Devils 2021-22 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XII

[devilsblood]

We have to look further then our nose when analyzing the Severson situation. If we do lock up Graves and Siegenthaler, that means we’ll have Graves, Hamilton, Siegenthaler and Smith, which leaves 2 spots for up and coming kids (Hughes, Shak, Bahl, etc) and possibly a defensive veteran. Adding Severson either removes the option of adding that defensive veteran or will block on of our kids who kind of play the same game Severson does.

I also agree that having 3 RHD and 3 LHD is ideal but it isn’t a must. You see plenty of teams around the league that don’t have that balance and make it work just fine, hence why I can see a Siegenthaler-Smith pairing on our 3rd unit and eventually have Hughes and that more defensive minded dman as our 2nd pair.

Shak and Hughes though are likely a couple years off, and perhaps further from either being top 4 worthy. Especially if we hope to be a playoff team in the next 2-3 years.

Smith? I'm not trading a solid vet rhd because we have a struggling kid at lhd.

With all 3 of these young guys being lefties, they just don't factor too much into how I see Sev's. But the lack of righties does.

Now as is often the case it's all about price tag. As long as Sev's contract makes sense, then we sign him. I agree if he wants Hamilton type money, or something close to that, then we don't.

 

[Buck Dancer]

Taylor Hall got traded off the Oilers having never made the playoffs in his 6 seasons there and by Shero's account, he still wished he was there for their success. So again, you don't know what you're talking about - there's reasons why people stay places you would think they would leave, and there's reasons why people leave places you think they would stay, and it isn't always money, and it isn't always opportunity. Do I think it's likely Severson will take some sort of discount? Yes, if the Devils make him a long-term offer this summer and he's interested in that. I'm not sure the Devils would do that and I'm not sure Damon would want that.



There's not very many and there's no guarantees the Devils would retain salary. They should, it doesn't mean they will. Tampa is running out of assets they can afford to trade and I don't really want any of the Katchouk/Colton/Joseph/Raddysh set - these players are too old and it's very hard to sort out which of them will actually be top 9 players long-term, and Tampa probably needs these guys regardless. I can list off all the other playoff teams that clearly have 0 interest in such a deal, but why bother. Teams do not like trading 1st round picks + major young assets, they typically only do this if they're sure about the player, and Damon Severson does not offer that assurance. He's not going to be your PP1 guy. He's not going to be your PK1 guy. Klingberg is also on the market.



The point is that Ty Smith's best results in the NHL came with Damon Severson. I don't think he is the 'main reason' either.

We got Taylor Hall for a steal and when you’re rebuilding your roster from scratch, you try and hold on to a guy like that, so that example is horrible, sorry. As for Severson possibly throwing away a winning lottery ticket to stay on a team that hasn’t won anything since he’s been around and landed a better player to anchor our top pairing for the next 7 years, those aren’t exactly reasons that would entice him in doing so, but hey what do I know, right… you seem to have a better grasp on the situation lol

The guy should absolutely be trade bait around the deadline and we’d get a better return now then we would next year. The fact that he’s a right hand shot, has a very reasonable deal for another year and can even be cheaper then that if we retain some cash to get a wider range of teams who are cap strapped in the mix, is definitely the move Fitz should do in the next couple of weeks.

You don’t like it as a fan and that’s ok but long term, for the good of the team, it’s the move we need to make.

 

[Buck Dancer]

Shak and Hughes though are likely a couple years off, and perhaps further from either being top 4 worthy. Especially if we hope to be a playoff team in the next 2-3 years.

Smith? I'm not trading a solid vet rhd because we have a struggling kid at lhd.

With all 3 of these young guys being lefties, they just don't factor too much into how I see Sev's. But the lack of righties does.

Now as is often the case it's all about price tag. As long as Sev's contract makes sense, then we sign him. I agree if he wants Hamilton type money, or something close to that, then we don't.

Screwing up our cap because we want to have 3 LHD and 3 RHD is a move I don’t want to see. Damon Severson is not that good to jeopardize our cap and like @Guadana stated, we can’t have 5 or 6 players making more then 6M$ and if Severson is part of that select club, I think we’d be asking for trouble.

