Prospect Info: David Reinbacher

[Wats]

Love the hindsight. Vejdemo had similar draft rank and path as Lehkonen.

We can't generalize from tiny sample sizes.

Vejdemo didn't produce nearly as well either. At age 20 Lehkonen was on a SHL championship team putting up 33 pts in regular season and another 19 pts (in 16 games) in playoffs. Vejdemo at same age? 8 pts in 48 games. There's a reason he stayed in SHL longer and went to AHL.

Development path obviously isn't the only thing. The said prospect actually has to do well along the path.

Rarely do you see a player who doesn't excel in a lower level suddenly develop into performing well at a higher level.

 

[badfish]

I completely forgot that Jeff Tomlinson, for health reasons, actually stepped back into an advisory role. Kloten's new head coach is Gerry Fleming, a former goon (of the Habs organization actually). Of course this could affect Reinbacher's standing in Kloten and I probably don't like him taking part in Montreal's camp quite as much as if Tomlinson was still the man in charge. New head coach is always a risk for players, especially for younger players and if the coach is a hardass. On the bright side for Reinbacher, Fleming was born in Montreal and spent most of his playing career in the area or even within the organization...but still. I guess it would be better for Reinbacher to be in Switzerland now.

There was an article in the Athletic talking about how Fleming hopes Reinbacher will be back, pretty sure it mentioned to his entire philosophy for Reinbacher is playing him against the top lines. I don't think this is much of a risk.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Lets take a look.

Starting with 2019, because the others are too young and 2020 was affected by COVID.

Hughes, Dach, Kakko, Heinola were rushed, only Hughes, a special player turned out good, Dach is still up in the air but will likely never reach his true potential.

2018, All top 5 picks were in the NHL the very next year, Tkachuk and Svechnikov were both special players on NHL readiness and Dahlin was too, these guys did not need development, they were good off the bat. Kotkaniemi and Zadina did not have that luck, they busted. More improtantly, these three guys were trusted in key roles and into positions where their career would play out, the latter did not. An overwhelming majority of players that were not drafted in the 15-20 next picks panned out.

2017 is a poster year to make you look like a fool. Only Hischier and Andersson played right away, and Lias was given the typical up-down 4th line treatment. He busted. Hischier was trusted into the position he would play out during his career, a top 6 role. Of the top 13, only Andersson busted, all other players took 1 to 4 years to get a shot at the NHL. Cale Makar, the best defenseman in the NHL by quite a few strides, took two whole years to arrive in the NHL. This year was said to be weak, with no real superstars. It yielded a top 10 center, a HOF and probably generational defender, a top 5 defender, two 1st line center and 6 top 6 wingers in the first 13 picks. Nolan Patrick was on track to being a dominant force too, before being forced to retire due to injuries. Does that not ring a bell to you ? Why was one of the weakest years in recent memory on draft day yield, probably one of the greatest draft in history ?

Ill stop here because that seems like pretty hard evidence and this post is already long enough, but you know full well that this is true for most years. Now, yes, a player can also bust when teams are patient with him, sometimes the player just isn't good, or just doesn't want it. Like Kravtsov or like Juolevi. But sometimes the snow is yellow, and that doesn't mean it isn't white in reality.

Kindly read again what I wrote. I don't think I said what you think I said.

I did not say that it is always or mostly right to graduate players after their first camp.

I actually said that most of the time, the teams' decisions to graduate fast OR SLOW work out ok.

The large majority of 1st round picks do not make the NHL at their first camp. However, of the small number that make the team at their first camp, most stick and do not bust like Yakupov (who made team fast). Same with those who are sent to the AHL or Junior, most do not bust like say Zadina (who was sent to the AHL). The number is a bit bigger than the number who bust after making the team fast, but that is probably simply because teams usually get these things right and NOT because the AHL 'ruined' them.

Kirby Dach's rookie season was crowned with a very strong playoff performance. Universal praise for him and the club. His development was then slowed by a hand injury which ironically happened at TCJ training while the NHL was paused for COVID.

