Before picks were attributed to teams, Carlsson and Fantilli were already going top 5. From most lists. Including the McKenzie one filled with scouts. Smith, at mid-rank, was No6. Behind Benson and Michkov. The more Smith was working his magic with that 1st line, the more he was pushing down Benson...and the whole Michkov drama is why he fell.
Also, yes, the BPA approach is not a guarantee. I never claim it was. I always said though that I prefer being wrong with that approach. I prefer being wrong by going with who I think could be top 6 and maybe end up on a 3rd or 4th line....than a guy I already pencilled at best being on my 3rd....to never making it. Though yes, I udnerstand also that it's not because a guy has a ceiling of top 6 that he automatically can only fell down on a bottom 2 lines....Thing is my strategy with my girls at school is always to aim at 100% so that in the end, they might drop to 80%, rather than aiming at 80 to drop at 60....
By definition....well I guess it's to each their own...it's not my definition of BPA. It makes no sense that in the world of projection, that BPA is who a player is now. If it would have been the case, Corey Locke would have been picked top 5. Same with every single top scorers of the Q in the past years. And they rarely were. And didn't deserve to be. My BPA is ALWAYS a mix of now and projection.
As far as BPA being a tough concept 'cause everybody can identify who is....well for me, at least, it was NEVER about Let's pick THE BPA. That does NOT exist. Every list as their BPA (aside from exceptionnals like Bedard, McDavid etc.). Every scout as their BPA etc.
My point was ALWAYS about yes a comparison of who I think is...but MOST IMPORTANTLY, if my organization tells me that Reinbacher is THEIR BPA, I say....fine. When my team tells me that if he would have been a lefty, it would not have been the same, it then scream NEEDS and that doesn't make him BPA. In essence, the way I see BPA is ''everything that doesn't scream needs'' When my team tells me that this year we concentrate on 1 particular position...that is not BPA. When my team tells me that this year, or for that particular pick, we address our TOUGHNESS, that is not BPA.
I have NO PROBLEM being wrong on a Scherbak pick. I have A LOT OF PROBLEMS being wrong on a McCarron pick.