Recalled/Assigned: Dermott to the Leafs Marincin back to the Marlies

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Almost all metrics will show Polak, Hansey, Zaitsev suck. I can manipulate the stats to show Hainsey is one of the worst d.men in the league

Until Zone Starts are factored in. But many will only take something like that into consideration when it suits their existing opinion on a player.

 

[saltming]

So would he be like pizza good or mac and cheese good? A pogo maybe?

Oh turning this to a philosophical debate eh?
Then it depends on the personal preference and the degrees therein.
For me I'm not a pogo guy so the debate would be between pizza and Mac and cheese

And thanks I will edit my original post

 

[Mr Hockey]

all situations CF% Rel on our 3 centers.

• 13.82 Bozak
• 7.02 Kadri
• 6.90 Matthews

 

[Guy Boucher]

Carrick is only slightly better than Polak when it comes to differential in penalties taken vs drawn. Just like he’s only slightly better than Polak 5v5. Except Polak can kill penalties.

“But how can he PK when he’s always in the box LOLLLL!!!1!11”

Polak has taken 15 penalties in 24 games. Carrick has taken 8 in 24 games.
Polak has drawn 3 penalties. Carrick has drawn 1.

How does that make Carrick only *slightly* better in penalty differentials? Polak is -12 and Carrick is -7. That's a significant difference.

It says a lot when you can only support Polak by trying to skew reality so drastically.

 

[Trapper]

Oh turning this to a philosophical debate eh?
Then it depends on the personal preference and the degrees therein.
For me I'm not a pogo guy so the debate would be between pizza and Mac and cheese

And thanks I will edit my original post

LOL I kind of liked it that way.
If Babs is like a fine wine, we are just seeing the entrees before the main course.
Food channel/hockey show.

 

[MJ65]

So who is going to go down (or on waivers) once Zzzzz is back. I hope it's not Dermott as he deserved to be in this league and on Leafs roster

 

[Shanty]

So who is going to go down (or on waivers) once Zzzzz is back. I hope it's not Dermott as he deserved to be in this league and on Leafs roster

Due to his right-handedness, I think this may be the last we see of Carrick for a while...

 

[WTFMAN99]

Due to his right-handedness, I think this may be the last we see of Carrick for a while...

Borgman can go down if they care about asset management and not losing anyone.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Regardless of correlation with future results, it's well documented that defensemen have little to no impact on goalie save percentage (for or against), so to suggest they should be examined on goal metrics instead of shot metrics is... odd.

Just to add. The thing is that shot metrics have never had a great descriptive value. Obviously goal-based metrics have better correlation to winning since winning is directly derived from goals. What makes shot metrics valuable is that they are repeatable, and therefor have predictive value. Goal-based metrics and scoring chance-based metrics are not as repeatable.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Just to add. The thing is that shot metrics have never had a great descriptive value. Obviously goal-based metrics have better correlation to winning since winning is directly derived from goals. What makes shot metrics valuable is that they are repeatable, and therefor have predictive value. Goal-based metrics and scoring chance-based metrics are not as repeatable.

Didn't realize scoring chances are not as repeatable. Hadn't really read much about them in general, though. IIUC they're still considered shot-based metrics, though... right?

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Polak has taken 15 penalties in 24 games. Carrick has taken 8 in 24 games.
Polak has drawn 3 penalties. Carrick has drawn 1.

How does that make Carrick only *slightly* better in penalty differentials? Polak is -12 and Carrick is -7. That's a significant difference.

It says a lot when you can only support Polak by trying to skew reality so drastically.

Polak plays 33% more minutes than Carrick. When you crunch the numbers, it's not really that much of a difference:

Polak
Penalties Taken/60: 2.23
Penalties Drawn/60: 0.60
Pentalies +/-/60: 1.63

Carrick
Penalties Taken/60: 1.43
Penalties Drawn/60: 0.36
Pentalies +/-/60: 1.07

With their level of ice time that's 1 penalty more for Polak about every 8 games. That is very... um... SLIGHT.

 

[Kiwi]

I'm still waiting for the proof he's a liability 5v5
I see him make less mistakes than Carrick Marincin and even Gardiner
He is not as skilled as those players but he is good at his job
#gudpro

Have you watched him? And you still need proof he's a liability 5v5?

