Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[dgibb10]

Everyone with a different opinion is a fool. You can keep posting your stats, of which none are interesting. Not a close call, very comfortable moving on from the player in the offseason given what we have on the roster and in the pipeline.

It’s also pretty funny to do the brain genius act while pretending Dougie has been remotely good defensively this season. Try watching some games?

Dougie-Dillon play high event hockey.

Siegs-Kovy play low event hockey


You give blame to Dougie/Dillon for every chance against them, which yes, is significantly more than Kovy-Siegs, but do not give them credit for all of what they generate, which is also significantly more than Kovy-Siegs.

It's understandable how you can miss the things dougie does. His timing with passes, his accuracy, his effectiveness in setting those little pick plays. The threat of his shot. Because he doesn't go end to end the way Luke does you don't realize the impact he's having on the teams offense.

But it's there, and it's consistent.

Dougie Hamilton on the ice=elite level offense.

How about you try watching games and actually pay attention. Keep track of the offense NJD generates with each pairing on the ice.

 

[Perratrooper]

No, I really don't think you do.

NJDs success this year is largely driven by having the best power play in hockey, which is drivenn in large part by dougie hamilton.

If you're pretending that having an elite PP doesn't matter, you're a fool.
If you're pretending that losing dougie won't hurt said power play, you're a fool.

Also, if you're pretending losing Dougie won't hurt significantly 5v5, you're also a fool.

There are 9 total dman in the NHL to put up a better 5v5 xGoals differential than dougie's 0.63/60 over the last 3 years.


Yes I understand you are scared at the thought of Rantanen walking as a UFA or being sold as the rental that he is.

But slapping "resigned" onto his name doesn't suddenly triple his value.

I mean Rantanen as a rental has insane value. So even if we looked at a players like Hertl who received the equivalent of two first round picks or Guentzel who received a first and two recent second rounders, I think it’s safe to say that Rantanen’s value would be higher than that.

So if you want to view it as a rental only, what are you willing to give up?

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

We’ve won with a PP providing zero for a few games now. Because we’re holding teams to dead puck era level numbers of chances. Our shutdown pairing is essential to that and are far less likely to get exposed in the playoffs than the cone pairing.

 

[My3Sons]

Fair enough, I was more so trying to understand if Devils fans have any interest in a re-signed Rantanen. If you/other fans don’t want to explore that option and just view him as a rental type player then it answers my question of it’s worthwhile having that conversation.

I think if that were the case the Avs would just keep him as their own rental.

Just as a reference point, he’s said to want $14m as a true UFA, which equates to $12.25m if it were to be over 8 years instead of 7.

The problem with this sort of scenario is that the acquiring team has to pay the full UFA market rate. NJ already did this with Meier. They gave up a decent number of assets and then they are backed into a corner and have to sign him at his number. NJ doesn't need to be paying Rantanen over $12 mil per assuming he'd even be open to it.

 

[dgibb10]

I mean Rantanen as a rental has insane value. So even if we looked at a players like Hertl who received the equivalent of two first round picks or Guentzel who received a first and two recent second rounders, I think it’s safe to say that Rantanen’s value would be higher than that.

So if you want to view it as a rental only, what are you willing to give up?

In order to fit cap, would either have to be 75% retained or a dump involved (Palat)+ retention.

Hertl wasn't a rental he had 6 years left and a bunch of money was eaten over term.


2 1sts of value would be my offer for him at 4.6 then a 3rd to the team who eats the 50%. Now, what that value looks like is up to how both GMs value assets and their needs.

Guentzel at 4.5 fetched 2nd and 3 prospects. The pick had conditions to upgrade tho.

 

[dgibb10]

We’ve won with a PP providing zero for a few games now. Because we’re holding teams to dead puck era level numbers of chances. Our shutdown pairing is essential to that and are far less likely to get exposed in the playoffs than the cone pairing.