He can most definitely get over 6M$ on the open market and if he wants to stay for something like 5.25M$, whatever, but I just don’t see it happening and I can guarantee you that his agent will be telling him the same thing.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Wanting a guy to stay if he takes 5.25 million but acting like he would cripple the team at 6.25 doesn’t add up.

 

[Triumph]

We got Taylor Hall for a steal and when you’re rebuilding your roster from scratch, you try and hold on to a guy like that, so that example is horrible, sorry.

You did not understand my point even a little bit. My point in bringing up Hall is that while he had 0 success in Edmonton, the claim from Shero was that in April 2017 he was unhappy in New Jersey and wanted to be back in Edmonton, even though he didn't win squat there - he was traded just as it looked like the team was getting good. The Devils are getting better, Hughes is looking like the star he was drafted to be, everything other than the goaltending is coming around in the last month.

As for Severson possibly throwing away a winning lottery ticket to stay on a team that hasn’t won anything since he’s been around and landed a better player to anchor our top pairing for the next 7 years, those aren’t exactly reasons that would entice him in doing so, but hey what do I know, right… you seem to have a better grasp on the situation lol

Severson would not be a top pairing defenseman on any current playoff team except perhaps Tampa, who is entirely capped out.

The guy should absolutely be trade bait around the deadline and we’d get a better return now then we would next year.

You have no basis for saying this. Ordinarily this is true, but Severson doesn't tick a lot of the boxes a player should when this sort of deal is made. The Rangers traded for Keith Yandle when he was a year+ away from UFA, they dealt Duclair who was a promising prospect, a 1st, and a 2nd for Yandle and a 4th, but Yandle was a PP1 guy.

The fact that he’s a right hand shot, has a very reasonable deal for another year and can even be cheaper then that if we retain some cash to get a wider range of teams who are cap strapped in the mix, is definitely the move Fitz should do in the next couple of weeks.

The fact that he is a right handed shot does not increase his value significantly because teams already have guys in those spots. There is another RHD on the market who has a better track record, is signed for less money, and can walk at season's end. In addition, the top 8 is basically locked in the East, so it's just about loading up for the playoffs.

You don’t like it as a fan and that’s ok but long term, for the good of the team, it’s the move we need to make.

This is extremely condescending and almost none of what I've said sounds like a fan's assessment of Severson. Severson is a very odd player who has offensive ability but cannot play PP1, has defensive ability but isn't an ace penalty killer, and while he seems all around good he's yet to have the kind of season where his results on the ice match that - he's yet to have a 5v5 breakeven season. I don't really know his value around the league and I think some teams who think more traditionally would not be paying a lot for Severson because he has 4 career playoff games and he's 27.

 

[devilsblood]

Wanting a guy to stay if he takes 5.25 million but acting like he would cripple the team at 6.25 doesn’t add up.

I don't disagree, but:

1)Where does that end. If 6.25, then why not 7.25? And if 7.25, then why not 8.25? Somewhere has to be a limit

2)I think paying one guy a million more then you like is ok, but you can't do that with every player. Have to decide which guys you are willing to do that with, and in this case, is Sev's in that category?

Now I think Sev's is a guy the Dev's should look to keep. He's a solid player, at a position that organizationally we are very slim at, and we've finally built a d corp that looks solid. I would hate to lose one of the key pieces so close to the team looking to contend. But again, there has to be a limit.

 

[glenwo2]

Damn...Just checked the schedule.

Not playing until Thursday?

Oh well...at least it's against the Coyotes.

 

[NJDevs26]

I don't disagree, but:

1)Where does that end. If 6.25, then why not 7.25? And if 7.25, then why not 8.25? Somewhere has to be a limit

2)I think paying one guy a million more then you like is ok, but you can't do that with every player. Have to decide which guys you are willing to do that with, and in this case, is Sev's in that category?

Now I think Sev's is a guy the Dev's should look to keep. He's a solid player, at a position that organizationally we are very slim at, and we've finally built a d corp that looks solid. I would hate to lose one of the key pieces so close to the team looking to contend. But again, there has to be a limit.

Yeah that's always been my issue with the whole 'but that's only 500k-1 million of a difference, who cares' argument, you could literally do that rationale ad infiniteum. Now for Dougie Hamilton sure but overpaying too many middle-pairing and middle six guys is how you get capped out without having a great team.

