Let me ask you a simple question. What is Stepan worth to you and how long of a contract would you give him? In my opinion he gets 4 years 4-4.5 a year. If not more!!
First, it has nothing to do with what you or I think he's worth. Hockey is a business and his signing will be treated as such. The CBA gives Sather the leverage in this negotiation and he will use it.
Second, he absolutely won't get a 4 year deal. 4 years will take him right to the start of Group III free agency. Sather never gives out contracts like that. Most GMs don't. The contract will either end while Stepan is still an RFA, or it will buy 1 or more UFA years.
So lets add a year and make it 5 x 4.5 mil. Does that sound fair to you? Okay, now let's look at how that contract will be structured.
Year 1: 3 mil
Year 2: 3.75 mil
Year 3: 4.5 mil
Year 4: 5.25 mil
Year 5: 6 mil
Sather normally backloads RFA contracts. UFA years (year 5) cost more than arbitration years (years 2, 3 and 4). Arbitration years cost more than non-arbitration years (year 1). Look at the contracts Sather has given to RFAs. Most of them are backloaded.
Do you think that contract is fair?
Now imagine that Sather won't give him a five year deal. Instead he'll only give him 2 years.
Year 1: 3 mil
Year 2: 3.75 mil
Stepan still gets the same exact money he would have gotten, but his cap hit is lower.
It isn't a matter of how much money Sather will offer him. It's a matter of how many years. That is the driving force behind the cap hit. And because he needs to keep his cap hit low, he will offer him less years.
All the stats do is drive up the starting point, but that starting point isn't going to be 4 mil. It will very likely be under 3 mil.
Look at what Giroux got. He put up 76 points in 82 games. He got a 3 year deal:
Year 1: 2.75 mil
Year 2: 3.5 mil
Year 3: 5 mil
Stepan has 42 points in 47 games. You can prorate that if you want, but Sather won't. If Stepan gets the same contract, but for only 2 years, that will be a cap hit of 3.125 mil.
So now let me ask you a question. Given what Giroux got, and given the types of contracts Sather usually gives out, and given the need to keep the cap hit low, and given that Stepan has no leverage unless he signs an offer sheet, what makes you think that Sather will give him a long term deal?