Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[Incharge1976]

Yes, I am aware you are a fool.

Take 1 singular look at the RHD free agent market this offseason.

They all pale in comparison to hamilton.

Beyond Ekblad, who's worse than Dougie and will be looking for big money and some hefty term, if he even makes it to UFA, you're looking at shit.

Maybe this argument would have made sense in last years UFA market with Pesce, Roy, Montour, Tanev, Walker.

And if Ekblad does make it to UFA, name 1 RD the florida panthers have. There's your team to sell too.

Why are you so abrasive?

In case you haven't noticed, we need upgrades to our F core. The easiest and wisest thing to do is deal from strength to fill holes. The most obvious choice is to move Hamilton since it opens up $9,000,000 in cap space. and we have 3 really good prospects. They may not have the same shot as Dougie but they have skills Dougie doesn't have, and the money saved can be used to sign other players.

No one here wants this team to be all about the PP and when that doesn't work we get shutout. If this were pre-2005 without the cap, sure. The problem is it isn't and teams make moves all the time to improve other areas.

Last season, the difference between us at the 12th ranked PP and the top PP in the league was exactly 16 goals %-wise. The difference between us and #2 (Carolina) was 12 goals. In 2023-23, the difference between us and the 2nd ranked PP was 4%.

We don't need to hold onto an aging player with a $9M cap hit just to score 10 to 15 more goals when that money can be used on a player that has helped make us better on D, can bring in a F or two to help even out the lines where we exceed those 10 to 15 goals we lose on the PP, and helps open up spots for our line of D prospects.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I’m a big Hamilton fan, and would hate to see him go. I think he’s always been underrated, even by our own fan base after watching him have some incredible seasons. If he’s moved this off season, it’ll be one of those deals that hurt for the first season but we will be laughing about it the following seasons, especially if Luke is signed for less than 9. I think Luke is capable of picking up the slack, and Nemec or Casey need a path to a roster spot.

I’m not even going to mention kova yet. He’s 33 games into his career with the devils, not even worth considering making additional moves to fit him in yet. Lot of hockey left in this season, the outlook could look very different by the time the off season starts. What if the devils make the playoffs and have a deep run and Hamilton has 15 points in 20 games? Is everyone eager to jettison him off the team still or do we wait another year?

if he has a strong playoffs, it would push me even harder to move him because at that point, some team might overpay for him.

 

[Bad Goalie]

I am always promoting positives thoughts towards Tom Fitzgerald our GM and all the other titles.

He said at his Christmas News Presser that he was happy with the Devils D. I am also. As you know I promote "Defense Wins Games." I am happy that Fitz is happy. That can only mean most Devils fans are happy at the right time the Holidays for most of us.

Fitz is happy with Keefe as we should be along with Keefe's system of Play.

Fitz is happy with the progress of the Luke Hughes upcoming contract and the discussion. The only snag would be if Luke wanted 5 instead of 8 years. I expect 8 years at $10M, can you imagine for a kid, a great one at that. Tom is thinking 8 years at $9M.

I know we still have some offensive holes to fill I have all the confidence in Tom Fitz to get those plugged soon.

Goalie, they are a breed unto themselves. They play hot and cold, very good and then very bad. What we want is one that balances out over time to be more on the plus side. Markstrom was not my first choice but that is over he is what we have with Allen. Give then both positive thoughts each game they play.

Happy and Healthy Holidays to each of you and your families. May 2025 be your best year to date.

Go Devils

And a Happy Holiday to you. Hope you are getting along well. Your posts are always positive and for the negative world we now live in they are uplifting.

 

[JK3]

 

[RANDOMH3RO]

if he has a strong playoffs, it would push me even harder to move him because at that point, some team might overpay for him.

I guess minds are made up about Hamilton regardless of results because it’s the savvy move. Hope they win a cup for him this year so I don’t feel so bad seeing him shipped out for peanuts.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Cruel part of the business. He’s been nothing short of steady filling in for Curtis this whole time.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I guess minds are made up about Hamilton regardless of results because it’s the savvy move. Hope they win a cup for him this year so I don’t feel so bad seeing him shipped out for peanuts.

Look, I like Hamilton. There are not many better running the PP than him. And he seems like a genuinely good guy.

But, its like the old Bill Belichick adage. "Its better to get rid of a guy a year too soon rather than a year too late". Luke is going to be paid a ton of money and has the skillset (albeit a different one) to run the PP.

If we didn't have the glutton of D prospects that we have, I would definitely feel different about this. Now if you want to tell me that they package Nemec up for a forward, and are able to somehow dump Palat? Okay then maybe we can have a different conversation.

 

[JK3]

Cruel part of the business. He’s been nothing short of steady filling in for Curtis this whole time.

That would suck to lose him, he was solid. We need all the centers we can get.

 

[TrufleShufle]

I guess minds are made up about Hamilton regardless of results because it’s the savvy move. Hope they win a cup for him this year so I don’t feel so bad seeing him shipped out for peanuts.

