Speculation: Derek Stepan Negotiations (9/19-Dreger: "Unlikely" Stepan signs before season opens)

[eco's bones]

Regular season Stepan outpointed Nash last year--even after getting off to a very slow start. Neither had a particularly good playoffs. Nash got some pk but wasn't really a regular. Stepan got lots of pk time. Stepan + 25 in 48 games and considering the Rangers goal differential last year those are fabulous numbers and speaks to his defensive awareness. Next best on the team was Nash at +16. Stepan is hugely important in the Rangers scheme of things. Their best center.

Already missing Callahan and Hagelin (both of whom fit into the top 6 forwards) for the start of the season--not having Stepan around is another reason why the Rangers should bend here. We're carrying too many NHL'ers anyway and there's a number of youngsters knocking on the door. Sather should be moving bodies and creating cap space. Stepan at $3.5 mil is not an unreasonable contract.

 

[RangerBoy]

Dubinsky had an eight day "holdout" in 2009. Its not really a "holdout" because the player doesn't have a contract. Darrelle Revis in 2010 was a holdout. He was a signed player but wanted a new contract which the Jets gave him. Eight days for Dubinsky.

Split the difference.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

According to Larry Brooks in the*NY Post, the Rangers and Derek Stepan are believed to be about $1 million apart in their negotiations for a new contract.Brooks says that Stepan is looking for $7 million over two years and that the Rangers have offered just under $6 million over two years.

 

[BBKers]

According to Larry Brooks in the*NY Post, the Rangers and Derek Stepan are believed to be about $1 million apart in their negotiations for a new contract.Brooks says that Stepan is looking for $7 million over two years and that the Rangers have offered just under $6 million over two years.

3,1-3,2
Just do it
He is not going to get Duchene money
More than Kadri

 

[bmw2004]

Why are they negotiating only two years contract?

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

because we don't have the cap for a long term deal

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

Stepan wants 7M, Rangers offering 6M. split the difference.. 6.5M.. 3.25 per year

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

Sure he could be fine missing camp, I could also win a million dollars tomorrow. The rest of us like realism.

You're too sensitive about how people go about disagreeing with opinions here and don't need to bring it up every time you post. This is the Internet, take a deep breath and relax

I don't think I'm too sensitive about it but you're free to think that. I would suggest your insult about not being realistic would show you are being waaaaaay too sensitive about a simple hypothetical based on evidence and past similar situations with other athuhletes that I posed. I have to assume based on you defaulting to insult mode that you loathe to agree that it's a valid opinion even if you have a differing one
I enjoy commenting on the ego and keyboard warrior mentality around here. I love dissecting fanaticism which is in abundance seeing as how this is sport and we are fans (The Kovalchuk thing was a dream discussion scenario for me) It's an interesting thing. No deep breathes are necassary. Some people have agreed with me, others have told me to sit and spin. It's all ok in the end because as you implied this isn't important.

I'm curious to look back but I think I've been assuming about 3 mil on a bridge. Have to think this'll be what he gets and yes I think he will be just fine even if he misses some camp. He may struggle initially but he's done that every year. He's smart and I have faith he's capable of figuring it out despite the obstacle of a new coach which I have already admitted may make this more difficult. Do you have comparable situations to discuss to prove your point? Perhaps other players who have held out or who were injured through camp and could not catch up in a reasonable amount of time?

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1498039&page=16 Read the last few pages here and tell me it's not fascinating and hilarious especially synergy's wtf comments in there. Poor guy

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Logan Couture got 2 years $2.875M/year (under a $74M cap no less) after a 82gp-31g-34a-65p season that was preceeded by a 79gp-32g-24a-56p season.

Kadri's deal was out of line with the comparables, neither Kadri nor Stepan should have gotten more than Couture.

Duchene got a lot, but he was the 3rd overall pick on a rebuilding team. Those contracts will cost more.

Stepan is a good young player on a contender, just like Couture. I don't see how $3M+ is fair.

Stepan needs to come down.

Im not quite sure why you would push the Couture deal from over a year ago, and then brush aside the contracts from this summer. Thats not quite how markets work.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

Im not quite sure why you would push the Couture deal from over a year ago, and then brush aside the contracts from this summer. Thats not quite how markets work.

Which ones? The Couture example is pretty good I think. It's not too old and each team may be prone to paying too much or too little so that's important to consider from this year. What were those teams like cap wise? A couple of other things like that have to be considered

 

[Ola]

Will something happen later this week?

