Proposal: Detroit is changing players?

[Ice Mammoth]

I don't think you understand what AAV is.

But sum this one up... those teams are not going to trade those players to us for anything shy of us dealing a similarly aged and pedigreed player.

To get one of those guys, you're giving up Seider or Edvinsson or Raymond and those are all a no from Detroit.

Teams don't trade talented RFAs for quantity who don't also have some kind of disqualifying characteristic about them (Kravstov's attitude, Fox refusing to play anywhere but NYR, Anthony DeAngelo being a gigantic jackass, Nolan Patrick being one very large concussion in the shape of a hockey player, etc). If you have a player like any of those guys, you let them grow and give them a chance in your system first because you drafted them and have them for cheap.

You can swing a deal if you're overloaded at D and need a C or vice versa (a la Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen), but the quantity trades for the guys like Anton Lundell just don't happen.

For all of the players you listed, Detroit's assets that you're putting out there as available have damn near no value.

"I don't think you understand what AAV is. "
This is where you are wrong.

"For all of the players you listed, Detroit's assets that you're putting out there as available have damn near no value."
"…have damn near no value." Do you write about these players?

"Tyler Bertuzzi: AAV $1,187,500; UFA 2023 (DET @50% ret + ??? @50% ret) (Canada???).
Or - Jakub Vrána: AAV $1,312,500; UFA 2024; (IR); (DET @50% ret + ??? @50% ret).
Or - Filip Hronek: AAV $1,100,000; RFA 2024 (DET @50% ret + ??? @50% ret)."
"Detroit may include in the deal: Thomas Greiss, Nick Leddy, Danny Dekeyser, Troy Stecher, Marc Staal, Vladislav Namestnikov, Pius Suter, Robby Fabbri."

I think a team that wants to win the Stanley Cup in 2022 can go for an exchange.
I think such an exchange is possible.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

"I don't think you understand what AAV is. "
This is where you are wrong.

"For all of the players you listed, Detroit's assets that you're putting out there as available have damn near no value."
"…have damn near no value." Do you write about these players?

"Tyler Bertuzzi: AAV $1,187,500; UFA 2023 (DET @50% ret + ??? @50% ret) (Canada???).
Or - Jakub Vrána: AAV $1,312,500; UFA 2024; (IR); (DET @50% ret + ??? @50% ret).
Or - Filip Hronek: AAV $1,100,000; RFA 2024 (DET @50% ret + ??? @50% ret)."
"Detroit may include in the deal: Thomas Greiss, Nick Leddy, Danny Dekeyser, Troy Stecher, Marc Staal, Vladislav Namestnikov, Pius Suter, Robby Fabbri."

I think a team that wants to win the Stanley Cup in 2022 can go for an exchange.
I think such an exchange is possible.

Teams are not going to help Detroit out to land a prospective 1C. Teams do that for one season for rentals because they’re kicking in like 400k or so and getting a low round pick.

 

[Stony Curtis]

I think we can be civil here if we are honest.

I have made the factual assertion that Krav's value, initially ballparked in line with his 9OA pedigree, holds until he gets a legit chance to play meaningful mins, which has not happened to date.
Like I said, 20 games on the 4th line of an injury riddled shit show of a team is not a legit chance.
Lias Andersson got meaningful mins w/Zib, Kreider, etc
He stunk up the joint.
He was a total bust, and I'm glad we got a 2nd for him.

Hopefully Drury will realize GM or not, stupid moves that pushed the kid's buttons are not smart.

Drury needs to understand, and anyone who wants to tell him I said so, that he has an obligation to the team and that means to have his personal bias bend buckle and break in capitulation to the best interest of the team. If he wants to replace Kravtsov with other futures he has chosen, fine, but he does not sabotage the value of the pick, which is what he has done.

Fortunately, this is something from which there is recovery.
1. Make a roster spot for Krav when he get here
2, Play him meaningful minutes here = top Fs as linemates
3. Give decent opportunity for the kid to succeed time wise.

And then we judge.
And if he is another Lias Andersson, which I am projecting he certainly won't be, I'll be the first to call him a bum and demand he go.

Until then, I get the vultures want 9OA talent for less than cheap.

Not gonna happen.

