How are you defining "contender"? I think the season after next this team could be expected to make it past round one, but a Cup would be something of a cinderella run. The year after that, with the experience of a playoff run under their belts, I might expect something more. To me a contender is a team that is expected to be in that final four group of teams. I have nothing to back this up, but my sense is that most teams make a run and miss before they really start making runs as a contender. I suppose it's all just an issue of semantics, though.
I fully expect them in the playoffs next season.
The Quinn detractors were angry they weren't in this season. If they're not in next season, what's the point of changing the coach?
I guess I envision them one season ahead of where you have them.