streak, getting physically pounded, and our main players have been limited to the perimeter.

Almost every pass last night were of the long distance 'hope' variety. We aren't playing as five man units as we enter the zone as typically every zone entry is 2-on-3 or 4 instead of having defensemen in the mix.

There are lots of tight grips on sticks and little confidence.

I find it very difficult to say that their body language and play hasn't changed significantly in the past ten to match what we saw in the first three games.

I'll expand to say I don't think the goaltending is as much of a problem. Statistically it has been bad but we don't give up very much most games anyway. We've only given up about 3 goals over expected 5v5 in the past 9 games whereas we've scored close to 10 fewer goals than expected. You'd have to go back game by game to decide exactly which one is more costly from an actual results standpoint but in my opinion it is the shooting by a mile. The good news is basically no team ever shoots at 5.5% for a sustained period.

I agree the attack has been more disjointed compared to the winning streaks, but they're still generating a lot of chances. Bratt had multiple 1 on goal situations last night and missed, Boqvist hit the crossbar when he had beat Ullmark clean. 2 of those 3 go in and the game is a win. You can go down the list of losses and basically every game has these moments. I get that's hockey to an extent, but it is reasonable to expect that to turn around.

The players are frustrated because they aren't getting results, but they've also continued to come out and out chance some of the best teams in the league despite that. If all this was happening against shitty opponents I would be more upset but as it is I have to believe it's going to turn around eventually.

 

[billingtons ghost]

I'll expand to say I don't think the goaltending is as much of a problem. Statistically it has been bad but we don't give up very much most games anyway. We've only given up about 3 goals over expected 5v5 in the past 9 games whereas we've scored close to 10 fewer goals than expected. You'd have to go back game by game to decide exactly which one is more costly from an actual results standpoint but in my opinion it is the shooting by a mile. The good news is basically no team ever shoots at 5.5% for a sustained period.

I agree the attack has been more disjointed compared to the winning streaks, but they're still generating a lot of chances. Bratt had multiple 1 on goal situations last night and missed, Boqvist hit the crossbar when he had beat Ullmark clean. 2 of those 3 go in and the game is a win. You can go down the list of losses and basically every game has these moments. I get that's hockey to an extent, but it is reasonable to expect that to turn around.

The players are frustrated because they aren't getting results, but they've also continued to come out and out chance some of the best teams in the league despite that. If all this was happening against shitty opponents I would be more upset but as it is I have to believe it's going to turn around eventually.

I agree completely with all of this. And hopefully with bounces and goals comes confidence.

I would like to see them 'having fun' again, bc it's clear that they've forgotten how to hockey a bit.

 

[Rybo]

No different from last night?

Guess there must not have been any flare up in the locker room after all. You dont go same lines after a team meeting most times

Fitz has to figure out how to get a couple of legit top six guys who can shoot and push guys like Tatar and Haula down the depth chart.

We cant afford that. Theyd need to be pushed off the team not down the depth chart, unless you're trading other roster players

 

[New Jersey]

The players are frustrated because they aren't getting results, but they've also continued to come out and out chance some of the best teams in the league despite that. If all this was happening against shitty opponents I would be more upset but as it is I have to believe it's going to turn around eventually.

If anyone here thinks they've been playing legitimately bad hockey this December, they haven't been watching most of the last decade.

 

[Devs3cups]

No different from last night?

Guess there must not have been any flare up in the locker room after all. You dont go same lines after a team meeting most times


We cant afford that. Theyd need to be pushed off the team not down the depth chart, unless you're trading other roster players

They played fine last night. Don't see a huge need to change the lines. I Liked the Mercer/Rango line last night.

 

[New Jersey]

Palat is going to restore some diversification in our attack.

Stick with it.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Just win some games

 

[guitarguyvic]

If anyone here thinks they've been playing legitimately bad hockey this December, they haven't been watching most of the last decade.

That can't be. They've lost a bunch of close games, so obviously that means they are back to playing like bottom feeders who will crater for the remaining 47 games.

 

[Rhodes 81]

If anyone here thinks they've been playing legitimately bad hockey this December, they haven't been watching most of the last decade.

Some people have forgotten just how hopeless those teams in 2014-2016 were.

 

[Rybo]

They played fine last night. Don't see a huge need to change the lines. I Liked the Mercer/Rango line last night.

I agree they played fine last night

But theyre 8 of 9 in the losing column lately. Really dont think it wise to continue with the same lineup thats been together for a majority of that (mainly the top-6).

Love everyone on the squad but Tatar Haula Zetterlund have become overwhelmingly lackluster during this stretch. Some of them should be cycled down a line or two. Bratt too but I cant justify moving him down

 

[Eggtimer]

I agree they played fine last night

But theyre 8 of 9 in the losing column lately. Really dont think it wise to continue with the same lineup thats been together for a majority of that (mainly the top-6).

Love everyone on the squad but Tatar Haula Zetterlund have become overwhelmingly lackluster during this stretch. Some of them should be cycled down a line or two. Bratt too but I cant justify moving him down

It’s everyone that is struggling . Nico , Bratt were playing way better at the start of the year . No one is really scoring like they can.
Hopefully Palat helps the lines out by players slotting into spots where they are best suited.
Adding one more top 6 winger would be ideal
A legit finisher . Not a borderline 2nd line player , but a true first line player .