Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

[Goptor]

OR.

And I know this may sound crazy.

But hear me out.

What if we use the power play that was top 3 in the league last year.

Thats what i'm suggesting we do. Bratt and Jack were the puck carriers and Hamilton was the shooting threat.

 

[fire Fitzgerald]

Meier had a bigger impact shift after shift in my eyes. He pushed play more which is why I put him up a tier. Both were good, no worries

He literally single-handedly ruined game #2.
A bunch of blown chances and the cherry on the cake was a power play goal. An $8.8 million move.

The guy is almost complete trash and I don't understand how you manage to justify his measly 53 points per season.

 

[MadDevil]

Timo needs to produce more. I don't think anybody would disagree. Calling him "almost complete garbage" is just f***ing stupid.

 

[forceten]

We have so much roster construction to do and I can’t get past Fitzgerald’s Dumoulin trade. A 2nd and Traff? All those picks in the second and third round could have been packaged with better prospects (not sure if traff was one but he seemed better than Pikkarainen) for players. Instead we threw a second and a prospect for nothing … we were never going far this year. Even if we had to play Vilen it would have been more or less the same result. At least we could have leveraged the picks to move up if a player dropped or to make a trade for an RFA or whatever.

And I don’t even want to rant anymore about Bardakov who is going to play for Colorado next season, the perfect 4C for this team. Traded for a guy you could’ve gotten out of anywhere for what he does and brings

 

[Better Call Sal]

We have so much roster construction to do and I can’t get past Fitzgerald’s Dumoulin trade. A 2nd and Traff? All those picks in the second and third round could have been packaged with better prospects (not sure if traff was one but he seemed better than Pikkarainen) for players. Instead we threw a second and a prospect for nothing … we were never going far this year. Even if we had to play Vilen it would have been more or less the same result. At least we could have leveraged the picks to move up if a player dropped or to make a trade for an RFA or whatever.

And I don’t even want to rant anymore about Bardakov who is going to play for Colorado next season, the perfect 4C for this team. Traded for a guy you could’ve gotten out of anywhere for what he does and brings

I mean, look, I get it. Fitz overpaid for Dumoulin but that was pretty much the sticker price at the deadline.

I know it's easy for fans to say it's not worth it because you could clearly tell we weren't going on a long playoff run, but a GM is rarely ever going to act that way for his team and will usually try and bring reinforcements to give them a chance at a playoff run.

I know by wins and losses, sure, maybe the same result happens. But look at all the injuries we further suffered on the blueline in that series, and look at the massive load Dumoulin shouldered. Even if we went out in 5 games, I can't really imagine how our blueline would have held up without him in that final stretch.

 

[BurntToast]

It’s shocking how many people didn’t see the loss to Carolina coming.

To Fitz, Dumoulin was a necessary evil. To him and Keefe there are benefits to winning critical games down the stretch and making the playoffs.

The Devils lost the entire top 6 at various points. Maybe it’s time for a Dougie for Quinn Hughes swap to help Rutherford out.

 

[Billdo]

people are so scared of the back end on contracts i have zero concern for them. just move the player down the lineup i'm sure they will be serviceable in a lesser role even with the high cap hit. you are paying for the production now not 5 years from now its just a necessary evil

I like this mindset. -Ondrej Palat

 

[britdevil]

I don't think Meier is trash, but he has not been good enough since getting here.

I do think he has it in him to have an "elite" season for New Jersey, it just bloody better be next season. Given he'll be 29, if he doesn't prove he can be that player next year, you start to seriously worry about that contract....

 

[BahlDeep]

Timo needs to produce more. I don't think anybody would disagree. Calling him "almost complete garbage" is just f***ing stupid.

Of course, from an absolute stand point he's by no mean trash.

But relative to what he's getting paid, he's been a big disappointment. I don't care if he got hot for 2 months, 53 points and 26 goals is not it.

 

[glenwo2]

I don't think Meier is trash, but he has not been good enough since getting here.

I do think he has it in him to have an "elite" season for New Jersey, it just bloody better be next season. Given he'll be 29, if he doesn't prove he can be that player next year, you start to seriously worry about that contract....

He was signed to that contract in June of 2023.

It will be 2 years now going next month since the signing.

He makes far more than Bratt and has not really justified the contract (though, tbf, he has played well in spots; just not enough for what he's making).

I'd argue we need to worry about his contract right now actually (meaning that Fitz overpaid for him).

