Confirmed Signing with Link: [DET] D Moritz Seider re-signs with the Red Wings (7 years, $8.55M AAV)

[seafoam]

they're like the 6th best team in the Atlantic, the time is definitely not now

The time needs to be now otherwise they are just wasting away their core's best (and most affordable) years.

 

[Borlag]

To be honest, even as a Red WIng fan, I have to admit that their time frame is closing in fast and unless they get real progress in the prospects forcing their way into the roster, their frame will start closing in on some players. Larkin isn't getting any younger and we still don't have anyone to replace him with, once his play drops down to a level where he should drop down to 2nd line or lower. I have faith that at least 2 out of 5 good prospects that we have will pan out, but they're about a year behind in what they should be. We should have a center in the pipeline wetting his feet in the games, we should have at least one more defenseman pushing the veterans out this season on top of Edvinsson.

The longer it takes for those placeholder veterans to lose their jobs, the narrower the window of success will be as we simply can not expect to luck out in getting that surefire center prospect suddenly, especially when we didn't get it when we were legitimately bad. Being a middle of the road team, we just can't afford to stay that way for long if we want to succeed.

 

[TT1]

i specifically came into this thread to read what the advanced stats experts had to say, wasn't disappointed

 

[KJoe88]

To be honest, even as a Red WIng fan, I have to admit that their time frame is closing in fast and unless they get real progress in the prospects forcing their way into the roster, their frame will start closing in on some players. Larkin isn't getting any younger and we still don't have anyone to replace him with, once his play drops down to a level where he should drop down to 2nd line or lower. I have faith that at least 2 out of 5 good prospects that we have will pan out, but they're about a year behind in what they should be. We should have a center in the pipeline wetting his feet in the games, we should have at least one more defenseman pushing the veterans out this season on top of Edvinsson.

The longer it takes for those placeholder veterans to lose their jobs, the narrower the window of success will be as we simply can not expect to luck out in getting that surefire center prospect suddenly, especially when we didn't get it when we were legitimately bad. Being a middle of the road team, we just can't afford to stay that way for long if we want to succeed.

WTF?! Their window hasn’t even opened yet. Because the rebuild is still going depending on what they do this year.

Like… what.

 

[Alex Jones]

they're like the 6th best team in the Atlantic, the time is definitely not now

The biggest issue with the Red Wings is that it's not at all clear when their time will be.

I think this is a good deal I still like Seider a lot as a player. For me the best part of it is that it takes him to 30. For a guy with his playstyle and lack of high end mobility that's right about the time he'll probably start to see a hard decline, would guess his next contract is a lot cheaper. Worst thing to do IMO on these types of players is sign them to like 27 or 28 while they are still at their best and then suddenly you're screwed when their play starts declining.

 

[Pavels Dog]

The biggest issue with the Red Wings is that it's not at all clear when their time will be.

It's abundandly obvious when their time will be. Listen to the winged wheel podcast episode about Seider signing if you want a good breakdown. The simplified version is that the team is 2-3 years away from being in a really excellent position. That's when enough bad contracts will be gone and enough young players should have grown into players.

Larkin isn't getting any younger and we still don't have anyone to replace him with, once his play drops down to a level where he should drop down to 2nd line or lower.

Larkin is 28, not 34. Even a pessimistic outlook of how he can age probably gives us 4-5 years to find a replacement. Not easy, but also nothing to panic about right now.

A problem throughout this discussion is that "just watch the guy play" isn't that compelling of an argument coming from biased observers. I think most have been willing to admit that Seider's analytics don't tell the whole story. But Red Wings fans insisting on their eye test (that so happens to confirm their priors) isn't really that helpful.

Most here seem happy to say this is a fair deal, myself included. But there are legitimate concerns about the player too.

It's tinfoil hat conspiracy nut stuff to claim everyone who watches him is biased. It's one step away from saying Big Eishockey is paying people to spread propaganda about Seider.

Every fanbase is biased, but fans are also generally the people who are most critical of their own team's players when it's warranted. There are reasons we debated for years whether Dylan Larkin was a #1C, but no such debates are happening with Seider.

As an aside to the analytical argument I always have to ask; do you truly believe Olli Määttä is one of the NHLs best d-men? And how is it possible Detroit wins any games when most of their roster has bad analytics?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

The 1st percentile exit possession rate certainly matches what the eyes see

Aren't you the guy who said Alex Tuch was better than Dylan Larkin?

 

[Indrid Cold]

It's abundandly obvious when their time will be. Listen to the winged wheel podcast episode about Seider signing if you want a good breakdown. The simplified version is that the team is 2-3 years away from being in a really excellent position. That's when enough bad contracts will be gone and enough young players should have grown into players.


Larkin is 28, not 34. Even a pessimistic outlook of how he can age probably gives us 4-5 years to find a replacement. Not easy, but also nothing to panic about right now.


It's tinfoil hat conspiracy nut stuff to claim everyone who watches him is biased. It's one step away from saying Big Eishockey is paying people to spread propaganda about Seider.

Every fanbase is biased, but fans are also generally the people who are most critical of their own team's players when it's warranted. There are reasons we debated for years whether Dylan Larkin was a #1C, but no such debates are happening with Seider.

