Confirmed Signing with Link: [DET] F Lucas Raymond re-signs with the Red Wings (8 years, $8.075M AAV)

[TCNorthstars]

2/3 of their best players/top paid cap investments are Wingers though.

Until Seider signs...

 

[biturbo19]

Until Seider signs...

Fair. I should've said Forwards.

I think defensively, they're in a bit of a holding pattern until we find out what Edvinsson and others actually are at the NHL level.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

2/3 of their best players/top paid cap investments are Wingers though. That was always sort of going to be the case with Raymond. But there's a huge amount riding on the development of some of these young Centers who don't project as "stars".

Because yeah...i'd agree, Montreal is an example of what happens when you get overly invested in the Wingers...even when they're good ones, it's hard to see a perennial contender emerging if they don't rebalance that toward the Center ice position somehow.

It's not impossible to compete that way, but it makes things a lot tougher and a lot less reliable. I think Vegas pre-Eichel showed it's possible, but had a ton of unique advantages and cycled through a heck of a lot of players to get there, and didn't really take that extra last step until they rebalanced toward the Center ice investment. Boston are certainly trying to prove that it's possible as well, though again...they were stronger when anchored down the middle. Heck even Utah/Yotes have some phenomenal wingers, but without that strength down the middle...where's it going?

Detroit are potentially safe in that they do have draft investment in Centers. How many of them actually end up there long-term, remains to be seen. But if a couple of them pan out...they could be in fine shape until they have to pay the "Center Premium" on cap value on those guys as well.


It's not that this Raymond deal isn't good value. It's just...unless he's a Kucherov/Kane/et al level talent, i'm wary of huge investment in wingers. Though even then, guys like Boeser are probably going to start getting $8M deals soon. Heck, apparently Guentzel is a a $9M player (different circumstances as a UFA, but still...). So maybe it really isn't even as big an investment as it looks at first glance. If the cap keeps trending the way some teams seem to think it will.

Not really much point in saying 2/3rds of their big investments are wingers when Seider's gonna change that in a matter of days.

Debrincat only getting four years when he wanted eight should tell you Yzerman doesn't consider him a core player. The only major player Detroit may need to extend while that Debrincat contract is on the books is Edvinsson. Realistically, their draft capital is centered around:

Edvinsson (D)
Cossa (G)
Kasper (C)
Danielson (C)
ASP (D)
MBN (W)

They're still not really winger focused. They can just afford to spend $16M on two wingers right now because so much of their future is on ELCs for the near future.

 

[biturbo19]

Not really much point in saying 2/3rds of their big investments are wingers when Seider's gonna change that in a matter of days.

Debrincat only getting four years when he wanted eight should tell you Yzerman doesn't consider him a core player. The only major player Detroit may need to extend while that Debrincat contract is on the books is Edvinsson. Realistically, their draft capital is centered around:

Edvinsson (D)
Cossa (G)
Kasper (C)
Danielson (C)
ASP (D)
MBN (W)

They're still not really winger focused. They can just afford to spend $16M on two wingers right now because so much of their future is on ELCs for the near future.

Yeah, i should've said 2/3 of their Forwards investment. Defence is kind of separate thing...where it's also kind of messy, but there's a lot of sorting out to do with young guys hopefully percolating through for them.


But up front, it's still kind of teetering on the brink of winger heavy. Really contingent on what Kasper and Danielson pan out as. Where...if they pan out more or less as expected, it does still seem like it's fairly winger-centric in terms of driving play. Though if they both pan out, Larkin-Danielson-Kasper down the middle is obviously deep (plus the various other significant contracts handed out to veteran C/W guys like Compher, Copp). It's still really leaning on the wings to provide that "star power" elite creative offensive talent.

Raymond just a part of that, Cat may be a part of it or not, long-term. But it has the makings of a roster that is committed to "good, not great" Centers and counting on driving offensive play from the Wings. Raymond contract is just kind of a further affirmation of what was already pretty clearly the direction anyway.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Yeah, i should've said 2/3 of their Forwards investment. Defence is kind of separate thing...where it's also kind of messy, but there's a lot of sorting out to do with young guys hopefully percolating through for them.