View attachment 946660

Please look at the lines above what you highlighted where it also shows that dougie generates significantly more offensively.

And once again, we are talking about a guy who's played at this high level for a decade, vs a guy who's done it for 30 games.

If you could guarantee Kovacevic plays at this level long term he'd be worth the moon. But you can't. There is a massive risk there.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Please look at the lines above what you highlighted where it also shows that dougie generates significantly more offensively.

And once again, we are talking about a guy who's played at this high level for a decade, vs a guy who's done it for 30 games.

If you could guarantee Kovacevic plays at this level long term he'd be worth the moon. But you can't. There is a massive risk there.

I wonder if the 2nd overall pick, that already demonstrated he can generate lots of offense at 5 on 5, can generate some offense in a sheltered role next season? This is the entire crux of the discussion. Yes, I believe he can generate chances and bleed chances, which is what Dougie does these days. That pairing got exposed by the Blackhawks just the other day.

You also can’t guarantee Dougie doesn’t get hurt again or lose another step in skating speed. Athletics isn’t the business of guarantees.

 

[JimEIV]

Kovacevic will be cheap. Relatively speaking.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

poor Dougie Hamilton, he signed here to help us win but it was just a bit too early for when we'd contend; shame we probably do our best when hes gone, he deserves a chance at a Cup

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

poor Dougie Hamilton, he signed here to help us win but it was just a bit too early for when we'd contend; shame we probably do our best when hes gone, he deserves a chance at a Cup

Severson had it even worse, guy was our 1D in our shittest era and only had one really good year out of it and now lives in Columbus Ohio

 

[dgibb10]

I wonder if the 2nd overall pick, that already demonstrated he can generate lots of offense at 5 on 5, can generate some offense in a sheltered role next season? This is the entire crux of the discussion. Yes, I believe he can generate chances and bleed chances, which is what Dougie does these days. That pairing got exposed by the Blackhawks just the other day.

You also can’t guarantee Dougie doesn’t get hurt again or lose another step in skating speed. Athletics isn’t the business of guarantees.

Yes, I believe in Nemec.

But you can a) understand that it will have a significant impact on our PP
and b) has a very significant risk to cost us big time 5v5.

He still generates a lot more than he gives up, which you don't seem to understand.

You're letting the also excellent play of Luke, Siegs, Kovy, and Pesce this year blind you to the fact that Hamilton is still excellent.


And you are also being utterly ridiculous in your price of him

selling him at a 7.5 mill cap hit and a 4 mill real dollar hit for a 2nd is DISGUSTING.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Yes, I believe in Nemec.

But you can a) understand that it will have a significant impact on our PP
and b) has a very significant risk to cost us big time 5v5.

He still generates a lot more than he gives up, which you don't seem to understand.

You're letting the also excellent play of Luke, Siegs, Kovy, and Pesce this year blind you to the fact that Hamilton is still excellent.


And you are also being utterly ridiculous in your price of him

selling him at a 7.5 mill cap hit and a 4 mill real dollar hit for a 2nd is DISGUSTING.

That would be a nice piece of business. Not many teams that Dougie would likely have on his trade clause will have room for or interest in him. I doubt you’re coaxing a 1st out of anyone.

 

[NJDevs26]

OH MY

 

[dgibb10]

That would be a nice piece of business. Not many teams that Dougie would likely have on his trade clause will have room for or interest in him. I doubt you’re coaxing a 1st out of anyone.

It wouldn't be a nice piece of business at all.

You'd be getting fleeced.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

It wouldn't be a nice piece of business at all.

You'd be getting fleeced.

I’d happily get fleeced then. Give me the 7.5 million in cap space, a spot for my 2nd overall pick to play, and a 2nd round pick.

 

[dgibb10]

I’d happily get fleeced then. Give me the 7.5 million in cap space, a spot for my 2nd overall pick to play, and a 2nd round pick.

Yes, I am aware you are a fool.

Take 1 singular look at the RHD free agent market this offseason.

