Despite major challanges, Kyle Dubas has passed the tests

[c9777666]

not so great trades.

Kadri
Marchment
Foligno
Murray
Marleau

Best trade - McCann

marchment was a one year wonder

 

[AllHeartNoSkill]

marchment was a one year wonder

They traded him for a zero year wonder.

 

[DueDiligence]

Dubas made a bold move by signing Tavares then giving his big 3 forwards large contracts. Since then he has done tweaks to the roster. But 4 years later without any playoff success he seems intent on doubling down on those moves of 4 years ago and fitting the moves around them. Basically doing the same thing year after year but expecting a different result.

 

[NewEraGM]

Austin Matthews for Logan Cooley + Arizona 1st 2023 + Chychrun

Take the extra (5-6M and sign a defenseman)

 

[Gary Nylund]

Wow man are you ok? Once again, if you want to argue about the legitimacy of vegas odd makers you are more than welcome to start a thread specifically for that topic but this thread is about Dubas and his utter failure as a GM. Also trying to pull a precise percentage about the odds of the leafs winning the cup out of my ass is what we call a losers race, so have fun running with that.

All I did was list the odds, why does that upset you so much? As far as "precise percentage" goes, I also stated that it's not an exact science, did you miss that part?

I just said that I agree with their listed top contenders - COL on top with TOR, CAR, FLA and TB being in the next tier. Not sure why this upsets some of you and it's pretty telling that y'all just whine about it but when challenged to say who you think the top contenders are if the bookies got it wrong, you have no answer. Sounds like you know perfectly well that those are the best teams, you just can't bring yourself to admit it for some strange reason.

If you want to question the legitimacy of vegas odd makers you are more than welcome to start a thread specifically for that topic, or you can discuss it here if you like. Seems pretty strange to question this though, you do realize that sportsbooks are basically a licence to print money. In very broad terms, you could say their profit margin is about 5% so that's their margin of error. Nobody can say precisely what the odds are but I think it's reasonable that the lines they post are almost always within that 5% margin of error.

You already answered your question I guess. So why are you so bothered that someone criticizes the team? The crystal ball, Steve dangle, Mike from Buffalo, and the Vegas odds makers back your arguments. Don't get so bent out of shape about a difference of opinion.

LOL, you're funny. People criticize the team every day, hell I'm one of them. It's not all bad though and the fact remains that we have one of the best teams in the league and despite our miserable playoff history, we are still one of the top contenders. Why does this bother you so much?

Dubas made a bold move by signing Tavares then giving his big 3 forwards large contracts. Since then he has done tweaks to the roster. But 4 years later without any playoff success he seems intent on doubling down on those moves of 4 years ago and fitting the moves around them. Basically doing the same thing year after year but expecting a different result.

Keeping the core intact and tweaking the rest of the roster is what most teams do and when they finally break through and win the cup, doing the same thing year after year and getting a different result is exactly what happens.

Not saying they shouldn't consider making a major change, just that keeping the core intact is not guaranteed to fail either.

 

[Americanadian]

Keeping the core intact and tweaking the rest of the roster is what most teams do and when they finally break through and win the cup, doing the same thing year after year and getting a different result is exactly what happens.

Not saying they shouldn't consider making a major change, just that keeping the core intact is not guaranteed to fail either.

The issue with the current roster is that no one has ever won the cup while allocating as much money to 4 forwards as the Leafs are. Teams that hang with the same core and eventually push through are able to augment their core with good players, which the Leafs are not. The Leafs middle class up front is 1 deep - Kerfoot.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

All I did was list the odds, why does that upset you so much? As far as "precise percentage" goes, I also stated that it's not an exact science, did you miss that part?

I just said that I agree with their listed top contenders - COL on top with TOR, CAR, FLA and TB being in the next tier. Not sure why this upsets some of you and it's pretty telling that y'all just whine about it but when challenged to say who you think the top contenders are if the bookies got it wrong, you have no answer. Sounds like you know perfectly well that those are the best teams, you just can't bring yourself to admit it for some strange reason.

If you want to question the legitimacy of vegas odd makers you are more than welcome to start a thread specifically for that topic, or you can discuss it here if you like. Seems pretty strange to question this though, you do realize that sportsbooks are basically a licence to print money. In very broad terms, you could say their profit margin is about 5% so that's their margin of error. Nobody can say precisely what the odds are but I think it's reasonable that the lines they post are almost always within that 5% margin of error.


LOL, you're funny. People criticize the team every day, hell I'm one of them. It's not all bad though and the fact remains that we have one of the best teams in the league and despite our miserable playoff history, we are still one of the top contenders. Why does this bother you so much?


Keeping the core intact and tweaking the rest of the roster is what most teams do and when they finally break through and win the cup, doing the same thing year after year and getting a different result is exactly what happens.