So in conclusion, that NY controls Krav's situation and can repair it, the perception Rangers are forced to give him away and hence he is not worth ballpark 9OA value is wrong.

Then to that were added Trouba, Jones and retained Strome = 1st.

Now if you still prefer Seider b'c you value him that highly, fine.

But let's not pretend you were not offered appreciable package

So you admit his value has been sabotaged (I would argue self-sabotaged), yet you also say he still has the value of a 9 OA pick. Pretty sure those two statements are incongruent.

 

[bernmeister]

So you admit his value has been sabotaged (I would argue self-sabotaged), yet you also say he still has the value of a 9 OA pick. Pretty sure those two statements are incongruent.

yes and no really more no b'c of the conditions.

He has 9OA value and will have that until he gets legit chance to demonstrate ability which has to = meaningful mins w/meaningful top line guys.

Once that happens his value could go up, down or stay the same. But THAT is the dominant consideration as to his value. It is not this temporary nightmare which is NYR undoing of its own making.
The key word there being temporary.

Sure, another club wants merchandise wholesale, and it recognizes value, and says I'll pay 12-13OA or even 15OA for 9OA value, and then Rangers have to evaluate if convenience factor or other aspects are worth it, or does Krav have too much upside.

But any perceived loss of value is inaccurate b'c it is factually temporary. This assumes unlike to date, NY will not be stupid and deny him a legit opportunity. His value is then based on what we see.

Nothing more
nothing less

ps - like the name and avatar. Takes me back to childhood Flintstones and Jonny Quest

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

You seriously just tried to suggest that Fischer keeling over on the ice and having his career cut short was actually good fortune for Detroit?

We're done.

I'm saying that he's fortunate to still be alive. And you're not able to discuss this rationally or without obfuscation. 5 busts before picking Datsyuk and you reflexively cling to the tangential mention of Fischer like it's Benghazi.

 

[njx9]

He has 9OA value and will have that until he gets legit chance to demonstrate ability which has to = meaningful mins w/meaningful top line guys.

The dude was drafted 3 years ago and has done nothing in the NHL or AHL. He didn't have a particularly noteworthy season in the KHL, either. The only person on the planet who still thinks he has current 9OA value is you.

That said, even if you're right, the idea that the Wings would trade one of the best young D-men in the league for a package with a winger as it's centerpiece is absolutely laughable.

Have any Wings fans ever responded positively to any of your offers for Seider? Do you think that maybe there's a reason for that?

 

[Ice Mammoth]

Teams are not going to help Detroit out to land a prospective 1C. Teams do that for one season for rentals because they’re kicking in like 400k or so and getting a low round pick.

I agree with you in part. This is true in most payroll withholding transactions. The deal is happening closer to the deadline. The hockey player's contract ends. The third team gets 3rd or less.

New types of deals are often being made in the league now. There were practically none of them before. Think back to Tampa, rediscovering the power of LTIR.

Think of the Vancouver-Arizona deal. There are two interesting points.
Arizona got OA9. Although I often read on the forum that no one changes the choice of top10.
Arizona made payroll - Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($ 990,000 retained - 12%) • $7,260,000.
Ekman-Larsson - UFA 2027. This is a long term withholding. It is a rarity. But it happened.
Arizona Coyotes Trade History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I think Detroit will have no problem finding a third team. It's a matter of price. Tyler Bertuzzi UFA 2023, Jakub Vrána UFA 2024, Filip Hronek RFA 2024. This is not a long time. Detroit will do it first.
The maximum salary deduction for the third team will be $1,312,500 per year. This is in the seasons 2022/23 and 2023/24. At Bertuzzi in the 2022/23 season.
The annual retention cost is very low. Think of the 2021 deals with David Savard and Patrik Nemeth (2021 4th).
Detroit Red Wings Trade History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I am not considering the Detroit-New York Islanders (Richard Pánik ($1,375,000 retained - 50%) deal. I think this is Steve Yzerman's fault).

I think Detroit will find a third team without any problems. It is not expensive.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I agree with you in part. This is true in most payroll withholding transactions. The deal is happening closer to the deadline. The hockey player's contract ends. The third team gets 3rd or less.

New types of deals are often being made in the league now. There were practically none of them before. Think back to Tampa, rediscovering the power of LTIR.

