Devils 2021 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XXII

[BurntToast]

Unfortunately COVID-19 robbed the fans and the organization of any real usable data for analyzing this team. Let’s say you don’t agree with the after effects of Covid-19, we should be able to agree that the schedule is BS. Hopefully, this wacky season is at least building up their stamina/confidence for next season, when they get to play outside the division.

 

[ninetyeight]

I'm surprisingly positive. I really believe that all of covid health effects, busy schedule, lack of training and missing Nico have all affected the team big time. Yet still the games are very close right now. The goals might have been called back, but we still scored them and Bastian's phantom penalty or Bratt's skate being less than half inch offside had no impact on those plays. We scored 4 on a great islanders team, who cares if we "only" got a point, we're out of playoffs anyway. The best scenario right now is to play good, score lots of goals, yet get as little points as possible.

 

[Auto Pilot]

This team is historically bad lol.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

I'm surprisingly positive. I really believe that all of covid health effects, busy schedule, lack of training and missing Nico have all affected the team big time. Yet still the games are very close right now. The goals might have been called back, but we still scored them and Bastian's phantom penalty or Bratt's skate being less than half inch offside had no impact on those plays. We scored 4 on a great islanders team, who cares if we "only" got a point, we're out of playoffs anyway. The best scenario right now is to play good, score lots of goals, yet get as little points as possible.

Agree. With respect to the condensed schedule and everyone having COVID I would point out how well Kouk has played since he was scratched for a couple of games and got some rest. Obviously he is one young, improving player but I really think a 4-5 day break would help the team. I noted in the GDT that our 5 leading goal scorers are 25, 23, 19, 22 and 22.

I am also surprised posters are concerned about the teams record when the GM made clear this was a "process" year prior to the season. I was on board with the strategy and think with hindsight it was correct. The Devils were not winning anything without Nico and it left spots open for players like Maltsev to show what they could do. The team did not have to sell tickets this year so there was no financial incentive to make any significant adds last off season.

Hopefully things will be back to normal next year with respect to allowing for a full house at the Rock. I think the team will make a significant veteran add this off season to help the team win and sell tickets next year and we should get another high pick to add for the future. All things considered I think this year is going well if you think long term. Obviously the whole team getting COVID was terrible.

 

[Auto Pilot]

Hischier is untouchable

Hes our captain and a future 1C you can win with. Hes proven enough. As much as Id never trade Jack, its far more reasonable

Jack is more untouchable than Hischier is.

 

[NJDevs26]

This post didn't age real well.

I said I would probably start Wedgwood yesterday if you actually read my post rather than looking for quick dunk moments, I just wasn’t convinced the staff would and I wouldn’t have kept starting him by rote if he had another bad game. He obviously did enough to get the next backup start or two at least, my point was that I don’t trust either of those guys enough to say they’re the clear #2 for the rest of the year and I don’t think the team does either.

I would keep doing exactly what the staff is doing when you have #2B backups, short leash until and if either get hot. I was pretty much the only one who said Wedge should get another shot when you all ceded the backup spot to Dell.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I’m no longer certain Bratt’s a cut above Zacha and Wood among the 2nd contract RFA guys on the team. All three are probably still on the team for their 3rd contracts but I don’t expect them to be true impact players, just hopefully useful role players. I’d be fine trading any of them in a hockey trade depending on the return.

Johnsson needs to get away from Hughes, and possibly off the team. They might want to waive him honestly.

Based on 19 games? Remember when Pavel Zacha went 31 games without recording a single assist in his age 21 season?

I know he’s getting points now so he’s good but he still has the second lowest xGF% on the team among forwards only trailed by Gusev.

 

[MauDevils]

Guy producing = Bad
Guy not producing = Good

Advanced stats are a hell of a drug.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Guy producing = Bad
Guy not producing = Good

Advanced stats are a hell of a drug.

Or maybe you could attempt to use your head just a little and see that in small samples the guy that has seen the puck go in the net more frequently isn’t necessarily the better player.

