Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2022-23 season thread part III

[JrFischer54]

I think my favorite schtick from people like this is that every time, the "rebuild" grows longer

question for you- do you think the better team always wins in sports?



"you know theyre due for a market correction on one of these and its the one that fits my narrative and ONLY that one!"

well i dunno you tell me when is the rebuild going to finally end?

of course not but if you are the "better team" and constantly losing are you really the better team? of course you will bring out some cool graphs and trackers and heat maps to prove how much better the devils are and how we have been getting "goalied" btw i'm going to tm that and put it on t shirts. keep clutching those stats

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Let's just go game by game before we start dreaming who we beat and how many points we get from what. We were suppose to beat the Isles Rags and Flyers with ease and get 6 points from the 2xFLA, 2x BOS, CAR stretch. At this point it seems anything can happen.

It would be nice to pull what the Rangers did for a couple weeks and start playing much worse while shooting like 15% so it doesn’t matter.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

well i dunno you tell me when is the rebuild going to finally end?

of course not but if you are the "better team" and constantly losing are you really the better team? of course you will bring out some cool graphs and trackers and heat maps to prove how much better the devils are and how we have been getting "goalied" btw i'm going to tm that and put it on t shirts. keep clutching those stats

you mean facts? That are based on events that occur on the ice, during the games?

 

[JrFischer54]

you mean facts? That are based on events that occur on the ice, during the games?

yes post all the facts on how we should've won the game and we didnt win the game. whatever floats your boat bud we will be cup champions of the stat world! think we can hang a banner? corsi champs! 2023

 

[guitarguyvic]

well i dunno you tell me when is the rebuild going to finally end?

of course not but if you are the "better team" and constantly losing are you really the better team? of course you will bring out some cool graphs and trackers and heat maps to prove how much better the devils are and how we have been getting "goalied" btw i'm going to tm that and put it on t shirts. keep clutching those stats

What is your point on all this?
I'm totally onboard with not assuming that stat lines can always tell the most accurate story. I don't think the analytics the last couple of years truly captured how bad our puck management and defense was, and how much that negatively impacted the goaltending. You could see it watching the games. The advanced metrics were missing something, for certain.

But you can't go in the complete opposite direction and assume that losses always mean the team played bad, no matter what the stats say or your eyes tell you. Did the Devils not have more breakaways and odd-man rushes than Boston last night? Did they not generate more prime scoring chances? Did they not make less mistakes then Boston did? They did better than Boston in every one of those categories. You don't even need to look at the fancy stats, you just had to be watching.

Did the Devils fail to convert on those chances? Yes. Do they seem a fraction of a second slower than usual in their offensive decision making and could that be why they aren't converting now? Yes I think so. Does this make them a bad team, and should we expect them to continue to fail this much at converting chances for the another 10+ games? I don't think so. It might happen, but I don't think it should be assumed to be likely.

Is the rebuild over...I don't know. Being in a playoff position in December is progress. Being able to go toe-to-toe and play within a one goal margin against top teams is progress. Being able to play respectable defense consistently is progress. Being capable of winning 22 of 25 games is progress. We still need a legit sniper, and bigger bodies in the top 6. We still need to play more physical and/or figure out how to withstand opponent's physicality. We still need to figure out how to win games in different ways, when other teams stifle our strengths.

If you take a step back this is actually an exciting time. Even now in the midst of this slump. Now we get to see what these guys are made of. How will they fare over the next couple of months? Even if they fall out of a playoff spot, if they rebound to winning ways and just fall short in the 9th position...that is STILL progress. And we (more importantly Fitz) will get more evidence of which weaknesses need to be addressed.

 

[Normal Devil]

Frustrating that this team can’t seem to find the answers. No one is going to feel sorry for them that they’re down two top-4 D.

Majorly disappointed with how anonymous Bratt has been. Just a total no-show.

Lulls like this might be why Fitzy hasn't given him the monster deal.

 

[Better Call Sal]

 

[guitarguyvic]

Lulls like this might be why Fitzy hasn't given him the monster deal.

I mean...Fitz has been pretty darn good about locking up young players. You have to think there's a good reason he hasn't been willing to give Bratt the contract he's demanding. As the GM he should have a better pulse of the team and the players than us fans. Maybe he recognizes that this is what Bratt is...a very good play driver but not someone that can be counted on to consistently deliver production at the highest level.

I'm conflicted. On the one hand I understand spreading things out so four lines can be rolled. On the flip side, Mercer is a top 6 forward and Shara's skill set is better suited for the top lines as well. While guys like Zetterlund, Haula, and Tatar are clearly not top 6 material. With the team in an offensive slump, maybe it makes sense to overload those top two lines with the best players for at least a game to see if it sparks something.