Think of the Vancouver-Arizona deal. There are two interesting points.
Arizona got OA9. Although I often read on the forum that no one changes the choice of top10.
Arizona made payroll - Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($ 990,000 retained - 12%) • $7,260,000.
Ekman-Larsson - UFA 2027. This is a long term withholding. It is a rarity. But it happened.
Arizona Coyotes Trade History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I think Detroit will have no problem finding a third team. It's a matter of price. Tyler Bertuzzi UFA 2023, Jakub Vrána UFA 2024, Filip Hronek RFA 2024. This is not a long time. Detroit will do it first.
The maximum salary deduction for the third team will be $1,312,500 per year. This is in the seasons 2022/23 and 2023/24. At Bertuzzi in the 2022/23 season.
The annual retention cost is very low. Think of the 2021 deals with David Savard and Patrik Nemeth (2021 4th).
Detroit Red Wings Trade History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I am not considering the Detroit-New York Islanders (Richard Pánik ($1,375,000 retained - 50%) deal. I think this is Steve Yzerman's fault).

I think Detroit will find a third team without any problems. It is not expensive.

No. Vancouver did that trade because they wanted OEL. They got Arizona to retain because OEL's contract was not one they wanted to take on in its full amount.

What you're saying is another team would take on 2-3 years of a quarter of Bertuzzi's, Vrana's, or Hronek's salary. It's a lot more expensive to find a 3rd deal to retain another 50% when you're asking them to do it for three years. And that's where I'm really getting at it... another team isn't going to do a favor for Detroit to facilitate this unless Detroit overpays them to do it. This isn't "hey, retain like $5 on this trade for me and I'll give you a Coke"

The retention cost is exceedingly low when it was one year. That's when you can retain 50% of an 8 million contract and that's 1M at the end of the day. The Wings held like 600k of David Savard's money because contracts at the TDL are reduced by the percentage of the season that has already been played.

 

[Ice Mammoth]

No. Vancouver did that trade because they wanted OEL. They got Arizona to retain because OEL's contract was not one they wanted to take on in its full amount.

What you're saying is another team would take on 2-3 years of a quarter of Bertuzzi's, Vrana's, or Hronek's salary. It's a lot more expensive to find a 3rd deal to retain another 50% when you're asking them to do it for three years. And that's where I'm really getting at it... another team isn't going to do a favor for Detroit to facilitate this unless Detroit overpays them to do it. This isn't "hey, retain like $5 on this trade for me and I'll give you a Coke"

The retention cost is exceedingly low when it was one year. That's when you can retain 50% of an 8 million contract and that's 1M at the end of the day. The Wings held like 600k of David Savard's money because contracts at the TDL are reduced by the percentage of the season that has already been played.

I think the reasons for the Vancouver-Arizona deal were slightly different.
I continue to think that Detroit will easily find a third team.
I keep thinking it will be inexpensive. I take into account the statistics of compensation in similar transactions.

We have presented our arguments. We will not come to a consensus. We are talking about the future.
Therefore, none of us can give facts now.
We can only wait for a few similar payroll deals.

I'm not afraid to voice my opinion. I'm not afraid to be wrong. I'll go a little further. I will try to predict compensation.

The third team participates in the deal on the deadline (@$1,500,000 ret):
The term of the contract is 2 years. The third team gets: 3rd + 4th.
The term of the contract is 3 years. The third team gets: 2nd + 3nd + 4th.

I find it inexpensive. If the goal is to get C, ELC from my comment # 105, then it is justified.
You may think it will be more expensive. It is your right. There is no point in arguing about this. Good luck.
I will patiently await such deals.

 

[bernmeister]

The dude was drafted 3 years ago and has done nothing in the NHL or AHL. He didn't have a particularly noteworthy season in the KHL, either. The only person on the planet who still thinks he has current 9OA value is you.

That said, even if you're right, the idea that the Wings would trade one of the best young D-men in the league for a package with a winger as it's centerpiece is absolutely laughable.

Have any Wings fans ever responded positively to any of your offers for Seider? Do you think that maybe there's a reason for that?

Not gonna repeat myself, I answered your error in bold.
He established KHL record.
Here is what is current:
Rangers Prospect Watch: Zac Jones, Braden Schneider, and Vitali Kravtsov progressing | Yardbarker

Pertinent quote:
"Kravtsov, 21, is playing really well for Traktor in the KHL. In just eight games, he’s already picked up five goals to go with one assist."