I have no idea what your point is with Makar. The kid chose not to turn pro for two seasons. The minute he turned pro, he played in the POs for the Avs. I'm not sure if the Avs brass recommended him staying in college, but if they did, then I am correct that they made the right choice. On the other hand, if they had nothing to do with it, then their only decision was regarding whether to play him the POs right away after signing him, and that turned out right as well.

I'm genuinely curious about what causes you to be aggressive in your posts. For example, why do you feel a need to call a fellow fan to whom you are talking 'a fool' when perhaps you did not understand the points made? Is there something in your life that makes you unhappy and bitter? My experience on the internet in general has led me to conclude that most verbal bullies are masking some kind of insecurity.

I'm hoping this is not the case for you, and that you will decide to communicate maturely and collaboratively. and ultimately both learn and teach more effectively.

 

[Mrb1p]

Kindly read again what I wrote. I don't think I said what you think I said.

I did not say that it is always or mostly right to graduate players after their first camp.

I actually said that most of the time, the teams' decisions to graduate fast OR SLOW work out ok.

The large majority of 1st round picks do not make the NHL at their first camp. However, of the small number that make the team at their first camp, most stick and do not bust like Yakupov (who made team fast). Same with those who are sent to the AHL or Junior, most do not bust like say Zadina (who was sent to the AHL). The number is a bit bigger than the number who bust after making the team fast, but that is probably simply because teams usually get these things right and NOT because the AHL 'ruined' them.

Kirby Dach's rookie season was crowned with a very strong playoff performance. Universal praise for him and the club. His development was then slowed by a hand injury which ironically happened at TCJ training while the NHL was paused for COVID.

I have no idea what your point is with Makar. The kid chose not to turn pro for two seasons. The minute he turned pro, he played in the POs for the Avs. I'm not sure if the Avs brass recommended him staying in college, but if they did, then I am correct that they made the right choice. On the other hand, if they had nothing to do with it, then their only decision was regarding whether to play him the POs right away after signing him, and that turned out right as well.

I'm genuinely curious about what causes you to be aggressive in your posts. For example, why do you feel a need to call a fellow fan to whom you are talking 'a fool' when perhaps you did not understand the points made? Is there something in your life that makes you unhappy and bitter? My experience on the internet in general has led me to conclude that most verbal bullies are masking some kind of insecurity.

I'm hoping this is not the case for you, and that you will decide to communicate maturely and collaboratively. and ultimately both learn and teach more effectively.

Mega bait. I just know you and your rhetoric and have no time left for this discussion, its been rehashed with dozens of people and you wont budge, its fine.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Mega bait. I just know you and your rhetoric and have no time left for this discussion, its been rehashed with dozens of people and you wont budge, its fine.

Everything I said is factual and/or plausible, and you have no valid rebuttal. Gotcha.

At least everyone else knows that I never claimed that it is always best to graduate players fast. That was either a pure gaffe on your part, or an intentional lie.

Either way, your dodge here does not back up your charges.

See ya later.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

I completely forgot that Jeff Tomlinson, for health reasons, actually stepped back into an advisory role. Kloten's new head coach is Gerry Fleming, a former goon (of the Habs organization actually). Of course this could affect Reinbacher's standing in Kloten and I probably don't like him taking part in Montreal's camp quite as much as if Tomlinson was still the man in charge. New head coach is always a risk for players, especially for younger players and if the coach is a hardass. On the bright side for Reinbacher, Fleming was born in Montreal and spent most of his playing career in the area or even within the organization...but still. I guess it would be better for Reinbacher to be in Switzerland now.

I don’t this is a Colberg situation though. Reinbacher was one of their most trusted D men if not most trusted. Not worried

 

[Mrb1p]

Everything I said is factual and/or plausible, and you have no valid rebuttal. Gotcha.

At least everyone else knows that I never claimed that it is always best to graduate players fast. That was either a pure gaffe on your part, or an intentional lie.

Either way, your dodge here does not back up your charges.

See ya later.

What you claim is that development is as it is, and that management knows best.

 

[Mrb1p]

Vejdemo didn't produce nearly as well either. At age 20 Lehkonen was on a SHL championship team putting up 33 pts in regular season and another 19 pts (in 16 games) in playoffs. Vejdemo at same age? 8 pts in 48 games. There's a reason he stayed in SHL longer and went to AHL.