Jim S pushed for scrimmages yesterday. Everyone play today/tomorrow. Player evaluation is hurried. The players aren't stupid, Brian Boyle is really selling himself.

We don't want to start the season without Stepan. A good start is so important. We are without Hags and Cally.

Slats is almost low-balling Step right now.

Is enough enough? Dumping Biron or Boyle/Pyatt would clear important dough.

I just get the sense that they are trying to speed up the process.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Im not quite sure why you would push the Couture deal from over a year ago, and then brush aside the contracts from this summer. Thats not quite how markets work.

Couture's deal was signed for the $70.2M cap, Stepan's deal is for a $64M cap. If anything Stepan should get less than Couture since the cap has gone down. Contracts from different points of time are compared as a ercentage of the salary cap at the time.

Couture: $2.875M / $70.4M = 4.08%

Duchene: $3.5M / $70.4M = 4.97%

Stepan: ~$3.25M / $64.3M = 5.05%

So $3.25M today is actually comparatively more than what Duchene got on his 2nd contract.

Toronto caved for Kadri and we have to pay the price it seems.

 

[Crease]

Similarly, I have a huge problem with using Giroux as a comparable. Not because they have different potentials, but because the Giroux contract was negotiated during a time when players were entitled to 57% of revenues. Pre-Lockout II contracts are not comparable. The cap will increase at a slower rate these days.

 

[GAGLine]

Similarly, I have a huge problem with using Giroux as a comparable. Not because they have different potentials, but because the Giroux contract was negotiated during a time when players were entitled to 57% of revenues. Pre-Lockout II contracts are not comparable. The cap will increase at a slower rate these days.

Regardless of the percentage, the actual salary cap ceiling was the same as it is this year, which is the only thing that matters. The amount of money that teams can spend on players is exactly the same.

The cap will increase at a slower rate, but I don't think it's a significant consideration. It's already being reported that the cap could go to 80 mil in 3 years.

57% of 3 billion is 1.71 billion.
50% of 3 billion is 1.5 billion.

If revenue increases by 10% to 3.3 billion

57% of 3.3 is 1.881 billion
50% of 3.3 is 1.65 billion

The difference in growth is only 21 million. Spread across 30 teams, that's not that much.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Regardless of the percentage, the actual salary cap ceiling was the same as it is this year, which is the only thing that matters. The amount of money that teams can spend on players is exactly the same.

The cap will decrease at a slower rate, but I don't think it's a significant consideration. It's already being reported that the cap could go to 80 mil in 3 years.

57% of 3 billion is 1.71 billion.
50% of 3 billion is 1.5 billion.

If revenue increases by 10% to 3.3 billion

57% of 3.3 is 1.881 billion
50% of 3.3 is 1.65 billion

The difference in growth is only 21 million. Spread across 30 teams, that's not that much.

Edit* Im an idiot.

 

[GAGLine]

*210 million which is 7 million per team.

No, I'm only talking about the amount each number increased. 1.71 billion to 1.881 billion is an increase of 171 million. The increase from 1.5 billion to 1.65 billion is an increase of 150 million. The difference in growth is 21 million.

 

[Tawnos]

57% of 3 billion is 1.71 billion.
50% of 3 billion is 1.5 billion.

If revenue increases by 10% to 3.3 billion

57% of 3.3 is 1.881 billion
50% of 3.3 is 1.65 billion

The difference in growth is only 21 million. Spread across 30 teams, that's not that much.

*210 million which is 7 million per team.

$21m is the actual answer.

($1.881B-$1.710B)= $171m growth
($1.650B-$1.500B) = $150m growth
$181m-$150m = $21m difference

 

[Gardner McKay]

No, I'm only talking about the amount each number increased. 1.71 billion to 1.881 billion is an increase of 171 million. The increase from 1.5 billion to 1.65 billion is an increase of 150 million. The difference in growth is 21 million.

Ah. Misunderstood.

 

[Tawnos]

According to Larry Brooks in the*NY Post, the Rangers and Derek Stepan are believed to be about $1 million apart in their negotiations for a new contract.Brooks says that Stepan is looking for $7 million over two years and that the Rangers have offered just under $6 million over two years.

