Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[Better Call Sal]

This fact causes me concern. He was and will still be the best center the Comets can ice.
Other NHL teams may have seen his competence on the 4th line and take their chance on him. If not Utica will breathe a sigh of relief and welcome him back.
If he clears tomorrow at noon, it may be way too much to ask to see him in Cleveland for games Wednesday and Thursday. Losses there would put the Comets right back where they started as a 5-game losing streak would erase the 5 game winning streak they compiled after their 1st win of the season.

Ah, I don’t think it’d be too much to ask for him to jump in if he clears waivers. Here’s hoping he does. He really showed he can do the job as a 4C.

 

[OldCraig71]

Habs fan just dropping by to ask about Kovacevic. He played bottom-pairing minutes for us but was a steady defenseman and should still be in Montreal but I think that Hughes either underestimated what he had in this player or overestimated the abilities of the players looking to take his place.

 

[Smitty426]

It's a smart real life proposition as well if the right deal is there for Nemec.



That top unit last year wasn't as good as this year but I think no Noesen's a bigger factor for that than Dougie being on it over Luke.

also the guy running the PP has somethin to do with it

 

[Devils731]

Just stop. He is the 13th worst D in the league for xGA / 60.

You are ignoring the fact that Dougie plays a significant amount of his time with offensive zone starts or on the PP, and ignoring that he is one of the worst D in the league when not in those situations.

We are talking zone starts to try and tear down Dougie? This discourse is getting crazy.

At 5 on 5 Hamilton has:

77 offensive zone starts
86 neutral zone starts
57 defensive zone starts
457 on the fly starts

So 11% of his shift starts are offensive and 8% are defensive.

That’s not causing a big weight onto any of his numbers in either direction.

 

[dgibb10]

You just threw out that he had a xGF / 60 of 0.51 (Quinn is 0.95 by the way) and when I point out that he is 13th worst in the league for xGA / 60, you dismiss it after bringing up the xGF / 60.

It's becoming apparent you don't know what you're talking about.

Not one of the things you said in this is true.

"You just threw out that he had a xGF / 60 of 0.51"

No, this was xgoal differential, which includes both xGF, and xGA. in fact the math for it is 60(xGF-xGA)/(TOI)

"Quinn is 0.95 by the way": Nope (3rd column from right)

"he is 13th worst in the league for xGA / 60" If this was in any way true it would have some weight.

(For context ahead, Seamus and Nemec had xGA/60 of 3.51 and 3.4 respectively)

Dougie Hamilton has an xGA/60 of 2.66. 49 dmen with at least 300 minutes this year have worse, including but not limited to:

Jaccob Slavin
Zach Werenski
Miro Heiskanen
Roman Josi
Rasmus Andersson
Noah Hanifin
Alex Pietrangelo

 

[Incharge1976]

We are talking zone starts to try and tear down Dougie? This discourse is getting crazy.

At 5 on 5 Hamilton has:

77 offensive zone starts
86 neutral zone starts
57 defensive zone starts
457 on the fly starts

So 11% of his shift starts are offensive and 8% are defensive.

That’s not causing a big weight onto any of his numbers in either direction.

Who is tearing down Dougie? The discussion is whether a player is worth $9,000,000 on our cap just to score 10 to 15 more goals on the PP while sacrificing in other areas.

 

[Smitty426]

I adore Dougie but you're out of your mind if you keep a PP specialist at 9M and getting worse 5v5 when this team can use that money elsewhere and once again, the powerplay sucked ass last year because Jack Hughes had no shoulder, it was NOT because we missed Hamliton

it was all of these things combined. Losing Dougies 60 pts last year absolutely was a part to our meh season. Jack as well. Th ePP coach being bleech. Luke will QB it but not any time this year and depending on how he ends this season next is a question mark for me. Sure, move Dougie when it's all ready for the transfer of power, it's not now.

 

[dgibb10]

Who is tearing down Dougie? The discussion is whether a player is worth $9,000,000 on our cap just to score 10 to 15 more goals on the PP while sacrificing in other areas.

"whether a player is worth $9,000,000 on our cap just to score 10 to 15 more goals on the PP"

Yes, the answer here is yes. 10-15 extra goals a year is a massive boost.

And that pretends that dougie isn't good 5v5, which he is.

 

[Devils731]

Who is tearing down Dougie? The discussion is whether a player is worth $9,000,000 on our cap just to score 10 to 15 more goals on the PP while sacrificing in other areas.

The word “just” implies Hamilton brings nothing but PP goals when has has this season and a career of tilting the ice in favor of his team when he is on the ice at even strength.