But up front, it's still kind of teetering on the brink of winger heavy. Really contingent on what Kasper and Danielson pan out as. Where...if they pan out more or less as expected, it does still seem like it's fairly winger-centric in terms of driving play. Though if they both pan out, Larkin-Danielson-Kasper down the middle is obviously deep (plus the various other significant contracts handed out to veteran C/W guys like Compher, Copp). It's still really leaning on the wings to provide that "star power" elite creative offensive talent.

Raymond just a part of that, Cat may be a part of it or not, long-term. But it has the makings of a roster that is committed to "good, not great" Centers and counting on driving offensive play from the Wings. Raymond contract is just kind of a further affirmation of what was already pretty clearly the direction anyway.

If the Red Wings become "Winger heavy" it'll be because there was a tragic misstep in Danielson and Kasper's development. Right now they're looking at probably having Larkin+Raymond+Seider for just over $25M for the next 7 years. They should be ecstatic about that.

MBN is probably the only one in the organization with the potential of getting "Raymond money" as a winger. Debrincat probably wont get that contract again in three years unless the likes of Edvinsson/Danielson aren't panning out and needing extensions.

 

[biturbo19]

If the Red Wings become "Winger heavy" it'll be because there was a tragic misstep in Danielson and Kasper's development. Right now they're looking at probably having Larkin+Raymond+Seider for just over $25M for the next 7 years. They should be ecstatic about that.

MBN is probably the only one in the organization with the potential of getting "Raymond money" as a winger. Debrincat probably wont get that contract again in three years unless the likes of Edvinsson/Danielson aren't panning out and needing extensions.

I don't think it would strictly require huge tragedy in Danielson and Kasper's development for that to happen. I like both of them a lot as prospects and i think they both project as really good two-way Middle-6 Centers at worst. But neither of them really projects as offensive "line drivers" to me. Which is where...if you're going to have Larkin-Danielson-Kasper down the middle, that's very solid, and you can build a good team around that. But it does still need more "superstar" or "elite offensive talent"...which is pretty much obligated to come from the Wings, including Raymond.


That just seems to be the model Steven is building towards. And the Raymond contract just entrenches that a little bit more. It's just another step of future commitment toward that concept.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I don't think it would strictly require huge tragedy in Danielson and Kasper's development for that to happen. I like both of them a lot as prospects and i think they both project as really good two-way Middle-6 Centers at worst. But neither of them really projects as offensive "line drivers" to me. Which is where...if you're going to have Larkin-Danielson-Kasper down the middle, that's very solid, and you can build a good team around that. But it does still need more "superstar" or "elite offensive talent"...which is pretty much obligated to come from the Wings, including Raymond.


That just seems to be the model Steven is building towards. And the Raymond contract just entrenches that a little bit more. It's just another step of future commitment toward that concept.

Don't think he's intentionally building toward it. I just don't think he's really had an elite offensive center available in the draft to target.

If Danielson can be a 70 point guy with elite two-way play, though, that's a fine tandem with Larkin.

Getting f***ed in the lottery has essentially forced Yzerman to build an STL type Cup contender rather than a Colorado type.

 

[13to40]

This isn't a steal of a contract lmao it's literally the market rate for this type of first time RFA winger.

I think it will be a steal in a few seasons with the cap to be on the rise.

I was maybe a just a tad too excited when I saw the news come in though lol…

Now I’m excited to see what Seider is signed for. If he comes in around the same AAV, then the wings have their top young stars at a team friendly rate for the next 8 years. Both will be in their prime at an 8M AAV which leaves money on the table for acquiring other valuable pieces to the team. Whether it be via free agency or hopefully signing some of the other prospects once they graduate to the big team…

 

[Petes2424]

You know the league has gone to shit when Mason Raymond gets a $64M contract!

My God, I still do it after 200 games too…

I don’t think I’ll ever not accidentally call him Mason.

 

[Ulysses31]

could b best player in draft, among front runners. good draft class tho. compared to stutzle n jarvis its a gr8 contrat for DRW IMO.

 

[Ulysses31]

You know the league has gone to shit when Mason Raymond gets a $64M contract!

honestly as a DRW fan anything less than 8x8 would be unfair to raymond, guy was great back half of season and dare i say a nylander/marner tier talent.

 

[biturbo19]

Don't think he's intentionally building toward it. I just don't think he's really had an elite offensive center available in the draft to target.