 

[Bleedred]

Damn...Just checked the schedule.

Not playing until Thursday?

Oh well...at least it's against the Coyotes.

It's actually Wednesday. but still too long.

Each season seems to just get weirder and weirder.

The 19-20 season was weird because of the shutdown, but it was everybody shutting down for months and a select few teams (like us) didn't get to comeback and get a shot at the playoffs.

The 20-21 season was weird because it didn't start until January and then we were shutdown for 2 weeks I think?

Now this season is the weirdest. It started out our normal, aside from the fact that it started just one week later than it normally would, but we were back to playing every team again and travelling everywhere and I don't think there was a single postponement in the first 5-6 weeks of the season.

Now, everything has come off the rails, you never know when a game is gonna be postponed. And now we're playing 1 game in like 11 days or something like that and it'll wind up being 2 games in 14 days? And we're not even like completely shut down like we were when we had two weeks of our games postponed last year or when the whole league paused in March of 2020. I remember we did go like 6 days without games early in the season for a couple of the years leading up to the covid seasons. And that wasn't even during the bye weeks that the league implemented. Even in October of 2019 I remember about 6-7 days in between games for one stretch.

This year is just the weirdest. I was bitching about it in my goals against thread. We're seeing 2, 3, sometimes even 4 or 5 games postponed on some nights and a lot of them are postponed a couple weeks in advance because Canadian teams don't wanna play their homes games in front of 250 fans or no fans at all. Here we are, it's 5:55 PM Eastern and there's no games at all tonight. The one game ended almost 1.5 hours ago. There was only one postponement tonight and there wasn't gonna be many games because I think there's 3 NFL playoff games today, if I'm not mistaken. I don't even do football, so I don't give a shit about it.

 

[Blender]

We'll have played 2 games in 2 weeks. That's ridiculous when we all know we're going to get hit with a compressed schedule later when they make these games up.

 

[NJDevs26]

We'll have played 2 games in 2 weeks. That's ridiculous when we all know we're going to get hit with a compressed schedule later when they make these games up.

How compressed will it really be though? They still have that three-week landing spot to put games without the Olympics though god only knows when they actually announce a schedule for games in February.

 

[MadDevil]

We'll have played 2 games in 2 weeks. That's ridiculous when we all know we're going to get hit with a compressed schedule later when they make these games up.

I hope Blackwood enjoys his rest before we run him into the ground again.

 

[Bleedred]

I've mentioned trying to explore goalies we could acquire this offseason. Like a younger guy that could challenge Blackwood and definitely overthrow Blackwood as the starter if he continues his play of these last two seasons into next year. Like this coming offseason's version of Nedeljkovic.

One goalie that crossed my mind was Samsonov from Washington, but he's a guy that over the last two years hasn't been much better, if any better than Blackwood at all, on both my eye test stats and his personal league save percentage. And he's even less proven than Blackwood is.

He was good in his rookie season, just like Blackwood was in his. And also just like Blackwood in his rookie season (which was technically his first rookie season) he didn't get to play as many games because Washington still had to placate Holtby and give him pity starts, despite the fact that he was clearly declining, was an upcoming UFA, wasn't outplaying Samsonov and they let him walk in UFA anyway. Blackwood had to do the same when we had to give pity starts to Cory Schneider at the end of the 19-20 season when the goalies were alternating every other game and nobody really played two games in a row over the last 6 weeks of the season or whatever it was.

The only difference in their first years in the league was that I don't think Samsonov got shuttled back and forth to the AHL and if he did it wasn't often.

Once we finally sent Schneider down to the AHL, we let Blackwood ''Take the ball'' and he did a good job. After Holtby was gone from Washington, Samsonov didn't even outplay another younger rookie goalie in Vitek Vanecek. So my conclusion is that Samsonov hasn't even had a season as good as Schneider's 19-20 season. He clearly didn't play enough or at least not a starters load in 19-20, which Blackwood could say the same about his own 18-19 season. And Samsonov has not been a very good goalie these last two years, just like Blackwood hasn't. So I think he focus should trying to find someone potentially better than Blackwood and not another Blackwood to see who can suck less.