If we win the cup this year, I'd imagine it won't be for peanuts and would give Fitz a longer leash in being a "jerk GM." If a winning team wants to sign you, you are much less likely to think of the "harsh" ways they did business. Vegas and Tampa come to mind.

If it works, it's hard to argue against, even retroactively. There are just as many players who want to be on winning teams as there are who want money. It's great if you have both.

 

[RANDOMH3RO]

Look, I like Hamilton. There are not many better running the PP than him. And he seems like a genuinely good guy.

But, its like the old Bill Belichick adage. "Its better to get rid of a guy a year too soon rather than a year too late". Luke is going to be paid a ton of money and has the skillset (albeit a different one) to run the PP.

If we didn't have the glutton of D prospects that we have, I would definitely feel different about this. Now if you want to tell me that they package Nemec up for a forward, and are able to somehow dump Palat? Okay then maybe we can have a different conversation.

Ya my preference to have Hamilton around is purely sentimental I just like the guy. Not opposed at all to making the move for hockey reasons. I do think his skill set is underrated by lots so I like to defend him but it is clear he’s the easiest one to move on from currently. If the conversation in the exact same by July, I would have no problems whatsoever seeing if a team like Sam Jose would bite on a deal for him.

 

[dgibb10]

Why are you so abrasive?

In case you haven't noticed, we need upgrades to our F core. The easiest and wisest thing to do is deal from strength to fill holes. The most obvious choice is to move Hamilton since it opens up $9,000,000 in cap space. and we have 3 really good prospects. They may not have the same shot as Dougie but they have skills Dougie doesn't have, and the money saved can be used to sign other players.

No one here wants this team to be all about the PP and when that doesn't work we get shutout. If this were pre-2005 without the cap, sure. The problem is it isn't and teams make moves all the time to improve other areas.

Last season, the difference between us at the 12th ranked PP and the top PP in the league was exactly 16 goals %-wise. The difference between us and #2 (Carolina) was 12 goals. In 2023-23, the difference between us and the 2nd ranked PP was 4%.

We don't need to hold onto an aging player with a $9M cap hit just to score 10 to 15 more goals when that money can be used on a player that has helped make us better on D, can bring in a F or two to help even out the lines where we exceed those 10 to 15 goals we lose on the PP, and helps open up spots for our line of D prospects.

I think you vastly underestimate how much 15 goals of value is.

If you think our PP would drop off by 15 goals you should absolutely NOT be advocating for replacing Dougie Hamilton.

Let alone the fact that he is yes, still better than the kids 5v5.

 

[Incharge1976]

This idea that we need to have the best PP in the world and sacrifice other areas is silly.

2020 - Lightning wins SC with a 23.3 PP%, which was 3.3% better than the 16th best PP%

2021 - Lightning wins SC with a 22.3 PP%, which was 2.3% better than the 16th best PP%

2022 - Colorado wins SC with a 24 PP%, which was 2.8% better than the 16th best PP%

2023 - Knights win the SC with a 20.3% PP% which was 18th in the league

2024 - Panthers win SC with a 23.5 PP%, which was 2.8% better than the 16th best PP%


I'm not keeping around someone who is a net negative on D, getting slower by the year, and has a huge cap hit just so we can score 10 - 15 more goals on the PP while leaving other areas hurting.

 

[dgibb10]

This idea that we need to have the best PP in the world and sacrifice other areas is silly.

2020 - Lightning wins SC with a 23.3 PP%, which was 3.3% better than the 16th best PP%

2021 - Lightning wins SC with a 22.3 PP%, which was 2.3% better than the 16th best PP%

2022 - Colorado wins SC with a 24 PP%, which was 2.8% better than the 16th best PP%

2023 - Knights win the SC with a 20.3% PP% which was 18th in the league

2024 - Panthers win SC with a 23.5 PP%, which was 2.8% better than the 16th best PP%


I'm not keeping around someone who is a net negative on D, getting slower by the year, and has a huge cap hit just so we can score 10 - 15 more goals on the PP while leaving other areas hurting.

"Net negative on D"

He has a 54.4% xGoals share, top 40 in the league.

Pretending Dougie Hamilton is a net negative 5v5 is legitimately insane.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I adore Dougie but you're out of your mind if you keep a PP specialist at 9M and getting worse 5v5 when this team can use that money elsewhere and once again, the powerplay sucked ass last year because Jack Hughes had no shoulder, it was NOT because we missed Hamliton

 

[Incharge1976]

I think you vastly underestimate how much 15 goals of value is.

If you think our PP would drop off by 15 goals you should absolutely NOT be advocating for replacing Dougie Hamilton.

Let alone the fact that he is yes, still better than the kids 5v5.

You have it backwards. Dougie's value is on the PP, not 5 on 5. He is a net negative at 5 on 5.

You're overestimating what Dougie brings to the table,.