He doesn't make mistakes because he doesn't transition the puck and he doesn't have the puck much, he relys on his partners doing that for him

So of course he doesn't look like he's making mistakes if that's happening

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

It's a good night to give Dermott a look on the right. Playing at home against a team lacking offensive depth. Reilly/Hainsey gets matched against Panarin and Gardiner+Dermott can get sheltered offensive minutes.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Didn't realize scoring chances are not as repeatable. Hadn't really read much about them in general, though. IIUC they're still considered shot-based metrics, though... right?

Depends. You have the xGF stats and such, they are pretty good and are shot-based. But there have been attempts at pure scoring chance counting, and they haven't been as effective.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Depends. You have the xGF stats and such, they are pretty good and are shot-based. But there have been attempts at pure scoring chance counting, and they haven't been as effective.

Isn’t xGF built on top of scoring chance counting, split between HD/MD/LD-SC and league average save percentages for those types of SCs?

Meh, I just need to read up on it on my own at some point.

 

[cookie]

Don't shot based metrics focus on even strength play? If a team can be average 5v5 but exceptional in special teams, that makes them a winning team. Conversely, poor 5v5 play can be masked by exceptional special teams play and a good goalie. If I were to be describing the Leafs, it would fall somewhere in the middle...

 

[Nithoniniel]

Isn’t xGF built on top of scoring chance counting, split between HD/MD/LD-SC and league average save percentages for those types of SCs?

Meh, I just need to read up on it on my own at some point.

The difference is that xGF counts all shots, but values them differently based on certain factors. The other metrics I mentioned discount shots that are not of a sufficient quality to be called a scoring chance.

Sometimes looking at a subset is not as effective as looking at the whole picture but adjusting accordingly. Another example is how stats like 5v5 close isn't actually better than normal, but adjusting for score effects is really important.

 

[thewave]

From Polak in particular or for somebody in the bottom pairing position? I don’t expect a bottom pairing D man to be a game breaker, just provide stability in sheltered minutes.

My problems with Polak lie with his inability to do anything with the puck other than ice it, and how he continuously hands the opposition PPs.

He is a talentless big body hack. He is a hulk on ice that can't do anything at the NHL level. I am sure he would be a great AHLer though. He can't even really fight and has to take a penalty every game pretty much because he keeps getting exposed and left with no options.

 

[Bluelines]

Regardless of correlation with future results, it's well documented that defensemen have little to no impact on goalie save percentage (for or against), so to suggest they should be examined on goal metrics instead of shot metrics is... odd.

Defencemen have little to no affect on goalie save percentage, i hope you are kidding.

 

[Bluelines]

Almost all metrics will show Polak, Hansey, Zaitsev suck. I can manipulate the stats to show Hainsey is one of the worst d.men in the league

Good for you.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Good for you.

Defencemen have little to no affect on goalie save percentage, i hope you are kidding.

its consider fact in the hockey world, but im sure you know better

 

[Polaris1010]

Dermott, has been a pleasant surprise, probably best way to put it at the moment.

He is on the small side for a NHL defenseman.

But if he plays like Kadri, (and not like Martin Marincin!) ... he will have a career in the NHL.

Free Marty!

BTW, did anyone watch Coach's Corner Saturday Night?

Not often we see a hockey fight between a heavy weight and a feather weight. Those two Thorton and Kadri are among Grapes' favourite players.

Was he conflicted about what happened?

 

[Stephen]

I kind of want to say he's a meaner, smaller Morgan Rielly, sort of Mark Giordano-like in the way he likes exploding into bodies.

 

[IPS]

Gonna be so hilarious once Zaitsev is healthy and we send Dermott down and keep Polak up.

 

[saltming]

Have you watched him? And you still need proof he's a liability 5v5?

He doesn't make mistakes because he doesn't transition the puck and he doesn't have the puck much, he relys on his partners doing that for him

So of course he doesn't look like he's making mistakes if that's happening

But he's a point generating monster!!!

I don't think we will ever agree on polak. I don't think he is a skill player but he's a good grunt.
Next year if the Ozhiganov stories are true and Ozhiganov transitions well you may never have to endure another shift from him.