 

[NJDfan86]

I'm conflicted. On the one hand I understand spreading things out so four lines can be rolled. On the flip side, Mercer is a top 6 forward and Shara's skill set is better suited for the top lines as well. While guys like Zetterlund, Haula, and Tatar are clearly not top 6 material. With the team in an offensive slump, maybe it makes sense to overload those top two lines with the best players for at least a game to see if it sparks something.

In agreement on this one - I also don't think moving Z / Haula / Tatar down hurts our bottom 6 from a forecheck or defense perspective since they are all solid there. Might be tough for them to score, but its been tough for us to score with the talent more evenly distributed as is.

At the bare minimum Lindy needs to be ready to make these changes in game if the Devils are controlling the run of play at 5v5 again but can't bury their chances. Sharangovich was flying in the 1st last night, Lindy should have moved him up once he saw what he was bringing but he waited until the late 3rd.

 

[Oneiro]

I’d like to see

Bratt-Hischier-Zetterlund
Tatar-Hughes-Mercer
Sharangovich-Haula-Boqvist
Wood-McLeod-Thompson

 

[Billdo]

Bratt-Hughes-Mercer
Sharangovich-Hischier-Zetterlund
Tatar-Haula-Boqvist
Wood-McLeod-Thompson

 

[JrFischer54]

What is your point on all this?
I'm totally onboard with not assuming that stat lines can always tell the most accurate story. I don't think the analytics the last couple of years truly captured how bad our puck management and defense was, and how much that negatively impacted the goaltending. You could see it watching the games. The advanced metrics were missing something, for certain.

But you can't go in the complete opposite direction and assume that losses always mean the team played bad, no matter what the stats say or your eyes tell you. Did the Devils not have more breakaways and odd-man rushes than Boston last night? Did they not generate more prime scoring chances? Did they not make less mistakes then Boston did? They did better than Boston in every one of those categories. You don't even need to look at the fancy stats, you just had to be watching.

Did the Devils fail to convert on those chances? Yes. Do they seem a fraction of a second slower than usual in their offensive decision making and could that be why they aren't converting now? Yes I think so. Does this make them a bad team, and should we expect them to continue to fail this much at converting chances for the another 10+ games? I don't think so. It might happen, but I don't think it should be assumed to be likely.

Is the rebuild over...I don't know. Being in a playoff position in December is progress. Being able to go toe-to-toe and play within a one goal margin against top teams is progress. Being able to play respectable defense consistently is progress. Being capable of winning 22 of 25 games is progress. We still need a legit sniper, and bigger bodies in the top 6. We still need to play more physical and/or figure out how to withstand opponent's physicality. We still need to figure out how to win games in different ways, when other teams stifle our strengths.

If you take a step back this is actually an exciting time. Even now in the midst of this slump. Now we get to see what these guys are made of. How will they fare over the next couple of months? Even if they fall out of a playoff spot, if they rebound to winning ways and just fall short in the 9th position...that is STILL progress. And we (more importantly Fitz) will get more evidence of which weaknesses need to be addressed.

just enough with the stats that claim we are a better team this night that night and yet we still lost "goalied" argument. better teams find ways to win games not just point to stats showing why we should've won.

 

[NJDfan86]

just enough with the stats that claim we are a better team this night that night and yet we still lost "goalied" argument. better teams find ways to win games not just point to stats showing why we should've won.

The Bruins lost to Ottawa the night before, this statement is complete bunk because if the "better" team always found the way to win they wouldn't lose at all.

That is why people look at the context of the game (stats) to determine if their team played well and lost, played poorly and lost, played great and won, or played poorly and won - because all 4 of those outcomes are possible in any hockey game regardless of the two teams playing. your failure (either intentional or not) to understand people applying context to wins and losses is just blinding you, and you get caught up in peoples flippant, shorthand statements like "we got goalied" when what they really mean is - The Devils played well and lost.

 

[guitarguyvic]

just enough with the stats that claim we are a better team this night that night and yet we still lost "goalied" argument. better teams find ways to win games not just point to stats showing why we should've won.

A better than bubble team might find a way to eek out more of these wins, yeah. Maybe we are just a bubble team though? If so...isn't that still progress?
Or maybe we are better than a bubble team but this is just a bad stretch. A stretch that so far only accounts for about a third of the season so far. Why is this stretch any more indicative of who they are then the first two thirds? And don't say anything about last year...again even just going by the eye test this team is not anything like last year's team.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Bratt-Hughes-Mercer
Sharangovich-Hischier-Zetterlund
Tatar-Haula-Boqvist
Wood-McLeod-Thompson

I might switch up Brat and Shara but yeah this is what I meant by overloading the top 6. That third line might be a black hole offensively but I doubt they get cratered defensively against the other team's bottom 6, so I don't think it's severely hampering the team from rolling all four lines.