No one said we would lose 15 goals on the PP. My point is that the difference between an elite PP and middle of the road is like 4% which over the course of the season is like 10 goals.

$9,000,000 is not worth 10 goals for a guy who is slowing down and will need to be sheltered increasingly because of his lack of speed. That money could be used elsewhere to more than make up for those goals while helping retain people who are only going to get better.

 

[dgibb10]

I adore Dougie but you're out of your mind if you keep a PP specialist at 9M and getting worse 5v5 when this team can use that money elsewhere and once again, the powerplay sucked ass last year because Jack Hughes had no shoulder, it was NOT because we missed Hamliton

It's a weird narrative about dougie 5v5 that 54% isn't excellent results.

As has been HAMMERED home in here, our forward core is quote "not good enough" and that is healthy, let alone a mostly AHL fourth line we've been running.

So if our forward core isn't good enough, why is Dougie having a 54.4% xGoals share with said forward core alongside by far our worst LD (let's be honest) somehow a negative?

 

[TheBeerNerd]

We can't hang on for Dougie for too long. It's an unfortunate fact. He's been great for us, he really enjoys it here (especially compared to his previous stops), and he's a fan favorite. But beyond this season, he's just gonna block Casey and Nemec.

 

[dgibb10]

You have it backwards. Dougie's value is on the PP, not 5 on 5. He is a net negative at 5 on 5.

You're overestimating what Dougie brings to the table,.

No one said we would lose 15 goals on the PP. My point is that the difference between an elite PP and middle of the road is like 4% which over the course of the season is like 10 goals.

$9,000,000 is not worth 10 goals for a guy who is slowing down and will need to be sheltered increasingly because of his lack of speed. That money could be used elsewhere to more than make up for those goals while helping retain people who are only going to get better.

Out of 176 dmen to play 300 minutes 5v5, dougie ranks 34th in 5v5 xGoal differential at 0.51 goals/60 minutes. Tied with Quinn Hughes btw.

Unless the claim is that our forward group is ridiculously good and carrying him (while meanwhile also claiming our forward core needs to be upgraded), or that Dillon is carrying him, how on earth is he a net negative 5v5.

10 goals is once again, much more significant than you think for 1 player. The estimated cost to buy a goal above replacement is around 900k.

 

[Bad Goalie]

Cruel part of the business. He’s been nothing short of steady filling in for Curtis this whole time.

This fact causes me concern. He was and will still be the best center the Comets can ice.
Other NHL teams may have seen his competence on the 4th line and take their chance on him. If not Utica will breathe a sigh of relief and welcome him back.
If he clears tomorrow at noon, it may be way too much to ask to see him in Cleveland for games Wednesday and Thursday. Losses there would put the Comets right back where they started as a 5-game losing streak would erase the 5 game winning streak they compiled after their 1st win of the season.

 

[Incharge1976]

Out of 176 dmen to play 300 minutes 5v5, dougie ranks 34th in 5v5 xGoal differential at 0.51 goals/60 minutes. Tied with Quinn Hughes btw.

Unless the claim is that our forward group is ridiculously good and carrying him (while meanwhile also claiming our forward core needs to be upgraded), or that Dillon is carrying him, how on earth is he a net negative 5v5.

Now do his xGA / 60

And after you do that, substract the xGA / 60 from the xGF / 60 and let me know what you get.

 

[dgibb10]

Now do his xGA / 60

xGoal differential has both for and against. That's why it's called a differential.

for is 3.17/60
against is 2.66/60

I don't care if a player is

11 for and 10.5 against

or 0.5 for and 0 against.

 

[Incharge1976]

xGoal differential has both for and against. That's why it's called a differential.

for is 3.17/60
against is 2.66/60

I don't care if a player is

11 for and 10.5 against

or 0.5 for and 0 against.

Just stop. He is the 13th worst D in the league for xGA / 60.

You are ignoring the fact that Dougie plays a significant amount of his time with offensive zone starts or on the PP, and ignoring that he is one of the worst D in the league when not in those situations.

 

[Incharge1976]

You just threw out that he had a xGF / 60 of 0.51 (Quinn is 0.95 by the way) and when I point out that he is 13th worst in the league for xGA / 60, you dismiss it after bringing up the xGF / 60.

 

[britdevil]

Dougie discourse makes me sad. Kills the boner.

 

[dgibb10]

Just stop. He is the 13th worst D in the league for xGA / 60.

You are ignoring the fact that Dougie plays a significant amount of his time with offensive zone starts or on the PP, and ignoring that he is one of the worst D in the league when not in those situations.

"He is the 13th worst D in the league for xGA / 60."
False

"significant amount of his time with offensive zone starts"

No, not really. For reference Cale Makar gets above 20% of his shifts starting in the ozone

"or on the PP"

PP ice time doesn't go into these metrics unless you use all situations which would be stupid. If you did use all situations, dougie jumps to number 1 in the league in basically every category because he is that effective on the power play. But again, using all situations is stupid