These posts will be funny to revisit in a year. They may even be funny by the end of this season.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

is Bratt really not producing?

Zacha is at 0.68 ppg, Bratt is at 0.53 ppg this year (should have had another assist on the OT goal last night)

so the difference between "producing" and "not producing" is 0.15 ppg? That is 12 points over a full 82 game season

 

[Derps]

Guy producing = Bad
Guy not producing = Good

Advanced stats are a hell of a drug.

I truly believe some people would prefer to win the xGF battle lol.

I think we can make some pretty lukewarm assessments based on those kinda stats -- like maybe Zacha won't keep up quite this pace, but way too many people around here just don't understand math and models enough to be able to put forward decent conclusions based on those stats.

 

[Derps]

is Bratt really not producing?

Zacha is at 0.68 ppg, Bratt is at 0.53 ppg this year (should have had another assist on the OT goal last night)

so the difference between "producing" and "not producing" is 0.15 ppg? That is 12 points over a full 82 game season

Maybe not for one season, but Id say there's a pretty big difference between a winger scoring 56 points/yr and 43 points/yr.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Based on 19 games? Remember when Pavel Zacha went 31 games without recording a single assist in his age 21 season?

I know he’s getting points now so he’s good but he still has the second lowest xGF% on the team among forwards only trailed by Gusev.

I think Bratt's better than Zacha, but i'm not certain he is any more, and there's parts of Bratt's game that seem like they may never be fixed (weak on the boards, easily pushed to the perimeter). Both are probably "better" than Wood, but Wood has rare skills that you can't pick up in FA. That might make him more valuable than Zacha at least who if he can't play C then becomes a decent middle 6 winger and those are always available in FA. All three are going to be useful players I think for NJ the next 4 years, which is more than I can say for pretty much all the vets and half the guys on ELCs right now.

Again Bratt's 22 and shooting 2% so he's gonna start putting up goals, but I'm also disappointed by what I see on the ice this year (yes in 19 games).

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Maybe not for one season, but Id say there's a pretty big difference between a winger scoring 56 points/yr and 43 points/yr.

Do we think that maybe the reason that Zacha is outscoring Bratt is because he has gotten consistent PP time and Bratt has not? Zacha has played 58:02 on the PP and Bratt has played 33:19 on the PP this year.

at 5on5, Zacha is at 1.8 points/60 and Bratt is at 1.73 points/60.

 

[Derps]

Do we think that maybe the reason that Zacha is outscoring Bratt is because he has gotten consistent PP time and Bratt has not? Zacha has played 58:02 on the PP and Bratt has played 33:19 on the PP this year.

at 5on5, Zacha is at 1.8 points/60 and Bratt is at 1.73 points/60.

Maybe, but I would probably lean no just given how little Bratt has influenced his PP unit in his time out there.

I agree with your general point about sample size, anyway. Even with Zacha looking like an entirely different player than the last couple years, I'm not willing to really call either of them "good." Or 50+ point wingers. Neither of them have come close to it yet. I like what I see out of Zacha more than Bratt on most occasions, but the occasional moments Bratt goes supersaiyan and dances through everyone keeps me at the table like a bad gambler

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I truly believe some people would prefer to win the xGF battle lol.

I think we can make some pretty lukewarm assessments based on those kinda stats -- like maybe Zacha won't keep up quite this pace, but way too many people around here just don't understand math and models enough to be able to put forward decent conclusions based on those stats.

The Devils are getting outscored nearly 2 x 1 with Zacha on the ice at even strength. That is an extremely limited way to look at a player. If only there were stats that took way more factors into account.

I wonder if the fact that they’re getting 38% of the high danger chances when he’s on the ice is a factor? These stats aren’t very advanced to be honest, you don’t need to know calculus to interpret them.

 

[Triumph]

Zacha's xGF is so low in part because he was used as a center primarily this season. What we're learning is that he just is not a center.

