Devils 2017-18 team discussion (player news and notes) - Offseason part IX

[NJDevs26]

I know it might be me blindly having faith in them but obviously Shero and Co though there is a higher upside over Merrill who I actually liked. Until they prove me otherwise I'll continue to trust them. They've done a great job so far building up the farm system despite not adding much to the back end. I'd imagine that is the next and "final" piece to the puzzle.

That's the thing, they've built up the farm system with forwards and a couple of goalies. They haven't yet shown the same aptitude for finding defensive talent although I loved the Walsh pick this year - but even he hasn't played a post draft minute yet. Lou in his final years was the inverse, kept churning out defenseman but forwards were a wasteland.

 

[Devils Dominion]

That's the thing, they've built up the farm system with forwards and a couple of goalies. They haven't yet shown the same aptitude for finding defensive talent although I loved the Walsh pick this year - but even he hasn't played a post draft minute yet. Lou in his final years was the inverse, kept churning out defenseman but forwards were a wasteland.

What defenseman have sticked with success aside from Sevs and possibly Santini?

 

[NJDevs26]

What defenseman have sticked with success aside from Sevs and possibly Santini?

Larsson too. And Merrill might not have lived up to the billing he had a couple years ago but a second rounder playing regularly in the NHL for a few seasons is still a good pick.

Not like most of our current drafted forwards have made the NHL yet, I'm being generous assuming it's a given a good chunk pan out.

 

[JimEIV]

What defenseman have sticked with success aside from Sevs and possibly Santini?

From 2010 to 2015

Fayne(4 seasons), Larsson(5 seasons), Severson(3 seasons), Merrill(4 seasons)...Hell Andy Greene didn't play his first full season with us until 2009-10

I think 4 seasons is "sticked" I'm sure you're going argue the "success" part but from a minutes perspective all those guys played top 4 minutes or better minutes during their time here.

 

[OmNomNom]

don't forget gelinas and helgeson. we legit at the time thought they'd actually become something. relatively speaking, compared to our forward prospects, we thought we'd get some bonafide D from our prospects, as opposed to our forwards

 

[Merrills Marauders]

Looks like it is Amanda Stein replacing Julie for all access host. Writing seemed to be on the wall with her covering the prospects camp.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

Looks like it is Amanda Stein replacing Julie for all access host. Writing seemed to be on the wall with her covering the prospects camp.

Just saw this. I think she's a great hire.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Just saw this. I think she's a great hire.

She's not bad, but a downgrade from Julie.

 

[Its a Trap]

From 2010 to 2015

Fayne(4 seasons), Larsson(5 seasons), Severson(3 seasons), Merrill(4 seasons)...Hell Andy Greene didn't play his first full season with us until 2009-10

I think 4 seasons is "sticked" I'm sure you're going argue the "success" part but from a minutes perspective all those guys played top 4 minutes or better minutes during their time here.

Ok well, Greene either doesn't count or Merrill doesn't count because if Greene not playing full seasons count against him, Merrill has never played a full season and therefor doesn't count.

 

[Billdo]

Walsh could be, Rykov obviously too. I'd expect them to go heavy D in the upcoming draft or start to move some of these prospects for D of equal perceived value. I'd imagine it's part of the plan. They're already a top 15 forward pool, if not top 10. Throw in a year of heavily drafted defensemen and we are heading down the right path.

 

[devilsblood]

Walsh could be, Rykov obviously too. I'd expect them to go heavy D in the upcoming draft or start to move some of these prospects for D of equal perceived value. I'd imagine it's part of the plan. They're already a top 15 forward pool, if not top 10. Throw in a year of heavily drafted defensemen and we are heading down the right path.

You wonder if part of that plan is targeting fwd's early and d-men later.

Maybe they think high end fwd's are easier to evaluate? Maybe they think they can find high end d-men late.

 

[AfroThunder396]

There's a lot more risk in taking defensemen high because they take longer to mature.

If you take a defenseman in the top-10 and their offensive game never matures, you're going to feel silly looking back at the 60 point forward you passed on. Unless they're an offensive freak with like Ekblad or Makar it's really not a great gamble.

I think for defensemen it's better to take projects with obvious talent or instincts and let them take the time to mature. It sucks because we need them now, but it's better than just dropping a 19 year old in and hoping they're as good as you think they are.

