Value of: Damon Severson

[Nocashstyle]

I said” I would say a fair deal for him would be a 2nd and a c level prospect. Devils could get slightly more if a team is desperate or Devils eat some of the cap hit
I could see Devils looking at Kings,Leafs,Preds and Blues as teams to trade with.“


Devils could get slightly more if a team is desperate or Devils eat some of the cap hit…….

I’m not changing my opinion. I have stated he would get a first at entry draft but it will be hard for a contender to eat his entire cap hit for 2 years plus give up a first a c level prospect. Would you give up a first for David Savard right now because he’s on par with Severson except he has 3 more seasons left on his contract? He returned a first last year because a team was desperate and his cap hit got lowered plus was a rental which has more desire for flat cap world.

I doubt Severson returns two first round picks but maybe some team will be desperate

You’re out of your mind if you think “fair” value for a top 4 defenseman with another year on a team friendly contract is going to fetch a 2nd and an AHL fodder/13th forward/7th D (C-level prospect).

 

[goonybird]

Too bad he shoots right.

yea, right into their shin pads

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

Lmao thanks for proving my point. Devils would be better off waiting till draft when more teams have cap space and get a higher first round pick.

You aren’t correct. Your “point” carries the assumption that Severson has a burdensome contract, which isn’t true.

Severson’s AAV is $4.166M. If the Devils retain 50%, you’re getting a top-4 RHD at $2.083M AAV for two playoff runs.

That carries serious value.

 

[JTBF81]

It would be a fine proposal if the Devils had literally any RD in the system and PK wasn't about to retire to become a club promoter or influencer or w/e.

I'd guess the Devils instead trade PK at 50%, bring in a guy to replace him, and float the possibility of Severson next season if they continue to be "playoff challenged"

How is the other half of the Feete brothers? because the Devils could form a real Voltron of suckass siblings if everything goes wrong

Cal Foote is progressing and has started to look a little more comfortable recently. He doesn't have a lot of NHL experience yet, and he still has an issue with his skating in terms of initial steps/acceleration, but he is improving. He is a 3rd pairing/#7 in Tampa for now, but that isn't his ceiling imo. If he reaches his potential, he still has 2nd pairing caliber in his future.

Depending on how NJ views their situation in regards to contending/re-signing Severson, maybe this kind of deal fits both team's current positions, but perhaps not. I figured him+a 1st+either a young player like Joseph, but another prospect(depending on who it is) could also work instead. Tampa would need the 50% retention which is difficult given Severson's extra year, and I know the Devils aren't likely shopping him, so a trade isn't that likely. Since he would be a great fit at Tampa's weakest spot, figured I'd throw an offer out there.

 

[Overrateprospects]

You’re out of your mind if you think “fair” value for a top 4 defenseman with another year on a team friendly contract is going to fetch a 2nd and an AHL fodder/13th forward/7th D (C-level prospect).

AHL fodder 13F/7D is not c level prospect……. C Level prospect is what Carl Grundstrom was when LA kings got him. Bottom 6 or 3 pair Dman. B Level is 2nd pair Dman/ middle 6 forward, A level is top line/top pair potential.

Why am I not surprised people refuse to read as I stated if Devils eat cap/ take back some cap back through 2023 that they would get more which would be a first plus.

 

[Overrateprospects]

You aren’t correct. Your “point” carries the assumption that Severson has a burdensome contract, which isn’t true.

Severson’s AAV is $4.166M. If the Devils retain 50%, you’re getting a top-4 RHD at $2.083M AAV for two playoff runs.

That carries serious value.

Yes which is why I said if they retain you get more which would be a 1st and b level prospect.


Burden is not many teams could take his contract due to flat cap. I didn’t say he is the burden. Whatever Devils want for him by your logic the Habs can offer Savard and get more because he has similar cap hit and is exactly same type of player

 

[Guttersniped]

Yes which is why I said if they retain you get more which would be a 1st and b level prospect.


Burden is not many teams could take his contract due to flat cap. I didn’t say he is the burden. Whatever Devils want for him by your logic the Habs can offer Savard and get more because he has similar cap hit and is exactly same type of player

Savard is not the same kind of player, Severson is PMD playing bigger minutes with better results.