 

[Clam Jensen]

I know this might be controversial but maybe the biggest issue is Jack.

It’s obvious Bratt and J.Hughes have chemistry but outside of that Hughes struggles to elevate his line mates in a way a natural center would.

I would argue, moving Bratt around has yielded greater results.

That’s not to say Jack is bad. But he carries and shoots the puck a metric crap ton. I don’t think many expected him to be such a prolific scorer.

I don’t know if Bratt would achieve the same level of success away from J. Hughes, but we could see an increase in goals scored (from Bratt) and better results from players x-y-Bratt.

I am hoping that Gritz fits with J. Hughes or or Fitz can find at least someone to take pressure off Hughes. If you play Hughes with scrubs, he still produces but his turnovers increase.

Timo needs to be getting at least 30 goals to justify his contract. The Devils also need Mercer to be closer to 20.

It would also help if Dougie and L. Hughes weren’t the only defenseman to put up points. I am hoping we see playoff Pesce all season.

It’s been posted here a bunch but people who play with Jack have much better numbers with than without him.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

yeah, the "Jack doesn't elevate his linemates" stuff is super weird and also super untrue.

 

[JimEIV]

Why.

We had:

Elite PP (so clearly no other top forwarded needed there)
Elite PK (so keep those guys)

When Jack and Bratt played together they were +11 5v5 and +7 in expected goals.
When Timo and Nico played together they were +3 5v5 and +7 in expected goals.

The problem was NOT the minutes from our top 6 (overall NJD was +24 5v5 with any of the big 4 on the ice). The problem was being -27 5v5 without said

The cost to bring in 2 "legit top 6 guys" would be sky high. And for what? To be disappointed by december when shockingly their point totals all drop since they aren't on PP1s anymore?

Percentages and differentials do not address volume. In fact they do a great job of disguising the total.

We don't score enough goals....not only do we not score enough goals, it's often a struggle to get our first goal requiring many opportunities just to get on the board once...it seemed like every game we didn't score a goal until halfway through the 2nd period.

We had a pretty good goal differential this season at +20. That was good for 13th in the league. But that differential was being driven by having the 5th best Goals Against in the league....So 5th best Goals Against and 20th in Goals For. The problem with this team is clearly goals.

In our division we were 6th of 8 teams in Goals For. The top 3 in our Division in GF were Washington, Columbus and Carolina with 288, 273, and 266 respectively. We were at 242....24 goals behind 3rd place in our division. The Rangers missed the playoffs with 14 more goals than we had.

You're not making this up or making a difference with 3rd liners. It's just not going to happen. We need more consistent goal scorers and goal scores that don't need high volume shots to score like everyone else on the team needs....that description isn't 3rd liner. That's a primary goal scorer.

 

[NJDevs26]

You bring in top six forwards not to ‘improve Jack’s numbers’, you do it so Noesen and freaking Palat don’t play top six anymore, and so one guy getting hurt or disappearing doesn’t destroy you. Plus moving them down improves the depth scoring rather than having non NHL players in the back six.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Percentages and differentials do not address volume. In fact they do a great job of disguising the total.

We don't score enough goals....not only do we not score enough goals, it's often a struggle to get our first goal requiring many opportunities just to get on the board once...it seemed like every game we didn't score a goal until halfway through the 2nd period.

We had a pretty good goal differential this season at +20. That was good for 13th in the league. But that differential was being driven by having the 5th best Goals Against in the league....So 5th best Goals Against and 20th in Goals For. The problem with this team is clearly goals.

In our division we were 6th of 8 teams in Goals For. The top 3 in our Division in GF were Washington, Columbus and Carolina with 288, 273, and 266 respectively. We were at 242....24 goals behind 3rd place in our division.

You're not making this up or making a difference with 3rd liners. It's just not going to happen. We need more consistent goal scorers and goal scores that don't need high volume shots to score like everyone else on the team needs....that description isn't 3rd liner. That's a primary goal scorer.

Could be a 3rd liner. For example, Daniel Sprong was one of the most efficient scorers in the entire NHL before last season. He was top 20 in the NHL in 5 on 5 goals per 60 in the 3 years prior, tied exactly with Jack Hughes.

It’s actually very challenging to find a great goal scorer that isn’t terrible at most other things. Those guys are hard to come by and if you find one, you’re likely dedicating a massive chunk of cap to them.