Development path obviously isn't the only thing. The said prospect actually has to do well along the path.

Rarely do you see a player who doesn't excel in a lower level suddenly develop into performing well at a higher level.

No, no, no. Clearly what we mean when we say that development matters is that you can plug anyone in the ideal development path and we have a free Mcdavid

 

[KevSkillz4]

I'm totally sold on David Reinbacher. His offensive talent impressive me a lot. This guy is the real deal. I certainly see a potential top pairing D tonight.

Great choice by Habs!

 

[salbutera]

Vejdemo didn't produce nearly as well either. At age 20 Lehkonen was on a SHL championship team putting up 33 pts in regular season and another 19 pts (in 16 games) in playoffs. Vejdemo at same age? 8 pts in 48 games. There's a reason he stayed in SHL longer and went to AHL.

Development path obviously isn't the only thing. The said prospect actually has to do well along the path.

Rarely do you see a player who doesn't excel in a lower level suddenly develop into performing well at a higher level.

There’s also reality of life which comes into play, Vedejmo’s mother was diagnosed with cancer shortly after he was drafted & passed away a little while later after a long battle. If memory serves he in fact went back to SEL to be close to her.

 

[KevSkillz4]

Moritz Seider vibes 100% with him. Less physical.

 

[BaseballCoach]

What you claim is that development is as it is, and that management knows best.

I claim that players making the NHL team underage or from their first camp is the exception and not the rule, and that in those cases where teams make that choice, it works a majority of the time.

Management is not infallible, but we ought to believe that all the things we amateurs bring up trying to make categorical pronouncements based on some specific player not blossoming are things they already consider as well.

Management is comprised of human beings and they are not perfect and can make mistakes, some more often than others. No question that the Bergevin team was by and large less competent than its rivals throughout the league. They over-evaluated Victor Mete by a large margin, I don't know how they could think that this guy was such a dominant player that he could skip the AHL and join the NHL not at 20, but even 19. Holy cow! I'm sure hubris played a role. The need to to try to PROVE that Sergachev was not really required going forward must have taken over Bergevin's puny-brain.

But playing in the NHL at 19 when the player can skate at NHL level is not something that should NEVER be done either. Tampa played Sergachev in the NHL at 19 in the very same year Montreal rostered Mete. One decision worked out, the other was spectcularly bad.

This does not mean that had the Habs sent Mete back to London for a year, and then had him learn in the AHL for two years that he would have turned out as good as Sergachev. Surely not, in my opinion. Their biggest mistake was overestimating Mete's ceiling to begin with, after his strong D+1 year playing against Juniors. But possibly had he started in the NHL at 22, he might have carved out a more steady bottom six role. We will never know.

I get that the Mete and KK experiences soured Montreal fans on the idea that young players can make an NHL team at their first camp or under 20, and succeed.

But it does not mean that it should NEVER be done. Also saying no at 18 does not always mean that it should be no again at 19. These are all judgment calls regarding when a player is ready to start in the NHL and grow and learn from the competition as opposed to being crushed by it and not progressing at all. The environment in the NHL and the goals of the team are part of the equation for sure. So is the emotional maturity level of the player. And finally, so is the position played. It is tougher to manage in the NHL at D and at C than on wing.

Regarding Reinbacher specifically, I like that managment is willing to give him a chance at this camp. I think it is normal for such a high pick to have that opportunity to be seen and evaluated. I would be very surprised if David makes the NHL squad this year, but I am not ready to insist with certainty today that making the team next year should be ruled out of the question, no matter what.

Whether you agree with me or not, I am quite comfortable that my thinking is not that of 'a fool'. But if your self-esteem requires you to insult others whom you are engaged with, I guess I can't help you.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Rarely do you see a player who doesn't excel in a lower level suddenly develop into performing well at a higher level.

No, no, no. Clearly what we mean when we say that development matters is that you can plug anyone in the ideal development path and we have a free Mcdavid

No, but the problem is also that there IS NO ONE SINGLE 'ideal' development path.