But (way) more importantly Savard is 31 and has 3 years/3.5m left on his deal after this season. Maybe other teams want Savard. I don’t know, I don’t want to turn this into a debate about a different player but the contract is not the same. That’s a longer commitment to an older, declining player. (Start a Savard trade thread if you’re curious about his value.)

Severson 1/2 off 4.166m would be similar to Coleman at his bargain price. A contender with cap constraints get a 2nd pairing righty PMD who’s been excellent on the PK & strong defensely for a couple years on a bad team for cheap. A team that will NOT use him on the PP is a plus, he’s pretty mediocre there (sometimes good, sometimes zip) and you’ll get some nice production from him even strength. (Which is what a contender is more likely looking for.)

Fitzgerald may not be looking to move Severson at all. He might be playing to extend him this off-season. I do think the return has to Coleman-eque or there’s no point in trading him now. (Remember that 1st in that deal was Vancouver’s so it was never in danger of being a late 1st.)

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

AHL fodder 13F/7D is not c level prospect……. C Level prospect is what Carl Grundstrom was when LA kings got him. Bottom 6 or 3 pair Dman. B Level is 2nd pair Dman/ middle 6 forward, A level is top line/top pair potential.

Why am I not surprised people refuse to read as I stated if Devils eat cap/ take back some cap back through 2023 that they would get more which would be a first plus.

I’d frame it as 2nd + 2nd/3rd round equivalent prospect, to take any disconnect in prospect grade interpretation out of the equation.

Alec Martinez (no retention) did return 2 2nds as a rental+1 return 2 years ago, to your point.

 

[Overrateprospects]

Savard is not the same kind of player, Severson is PMD playing bigger minutes with better results.

But (way) more importantly Savard is 31 and has 3 years/3.5m left on his deal after this season. Maybe other teams want Savard. I don’t know, I don’t want to turn this into a debate about a different player but the contract is not the same. That’s a longer commitment to an older, declining player. (Start a Savard trade thread if you’re curious about his value.)

Severson 1/2 off 4.166m would be similar to Coleman at his bargain price. A contender with cap constraints get a 2nd pairing righty PMD who’s been excellent on the PK & strong defensely for a couple years on a bad team for cheap. A team that will NOT use him on the PP is a plus, he’s pretty mediocre there (sometimes good, sometimes zip) and you’ll get some nice production from him even strength. (Which is what a contender is more likely looking for.)

Fitzgerald may not be looking to move Severson at all. He might be playing to extend him this off-season. I do think the return has to Coleman-eque or there’s no point in trading him now. (Remember that 1st in that deal was Vancouver’s so it was never in danger of being a late 1st.)

Severson at half price is worth a 1st and a b prospect. I personally think unless Devils are rebuilding again they should keep him as they have a few nice pieces and need to turn the page.

Blake Coleman trade the first was gonna be a 2020 or 2021( if Canucks didn’t make the playoffs which was a possibility till they expanded from 16 to 24 for 2020 playoffs. 9 teams were ahead of them at the time the league closed and they were 4th in their division.
Coleman traded to Lightning by Devils



I didn’t bring up Savard

Twice the cap hit, two yrs older, many more injuries. But no they are the same

Rasmus Ristolainen and Savard last yr, there's recent history for desperate teams. I'm looking for a dect prospect and a pick.

Fitz won't move Severson unless the return is high and your pkg of stuff ain't it.

I agree with OP and stand by what I said that if Devils either eat a contract back thru 2023 or half cap they will get first and b level prospect. Contending teams do not have the cap space(flat cap) so people mentioning Savard last year doesn’t make sense and omit his salary cap hit got lowered twice before trading him. He was a rental which in this market has more value as teams are not sure where the cap will be next year due to lack of attendance up north right now.

 

[Overrateprospects]

I’d frame it as 2nd + 2nd/3rd round equivalent prospect, to take any disconnect in prospect grade interpretation out of the equation.

Alec Martinez (no retention) did return 2 2nds as a rental+1 return 2 years ago, to your point.

That Alec Martinez deal was before Covid affecting the cap and because he’s a big name scoring big goals(Hawks,Rangers) during the playoffs he got a bump. It’s the same reason Rick Nash returned a first and Eric Staal returned 2 2nds despite having mediocre seasons the year they were traded.

I appreciate your response

 

[Smitty426]

Severson at half price is worth a 1st and a b prospect. I personally think unless Devils are rebuilding again they should keep him as they have a few nice pieces and need to turn the page.