Not saying they shouldn't consider making a major change, just that keeping the core intact is not guaranteed to fail either.

The playoff futility bothers me. We can't at all talk about Toronto as a "good team". They dont win in the playoffs and there's no defense for that. They've set the bar so low that a playoff series win will be epic. That's terrible. A cup is what they should be after.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The issue with the current roster is that no one has ever won the cup while allocating as much money to 4 forwards as the Leafs are. Teams that hang with the same core and eventually push through are able to augment their core with good players, which the Leafs are not. The Leafs middle class up front is 1 deep - Kerfoot.

There is no 1 magic formula to build a winner.

Our supporting cast isn't so bad. Last season we had 7 players hit 50 points and 15 players with over 20 points, not sure how many teams can say that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The issue with the current roster is that no one has ever won the cup while allocating as much money to 4 forwards as the Leafs are.

Because the cap is a relatively newer thing, having 4 forwards worth allocating that money to is an extremely rare situation to find yourself in, and anybody in that situation in the past would have been out of that situation quickly with the rapidly rising cap throughout the cap era. It really doesn't say anything about the possibility of winning the cup that way, especially in an entirely different league-wide cap environment. Cups have been won is drastically different ways, with tons of different playstyles and cap constructions. You could find a random, unique fact about any cup winner, but that didn't prevent them from winning.

 

[DarkKnight]

he seemed sad, tired, drained, weak

No fire at all.

 

[Americanadian]

There is no 1 magic formula to build a winner.

Our supporting cast isn't so bad. Last season we had 7 players hit 50 points and 15 players with over 20 points, not sure how many teams can say that.

I'll agree that there is no magic formula but defending the Leafs, and Dubas' formula is wild to me considering where he has brought this team.

Blues, Avs, Panthers is what I can find from a cursory glance. Minnesota had 7 players pace 50+ points.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The playoff futility bothers me. We can't at all talk about Toronto as a "good team". They dont win in the playoffs and there's no defense for that. They've set the bar so low that a playoff series win will be epic. That's terrible. A cup is what they should be after.

The playoff futility bothers me too. There a couple of posters who seems to unaffected by all these failures and I have them on ignore because the fact they're so damn annoying.

As far as "good team" goes, I guess we're arguing semantics here. I'm fine saying they're even a "very good" team but I think we need to have playoff success before calling them "elite" like some people do. But like I said, it's just semantics so maybe neither one of us should be upset. Good regular season team but so far they're the masters of under-achievement in the playoffs, I think most people could agree with that.

I agree the cup is what we should be after and a series win would only seem like a big deal because we haven't done it in so long.

This could still go either way. If we keep failing in the playoffs and finally Matthews leaves, Dubas is fired, the next GM moves more core pieces and we rebuild, this will go down as one of the biggest under-achieving failures in NA sports history. But it's not over yet, that's all I'm saying. We could still turn it around, we are one of the top contenders to win the cup and if you think it can't happen, you're making a mistake.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'll agree that there is no magic formula but defending the Leafs, and Dubas' formula is wild to me considering where he has brought this team.

Blues, Avs, Panthers is what I can find from a cursory glance. Minnesota had 7 players pace 50+ points.

I'm not even sure I'm "defending the formula", I thought we should at least explore the possibility of trading Marner after we lost to MTL in the playoffs, I think we should consider trading Nylander now if we're not confident of him resigning here and I'd really be open to trading anyone at this point. I'm just saying that if we do keep the top 4 forwards, it's not a sure thing that it won't (finally) work, that's all. Hell it almost worked this season, we came so close to beating TB who absolutely was and is an elite team.

 

[Americanadian]

I'm not even sure I'm "defending the formula", I thought we should at least explore the possibility of trading Marner after we lost to MTL in the playoffs, I think we should consider trading Nylander now if we're not confident of him resigning here and I'd really be open to trading anyone at this point. I'm just saying that if we do keep the top 4 forwards, it's not a sure thing that it won't (finally) work, that's all. Hell it almost worked this season, we came so close to beating TB who absolutely was and is an elite team.

I appreciate your opinion on moving the players. I wanted Marner gone last season as well. The team is full of almost’s which at this point I personally don’t feel confident in giving them the benefit of the doubt. No matter what team they play they give just enough to make it close and not enough to win.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I appreciate your opinion on moving the players. I wanted Marner gone last season as well. The team is full of almost’s which at this point I personally don’t feel confident in giving them the benefit of the doubt. No matter what team they play they give just enough to make it close and not enough to win.