KHL is arguably among if not best league in the world after NHL, way better than AHL.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Until then, I get the vultures want 9OA talent for less than cheap.

Not gonna happen.

That is not what's happening though. You're the one trying to pawn him off as a highly valuable piece for someone else's very valuable piece. Nobody's asking for Krav here...so how do you conclude people are trying to get him on the cheap?

 

[Crazy8oooo]

mostly this^ and I repeat
the hypothetical on Seider was in reponse to OP query. which in full context was comprehensive and fair.

Seider is not going anywhere.
It's nice conversation to examine theoreticals.
But end of the day
Seider is a building block
and
Rangers get more for Krav elsewhere

Howev, moving on from Trouba at some pt is real, and Wings coud use him if we could agree on a price.

Not a single person in this thread has agreed on your value assessment. In fact, it's the exact opposite, yet you continue to tell everyone how you're right and they're wrong.

 

[QCNords]

Petry for Hronek ++ as a base?

 

[Ice Mammoth]

Petry for Hronek ++ as a base?

There are three times less pluses, and they are not on the side.
You probably made a mistake by accident. I'll fix it.
Petry++++++ for Hronek as a base?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Petry for Hronek ++ as a base?

No, time for us to want Petry has passed. Petry a couple years ago? We had a glaring need. Now? I'm content to let Seider grow, let Edvinsson make his way here and have Nick Leddy and Marc Staal as the "veteran presence"

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

That is not what's happening though. You're the one trying to pawn him off as a highly valuable piece for someone else's very valuable piece. Nobody's asking for Krav here...so how do you conclude people are trying to get him on the cheap?

The only way I'd be interested in Kravstov is on the cheap. I'm not trying to acquire him, but if I were, I certainly wouldn't be attributing 9OA value to him.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Petry for Hronek ++ as a base?

A soon to be 34 year old Jeff Petry for Hronek++ You have those pluses on the wrong side dude.

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

Petry for Hronek ++ as a base?

You serious or trolling?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

No, time for us to want Petry has passed. Petry a couple years ago? We had a glaring need. Now? I'm content to let Seider grow, let Edvinsson make his way here and have Nick Leddy and Marc Staal as the "veteran presence"

Also... are the pluses here "Detroit receives a pick from Montreal" and "Detroit receives a pick from Montreal"? That's a weird way to lay out a trade request, normally you'd have positive assets represented by +'s. But you can add negative numbers to positive numbers.

 

[bernmeister]

Not a single person in this thread has agreed on your value assessment. In fact, it's the exact opposite, yet you continue to tell everyone how you're right and they're wrong.

No one has to agree; I am right or wrong on merit to extent based on fact, if and to the degree fact is ascertainable.

People thought Columbus was wrong too.
But even if he did not have every detail worked out, he was correct in postulating that you go east [Cathay] by going west.
In the end he was proven right.

Krav may or may not turn out to be a great player.
He may or may not turn out to be a bust!

But no one can say he is worth dramatically different from his 9OA draft value until he gets a legit chance, which he has not had.
That there has been such a gaffe by team mgmt can not in all fairness be held vs the player.

And again, the fact that Rangers can eventually create a roster spot, get him back, showcase then build his value, overrides any negative command from others to sell him cheap.

 

[bernmeister]

Not a single person in this thread has agreed on your value assessment. In fact, it's the exact opposite, yet you continue to tell everyone how you're right and they're wrong.

The bold refers to a comment I made about OP.
OP premise was if enough was on the table, anyone, including Seider, should be considered available.

I made a case for what I considered overpay with pieces I would consider moving and DET base did not want those pieces.
There can be an honest effort to attempt to ascertain
1) to what extent what I am proposing is actually overpayment
and
2) to what extent is that sufficient [or not] for the target Seider

ob la di
ob la da
life goes on
bra

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

No one has to agree; I am right or wrong on merit to extent based on fact, if and to the degree fact is ascertainable.

People thought Columbus was wrong too.
But even if he did not have every detail worked out, he was correct in postulating that you go east [Cathay] by going west.
In the end he was proven right.

Krav may or may not turn out to be a great player.
He may or may not turn out to be a bust!