They all pale in comparison to hamilton.

Beyond Ekblad, who's worse than Dougie and will be looking for big money and some hefty term, if he even makes it to UFA, you're looking at shit.

Maybe this argument would have made sense in last years UFA market with Pesce, Roy, Montour, Tanev, Walker.

And if Ekblad does make it to UFA, name 1 RD the florida panthers have. There's your team to sell too.

 

[Triumph]

Last thing I will say about Hamilton in here but one thing working against having confidence in any of this - re-signing Kovacevic, trading Hamilton - is basically that the pairings haven't changed all season. There's been no reason to change them, but I would like to see Hamilton with Siegenthaler and Kovacevic with Dillon for some extended stretches this season to maybe get at who is more responsible for whose success. It's possible that Hamilton is really being weighed down by Dillon.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

getting rid of Hamilton is not about what we get back in return....it is about clearing cap space and clearing a roster spot for Nemec/Kovacevic longterm.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Yes, I am aware you are a fool.

Take 1 singular look at the RHD free agent market this offseason.

They all pale in comparison to hamilton.

Beyond Ekblad, who's worse than Dougie and will be looking for big money and some hefty term, if he even makes it to UFA, you're looking at shit.

Maybe this argument would have made sense in last years UFA market with Pesce, Roy, Montour, Tanev, Walker.

And if Ekblad does make it to UFA, name 1 RD the florida panthers have. There's your team to sell too.

Wow, what genius thinking. First off, you have no clue if Florida would have any interest in Dougie. You have no clue if Dougie would allow himself to be dealt to Florida. They currently have their 1sts tied up in conditions in 25 and 26 so who knows which they’ll own. You have no idea if they’ll be dealt for help at the deadline or another player in the offseason.

So congrats on finding a single team. That’s not leverage to get a 1st if there are no other suitors. Remember that time a couple years ago when Dougie could be had for nothing but money and we were the only team that made a competitive offer? I’m the fool, though. Arrogance and ignorance is an ugly combo.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Wow, what genius thinking. First off, you have no clue if Florida would have any interest in Dougie. You have no clue if Dougie would allow himself to be dealt to Florida. They currently have their 1sts tied up in conditions in 25 and 26 so who knows which they’ll own. You have no idea if they’ll be dealt for help at the deadline or another player in the offseason.

So congrats on finding a single team. That’s not leverage to get a 1st if there are no other suitors. Remember that time a couple years ago when Dougie could be had for nothing but money and we were the only team that made a competitive offer? I’m the fool, though. Arrogance and ignorance is an ugly combo.

"Hubris" is the word you are looking for.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

You're not just getting rid of Dougie to get rid of him, you're getting rid him because you have a glut at RHD and could use his money better elsewhere lmao

 

[Maine Fan]

Excellent post, Happy Holidays to you as well, hope you're doing well.

Thank you for wishing me well. I am doing OK. I get out. Life could be worse like some people, I wish them well. Healthy Holiday to you and yours.

 

[Maine Fan]

Bone Density, very interesting name. Why did you chose it? Happy & Healthy Holidays

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

Ok, who gave @dgibb10 a second cup of coffee?

They never have a second cup at home.

 

[RANDOMH3RO]

I’m a big Hamilton fan, and would hate to see him go. I think he’s always been underrated, even by our own fan base after watching him have some incredible seasons. If he’s moved this off season, it’ll be one of those deals that hurt for the first season but we will be laughing about it the following seasons, especially if Luke is signed for less than 9. I think Luke is capable of picking up the slack, and Nemec or Casey need a path to a roster spot.

I’m not even going to mention kova yet. He’s 33 games into his career with the devils, not even worth considering making additional moves to fit him in yet. Lot of hockey left in this season, the outlook could look very different by the time the off season starts. What if the devils make the playoffs and have a deep run and Hamilton has 15 points in 20 games? Is everyone eager to jettison him off the team still or do we wait another year?