It's not just that Zacha is getting some 'bounces' as it were, though that is true, but he is playing a full-speed game. He's figuring out what he is capable of doing against NHL defenders in a way that he hasn't in previous years.

 

[Derps]

The Devils are getting outscored nearly 2 x 1 with Zacha on the ice at even strength. That is an extremely limited way to look at a player. If only there were stats that took way more factors into account.

I wonder if the fact that they’re getting 38% of the high danger chances when he’s on the ice is a factor? These stats aren’t very advanced to be honest, you don’t need to know calculus to interpret them.

You do need to know what exactly goes into determining what makes a high danger chance in the model, if the information in that model is correct, and if that captures accurately what makes a high danger chance. That doesn't even get into what kind of differences there are between two players doing the exact same thing. There is so much going on around an isolated play and I don't think many of these models do a great job in illustrating all of them. They simply don't have the resources to do that.

It's the same thing with xGF and the like that people throw around like it's the be all end all in a discussion. xGF is an incredibly advanced stat. Each model varies considerably and uses quite a bit of advanced statistics in it. I think it behooves everyone to take 15 minutes and look at what someone is putting in their model that spits out this number they are posting everywhere. It matters, especially when it's being used to split as much hairs as it is.

So, no, you don't need to know Calculus. But you do need to know Statistics. And you do need to temper your conclusions. Not even the guys that make these models would make some of the outrageously concrete claims I see on here from time to time.

 

[LeedsMonster]

is Bratt really not producing?

Zacha is at 0.68 ppg, Bratt is at 0.53 ppg this year (should have had another assist on the OT goal last night)

so the difference between "producing" and "not producing" is 0.15 ppg? That is 12 points over a full 82 game season

I'd be interested to see primary assist numbers for Bratt and Zacha. Anyone recommendations for a good site to find those numbers?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I'd be interested to see primary assist numbers for Bratt and Zacha. Anyone recommendations for a good site to find those numbers?

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[LeedsMonster]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Thanks

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Janne Kuokkanen is now at 2.57 points/60 at 5 on 5 this season

That is good for 28th in the entire NHL among forwards. Better than Barzal, Backstrom, Pettersson, Rantanen, Barkov, etc

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

You do need to know what exactly goes into determining what makes a high danger chance in the model, if the information in that model is correct, and if that captures accurately what makes a high danger chance. That doesn't even get into what kind of differences there are between two players doing the exact same thing. There is so much going on around an isolated play and I don't think many of these models do a great job in illustrating all of them. They simply don't have the resources to do that. It's the same thing with xGF and the like that people throw around like it's the be all end all in an discussion.

So, no, you don't need to know Calculus. But you do need to know Statistics. And you do need to temper your conclusions. Not even the guys that make these models would make some of the outrageously concrete claims I see on here from time to time.

I don’t need any stats to see that Bratt is a more talented and valuable player. Knowing Statistics would help you understand that 19 games in a sport like hockey can get you some strange results by pure randomness. But the people that hate advanced stats the most don’t seem to like the idea of luck or randomness for some odd reason.

 

[Derps]

I don’t need any stats to see that Bratt is a more talented and valuable player. Knowing Statistics would help you understand that 19 games in a sport like hockey can get you some strange results by pure randomness. But the people that hate advanced stats the most don’t seem to like the idea of luck or randomness for some odd reason.

Yeah and if you scroll up like 10 posts you'll see I pretty much had a whole post about how 19 games dont really tell you enough to make any large conclusions about Zacha or Bratt.

I don't hate advanced stats. I like math quite a bit. Just hate its daily bastardization on this forum.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

again Bratt is shooting at like 2% this year which is obviously not sustainable

Coming into this season, his career shooting % was 12.7%. If he were shooting at his career norm, he would have 5-6 goals this year to go along with his 9 assists.

15-16 points in 19 games looks a lot better than 10. Especially on a team who is this anemic offensively.