Blake Coleman trade the first was gonna be a 2020 or 2021( if Canucks didn’t make the playoffs which was a possibility till they expanded from 16 to 24 for 2020 playoffs. 9 teams were ahead of them at the time the league closed and they were 4th in their division.
Coleman traded to Lightning by Devils
I didn’t bring up Savard No I did, Severson is better than Savard, not to mention an extra year so two playoff runs, 4 yrs younger

I agree with OP and stand by what I said that if Devils either eat a contract back thru 2023 or half cap they will get first and b level prospect. Contending teams do not have the cap space(flat cap) so people mentioning Savard last year doesn’t make sense and omit his salary cap hit got lowered twice before trading him. He was a rental which in this market has more value as teams are not sure where the cap will be next year due to lack of attendance up north right now.
Not at 4mil for RHD

A 4 mil dollar RHD who is playing his best hockey, has played up and down the right side, has mostly been overplayed at top RHD until this year is worth a 1st + small add with no retention. Its just a plain fact. Retained dd more. I agree that they dont have anything to replace him with, but if he wants 7-8 M per, move him. But we're not there yet

 

[Overrateprospects]

A 4 mil dollar RHD who is playing his best hockey, has played up and down the right side, has mostly been overplayed at top RHD until this year is worth a 1st + small add with no retention. Its just a plain fact. Retained dd more. I agree that they dont have anything to replace him with, but if he wants 7-8 M per, move him. But we're not there yet

It will be interesting but you laughing at me mentioning a 2nd and a Carl Grundstrom type player as not even close is something else. Could it be more sure but you implied it was offering a 5 round pick straight up

 

[leafsfan2point0]

Holl (2M #4/5 RHD signed for next year till Hughes and Shakir take over
1st 2022
3rd 2023
Der Arguchinstev

for

Severson @50%
works out to approx the same cap hit

 

[JTBF81]

If he is made available, I could see Tampa offering either:

Jan Rutta(solid #4/5 type, also for cap reasons)
'22 1st
Mathieu Joseph
'23 3rd or B prospect
Or
Cal Foote
'22 1st
Mathieu Joseph(could also be a prospect here)
For
Severson@50%
For a team like Tampa, getting the retention for an extra year plus getting a solid upgrade at their weakest position would be worth an extra pick/prospect. If Brisebois had him as a target and he was available, I could see Tampa going for it.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

If he is made available, I could see Tampa offering either:

Jan Rutta(solid #4/5 type, also for cap reasons)
'22 1st
Mathieu Joseph
'23 3rd or B prospect
Or
Cal Foote
'22 1st
Mathieu Joseph(could also be a prospect here)
For
Severson@50%
For a team like Tampa, getting the retention for an extra year plus getting a solid upgrade at their weakest position would be worth an extra pick/prospect. If Brisebois had him as a target and he was available, I could see Tampa going for it.

I think anything from Tampa would have to include Foote and a 1st so this would be something I would think the Devils would look at.

 

[HanTykje]

Why? Tampa usely develops their own talents, not often they trade them? Jan Rutta i understand.

 

[JTBF81]

Why? Tampa usely develops their own talents, not often they trade them? Jan Rutta i understand.

Because Severson fits Tampa's window far better than Foote. Foote has plenty of potential but for Tampa, Severson for this year and next year represents a significant upgrade. I believe Foote can reach that 2nd pairing ceiling, and the timeline for that fits NJ's progression better than Tampa's right now. Severson likely re-signs with the Devils anyway, but if he was made available, Tampa should pursue him.

 

[HanTykje]

Because Severson fits Tampa's window far better than Foote. Foote has plenty of potential but for Tampa, Severson for this year and next year represents a significant upgrade. I believe Foote can reach that 2nd pairing ceiling, and the timeline for that fits NJ's progression better than Tampa's right now. Severson likely re-signs with the Devils anyway, but if he was made available, Tampa should pursue him.

Understand that, but need to think long term? Erik Carnat, Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli, Ross Colton, Alex Killorn all their contract run out in 2023, and Mathieu Josephs, Ondrej Palat, Brian Elliott and Patrick Maroon in 2022. How will we plan this? Who will get new contract and how will their contracts be according to Cap space?
But i think this is a topic for another thread.

