Darnell Nurse is overpaid by quite a bit. Hard stop. How much? I say $2m.
At negotiation time, he obviously oversold himself and Holland over bought.
I believe he his trying to do more than he is capable of… trying to be elite, like he is being paid but he is not capable of.
The thing that frustrates me is the Oilers didn’t lock him up long term prior to him having a good year, in a season like none other we have ever seen (COVID North division). I get that the Edmonton Oilers are not going to sign a UFA of Nurse’s calibre… they just don’t choose Edmonton.
We all know the Oilers (of Edmonton) have to overpay almost everyone. It’s rare if they don’t. I suspect Holland felt forced to also pay the McDavid friend tax.
Darnell Nurse is a low end 1st pairing D who has truly never had a great D partner (Schultz, Bear, Ceci). If he plays within what is his game, he will still be overpaid but would be far more effective. He needs to focus on net front presence… be big, physical and nasty… skating the puck out of the zone and joining the rush occasionally.
I think the reality is, he's a $5M puck rushing offensive defenceman with a penchant for total brainfarts and bad dirty plays. In this day and age, maybe that's a $6.25M UFA for a desperate team willing to pony up top dollar.
But the real problem is...what exactly is his role or deployment? He's too mistake prone and lacks basic ability to make a functional outlet pass, so he's not going to be a defensive "matchup" defenceman. He had his big contract year playing a ton of butter soft offensive minutes leeching off of playing with McDavey and Draisaitl and happened to score a bunch of goals doing it. But is he really the guy you want as your primary offensive D and "puck mover" when the only way he's really any good at driving offense from the back end, is by skating it up himself...or jumping kamikaze style into the rush to follow up and finish a play?
The other aspect of this is...how much can you actually pay a guy who realistically needs a "babysitter" rather than being a guy who can carry a lesser partner? Sure, he's had some lackluster partners over his career...but he's also generally been an intermittent liability in those minutes who hasn't flattered their partner much at all (they often end up seeming to take the blame as scapegoats for the whole thing). At some point, the salary crosses a threshold where you really have to expect
that player to be a "babysitter" not the "babysittee". Just in terms of salary structure...it doesn't necessarily make any sense to have the "cheaper" player anchoring and stabilizing the pairing, and you really can't afford a babysitter that expensive. Certainly not at $9.5M.
It's basically like some others have stated. Nurse's deal is arguably one of the very most unmovable in the league, all things considered. As the Oilers are continuing to discover...it's incredibly difficult, if not impossible to build a truly contender caliber defence around a guy who lacks a clear role and is overpaid by as much as he is at the top-end of your salary structure.