It's also a great opportunity cost to pick up falling 1st round forward talent in the early 2nd, IMO it's better to target defenseman after pick 40-50 and let them simmer for a few years. You can find very talented late bloomer defensemen in later rounds.

 

[MichaelJ]

That's the thing, they've built up the farm system with forwards and a couple of goalies. They haven't yet shown the same aptitude for finding defensive talent although I loved the Walsh pick this year - but even he hasn't played a post draft minute yet. Lou in his final years was the inverse, kept churning out defenseman but forwards were a wasteland.

I think they'll try to trade for defense. Yes, the price is high, but the Devils will eventually be positioned to pay it AND will need to.

- Drafting defense is an even bigger crapshoot than forwards and they take longer to mature. It'll take years before the team even knows if it has something. That's not to say they shouldn't build up their defensive prospects, but if this team wants to finish rebuilding some time this decade the draft likely won't be the solution.

- FA won't solve the issue either. Not many quality defenders make it to FA and then they have to choose the Devils. Low likelihood of success.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

There's a lot more risk in taking defensemen high because they take longer to mature.

If you take a defenseman in the top-10 and their offensive game never matures, you're going to feel silly looking back at the 60 point forward you passed on. Unless they're an offensive freak with like Ekblad or Makar it's really not a great gamble.

I think for defensemen it's better to take projects with obvious talent or instincts and let them take the time to mature. It sucks because we need them now, but it's better than just dropping a 19 year old in and hoping they're as good as you think they are.

It's also a great opportunity cost to pick up falling 1st round forward talent in the early 2nd, IMO it's better to target defenseman after pick 40-50 and let them simmer for a few years. You can find very talented late bloomer defensemen in later rounds.

Great post. Just look at Adam Fox for example.

 

[billingtons ghost]

What defenseman have sticked with success aside from Sevs and possibly Santini?

I think as listed above, there's a decent track record -

I'm interested in seeing what forwards stick from the last few draft years... Over/under of 5 from Shero's last drafts?

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

I think they'll try to trade for defense. Yes, the price is high, but the Devils will eventually be positioned to pay it AND will need to.

- Drafting defense is an even bigger crapshoot than forwards and they take longer to mature. It'll take years before the team even knows if it has something. That's not to say they shouldn't build up their defensive prospects, but if this team wants to finish rebuilding some time this decade the draft likely won't be the solution.

- FA won't solve the issue either. Not many quality defenders make it to FA and then they have to choose the Devils. Low likelihood of success.

Well, and this may be why Shero (and Castron) have been gunning for high-talent forwards. They've cast a pretty wide net.. to the point where I like our odds of having a good player being made expendable due to organizational depth.

We're already starting to see this with Henrique, and that's just with players we have coming up in 2017-18. As guys like Bastian, Speers and the '17 picks round out and become regulars, we'll have a surplus. That's when I think we'll see a high-profile trade for an impact defenseman.

 

[Scorcho]

I think as listed above, there's a decent track record -

I'm interested in seeing what forwards stick from the last few draft years... Over/under of 5 from Shero's last drafts?

over

 

[MichaelJ]

Well, and this may be why Shero (and Castron) have been gunning for high-talent forwards. They've cast a pretty wide net.. to the point where I like our odds of having a good player being made expendable due to organizational depth.

We're already starting to see this with Henrique, and that's just with players we have coming up in 2017-18. As guys like Bastian, Speers and the '17 picks round out and become regulars, we'll have a surplus. That's when I think we'll see a high-profile trade for an impact defenseman.

Yea, I think mgmt might feel comfortable as early as next offseason making a high profile move.

And I know it's an unpopular here so far, but I can see the 2018 1st being in play on draft day depending where it lands. If Shero feels he can get a top, 25 year old and under defenseman I could see that pick moved rather than a draft and wait.

 

[Triumph]

Yea, I think mgmt might feel comfortable as early as next offseason making a high profile move.

And I know it's an unpopular here so far, but I can see the 2018 1st being in play on draft day depending where it lands. If Shero feels he can get a top, 25 year old and under defenseman I could see that pick moved rather than a draft and wait.

I think it should be noted that you also wanted the Devils to consider moving the 2017 1st round pick around this time last year.