 

[howkie]

Devils do not have enough RHD depth to let Severson go and he’s pairing well with Sieganthaler, but if they were doing a trade with WPG for Severson this is what I’d like see the trade around Ehlers. Devils obviously add a significant piece and a pick, but this would be the base of the deal that makes sense for the Devils.

So what is the main piece in this offer?

 

[JTBF81]

Understand that, but need to think long term? Erik Carnat, Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli, Ross Colton, Alex Killorn all their contract run out in 2023, and Mathieu Josephs, Ondrej Palat, Brian Elliott and Patrick Maroon in 2022. How will we plan this? Who will get new contract and how will their contracts be according to Cap space?
But i think this is a topic for another thread.

Yes, for another discussion, but short answer is that some of those you listed will either re-sign cheap or are more easily replaced(Joseph, Elliot, Maroon, Colton). One of Palat or Killorn is likely lost to ufa or traded unless they take a pretty team friendly discount. Either Palat walks and they reup Killorn, or he re-signs and they trade Killorn next year/this off season. Hopefully, the 3 main rfas will be fit in with the space gained from 1-2 others leaving, but if one has to be traded, the answer is Sergachev. Cernak and Cirelli are far more valuable to the team based on their play/position, and Serg will return the most(and may or may not ask for too much on his next deal).

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Legit top 4 defensemen are not that cheap lol

Having watched most of the Devils games the past two seasons I cam confidently say that Severson is not a "legit Top 4 defenseman": just as Jesper Bratt is not a "top line" wing.

Both play so out of necessity due to a dirth of offense in the Jersey lineup. Similarly, both are one dimensional players and their lack of positional awareness make them liabilities when they are on the ice; offerijg little value to teams looking to compete for a Stanley Cup.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

A defensively responsible top 4 RHD is a huge need for Van. If Severson is it, then I could see Boeser being on the table if we are confident we can sign Severson and if he comes with picks and prospects.

Severson is -12 this season and -117 for his career. "Defensively responsible" is not the way to describe his game.

 

[Devils Army]

Having watched most of the Devils games the past two seasons I cam confidently say that Severson is not a "legit Top 4 defenseman": just as Jesper Bratt is not a "top line" wing.

Both play so out of necessity due to a dirth of offense in the Jersey lineup. Similarly, both are one dimensional players and their lack of positional awareness make them liabilities when they are on the ice; offerijg little value to teams looking to compete for a Stanley Cup.

These are 2 of the more false things I've seen. Jesper Bratt is PPG this year with terrific analytics and creates high quality looks every night. And you just used plus minus which invalidates almost any opinion you have going forward.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

These are 2 of the more false things I've seen. Jesper Bratt is PPG this year with terrific analytics and creates high quality looks every night. And you just used plus minus which invalidates almost any opinion you have going forward.

Last night's game was the epitome of both of them for the last four seasons - a couple of nice plays offensively and invisible on the game-winning goal (when a player scores from right on top of the goalie).

How is it possible in a 3-2 game to be on the ice for both of your team's goals yet finish -1?

Oh wait. Plus/minus isn't relevant.

What isn't relevant is being PPG when you're team loses 2/3's of the time and those points are mostly meaningless (i.e. the only goal in a 5-1 loss).

As someone who recalls when the Devils played meaningful games, I can assure you these players are the antithesis of the ones that comprised those teams.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Last night's game was the epitome of both of them for the last four seasons - a couple of nice plays offensively and invisible on the game-winning goal (when a player scores from right on top of the goalie).

How is it possible in a 3-2 game to be on the ice for both of your team's goals yet finish -1?

Oh wait. Plus/minus isn't relevant.

What isn't relevant is being PPG when you're team loses 2/3's of the time and those points are mostly meaningless (i.e. the only goal in a 5-1 loss).

As someone who recalls when the Devils played meaningful games, I can assure you these players are the antithesis of the ones that comprised those teams.

Well, he did play over 27 minutes. When you’re on the ice for close to half the game and your team loses, yeah chances are you’ll be on the ice for goals against.

Isolated +/- is a comically poor way to judge a player. If you really want stats, look at his underlying metrics. *hint - they support the notion that Severson is a top 4 defenseman.

And for the bolded part: *insert old man yells at clouds meme*

I’m old enough to have watched those days too. Not sure how a winger currently pacing a ppg and a top 4 defenseman are the antithesis of players on a good team