IMHO they absolutely don't deserve the benefit of doubt, agree 100%. Had Dubas been fired last summer, it would have been hard to disagree with that but after the amazing regular season we had and playing our best playoff series in almost 20 years (yes we still lost, I know), it would be harder to justify. I feel like this is their last shot though, lose in the 1st round again and I think Dubas is gone.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Signing Matthews to a 5 year term so he can head to free agency early; unlike Eichel & McDavid who signed 8 year deals. He should have been looking at a deal similar to Eichel got at 8 year x 10M deal.

Signing Marner for 10.93M when his closest comp in Rantanen signed for 9.25M. Other comps were Aho 8.46M (and that's with an offer sheet) and Draisaitl 8.5M.

These deals absolutely robbed us of any chance of having quality depth.

Giving up a 1st rounder to unload Marleau and not protecting the pick as a result of not having any cap room after handing out the Matthews and Marner deals? That pick turned into a 12th overall. Teams put conditions on picks all the time for a reason - stuff happens.

Trading Kadri for a poor return? The key piece was Barrie but we already had a PP QB in Rielly.

Trading a 1st rounder for a washed up Foligno well Hall & Bennett went for far less?

Hiring a coach who is learning on the job that has been outclassed two playoffs in a row? How he failed to adjust a dreadful PP for almost half a season and then shockingly having this bite us in the butt against the Habs is 100% a fireable offence imo.

Having his two big off-season deal in Mrazek & Ritchie both look dreadful and need to give up assets to unload them?

Now this off-season we have the Murray trade. The same Murray that was talked about as a buyout candidate. The same Murray that Ottawa had a deal in place to trade him 25% retained with 7th overall for 16th overall. All we got was a 3rd rounder & 7th rounder.

Dubas has done some good work with the amateur draft (with the few picks he didn't trade) but he has made some major errors with his pro scouting, some major errors in trades and those Marner/Matthews deals were just awful.

Imagine where this team would be if it didn't have the advantage of being in the biggest city in Canada and players wanting to play in their hometown ala Speeza, Brodie, Bunting, Gio.

 

[DarkKnight]

I’m asking this seriously, because it’s just an observation, not trying to be negative here just for its own sake. Does Dubas seem to have lost a bit of his fire or conviction this off season when speaking? He’s so assured and a great orator, very good at descriptors and extrapolating ideas, but he’s leaving me flat as a pancake of late and there’s an air of nervousness or the same confidence isn’t there. He seems slightly shaken or unsure, which I’ve never ever felt watching him. No biggie on that score, but I did notice it.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

I’m asking this seriously, because it’s just an observation, not trying to be negative here just for its own sake. Does Dubas seem to have lost a bit of his fire or conviction this off season when speaking? He’s so assured and a great orator, very good at descriptors and extrapolating ideas, but he’s leaving me flat as a pancake of late and there’s an air of nervousness or the same confidence isn’t there. He seems slightly shaken or unsure, which I’ve never ever felt watching him. No biggie on that score, but I did notice it.

My source says he seemed sad, tired, drained, weak

 

[DarkKnight]

My source says he seemed sad, tired, drained, weak

 

[Trapper]

I'm not even sure I'm "defending the formula", I thought we should at least explore the possibility of trading Marner after we lost to MTL in the playoffs, I think we should consider trading Nylander now if we're not confident of him resigning here and I'd really be open to trading anyone at this point. I'm just saying that if we do keep the top 4 forwards, it's not a sure thing that it won't (finally) work, that's all. Hell it almost worked this season, we came so close to beating TB who absolutely was and is an elite team.

Nylander is fine at his current salary but I do not want to pay him more. And certainly not in the 9 range. Learn from Calgary losing a player for nothing.
I would be looking for a core center in return to lock up for 6 x 6. Then you pay Matthews whatever and 1 more year of JT.
Matthews (whatever salary x 8)
New core center (6 x6)
Marner ? Salary
That’s your core 3 forward

Add a long term D with Rielly and keep searching for a long term goalie solution to lock up. The core 3 on the back end.
Now you have your 6 core and balance to keep surrounding.
Draft and develop. Look for key UFA signings that fill out that 3.5/4 million support level.
If the cap rises in 3 years, you are ready and positioned for success.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Signing Matthews to a 5 year term so he can head to free agency early; unlike Eichel & McDavid who signed 8 year deals. He should have been looking at a deal similar to Eichel got at 8 year x 10M deal.

Signing Marner for 10.93M when his closest comp in Rantanen signed for 9.25M. Other comps were Aho 8.46M (and that's with an offer sheet) and Draisaitl 8.5M.

These deals absolutely robbed us of any chance of having quality depth.

Giving up a 1st rounder to unload Marleau and not protecting the pick as a result of not having any cap room after handing out the Matthews and Marner deals? That pick turned into a 12th overall. Teams put conditions on picks all the time for a reason - stuff happens.