But no one can say he is worth dramatically different from his 9OA draft value until he gets a legit chance, which he has not had.
That there has been such a gaffe by team mgmt can not in all fairness be held vs the player.

And again, the fact that Rangers can eventually create a roster spot, get him back, showcase then build his value, overrides any negative command from others to sell him cheap.

But that's the thing. You're offering up Kravstov and saying he's worth X. Detroit isn't asking for Kravstov. You want Seider, you have to sell what Detroit has interest in and not what you think Detroit should have interest in. I don't hate Kravstov the player. Hell, he might even turn out to be something great... but I'm not paying anywhere close to 9OA value for a guy who may or may not be anywhere close to that unless he's given a legit chance. I mean, if Detroit landed him, he'd probably be put on the 2nd or 3rd line (because he's not better than Larkin, Raymond, or Bertuzzi). So, his most likely deployment in Detroit would still not qualify in your eyes as a "legit chance".

I'm not stomping my feet demanding 9OA value for Michael Rasmussen. I would argue, using your definition, that he hasn't had a legitimate chance to show out on a line with really good players. But if I'm trying to trade for Alex Pietrangelo or something, I can't say "Oh, we took him 9th, he's worth 9th OA even though he's four years deep into his career and he's never eclipsed 30 points." Kravstov can rehab his value by continuing to play well in the KHL and making strides to come back to the NHL. Like what Radulov did. He came back and was worth a couple million dollar one year contract. Then, he played well and got a much longer deal.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Not gonna repeat myself, I answered your error in bold.
He established KHL record.
Here is what is current:
Rangers Prospect Watch: Zac Jones, Braden Schneider, and Vitali Kravtsov progressing | Yardbarker

Pertinent quote:
"Kravtsov, 21, is playing really well for Traktor in the KHL. In just eight games, he’s already picked up five goals to go with one assist."

KHL is arguably among if not best league in the world after NHL, way better than AHL.

Then why did Kravtsov suck so much in the AHL to go with his embarrassing display in the NHL? Why can’t a 9th overall pick make the NHL in his D+4?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

The bold refers to a comment I made about OP.
OP premise was if enough was on the table, anyone, including Seider, should be considered available.

I made a case for what I considered overpay with pieces I would consider moving and DET base did not want those pieces.
There can be an honest effort to attempt to ascertain
1) to what extent what I am proposing is actually overpayment
and
2) to what extent is that sufficient [or not] for the target Seider

ob la di
ob la da
life goes on
bra

I did tell you that what you proposed is not an overpayment in any way, shape, or form, but I was told that I was wrong. Packaging a shit ton of assets together does not a good deal make. Mo Seider is on the short list of Calder contenders right now and it looks real. It doesn't look like he or Raymond are really even playing at a completely unsustainable pace. They're turning and burning, but they're just making good safe plays most of the time.

An honest effort wouldn't be droning on about how Kravstov has 9OA value because he doesn't. If he did, the Rangers wouldn't have said "Hey, Vitali, you can go shop your services around the league". They did that so he could see that he's not as good or valued as he thinks that he is. An honest effort wouldn't be comparing an AHL defenseman to the reigning Norris winner (on your own team) to pump up his value because "hey, he could be like Adam Fox, guys!". Hell, an honest value wouldn't be saying "we can get a 1st for him as a rental, so he's worth a 1st to you." You're not interested in honest efforts, bern.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

No one has to agree; I am right or wrong on merit to extent based on fact, if and to the degree fact is ascertainable.

People thought Columbus was wrong too.
But even if he did not have every detail worked out, he was correct in postulating that you go east [Cathay] by going west.
In the end he was proven right.

Krav may or may not turn out to be a great player.
He may or may not turn out to be a bust!

But no one can say he is worth dramatically different from his 9OA draft value until he gets a legit chance, which he has not had.
That there has been such a gaffe by team mgmt can not in all fairness be held vs the player.

And again, the fact that Rangers can eventually create a roster spot, get him back, showcase then build his value, overrides any negative command from others to sell him cheap.

Also this being the case, the Rangers HAVE to do that. You can't just say they could and that makes him worth 9OA. If they do that and he proves it out, then he's recouped his value and you can get that price for him. But he has to be brought back and show out for this argument to make any f***ing sense.