Honestly, at this point, I want Sather to just give Stepan what he wants. I know he won't, but $3.5m per is not unreasonable given the rest of the market.

 

[Boom Boom Geoffrion*]

There's too much math in this thread.

 

[Tawnos]

Couture: $2.875M / $70.4M = 4.08%

Duchene: $3.5M / $70.4M = 4.97%

Stepan: ~$3.25M / $64.3M = 5.05%

So $3.25M today is actually comparatively more than what Duchene got on his 2nd contract..

Couture's deal was signed when the cap was $64.3m, but didn't apply until a season where it was $70.2m. Right about Duchene. But here is something else to consider in those comparables.

Couture was involved in 23% of the offense scored by the Sharks the year before he signed his extension.
Duchene was involved in 14% the year before he signed his extension. 23% over 3 years. Peak season of 30%
Stepan was involved in 35% last year. 24% over 3 years.

Since we're talking about value to a team, in terms of percentage of cap, we also need to be talking about contribution to the team. Stepan definitely has a case to get the same dollar number as Duchene, and a slightly higher percentage of the cap, since he provides slightly more of a contribution to the offense compared to Duchene at the time.

 

[Blue Blooded]

There's too much math in this thread.

There isn't enough math in this thread!!!

The cap is clearly a differential equation as the rate of increase is relative to the current cap at that time.

dC/dt = kC(t) => C(t) = C(0) * e^(kt), C(0) = $39M =>
=> C(t) = 39M * e^(kt), C(6) = 64.3M =>
=> 64.3M = 39M * e^(6k) <=> 64.3M / 39M = e ^(6k) <=>
<=> 1.65 = e^(6k) <=> 6k = ln(1.65) <=> k = 0.083

=> C(t) = 39M * e^(0.083t)

So the cap in season 23 (2018-19) would under the old paradigm be C(23) = 39M * e^(0.083*23) = $263M.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Couture's deal was signed when the cap was $64.3m, but didn't apply until a season where it was $70.2m. Right about Duchene. But here is something else to consider in those comparables.

Couture was involved in 23% of the offense scored by the Sharks the year before he signed his extension.
Duchene was involved in 14% the year before he signed his extension. 23% over 3 years. Peak season of 30%
Stepan was involved in 35% last year. 24% over 3 years.

Since we're talking about value to a team, in terms of percentage of cap, we also need to be talking about contribution to the team. Stepan definitely has a case to get the same dollar number as Duchene, and a slightly higher percentage of the cap, since he provides slightly more of a contribution to the offense compared to Duchene at the time.

I get your point, but I'm not sure I agree. Should Nash be paid more than Malkin based on last season? The market is based on precieved player value, which is largely (incorrectly IMO) based on points. But that is how it is.

Stepan would have extra weight if the Rangers lacked depth at C, like last year. But with Richards, Brassard, Lindberg, Boyle, and Moore down the middle his leverage is less than if he was an RFA for say Calgary.

Chicago had to pay Crawford $6M since they felt they had no other option. We can OTOH handle im missing a few games.

Subban and Couture took $2.875M, dont get greedy Derek.

But in the end, it is pretty childish clinging to Couture's contract and saying "The Sharks got Logan for $2.875M, so we should get you for the same! Waaaah!". Even though it may be a good comparable, $3M and change is still a steal for a player of Stepan's calibre.

So even thouh I do agree a lot more with the figures the Ranger brass is talking about than with Stepan's suggested numbers, all I want is just to get him signed at this point...

 

[Kwayry]

Wanted him signed long term, 6/4.25 per, but since they both agreed to a bridge, 2 at 3.3 and call it a day.
I have no issues with Stepan to this point, Sather is low balling him at less than 3 per. But it needs to get done this week.

 

[RangerBoy]

Jeremy Jacobs said the cap is going up substantially for next season. He made those comments in late June. Chairman of the NHL Board of Governors. If Bettman works for the owners,Jacobs is the main owner. Bettman works for Jacobs. He would know if the cap is going up or down or staying flat. The Canadian national TV contracts expire after this season. That money comes into the 15-16 cap when Stepan would be a group II with arb rights in 2015. Get the Rangers and Stepan comes down. 2 years. The cap will be much higher. Much higher. Stepan at $3.2M for 14-15 still gives the Rangers space to re-sign their other players with the cap going up. Even this season at $64.3M. The Rangers have so much driftwood they could shed to free up $ and roster spots.