Value of: Dallas Stars potential fire sale

[Dr Pepper]

It really is the perfect year for Dallas to do a re-tool.

Two elite rental options (Klingberg & Pavelski), a veteran forward (Radulov), a former Cup-winning goalie having a great season (Holtby) and a 3rd line / PK guy (Raffl) having a surprisingly good year.

Yup, just need Nill to see the writing on the wall and finally do away with his "I like where we're at", head-in-the-sand approach to this team.

Which itself is a pretty tall order, but we'll see how the next month or so plays out.

Right now Dallas is only 4 points out, with 4 games in hand on San Jose for that second wildcard spot - and three Canadian teams to leap over just to get there.

If they pick up one or two wins this week, I'd say it's just as likely he flips into buyer mode and goes all-in.

 

[wintersej]

If Sweeney gave up that package for Pavelski he should be fired.

 

[oconnor9sean]

Radulov sounds like a player the Rangers would look at for top 9 role. What would be the cost? I know a lot of Rangers fans wouldn’t want him because of age but Drury has been looking for middle 9 option since October.

Nill loves conditional deals in years when we've been sellers before, so I'd guess it'd be something like a 2022 2nd or 2022 3rd + 2023 3rd with a condition that would add something Dallas' way if the Rangers made the ECF and Radulov played in >50% of the games.

 

[dredeye]

Boston won't be paying that price. If those are the asks we'd be looking at Radulov

 

[TooMuchMan]

Vaak looks to be finally coming into his own and DeBrusk is at worst a good 3LW… but given better ice time and quality line mates is more of an average 2LW. Add a first on top of that and it’s a criminal overpay.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Vaak looks to be finally coming into his own and DeBrusk is at worst a good 3LW… but given better ice time and quality line mates is more of an average 2LW. Add a first on top of that and it’s a criminal overpay.

In a bare cupboard the cream of mushroom soup and rice cakes start to look good

 

[Kaners PPGs]

Personally, I'd be curious if Toronto would move a combination of Robertson + Niemela/Liljegren + 1st for Klingberg 50% retained.

Klingberg is not what Toronto needs. They need a minutes-eater that can handle tougher matchups to replace Holl in the top 4. Some smart team will get De Haan for a 3rd or 4th round pick. If he can stay healthy, he'll be very useful on a 3rd pairing.

 

[Johnny Tomala]

Dallas won't be doing firesale. They will keep everyone aside from maybe Klingberg and compete for play-offs. IMO they will make it.

 

[starsfan86]

Dallas won't be doing firesale. They will keep everyone aside from maybe Klingberg and compete for play-offs. IMO they will make it.

Not if they can only win 3 games on the road.

 

[Bigshow747]

Dallas won't be doing firesale. They will keep everyone aside from maybe Klingberg and compete for play-offs. IMO they will make it.

Making it is a toss up. But the way this team plays on the road, Tom Gagliardi is pushing management to go all in for two games of playoff revenue. They are not going past the first round playing Colorado (who will be the top of the standings by then). Forget it. They have to leapfrog 3 teams and win enough of the games in hand to catch San Jose. It's a fools errand to go "all in" and lose value for nothing.

 

[Overrateprospects]

Nill loves conditional deals in years when we've been sellers before, so I'd guess it'd be something like a 2022 2nd or 2022 3rd + 2023 3rd with a condition that would add something Dallas' way if the Rangers made the ECF and Radulov played in >50% of the games.

Conditional deals I’m not are allowed but maybe only FA conditional. Rangers won’t be looking at 2nd and 3rd. That’s what Zuc returned and had a way better season and is a better player

 

[txpd]

I am pretty sure at this point that so long as his level of play remains where it is on average that Holtby will be traded to the Capitals. Its a perfect fit on every level. Samsonov will be have play well enough between now and the TDL to stop that from happening. Vanecek seems solid in his role and would be a good partner for Holtby

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Retaining on Klingberg would block Dallas from retaining on Pavelski or Radulov trade. Seeing that Klingberg is the cheapest, retaining on his contract would need a more premium price.

That literally makes zero sense seeing as every team has 3 retention slots and Dallas is currently using none. Robertson+1st is also definitely worth the retention too as rentals never return the value of 2 1sts without retaining.

Would you prefer if a 3rd team loke Detroit retains and gets Robertson instead and just send you a mid/late 2nd?