Trading that pick on draft day is not likely to be a very good idea just because of the circumstances teams find themselves in who are going to want to be dumping a guy for a 1st pick. But I agree that it should be a consideration, just like anything should be.

 

[JimEIV]

Maybe they're waiting for Damon's birthday to give him his present ?

Oh wait...Today is his Birthday...Where is this damn contract????

 

[MichaelJ]

I think it should be noted that you also wanted the Devils to consider moving the 2017 1st round pick around this time last year.

Trading that pick on draft day is not likely to be a very good idea just because of the circumstances teams find themselves in who are going to want to be dumping a guy for a 1st pick. But I agree that it should be a consideration, just like anything should be.

I did. I thought doing so would've guaranteed a playoff berth, helped solidify the foundation, and push the pick to the later teens. I was likely very wrong and I'm glad to have Hischier. Because of this, I wouldn't trade the 1st at such an early date. But, as you said, I would keep the option open once we know where the pick falls and what the roster makeup is like. Shero even said (who knows if true) that the team would've looked to trade out of #5 had they stayed there.

I also wouldn't just look to trade the pick straight up to help a team dump a player, I'd try and package it with other assets for a quality player.

 

[Billdo]

You wonder if part of that plan is targeting fwd's early and d-men later.

Maybe they think high end fwd's are easier to evaluate? Maybe they think they can find high end d-men late.

Basically yes. I think they're going to forwards over D because solid D are harder to find. Would I have liked a D in the Boqvist slot? Sure, but I don't necessarily mind the Boqvist pick with a few of their possible D targets already gone. I think they've gone BPA until the later rounds. However, like I've mentioned before, the 2018 draft I'd be shocked if they didn't go majority of D picks or traded for defenseman.

 

[Goptor]

There's a lot more risk in taking defensemen high because they take longer to mature.

If you take a defenseman in the top-10 and their offensive game never matures, you're going to feel silly looking back at the 60 point forward you passed on. Unless they're an offensive freak with like Ekblad or Makar it's really not a great gamble.

I think for defensemen it's better to take projects with obvious talent or instincts and let them take the time to mature. It sucks because we need them now, but it's better than just dropping a 19 year old in and hoping they're as good as you think they are.

It's also a great opportunity cost to pick up falling 1st round forward talent in the early 2nd, IMO it's better to target defenseman after pick 40-50 and let them simmer for a few years. You can find very talented late bloomer defensemen in later rounds.

I disagree with Defenseman being riskier picks higher in the first round. If you go back through drafts you'll find that the defensemen are more likely to have long careers than the forwards.

My opinion is that the defensemen who don't live up to expectations stick around while the forwards bust out and are forgotten. Luke Schenn is a poster boy for a failed top pick but Filatov was picked right after him. I even forgot about him till I pulled up 2008 draft list to use as an example.

I think the problem with Defensemen (and goalies to an even greater extent) is that they provide lower expected value out of a draft pick. They'll be more likely to have poor play through their ELC, then become better than average players in time for their bridge contract and finally be at the top of their game just when they become UFA and leave the franchise. Forwards can provide unmatched value because they'll be tearing up the league during their ELC and get underpaid as they are given bridge contracts. Overall you may get 3-4 years of solid play from a Dman prior to UFA age but get 5-6 solid years from a forward.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

NHL teams appear to be better at drafting defensemen these days than even five years ago. Basically, if you're a CHL defenseman who is not putting up around .7 or .8 points a game, you arent going to sniff the top 20, maybe not even the first round. This wasn't always the case, as mediocre defenseman like Gudbranson, Schenn, Murray were all drafted very high, not to mention Dylan McIlrath who was drafted 10th overall, but didn't project to be anything more than a better version of John Scott.

PPG in junior (or also for the US developmental team) for a defenseman isn't a perfect metric, but it's a lot better than what teams seemed to rely on in the past. I imagine that defenseman drafted in the first 15 picks now have a higher success rate than they used to, and they make a difference at the NHL level sooner, and almost at the same rate as forwards drafted in the same range.

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

Looks like it is Amanda Stein replacing Julie for all access host. Writing seemed to be on the wall with her covering the prospects camp.

Close to 20,000 twitter followers and it seems like the entire hockey world congratulated her so seems like a good addition.