 

[Bleedred]

How compressed will it really be though? They still have that three-week landing spot to put games without the Olympics though god only knows when they actually announce a schedule for games in February.

Last I heard though, teams are still gonna get a ''Bye week'' in there, which might only be 5-6 days.

I don't know if all teams will get the bye week at the same time (that's not how it worked in the 4 years that they were giving the bye), hopefully not. You know it's getting shut down for a few days at the all star break, which was always the plan even before the olympics got scrapped.

I wonder if we'll start to get some clarification in the next week or two at the most, with a February schedule filled with make up games and bye weeks.

 

[Triumph]

We'll have played 2 games in 2 weeks. That's ridiculous when we all know we're going to get hit with a compressed schedule later when they make these games up.

The Devils are 15th in the league in games played with 37. Anaheim has played 41, the Islanders have played 30. The Devils will not be playing a compressed schedule and given that the majority of the Devils players under contract have gotten COVID and will not require testing until season's end, there's not going to be any reason to postpone future games unless attendance is somehow limited (and given that we appear to be around the peak of Omicron, this seems unlikely).

 

[Bleedred]

There's some teams that haven't had many games postponed. I think maybe it was the Flyers that have only had 3-4 postponements so far? And maybe other teams have even less.

The teams that really didn't have many games postponed because of their own situations or haven't had to play in Canada in the last month where they're postponing a lot of games.

 

[Guadana]

Wanting a guy to stay if he takes 5.25 million but acting like he would cripple the team at 6.25 doesn’t add up.

You give Severson 6.5, not 5.25, and Graves will ask 1 mil more, you gave him, etc etc, and some day you don`t have money for Mercer after his second contract. Thanks, but I don`t give a fock what Severson want if he can`t make home discount, because he is nowhere close to be meaningful player to be 6+ per year in this team. To be the man why we will let Graves to the market, or even will not find money for Mercer for example. He was always be a "good defenseman in a bad team", but he was always bad defenseman.
If you cant understand it, management is not your thing(but its more about basic arithmetic and logistic). But this is what it is. Severson isn`t great PP playmaker, he is good blue liner, but he isnt great, he isn`t great PK player, he is bad on the slot, he lose breakaways against, in the team where you have Hamilton, Luke, you don`t need to spend a lot of money for 2nd pair offensive defenseman.

 

[Guttersniped]

So you think that a guy who’s about to hit free agency for the first time in his career is going to take a pay cut, in order to stay on a team that couldn’t crack the playoffs but once, and got destroyed in the 1st round? It’s not definitive but if you use common sense, it kind of is.

As for his return, teams would be doing backflips if they could add Severson for 2 playoffs runs at less then 2.5M$. The Leafs are in win now mode and instead of wasting major assets on Klingberg, for one playoff push, they’d have Severson for a minimum of 2. There’s other teams that can use his services, so I don’t know why it’s the Leafs or bust.

Regarding Ty Smith, it’s more about him then anything else. He did play with Severson last year but I don’t think Damon is the main reason why Ty was so great, in fact, I’d even say that Severson wasn’t that much of a factor. He needs to take a step back and reassess things.

Severson has played well with a number of guys (he was also forced to play with space trash John Moore for a shocking amount of time).

He got the most not only out of Smith last season but Murray too (after Murray sucked with Subban). Both times while playing top line minutes. And having his play hindered by a broken toe (and yes, if if you play the same teams over and over they will notice when a defenseman is hobbled.)

Severson is very a important player for this team. Severson also has never seemed that unhappy, he’s never checked out, he pairs well with a number of guys, grown as a leader and as a player… you really can’t ask that much more of a guy. He makes mental mistakes, but no, that’s not due to him not caring (I swear some people here act like almost any team would win the Cup only by raising their Caring/60).

And I’m not sure we resign him. Maybe?

Hamilton’s contract is huge and you have to very careful about spending on defense. You have separate the discussions of what we’re spending on forwards and defensemen.