 

[JrFischer54]

A better than bubble team might find a way to eek out more of these wins, yeah. Maybe we are just a bubble team though? If so...isn't that still progress?
Or maybe we are better than a bubble team but this is just a bad stretch. A stretch that so far only accounts for about a third of the season so far. Why is this stretch any more indicative of who they are then the first two thirds? And don't say anything about last year...again even just going by the eye test this team is not anything like last year's team.

guess just have to see how it ends this season then

 

[guitarguyvic]

LOL at this constant narrative nonsense whenever you don’t agree with something, what’s more likely a streaky team finishing maybe a few games above .500 at home or playing to an .850 point percentage on the road for an entire season?

Well the rebuttal to this would be, they are actually a pretty good team and there will be a market correction to both (home record improves, road record levels off).

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

just enough with the stats that claim we are a better team this night that night and yet we still lost "goalied" argument. better teams find ways to win games not just point to stats showing why we should've won.

Sounds pretty stupid to me. You objected to someone posting a stat about holding Pastrnak’s line to 0 shots. You know, the guy that killed us the game before. When the wins start coming again, you’ll be puzzled because you have zero intellectual curiosity. It’s actually not hard to imagine this team winning a lot of games again, without making some stupid panic trade.

When the wins start coming when Palat is back, it will be because of “veteran leadership” and not the shooting percentage coming out of the cellar, I guess.

 

[Zippy316]

Team really needs to start funnel more pucks to the net with traffic or when they have guys driving the net.

There’s too much looking for the perfect play. Shoot for deflections, scrambles in front, chaos, etc. That in turn will open up the rest of the ice when teams aren’t just covering the pass option every single time.

Not having 18 and 14 hurts a bit here, as the forward group isn’t really equipped for crash the net hockey. But we really need to have our more capable guys going to the net for screens, tips, and opening up space for the other forwards.

 

[FooteBahl]

just enough with the stats that claim we are a better team this night that night and yet we still lost "goalied" argument. better teams find ways to win games not just point to stats showing why we should've won.

If the stats played the game, we’d be like 20-5 due to our analytics domination. Blah blah blah we had 3.476 xG last night…you can get a good look at expected goals by sticking your head up a statisticians ass, but I’d rather take the goalies word for it.

For me, the stats do align with the eye-test, but my eyes also see that 3/4 of our forwards couldn’t shoot their way out of a paper bag.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Good thing Fitz didn't jump the gun on a trade yet. The team needs to pull

Team really needs to start funnel more pucks to the net with traffic or when they have guys driving the net.

There’s too much looking for the perfect play. Shoot for deflections, scrambles in front, chaos, etc. That in turn will open up the rest of the ice when teams aren’t just covering the pass option every single time.

Not having 18 and 14 hurts a bit here, as the forward group isn’t really equipped for crash the net hockey. But we really need to have our more capable guys going to the net for screens, tips, and opening up space for the other forwards.

It's very frustrating watching no one screen the goalie during 5 on 5 enough. Nico scored crashing the net off the cycle so it's not like we don't score these types of goals. We just aren't scoring like that enough.

 

[guitarguyvic]

If the stats played the game, we’d be like 20-5 due to our analytics domination. Blah blah blah we had 3.476 xG last night…you can get a good look at expected goals by sticking your head up a statisticians ass, but I’d rather take the goalies word for it.

For me, the stats do align with the eye-test, but my eyes also see that 3/4 of our forwards couldn’t shoot their way out of a paper bag.

I mean, yeah they have sucked at putting the puck in the net the last couple of weeks.

But how do draw this general conclusion from a 10 game sample size while ignoring the previous 25 game sample size that showed the opposite?

I'm not saying the team has a top 5 offense and doesn't need more finishers. But to go to the other polar extreme based on a fraction of the season so far?

Just too many people making blanket conclusions based on this stretch.

 

[Devs3cups]

 

[FooteBahl]

I mean, yeah they have sucked at putting the puck in the net the last couple of weeks.

But how do draw this general conclusion from a 10 game sample size while ignoring the previous 25 game sample size that showed the opposite?

I'm not saying the team has a top 5 offense and doesn't need more finishers. But to go to the other polar extreme based on a fraction of the season so far?

Just too many people making blanket conclusions based on this stretch.

It’s something that has plagued us for several seasons now. My sample size is nearly 200 games. We pass and move like the Harlem Globetrotters and then shoot like Shaq taking free throws.

 

[guitarguyvic]

It’s something that has plagued us for several seasons now. My sample size is nearly 200 games. We pass and move like the Harlem Globetrotters and then shoot like Shaq taking free throws.

The Devils were 19th in the league last year in scoring. 16th in shooting percentage, which was 9.4%. They are generating more chances this year than last. If they shoot at the same percentage as last year, the offense will finish in the top 10 range.

They are average finishers. There is no large sample size that suggests they are as bad as you and others are saying.