Trading Kadri for a poor return? The key piece was Barrie but we already had a PP QB in Rielly.

Trading a 1st rounder for a washed up Foligno well Hall & Bennett went for far less?

Hiring a coach who is learning on the job that has been outclassed two playoffs in a row? How he failed to adjust a dreadful PP for almost half a season and then shockingly having this bite us in the butt against the Habs is 100% a fireable offence imo.

Having his two big off-season deal in Mrazek & Ritchie both look dreadful and need to give up assets to unload them?

Now this off-season we have the Murray trade. The same Murray that was talked about as a buyout candidate. The same Murray that Ottawa had a deal in place to trade him 25% retained with 7th overall for 16th overall. All we got was a 3rd rounder & 7th rounder.

Dubas has done some good work with the amateur draft (with the few picks he didn't trade) but he has made some major errors with his pro scouting, some major errors in trades and those Marner/Matthews deals were just awful.

Imagine where this team would be if it didn't have the advantage of being in the biggest city in Canada and players wanting to play in their hometown ala Speeza, Brodie, Bunting, Gio.

Well said

 

[ToneDog]

Nylander is fine at his current salary but I do not want to pay him more. And certainly not in the 9 range. Learn from Calgary losing a player for nothing.
I would be looking for a core center in return to lock up for 6 x 6. Then you pay Matthews whatever and 1 more year of JT.
Matthews (whatever salary x 8)
New core center (6 x6)
Marner ? Salary
That’s your core 3 forward

Add a long term D with Rielly and keep searching for a long term goalie solution to lock up. The core 3 on the back end.
Now you have your 6 core and balance to keep surrounding.
Draft and develop. Look for key UFA signings that fill out that 3.5/4 million support level.
If the cap rises in 3 years, you are ready and positioned for success.

You are on my short list for the next GM of the Leafs.

 

[Trapper]

You are on my short list for the next GM of the Leafs.

As I’ve said if we don’t prepare now we will be sorry.
People laugh at Tampa but that is exactly what they have just done.
Locked up several guys (Cernak RD, Serg LD, Cirelli 2C) for the next 8 years.

Now “if” the cap is rising, these guys are frozen now and won’t change.
As usual, the Leafs are set to end in 3, not prepared now. A day late and dollar short as usual. Prepare now. Muzzin and Nylander should be on the move.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

Nylander is fine at his current salary but I do not want to pay him more. And certainly not in the 9 range. Learn from Calgary losing a player for nothing.
I would be looking for a core center in return to lock up for 6 x 6. Then you pay Matthews whatever and 1 more year of JT.
Matthews (whatever salary x 8)
New core center (6 x6)
Marner ? Salary
That’s your core 3 forward

Add a long term D with Rielly and keep searching for a long term goalie solution to lock up. The core 3 on the back end.
Now you have your 6 core and balance to keep surrounding.
Draft and develop. Look for key UFA signings that fill out that 3.5/4 million support level.
If the cap rises in 3 years, you are ready and positioned for success.

I like the idea in general, but looking around at the contracts being signed this offseason, what good centre are you going to get for 6 mil?

I understand you would ideally want an RFA or whatever, but look at what guys like Norris are signing for - makes me nervous about where salaries for good players are headed especially with the cap increases that will be coming down the pipe in a year or two.

Was there a center that signed for 6 or less this offseason (RFA or UFA) you would have traded for Willy? Just curious.

I dunno.

 

[Gabriel426]

I like the idea in general, but looking around at the contracts being signed this offseason, what good centre are you going to get for 6 mil?

I understand you would ideally want an RFA or whatever, but look at what guys like Norris are signing for - makes me nervous about where salaries for good players are headed especially with the cap increases that will be coming down the pipe in a year or two.

Was there a center that signed for 6 or less this offseason (RFA or UFA) you would have traded for Willy? Just curious.

I dunno.

For starter, Cirelli and Trochek were signed for around 6mil.
Then there is a trade route that you can use to acquire a 2C with Willie.

I think the core is staying at least for another year. Then you look at the current team and prospects coming up, Keefe needs to start planning his lineup. Should he still play AM and MM together instead of splitting them up in order to have more balance scoring in the top three lines? Should Willie be try as a C in the pre season and the first 10 games of the season? Do all the players understand that playoffs matters more than regular season and the regular season is really a 82 games pre season to prepare for the playoffs, thus personal stats don’t matter? Where to plug in Anderson, Robertson, Holmberg and others?

If Keefe comes back with essentially the same lineup next season like Bunting-AM-MM, Kerfoot-JT-Willie, Engvall-Kampf-Malgin, the 4th line, and expect them to make a difference comes playoffs, chances are unless Murray plays like he did when he won Cups or Samsonov become Vas 2.0, it will be hard for the Leafs to move past the first round.