Right now with the cap at 81.5m teams at the cap spend around:

20-25m on defense
40-50m on forwards
3-10m+ Goalies are actually all over the place and are a problem for some teams (just ask poor Bill Zito)

You particularly want to try to get good some good value contracts on defense because it’s often where your cap goes to die. No team has just great defensive contracts but big ones have great significance because there’s room for very few (unless you overspend on defense which is just about always bad to do for an extended period of time).

NYR fans defend Trouba and he’s actually been very solid with, uh, physical edge. He has not been however nearly worth 8m. Fox gave them a really nice deal, when the cap goes up and he’s in his prime, 9.5 for him will particularly look good.

However both guys make a combined 17.5m next year and with Lindgren’s 3m (seriously, f*** you Sweeney) that’s 20.5m. So they have to go with youth and cheap filler beyond that.

Severson can’t get overpaid by us because we need him desperately or whatever. He’s worth about 5-6m and 6.5m isn’t great and more is a very bad idea. How long do you want him around? So term is an issue.

Debating about where his head is at in regards to this team is very HFBoards but it’s pure speculation.

Maybe he wants on a true contender ASAP or to play nearer to home (sweet Manitoba) or hit the market as a UFA or he believes in this team or he doesn’t want to play next year without the security of a long term deal or or or.

I responded to @Guadana post, well partly because he’s gentleman poster of the highest quality, but also because 1) I’ve also wanted Niemelä (before it was cool!) and 2) thought it was funny that he was off-limits (and Liljegren isn’t even mentioned) but they thought offering some 22-23 year old bottom pairing AHL defensemen would be legit.

Hollowell is basically Reilly Walsh except 6 months older, two inches shorter, 10 pounds lighter and less productive. And it sounds like he’s is even worse defensively. I don’t want him for Subban either, or for free really. (I would probably take Král for free but that’s the extent of my interest and now I know about these random Marlies.)

Amirov & Niemelä is a solid return (that Leaf fans we see as insane), but yeah, I would be looking for a crazy return. I was just picking out of the four names and Nick Robertson is more of a ? to me due to injury. (I might be underestimating Robertson but he’s been injured a lot.)

Going to teams offering Severson at 50% (2.08) would probably get us bonkers offers. It would be crushing in the room though so the return would have to pay off fast.

 

[MVP Zacha]

Just checking to see if everyone is still arguing....






....yep.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

You give Severson 6.5, not 5.25, and Graves will ask 1 mil more, you gave him, etc etc, and some day you don`t have money for Mercer after his second contract. Thanks, but I don`t give a fock what Severson want if he can`t make home discount, because he is nowhere close to be meaningful player to be 6+ per year in this team. To be the man why we will let Graves to the market, or even will not find money for Mercer for example. He was always be a "good defenseman in a bad team", but he was always bad defenseman.
If you cant understand it, management is not your thing(but its more about basic arithmetic and logistic). But this is what it is. Severson isn`t great PP playmaker, he is good blue liner, but he isnt great, he isn`t great PK player, he is bad on the slot, he lose breakaways against, in the team where you have Hamilton, Luke, you don`t need to spend a lot of money for 2nd pair offensive defenseman.

One player’s negotiations have absolutely nothing to do with another’s. We’re not anywhere close to not being able to afford anyone, that’s pure fantasy.

A bad contract would be giving Zacha, a stinky marginal player 4+ million dollars. Giving Severson the going rate for a player of his caliber is fine. What do you think solid to above average right handed dman that play 23 minutes a night should make?

 

[devilsblood]

Just checking to see if everyone is still arguing....






....yep.

Uh, what else would we be doing?

 

[Dylan9z9]

I hope Blackwood enjoys his rest before we run him into the ground again.

I say sent him to Utica

 

[Guadana]

One player’s negotiations have absolutely nothing to do with another’s. We’re not anywhere close to not being able to afford anyone, that’s pure fantasy.

A bad contract would be giving Zacha, a stinky marginal player 4+ million dollars. Giving Severson the going rate for a player of his caliber is fine. What do you think solid to above average right handed dman that play 23 minutes a night should make?

All the answers are in posts. I will not tell you something new. You can use math and find money for Bratt raise, Mercer raise after 3-5 years, Graves, working goaltending, top-6 scoring winger(no matter will it be Sharangovich who will scoring regulary, or someone from the market, if Yegor will not be our top-6 player), and Severson.