 

[forceten]

I mean, look, I get it. Fitz overpaid for Dumoulin but that was pretty much the sticker price at the deadline.

I know it's easy for fans to say it's not worth it because you could clearly tell we weren't going on a long playoff run, but a GM is rarely ever going to act that way for his team and will usually try and bring reinforcements to give them a chance at a playoff run.

I know by wins and losses, sure, maybe the same result happens. But look at all the injuries we further suffered on the blueline in that series, and look at the massive load Dumoulin shouldered. Even if we went out in 5 games, I can't really imagine how our blueline would have held up without him in that final stretch.

I agree it was the sticker price at this deadline, but I'm still puzzled as to why he did it. Even with the injuries we ended up having - I'm still not okay with it.

At the end of the day this team was obviously flawed and needed to revamp no kidding half its forward roster. You throw away a 2nd round pick and a B prospect that could be used for a better, longer-term trade for a handful of games in a doomed season? It's just abysmal abysmal ABYSMAL asset management. We tossed away Misyul too - we'll see if the forward we got in return can actually play in the NHL. And Bardakov, who we could really use. All tossed so far for literally nothing when we have so many needs that even a B- asset could get a trade over the hump.

We are also contending with a slew of NMCs, NTCs, and M-NTCs on players that are not good or are not fitting us. Handcuffing us further.

I was a Fitz believer but I'm thinking we need someone else.

And the drafting has been horrid too. You can't hit on every pick and hindsight is unfair but there've been too many misses.

I don't think Meier is trash, but he has not been good enough since getting here.

I do think he has it in him to have an "elite" season for New Jersey, it just bloody better be next season. Given he'll be 29, if he doesn't prove he can be that player next year, you start to seriously worry about that contract....

I'm with you here. He's not a $8.8M player if he's only going to muster up 25 goals, 55 points give or take every year. That's what I want from Dawson Mercer at $4M (although he's failed to deliver that the past two years).

I think his issue is simply that he has low IQ. He rushes the shot. He's athletic and has athletic instincts but his mind is behind.

 

[Better Call Sal]

I agree it was the sticker price at this deadline, but I'm still puzzled as to why he did it. Even with the injuries we ended up having - I'm still not okay with it.

At the end of the day this team was obviously flawed and needed to revamp no kidding half its forward roster. You throw away a 2nd round pick and a B prospect that could be used for a better, longer-term trade for a handful of games in a doomed season? It's just abysmal abysmal ABYSMAL asset management. We tossed away Misyul too - we'll see if the forward we got in return can actually play in the NHL. And Bardakov, who we could really use. All tossed so far for literally nothing when we have so many needs that even a B- asset could get a trade over the hump.

We are also contending with a slew of NMCs, NTCs, and M-NTCs on players that are not good or are not fitting us. Handcuffing us further.

I was a Fitz believer but I'm thinking we need someone else.

And the drafting has been horrid too. You can't hit on every pick and hindsight is unfair but there've been too many misses.



I'm with you here. He's not a $8.8M player if he's only going to muster up 25 goals, 55 points give or take every year. That's what I want from Dawson Mercer at $4M (although he's failed to deliver that the past two years).

I think his issue is simply that he has low IQ. He rushes the shot. He's athletic and has athletic instincts but his mind is behind.

I'm mostly with you on Fitz. I do think he has leaned too hard into the adjustments he's made to the roster year-over-year, but I think he has an understanding on identifying the flaws in the NHL roster and has been shrewd at times in the moves he's made to correct them. The moves the past two years have been less shrewd, but understandable in my estimation. I think the moves in goal and on the blueline were absolutely necessary. He unfortunately didn't pull off any big scoring adds last summer. We know he was in on Marchessault until the last minute, I'm not sure how that would've looked long term but he certainly would have been a boost to our scoring depth woes.

You're 100% spot on with the recent draft record. It doesn't appear promising in a lot of respects, and I found it rather odd that they flipped two players they just drafted in deadline deals, Traff for Dumoulin and Graham for Glass.

 

[NJDevs26]

I agree it was the sticker price at this deadline, but I'm still puzzled as to why he did it. Even with the injuries we ended up having - I'm still not okay with it.

At the end of the day this team was obviously flawed and needed to revamp no kidding half its forward roster. You throw away a 2nd round pick and a B prospect that could be used for a better, longer-term trade for a handful of games in a doomed season? It's just abysmal abysmal ABYSMAL asset management. We tossed away Misyul too - we'll see if the forward we got in return can actually play in the NHL. And Bardakov, who we could really use. All tossed so far for literally nothing when we have so many needs that even a B- asset could get a trade over the hump.

