Former Bruins Danton Heinen

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the output is free for all. the exact recipe is for family. it's not really an on-topic thing right here, but feel free to tag me over to the Advanced Statistics And Analytics (or whatever it is called) section of the site. I haven't completed the current crunching of numbers, but I doubt Heinen dropped any since the last batch was baked. he was dropping before his being traded away years ago, but it seems to be a negatively outlying moment in his career. this current moment might be a bit high, but if he doesn't somewhat quickly regress to a lower mean, I won't be surprised. do you think he is drastically overachieving?
Heinen has been excellent. But there’s no way he’s the most impactful forward on the ice for the Bruins. Dom’s model for the Athletic - who doesn’t keep his formula hidden - has these three forwards (among others) for the Bruins. Any guess which one is Heinen?

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Heinen has been excellent. But there’s no way he’s the most impactful forward on the ice for the Bruins. Dom’s model for the Athletic - who doesn’t keep his formula hidden - has these three forwards (among others) for the Bruins. Any guess which one is Heinen?

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I’m more confused about how this version of him, in any way compares to the previous one.

Sure the eye test can be inaccurate but for simplicity reasons, using letter grades…

were not talking the difference between a B+ and A-, we’re talking more like a D+ and B+.

Makes me question the advanced stats even more and again points out one of my biggest issues with them….even people who use and like them, often don’t agree about what they mean.
 
I’m more confused about how this version of him, in any way compares to the previous one.

Sure the eye test can be inaccurate but for simplicity reasons, using letter grades…

were not talking the difference between a B+ and A-, we’re talking more like a D+ and B+.

Makes me question the advanced stats even more and again points out one of my biggest issues with them….even people who use and like them, often don’t agree about what they mean.
He wasn’t a D+ that’s for sure. The biggest difference I see with him now is confidence - a much, much more confident player.
 
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He wasn’t a D+ that’s for sure. The biggest difference I see with him now is confidence - a much, much more confident player.

I was factoring in toughness, grit, compete level, effort, etc.

Not going to quibble about it, as it’s water under the bridge.

In the end…just hope he keeps this up.
 
Can I asked why you avoid shot based stuff?

It's hard to score if you don't shoot. In a perfect world where one team could have 50 shots and one could have 10, you'd be perfectly happy to always call the 50 shot team by and away the most likely to win on every given night. So shrinking that gap between 50 and 10 down to more realistic amounts has to still tend towards some kind of statistical significance. Obviously high danger areas etc matter too.
 
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I'm just trying to wrap my head around that in the context of empty goals and goals when you just step on the ice, and all these things that over 20-25 games could make a player look way better or way worse than they actually are. I think that's the only part I can't totally make sense of there.
 
Why don’t you post your model? There’s plenty of player evaluation models out there and none are secret. Just posting random numbers - especially with incredibly outlying numbers on some players - is confiscated air for sure.

Why don’t you post your model?
 
I'd say he's closer to it than you believe. Across 2017-2019 Heinen had 81 points in 154 games, and was +23. That's better than .500 PPG while also being defensively responsible, all while spending time on various lines but most often on the 3rd. By any criteria that's a quality NHL player. Then in 2019-2020 he regressed a bit. Production wasn't terrible but he seemed to lose half a step in his game and he was struggling to make a consistent impact, and few were sad when he was traded, even though Sweeney as it turned out probably made a bad trade.

Now he's back and again a .500 player, with the same good passing skills and vision and a pretty high hockey IQ. I see two things different from 2019 - he's that bit more mature, and he's playing with a little more urgency and certainly some extra grit. He seems that bit more keen to make things happen. Well and good, and for sure he seems to be an improved player as a result. I'd just dispute that the change is that significant. The skills and the production haven't changed, just his attitude and style have progressed.

I know we're never going to fully agree on Heinen, and that's fine, but that's how I see it. He's a better player, albeit small sample so we'll see how he goes as the season progresses, but I just don't see a wildly different one.
Better version, less money. Win, win.
 
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it is not a predicting model. Heinen is earning extra credit at 104 through today. shot stuff may help you foresee, but I'm just giving my take on what has been in the current season so far. maybe compare these with shots data to claim overachievement. here is our "best" (most effective so far) forward. it may not be fair to compare forwards to defensemen, but... Carlo leads the team at 106 Bumper points or whatever. I'm going to Carlo's thread from here. thank you!
Do you enjoy watching the games at all, or you just focus on the analytics shit that you make up. It’s all fuzzy math. It’s everywhere and most of it is shit. ESPN is great at this non usefull shit. Heinen is playing a bit better than before as he is more on the puck and harder to take off the puck. The smarts is the same. I don’t need numbers to tell me that. Another difference is that he only makes 750k. If he was making what he did before, people around here would be all over him just like before. That simple.
 
Do you enjoy watching the games at all, or you just focus on the analytics shit that you make up. It’s all fuzzy math. It’s everywhere and most of it is shit. ESPN is great at this non usefull shit. Heinen is playing a bit better than before as he is more on the puck and harder to take off the puck. The smarts is the same. I don’t need numbers to tell me that. Another difference is that he only makes 750k. If he was making what he did before, people around here would be all over him just like before. That simple.

Pretty much the case for all analytical models. They all depend on the biases of the creator who determines what should be weighted more heavily against other statistics/factors. Or what should be included/excluded.

They should all be taken with a grain of salt.
 
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Same player. People's perspectives have changed.
More likely due to the financials. Higher the cap, usually means higher the expectations.

I’ve always been a Heinen guy, and he is a really good value at his current cap hit. So much so that even the whiniest of whiners on here can’t complain.

If only it were so simple all the time.
 
verily. I mocked the league and our shared reality as he got strung along unsigned. the bang per buck with this guy is something any team manager should have been able to see. dude is electric while many of his teammates struggle lately. his linemates do particularly well as he gets moved into each winger slot in a seemingly random order. imagine if they let him play his listed position. really, though.

He's like hockey's moneyball type of guy.

Goals. He gets more of them in your net per $. That simple.
 
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He’s just more willing to get dirty. Even last nights goal came from him going to the net. He’s playing like a guy who knows he was close to being out of the league and now he’s showing the kind of player we were hoping he could be when he was at Denver years ago. He was pure vanilla his first stint, now he’s vanilla with a little bit of sprinkles. Great addition to the team, especially at his price.
 
He has been excellent and was rewarded tonight with a hatty! Pasta was so happy for him (as were all of the Bs and guys who work for them).

I believe he will be making more $$$ next season.
 
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I hope he has a great season and makes me a believer.
Welcome to the cool peoples side

He has been excellent and was rewarded tonight with a hatty! Pasta was so happy for him (as were all of the Bs and guys who work for them).

I believe he will be making more $$$ next season.
DeBrusk Freddy & Heiny going to get a spike next contract
 
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