And one player`s contract negotiations have absolutely enough to do with another`s. Numbers are open.

 

[Dylan9z9]

These owners no nothing about Hockey or Hockey Players or running a hockey team.
They are business men who know how to save a buck for example hiring Lindy Ruff as head coach when there was so many better options.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Severson has played well with a number of guys (he was also forced to play with space trash John Moore for a shocking amount of time).

He got the most not only out of Smith last season but Murray too (after Murray sucked with Subban). Both times while playing top line minutes. And having his play hindered by a broken toe (and yes, if if you play the same teams over and over they will notice when a defenseman is hobbled.)

Severson is very a important player for this team. Severson also has never seemed that unhappy, he’s never checked out, he pairs well with a number of guys, grown as a leader and as a player… you really can’t ask that much more of a guy. He makes mental mistakes, but no, that’s not due to him not caring (I swear some people here act like almost any team would win the Cup only by raising their Caring/60).

And I’m not sure we resign him. Maybe?

Hamilton’s contract is huge and you have to very careful about spending on defense. You have separate the discussions of what we’re spending on forwards and defensemen.

Right now with the cap at 81.5m teams at the cap spend around:

20-25m on defense
40-50m on forwards
3-10m+ Goalies are actually all over the place and are a problem for some teams (just ask poor Bill Zito)

You particularly want to try to get good some good value contracts on defense because it’s often where your cap goes to die. No team has just great defensive contracts but big ones have great significance because there’s room for very few (unless you overspend on defense which is just about always bad to do for an extended period of time).

NYR fans defend Trouba and he’s actually been very solid with, uh, physical edge. He has not been however nearly worth 8m. Fox gave them a really nice deal, when the cap goes up and he’s in his prime, 9.5 for him will particularly look good.

However both guys make a combined 17.5m next year and with Lindgren’s 3m (seriously, f*** you Sweeney) that’s 20.5m. So they have to go with youth and cheap filler beyond that.

Severson can’t get overpaid by us because we need him desperately or whatever. He’s worth about 5-6m and 6.5m isn’t great and more is a very bad idea. How long do you want him around? So term is an issue.

Debating about where his head is at in regards to this team is very HFBoards but it’s pure speculation.

Maybe he wants on a true contender ASAP or to play nearer to home (sweet Manitoba) or hit the market as a UFA or he believes in this team or he doesn’t want to play next year without the security of a long term deal or or or.

I responded to @Guadana post, well partly because he’s gentleman poster of the highest quality, but also because 1) I’ve also wanted Niemelä (before it was cool!) and 2) thought it was funny that he was off-limits (and Liljegren isn’t even mentioned) but they thought offering some 22-23 year old bottom pairing AHL defensemen would be legit.

Hollowell is basically Reilly Walsh except 6 months older, two inches shorter, 10 pounds lighter and less productive. And it sounds like he’s is even worse defensively. I don’t want him for Subban either, or for free really. (I would probably take Král for free but that’s the extent of my interest and now I know about these random Marlies.)

Amirov & Niemelä is a solid return (that Leaf fans we see as insane), but yeah, I would be looking for a crazy return. I was just picking out of the four names and Nick Robertson is more of a ? to me due to injury. (I might be underestimating Robertson but he’s been injured a lot.)

Going to teams offering Severson at 50% (2.08) would probably get us bonkers offers. It would be crushing in the room though so the return would have to pay off fast.

I agree with literally everything you said here. Severson is very valuable to us and we should definitely try to keep him but need to be careful with how much we spend on him and others. I’d personally rather keep him than Graves. Especially with all of the LD in the pipeline.

I think the sooner we figure this out the better though because his trade value from now to next years deadline will be drastically different. If they talk to his agent now and are getting a really high price and they feel they can keep Graves at a more reasonable price and are comfortable with losing him than they should explore trading him before this deadline because we could get a very good return and potential a really good nhl ready or close to nhl ready prospect.

I agree that it is just speculation as to where his head is at but I have gotten a somewhat frustrated vibe from him these last couple seasons. Almost an impression that he feels he has been very good but is getting sick and tired of losing with this team. That is pure speculation though and could be completely wrong.