We are also contending with a slew of NMCs, NTCs, and M-NTCs on players that are not good or are not fitting us. Handcuffing us further.

I was a Fitz believer but I'm thinking we need someone else.

And the drafting has been horrid too. You can't hit on every pick and hindsight is unfair but there've been too many misses.



I'm with you here. He's not a $8.8M player if he's only going to muster up 25 goals, 55 points give or take every year. That's what I want from Dawson Mercer at $4M (although he's failed to deliver that the past two years).

I think his issue is simply that he has low IQ. He rushes the shot. He's athletic and has athletic instincts but his mind is behind.

Because not making the playoffs would have been an unmitigated disaster and tbh with how key Dumoulin looked in the playoffs, they may well have actually blown a spot if they didn’t trade for him.

 

[JimEIV]

Could be a 3rd liner. For example, Daniel Sprong was one of the most efficient scorers in the entire NHL before last season. He was top 20 in the NHL in 5 on 5 goals per 60 in the 3 years prior, tied exactly with Jack Hughes.

It’s actually very challenging to find a great goal scorer that isn’t terrible at most other things. Those guys are hard to come by and if you find one, you’re likely dedicating a massive chunk of cap to them.

This kind of illustrates why a 3rd liner can't make a difference in my opinion. The best you can get out of that player we already had....

Sprong is RW with an 11.2 career shooting percentage. His best year was 21 goals with Seattle.

Dawson Mercer was mostly a RW for ~60 games with a career 14.1 shooting percentage and had his worst goal scoring year with 19 this year.

In my opinion that's topped out for a 3rd line...well, maybe not "topped out", there's probably a little more room depending on how defensive the role is...but you're not getting much more from any 3rd liner.

I don't believe you can get two better 3rd line wingers than what Cotter and Mercer provided this season. Now center is different story...but if you're getting 35 goals from your 3rd line LW and RW, how much more can you realistically expect to improve on that?

Now if we look at Palat as a #2 LW with 15 goals, I realistically expect that can drastically be improved upon.

 

[thebeernerd]

Meier isn't trash by any means but it's comical how awful his shooting luck his been for long stretches over the past two seasons. If he can shoot like he did for the end of the last two seasons, that's an easy 50+ goals.

I saw a graphic from JFresh showing the top 30 do-nothing players and the top 30 do-everything players, and Timo was somewhere on that latter list. Haula was in the middle of the former.

 

[devsfan8]

I still cannot figure out how any knowledgeable hockey fan would complain about trading for Brian Dumoulin if your a buying team. I don't care about a 2nd round pick! Most of the extra picks certain rounds are acquired to be used for trades anyway.

Especially considering that EVERY defenseman on the roster was injured to some extent this season. Some played through it. Some missed time.

In my opinion it's a PRIORITY, a necessity and a focus this offseason to lock up Dumo for that reason alone. With a straight face I'll say I don't care..if he is 50 gears old! If you are still effective in the league wgaf. He played 80 games last season. He blocks shots. Plays over 20 minutes a game (sometimes 30-35), is a rock solid dman in front of the crease and clears pucks out.

For Anaheim, or San Jose, Or Buffalo his value is low. For a playoff team he has value.

I don't see HOW you don't sign him.

 

[NjDevsRR]

how you manage to justify his measly 53 points per season.

Please show me where I justified his regular season. Go ahead, and point out where I ever said that. You replied to my post about a 5 game review of round one…



I swear. Some of you folks on here are absolutely unhinged and it puts your reading comprehension in the backseat.

 

[Triumph]

The draft record is the only thing that has me in favor of firing Fitzgerald. The problem is, that's the biggest lagging factor - by the time we know what the more promising bunch of these players are, it's too late.

 

[HellOnIce]

They gave up what they gave up for Dumo because of how he played with us. That mf'er deserves a statue for that performance. Make that deal everyday. Just wish we could off load Dillon to sign him.

 

[Triumph]

Please show me where I justified his regular season. Go ahead, and point out where I ever said that. You replied to my post about a 5 game review of round one…



I swear. Some of you folks on here are absolutely unhinged where reading comprehension takes a backseat to your rage.

No, the guy with the name fire fitzgerald is reasonable and surely puts on his monocle to make sure he reads every letter of your post.