It is also easier for a winger to be the exception, and leap forward to NHL level playing around good players then for a C or D.

 

[NotProkofievian]

No, but the problem is also that there IS NO ONE SINGLE 'ideal' development path.

It is also easier for a winger to be the exception, and leap forward to NHL level playing around good players then for a C or D.

Yes there is. As it turns out, the development path chosen for every single Montreal Canadiens' prospect is always the correct one. It's amazing, really.

 

[Rapala]

Yes there is. As it turns out, the development path chosen for every single Montreal Canadiens' prospect turns out to have been the correct one. It's amazing, really.

Yeah but it took us decades of failure to become this proficient.

 

[nhlfan9191]

No, but the problem is also that there IS NO ONE SINGLE 'ideal' development path.

It is also easier for a winger to be the exception, and leap forward to NHL level playing around good players then for a C or D.

Why are we making things more complicated and taking a development route that requires a player to be the exception?

 

[Jaynki]

Yes there is. As it turns out, the development path chosen for every single Montreal Canadiens' prospect turns out to have been the correct one. It's amazing, really.

Good post. Appreciate the sarcasm.

On a more serious note, i believe we give too much importance to the league where a players play. Dominating a minor league is nothing more than glitters. Players needs to display NHL tools first and foremost.

Development is inherent to the player and happens much more off-ice.

Skills, mental skills, dedication, growth, etc.

For example, watching Riley Kidney and Sean Farrell, i don't see players with NHL skillset despite them killing their own league. On the other hand, Beck, despite struggling being a PPG player in the CHL has evident and apparent NHL skillset. Same as you know who.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Yes there is. As it turns out, the development path chosen for every single Montreal Canadiens' prospect is always the correct one. It's amazing, really.

Who believes that? No one that I have read here has said that. Did I miss someone claiming that the development path chosen for every single Montreal Canadiens' prospect is always the correct one?

 

[NotProkofievian]

Who believes that? No one that I have read here has said that. Did I miss someone claiming that the development path chosen for every single Montreal Canadiens' prospect is always the correct one?

I'm saying it. How dare you besmirch Bergevin's legacy of prospect development with your monday morning quarter backing. I demand that you name 3 Montreal Canadiens prospects whose development paths were stupid and why you think that's the case.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Good post. Appreciate the sarcasm.

On a more serious note, i believe we give too much importance to the league where a players play. Dominating a minor league is nothing more than glitters. Players needs to display NHL tools first and foremost.

Development is inherent to the player and happens much more off-ice.

Skills, mental skills, dedication, growth, etc.

For example, watching Riley Kidney and Sean Farrell, i don't see players with NHL skillset despite them killing their own league. On the other hand, Beck, despite struggling being a PPG player in the CHL has evident and apparent NHL skillset. Same as you know who.

I agree with your concerns over Kidney and Farrell. I am perhaps underestimting Farrel's ability to use his intelligence to adapt to the NHL, but his first 6 games were not impressive in terms of what he seemed to have to bring.

Kidney reminds me of young Ribeiro with less elusiveness and less impressive hands.

But I'll keep an open mind as I watch them play, likely in Laval or Trois-Rivieres.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I'm saying it. How dare you besmirch Bergevin's legacy of prospect development with your monday morning quarter backing. I demand that you name 3 Montreal Canadiens prospects whose development paths were stupid and why you think that's the case.

Latendresse, Mete - both because they clearly needed another year of Junior and then probably AHL time.

Kotkaniemi because despite him having a lower ceiling than they might have thought, should have benefitted from more opportunity such as MSL gives his young players, and not squeezed all the time the way he was. In hindsight, perhaps he should have started in Laval (not Liiga at 18 again), but even in Montreal, they could have developed him better.

 

[Tyson]

I'm saying it. How dare you besmirch Bergevin's legacy of prospect development with your monday morning quarter backing. I demand that you name 3 Montreal Canadiens prospects whose development paths were stupid and why you think that's the case.

"How dare"...you are taking this shit a tad too seriously huh?

 

[NotProkofievian]

Latendresse, Mete - both because they clearly needed another year of Junior and then probably AHL time.