As an aside to the analytical argument I always have to ask; do you truly believe Olli Määttä is one of the NHLs best d-men? And how is it possible Detroit wins any games when most of their roster has bad analytics?

The Wings need to win the cap battle, and so far, they're doing that. Arguable bargain deals for the core, and not wasting long term cap space on garbage. So far, so good. If and when the cap takes a leap, how many teams are going to blow it with dumb signings? The Wings absolutely have to be ahead of the cap game.

 

[Tetsuo]

To be honest, even as a Red WIng fan, I have to admit that their time frame is closing in fast and unless they get real progress in the prospects forcing their way into the roster, their frame will start closing in on some players. Larkin isn't getting any younger and we still don't have anyone to replace him with, once his play drops down to a level where he should drop down to 2nd line or lower. I have faith that at least 2 out of 5 good prospects that we have will pan out, but they're about a year behind in what they should be. We should have a center in the pipeline wetting his feet in the games, we should have at least one more defenseman pushing the veterans out this season on top of Edvinsson.

The longer it takes for those placeholder veterans to lose their jobs, the narrower the window of success will be as we simply can not expect to luck out in getting that surefire center prospect suddenly, especially when we didn't get it when we were legitimately bad. Being a middle of the road team, we just can't afford to stay that way for long if we want to succeed.

Our window isn't open yet. There's a chance the window does not open, aka rebuilding the rebuild, which is what you're speaking to, but when people are talking about 'windows' they are speaking about chances to win a Cup. We are entering our playoff window, where will we be in the mix for a wild card spot, but we are at least 2-3 years out from actually being a threat to go far in a playoffs.

We have to see what Ed, Berg, Danielson, Kasper, Mazur and Cossa (and whoever else) can do over the next two plus years before we can even talk about a 'window' being opened.

The biggest issue with the Red Wings is that it's not at all clear when their time will be.

I think this is a good deal I still like Seider a lot as a player. For me the best part of it is that it takes him to 30. For a guy with his playstyle and lack of high end mobility that's right about the time he'll probably start to see a hard decline, would guess his next contract is a lot cheaper. Worst thing to do IMO on these types of players is sign them to like 27 or 28 while they are still at their best and then suddenly you're screwed when their play starts declining.

You know Mo is a really good skater right? He's not Makar (then again who is?) but he does not have a weakness in terms of his skating.

 

[Aladyyn]

Aren't you the guy who said Alex Tuch was better than Dylan Larkin?

What a completed pass out of the defensive zone by Moritz Seider

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

What a completed pass out of the defensive zone by Moritz Seider

Weird how Detroit has all these inferior players and still finishes ahead of Buffalo.

Also, since you elected not to answer the question, (I wonder why) here's where you said Tuch (And recent buyout Jeff Skinner!) were better than Larkin.

That's amusing to say the very least. Riding the Tage wave does not magically make Tuch or Skinner better than Larkin.

Yeah but them being better hockey players than Larkin does make them better than Larkin

As well as another hot take on Lucas Raymond:

I've already talked about Larkin, and Raymond is awful, definitely not looking good for him

I'm thinking maybe you should just stop talking about Detroit players. Not going well for you.

 

[Borlag]

Our window isn't open yet. There's a chance the window does not open, aka rebuilding the rebuild, which is what you're speaking to, but when people are talking about 'windows' they are speaking about chances to win a Cup. We are entering our playoff window, where will we be in the mix for a wild card spot, but we are at least 2-3 years out from actually being a threat to go far in a playoffs.

That's exactly what I'm thinking. They're past the point of being able to get high picks and sitting very comfortably in the middle of the pack. I have no doubts that they will be able to push to playoffs with the current core, but in terms of contending they're missing vital pieces. The defense is one of the worst in the league, and that's even assuming that Edvinsson can step up and be a solid middle pairing guy right off the bat. If he can't, it's looking even worse. Sure he looked good at the end of last season, but it's still too optimistic to say that there wont be growing pains.. Heck, there's even doubters for Seider, with people claiming he's just another Rasmus Ristolainen (he's not).

Our center depth is amongst the worst as well and no matter how good I feel about some of our prospects, I don't see a center there that would be comfortable starting in the 2nd line already. 3rd liners? Sure, but that's more of the same and as such would only result in status quo.

For all the fans talking about how their window is starting in 2-3 years, they're missing that right now it's just as likely that it wont even open unless someone steps up big time. The way I see it is that within our prospect pool, it is safe to assume that Sandin-Pellikka wont see more than a handful games in the next 2 years, Wallinder and Johansson will likely get some replacement level games, but very unlikely that either would make a real difference. If lucky, one of them could click and give us a working third pairing, but beyond that it's highly unlikely. Kasper I actually like and do think that if all goes well, he will be a serviceable 2nd liner.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Weird how Detroit has all these inferior players and still finishes ahead of Buffalo.

Also, since you elected not to answer the question, (I wonder why) here's where you said Tuch (And recent buyout Jeff Skinner!) were better than Larkin.




As well as another hot take on Lucas Raymond:



I'm thinking maybe you should just stop talking about Detroit players. Not going well for you.

Lmfao this is so embarrassing. It’s incredible to me how some people let their allegiances to these corporate entities blind their ability to assess talent.