If Danielson can be a 70 point guy with elite two-way play, though, that's a fine tandem with Larkin.

Getting f***ed in the lottery has essentially forced Yzerman to build an STL type Cup contender rather than a Colorado type.

Yeah. I think it's absolutely Yzerman just trying to play the cards he's been dealt. Detroit really have ended up kind of screwed with where draft tiers fall off, where they fall in the lottery, and what Centers are available.

They've sort of been pushed into just building around guys like Danielson and Kasper who are great prospects, but that's the way the cards fell. But as much as i like Danielson, 70pts feels like a realistic "ceiling" for him, if everything goes right. Toward the extremely optimistic end of the realistic potential spectrum of outcomes. More likely somewhere in the solid two-way ~50pts Center range +/- 10 and the sort of player every team would love to have. Just...neither he nor Kasper project as real "gamebreakers" offensively.

So he's working with what he's had available.

Maybe try to exploit the devaluation of skilled wingers in the draft. It's risky, but who knows...maybe viable.

This Raymond deal is really just affirming that's the direction things are heading. And i'd call it wing heavy, or wing-centric. Skilled offense-driving wings around decent two-way centers. That's how it looks to me.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Like i said, i think it's certainly "fair value" already...with the potential to get even better. I'd even say that dollar value is like to age really well. And it's a fair point that Detroit needs "star power" or top-end offensive play drivers...wherever they can get them.

It's just...as a matter of team construction, it can be risky to invest heavy in the wings, unless they're absolute superstars.

Sort of the hand Yzerman has been dealt though. Raymond is a darn good player, and they've got a bunch of really promising Centers coming along who project as more, solid all around, "good, not great" in terms of becoming that offensive dynamo that really drives the bus (and they'll be on cheap deals for a while). So it has the potential to work out. It's just not a conventional model for success, or all that typical.

Though teams are also paying less creative play-driving Wingers just as much elsewhere. So it might even be a non-issue soon enough.

From the looks of it, Detroit's cap structure will be

Highest paid: #1C
Second highest paid: #1D
Third highest paid: #1W

Seems pretty ideal for the short term future. Larkin will eventually need replacing but they have a few years to try to find solutions to that.

 

[Indrid Cold]

From the looks of it, Detroit's cap structure will be

Highest paid: #1C
Second highest paid: #1D
Third highest paid: #1W

Seems pretty ideal for the short term future. Larkin will eventually need replacing but they have a few years to try to find solutions to that.

Whether or not someone believes in the 'superstar' effect, the Wings are ahead of the game as far as long-term cap implications are concerned. With the cap going up, many teams will continue to make stupid signings. The Wings will not be one of them.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Yeah. I think it's absolutely Yzerman just trying to play the cards he's been dealt. Detroit really have ended up kind of screwed with where draft tiers fall off, where they fall in the lottery, and what Centers are available.

They've sort of been pushed into just building around guys like Danielson and Kasper who are great prospects, but that's the way the cards fell. But as much as i like Danielson, 70pts feels like a realistic "ceiling" for him, if everything goes right. Toward the extremely optimistic end of the realistic potential spectrum of outcomes. More likely somewhere in the solid two-way ~50pts Center range +/- 10 and the sort of player every team would love to have. Just...neither he nor Kasper project as real "gamebreakers" offensively.

So he's working with what he's had available.

Maybe try to exploit the devaluation of skilled wingers in the draft. It's risky, but who knows...maybe viable.

This Raymond deal is really just affirming that's the direction things are heading. And i'd call it wing heavy, or wing-centric. Skilled offense-driving wings around decent two-way centers. That's how it looks to me.

Nah I think 70 is realistic for Danielson. He kinda exploded offensively once he got traded to Portland and didn't have to just be all defense.

 

[bert]

Seems like a fair deal for both sides. Nice signing, great player loved him since his incredible performance at the U 18's. He's got that it factor.

 

[Tetsuo]

Just want to say that this will be one of the best deals in the game if all goes well in a few years. We got 4 UFA years at what might be an extreme bargain for a potential top 10 wing.

And it's not like Lucas lost here either... he's getting heaps and gobs of money and a lot of security (including a MTC kicking in half way through) for the next 8 years, this is a win for him too.