Kotkaniemi because despite him having a lower cailing than they might have thought, should have benefitted from more opportunity such as MSL gives his young players, and not squeezed all the time the way he was. In hindsight, perhaps he should have started in Laval (not Liiga at 18 again), but even in Montreal, they could have developed him better.

It sounds like you're saying that putting players in the NHL before they're ready can result in bad things, and I just don't understand how that could possibly be.

If a player's gonna play in the NHL he's going to play, how could putting him in the NHL possibly ruin him?

 

[Jaynki]

Perhaps unless in cases of say Slaf vs say Wright. So with Wright he's been tabbed for a couple years as a possible or likely 1st OA so I'm sure he was well coached up on all things on and off the ice since like a product if you invest the money in him it could yield a very nice return in the Millions depending of course on how it goes.

Whereas Slaf, not the player but as more of a late riser so maybe not as much goes into a player like that to get them ready for all the coming challenges that these kids have to go through like dealing with the press, fans, money, social media, etc...

As a big prospect fan for over 20 years I've put a lot of time into thinking about these kind of things which is why I was always against rushing kids to the NHL when they aren't ready, not because I fear it would ruin them, as I don't believe that happens in most cases but that it can cause a lot of problems for said player that can make it very difficult to get back on track.

Over the years here you see some posters will say the players are just born with it or not, it's all on how bad they want it but that's just BS at least to some degree as there are a number of factors involved that most don't think about or even know about unless they played at a legit level or spend a lot of time reading/thinking/talking prospects.

Granted many players screw themselves because they don't want to put the work in, they don't take it serious enough or nightlife gets in the way, lots of factors there too of course. You hope you are drafting a Gallagher/RHP type that no matter their size they just go out there and work hard. Work on what they need to do in order to get to the next level.

The Slaf vs Wright is a very interesting parralel as the former displaying high confidence whereas the latter appeared shy and affected by the pressure. Again, i don't think dominating lesser league is the answer here for Wright but something much more inherent. I think it also weighed in favour of drafting Slaf as its something important for our degenerate market. (Cooley also appeared shy and affected by all the attention, fwiw.)

I think in Galchenyuk case, we have seen a player auto-sabotaging himself but in the case of Mete and Kotkaniemi, it simply feels like unproper player evaluation. KK was overdrafted but he is still on its way to reach his ceiling as a strong, versatile middle six C and Mete is simply what he is. Being rushed is not the reason of their "busting" and thinking that they would have been different players today had they played more in the AHL or the CHL is futile.

Concerning your 4th and 5th paragraph, its effectively more than simply will. Development can be optimised but in the end, its about having NHL skills and reaching your ceiling. I think many players bust because the field is extremely contingented and they simply cant cut it. Also players evaluation/projection is very speculative. The maths tells us that you will draft many more busts than hits and that sometimes you will hit late in the draft like Gally, RHP

I think some players will kill their junior league but will never be NHLers because they don't have the tools after all. Slaf is the exact opposite of that. He has massive NHL skillset. For example, i have difficulty picturing Joshua Roy has an NHLer because i don't see those NHL-level tools. When a players display physical maturity where he can sustain the NHL pace and physicality, mental maturity and he can have mentoring through all of that, is he being rushed in a detrimental way?

 

[Jaynki]

Latendresse, Mete - both because they clearly needed another year of Junior and then probably AHL time.

Kotkaniemi because despite him having a lower cailing than they might have thought, should have benefitted from more opportunity such as MSL gives his young players, and not squeezed all the time the way he was. In hindsight, perhaps he should have started in Laval (not Liiga at 18 again), but even in Montreal, they could have developed him better.

Would Mete and Latendresse be better players had they had a different path to their NHL career.

I think Mete was simply unproper player evaluation.

Latendresse had massive stretch during his career but the injuries got the best of him. I think the pressure got the him also.

As for KK, he is on the way to reach his ceiling as a strong, versatile middle six C, DESPITE being rushed and misused for three f***ing years. He was simply overrated and drafted 3-4 spots too high.

When a player can sustain the pace of the NHL, has the physical maturity, the mental maturity (tough for us fans to evaluate) and that he can be mentored through all of that, is he really being rushed?