I think some people want to trade Hamilton because of the team’s cap makeup, which I actually agree with.

I disagree that to prove this concept, that it’s reasonable to look at Hamilton in a way that doesn’t fairly represent his play when he is put forward as a PP only defenseman.

 

[dgibb10]

The word “just” implies Hamilton brings nothing but PP goals when has has this season and a career of tilting the ice in favor of his team when he is on the ice at even strength.

I think some people want to trade Hamilton because of the team’s cap makeup, which I actually agree with.

I disagree that to prove this concept, that it’s reasonable to look at Hamilton in a way that doesn’t fairly represent his play when he is put forward as a PP only defenseman.

100% agree.

We can move Hamilton to try and help us in the long run. But people pretending it isn't going to make us a worse team next year are crazy.

I imagine it's partly because of how good last years RD UFA class was. Pesce, Montour, Roy, Tanev, Walker. Classes like that don't come along often.

I don't know how they make the argument that both:

-our forward core isn't good enough
-54.5% from dougie with that forward core isn't good enough.

This is an elite dman we are talking about, and he's been that way for years.

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

 

[Devils731]

I don't know how they make the argument that both:

-our forward core isn't good enough
-54.5% from dougie with that forward core isn't good enough.

I think the argument should really be that the marginal loss between Hamilton and hopefully Nemec or Casey is much smaller than the marginal gain between the teams 12th forward and whatever forward the Devils acquire with the new cap space and assets; maybe it’s the 11th and 12th and 2 new forwards.

I think it’s pretty possible that the net difference in those swaps leaves the Devils with a positive change in team talent and performance.

This is only true because Hamilton is paid very well and hopefully one of Casey or Nemec are better than average NHL players next year. It’s not because Hamilton isn’t a productive player who is good at even strength and sublime on the PP.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

100% agree.

We can move Hamilton to try and help us in the long run. But people pretending it isn't going to make us a worse team next year are crazy.

I don't know how they make the argument that both:

-our forward core isn't good enough
-54.5% from dougie with that forward core isn't good enough.

This is an elite dman we are talking about, and he's been that way for years.

The assumption is Fitz uses his 9M elsewhere, they're just not getting rid of Dougie for the sake of getting rid of him lmao. If they get better on the forward side with a legit winger for Bratt/Jack then you can ask your dmen to do less from the back end offensively. Luke is still gonna get better (scary thought for the rest of the league) offensively, one of Casey or Nemec will be a regular who can help that side of the puck as well, Kovacevic has been amazing in his results this year and probably the best defensive dmen in the league this year and would be re-signed. A right side of Kovacevic-Pesce-Nemec or Casey is beyond fine.

 

[dgibb10]

I think the argument should really be that the marginal loss between Hamilton and hopefully Nemec or Casey is much smaller than the marginal gain between the teams 12th forward and whatever forward the Devils acquire with the new cap space and assets; maybe it’s the 11th and 12th and 2 new forwards.

I think it’s pretty possible that the net difference in those swaps leaves the Devils with a positive change in team talent and performance.

This is only true because Hamilton is paid very well and hopefully one of Casey or Nemec are better than average NHL players next year. It’s not because Hamilton isn’t a productive player who is good at even strength and sublime on the PP.

In my mind its Grits is the argument. I don't think he really has a great fit if he's not in the top 6, and dougie money out means a top 6 forward in (which I'm wary of since I don't think the 3rd piece moves the needle much either way for Jack-Bratt or Nico-Meier 5v5, or helps our special teams)

Grits vs guy you bring in
Casey/Nemec vs Hamilton.

 

[Incharge1976]

The word “just” implies Hamilton brings nothing but PP goals when has has this season and a career of tilting the ice in favor of his team when he is on the ice at even strength.

I think some people want to trade Hamilton because of the team’s cap makeup, which I actually agree with.

I disagree that to prove this concept, that it’s reasonable to look at Hamilton in a way that doesn’t fairly represent his play when he is put forward as a PP only defenseman.

You missed my the point. First, when bringing in the PP, he has double the O-zone starts. I'm not even complaining about that at all. I EXPECT it given his game and I want the team to maximize it.

But none of the above takes away from the fact that he makes most of his hay on the PP (xGF / 60) and he is 13th worst in the league in every other situation while being sheltered. 2 years ago when he was 0.06 you could live with it given his production, but $9M is not worth 10 to 15 goals on the PP while having one of the worst D in the league when not in that situation.