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Retaining on Klingberg would block Dallas from retaining on Pavelski or Radulov trade. Seeing that Klingberg is the cheapest, retaining on his contract would need a more premium price.

Dallas has all 3 retention slots available. The max on all of them is well under the 15% threshold.

In an environment in which contenders generally operate close to the cap or are in LTIR, retention is more about facilitating a deal than adding value. For example, neither Carolina nor Toronto, the buyers most in need of a RHD on paper, can afford Klingberg outright.

 

[Rory]

I love how everyone plays GM and is trying to convince everyone else how valuable their player is. Look at recent deadline rentals and you see 1sts going out for players half of what Pavelski is producing. GMs know that a guy like that will push them over the top. The problem is he won’t go for a 1st. He won’t go at all. Nill likes where his team is at so he will keep him and Dallas will miss the playoffs by a couple points.

 

[Kcb12345]

I love how everyone plays GM and is trying to convince everyone else how valuable their player is. Look at recent deadline rentals and you see 1sts going out for players half of what Pavelski is producing. GMs know that a guy like that will push them over the top. The problem is he won’t go for a 1st. He won’t go at all. Nill likes where his team is at so he will keep him and Dallas will miss the playoffs by a couple points.

It'll be just like the Oleksiak situation, where Nill turned down offers in hopes of re-signing him and ended up losing him for nothing instead.

 

[Johno]

Dallas has all 3 retention slots available. The max on all of them is well under the 15% threshold.

In an environment in which contenders generally operate close to the cap or are in LTIR, retention is more about facilitating a deal than adding value. For example, neither Carolina nor Toronto, the buyers most in need of a RHD on paper, can afford Klingberg outright.

That's a brainfart on my part. Don't know if I was thinking that it was only two slots or that I dreamed that we had dealt Khudobin already with retention

 

[Dr Pepper]

It'll be just like the Oleksiak situation, where Nill turned down offers in hopes of re-signing him and ended up losing him for nothing instead.

At least he doesn't have any NTCs to muddy the waters.....wouldn't want another Brad Richards situation where he nixes a deadline deal for Dallas as a pending UFA, and then ends up walking to the same team that made the offer.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

It'll be just like the Oleksiak situation, where Nill turned down offers in hopes of re-signing him and ended up losing him for nothing instead.

I think there was some talk that JO did want to stay in Dallas, but they were thinking $4M max, and Seattle paid more, so he went. The relationship with Klinger is fractured, no way he comes back, and Nill will trade him. If nothing else, he may have learned from that debacle not to take chances. In the end, he lost not only Jamie, but also Jason Dickenson. I hope that third rounder we got turns out to be a stud.

 

[Oates2Neely]

Bruins could use Seguin. I’d say you owe us one. DeBrusk + 1st + Swayman for Seguin 50% retained

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Conditional deals I’m not are allowed but maybe only FA conditional. Rangers won’t be looking at 2nd and 3rd. That’s what Zuc returned and had a way better season and is a better player

IIRC, conditional trades are still allowed. The one they did away with was the condition upon re-signing (like you said FA conditional)

 

[ToDavid]

When was the last time a GM gave up a 1st for a 37 year old rental?

I don’t see age being a huge factor for rentals. All that really matters is how he’s playing this season, which is pretty damn good.

When’s the last time a 37 year old rental was scoring at a 35 goal, 84 point pace?

 

[Overrateprospects]

IIRC, conditional trades are still allowed. The one they did away with was the condition upon re-signing (like you said FA conditional)

Okay but I think original offer is a little pricey considering his production level this season although for most teams around the league like his low salary. I feel a 3rd rounder with a chance to become 2nd rounder is more realistic as Pavs and Klingberg has more value which will take more time weighing offers. Who knows teams pay premium for rentals all the time

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Okay but I think original offer is a little pricey considering his production level this season although for most teams around the league like his low salary. I feel a 3rd rounder with a chance to become 2nd rounder is more realistic as Pavs and Klingberg has more value which will take more time weighing offers. Who knows teams pay premium for rentals all the time

I didn't even see the original offer, nor was I commenting on it. Just providing feedback on the comment on the conditional clauses. That's all.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

This is what I’m hoping the Stars will do. We could potentially end up with two additional 1st rounders instead of missing the playoffs/getting booted in the 1st round. Last season Dallas let Oleksiak walk for nothing and seeing that he’s a better player than Savard that’s a missed 1st round pick. Let’s hope Nill doesn’t make the same mistake this year