That's not a knock on him. He is slowing down. Doesn't mean the team needs to keep him around for a few more goals on the PP or out of some loyalty or whatever. You move on from people before they completely break down, especially when that player is making $9M and you have needs in other areas.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

"whether a player is worth $9,000,000 on our cap just to score 10 to 15 more goals on the PP"

Yes, the answer here is yes. 10-15 extra goals a year is a massive boost.

And that pretends that dougie isn't good 5v5, which he is.

What if they get a winger who scores 20-25 next to Bratt/Jack at even strength + re-signing Kovacevic as the money usage for Hamilton? In what world is that not better use of the Hamliton money than Hamliton himself?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

You missed my the point. First, when bringing in the PP, he has double the O-zone starts. I'm not even complaining about that at all. I EXPECT it given his game and I want the team to maximize it.

But none of the above takes away from the fact that he makes most of his hay on the PP (xGF / 60) and he is 13th worst in the league in every other situation while being sheltered. 2 years ago when he was 0.06 you could live with it given his production, but $9M is not worth 10 to 15 goals on the PP while having one of the worst D in the league when not in that situation.

That's not a knock on him. He is slowing down. Doesn't mean the team needs to keep him around for a few more goals on the PP or out of some loyalty or whatever. You move on from people before they completely break down, especially when that player is making $9M and you have needs in other areas.

Always move on from a player one year too early than one year too late

 

[NJDevs26]

Always move on from a player one year too early than one year too late

Except that people only want to move him because of the cap (and the whole 'blocking RD from re-signing Kovacevic and handing Nemec a spot when Nemec's been rubbish this year' meme)...and the cap is treated as too much of a bogeyman here at times.

 

[Incharge1976]

Except that people only want to move him because of the cap...and the cap is treated as too much of a bogeyman here at times.

We need help at F, so naturally the movement needs to come from D or any move you make would be lateral, especially if that D makes $9. We aren't even having this conversation if he made $5M but he doesn't.

 

[MasterofGrond]

Always move on from a player one year too early than one year too late

What about moving on from a guy at the right time?

 

[NJDevs26]

We need help at F, so naturally the movement needs to come from D or any move you make would be lateral, especially if that D makes $9. We aren't even having this conversation if he made $5M but he doesn't.

How many star forwards do we need? We have four more or less, no team has six stars on their top two lines.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Except that people only want to move him because of the cap (and the whole 'blocking RD from re-signing Kovacevic and handing Nemec a spot when Nemec's been rubbish this year' meme)...and the cap is treated as too much of a bogeyman here at times.

I don't think Nemec should be handed a spot, Casey is arguably ahead of him imo. But one of them will hit, the question is just who. Moving on from Dougie is just the smart move, I love him as a player and love him for the being the first guy in the league to say he wanted to be a part of the core in NJ but sensical teams would all move on from Hamliton at this point.

 

[MasterofGrond]

Also, the team doesn't even need help at F! They're the 6th best team at 5 on 5 offensively!

Yeah, I'd like to score more, that's always better, but the idea that we're floundering over her on offense has kinda taken on a life of its own. Not warranted!

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

How many star forwards do we need? We have four more or less, no team has six stars on their top two lines.

We have a gaping hole next to Jack/Bratt, I don't want them to be prime Sid and wait a decade before drafting a Jake Guentzel type. Gritsyuk will most likely be good but there's no assurances of that, same with Lenni who actually profiles as a Palat esque player anyway.

 

[dgibb10]

The assumption is Fitz uses his 9M elsewhere, they're just not getting rid of Dougie for the sake of getting rid of him lmao. If they get better on the forward side with a legit winger for Bratt/Jack then you can ask your dmen to do less from the back end offensively. Luke is still gonna get better (scary thought for the rest of the league), one of Casey or Nemec will be a regular, Kovacevic has been amazing in his results this year and probably the best defensive dmen in the league this year.

"If they get better on the forward side with a legit winger for Bratt/Jack then you can ask your dmen to do less from the back end offensively"

I do not believe this is a good idea.

Toffoli, Meier, Haula, Palat, Cotter, Mercer, Yegor, Tatar, even Hischier.

So many different combinations of guys across various talent levels and archetypes have been tried alongside the Bratt-Hughes duo.

It really hasn't had any meaningful impact on their production or level of. And tbh, Jack Bratt Palat have had a 58% expected goals share together in their 3 years, and outscored the opposition 24-14. How much better do you want? How much better do you expect them to get with a 3rd guy, and who is this guy?

You know who has had a big impact on how many pucks they put home? DOUGIE

The devils score an utterly ridiculous (over the last 3 years) 4.5 goals/60 5v5 with Jack Bratt and Dougie on the ice.
With just Jack and Bratt, that number drops to 2.81.