Player Discussion Dakota Joshua | Shut up and give him his money!

[ManVanFan]

I think he’s still finding his upside, but if he’s looking to cash in, we are going to have to do what Allvin said - find the next Dakota Joshua, rather than paying through the nose for Dakota himself.

I don’t want him to go, but if he indeed is chasing a bag of cash, we may have to let him.

Friedman calling him the next Hyman, Hyman had two seasons of half a PPG by 27.

To me, he profiles much closer to Blake Coleman. Coleman 3 years into his 6 year deal finally worth it.

A GM did pay up, although it was Trieveling.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Friedman calling him the next Hyman, Hyman had two seasons of half a PPG by 27.

To me, he profiles much closer to Blake Coleman. Coleman 3 years into his 6 year deal finally worth it.

A GM did pay up, although it was Trieveling.

In fairness, Coleman got to 30 goals this season.

Just took a few years and the team going into the toilet to do it.

 

[wetcoast]

Friedman calling him the next Hyman, Hyman had two seasons of half a PPG by 27.

To me, he profiles much closer to Blake Coleman. Coleman 3 years into his 6 year deal finally worth it.

A GM did pay up, although it was Trieveling.

I really like Joshua but he simply isn't going to be nearly as good as either Hyman nor Coleman but will still command more money than the Canucks can afford simply due to the scarcity of his skillset.

 

[ManVanFan]

I really like Joshua but he simply isn't going to be nearly as good as either Hyman nor Coleman but will still command more money than the Canucks can afford simply due to the scarcity of his skillset.

They could afford him if they made him a priority.

 

[wetcoast]

They could afford him if they made him a priority.

Sure but if the Canucks are going to overpay it's going to be for a more important piece like Lindholm or Hronek, that's just how these things usually go.

 

[Nuckles]

I think it's going to be a huge mistake to let him walk, especially if Lindholm walks. Pay him what's necessary.

His chemistry and production with Garland can't be overstated, all while mostly getting defensive zone starts at even strength (59.3% regular season, 65.6% in playoffs). And that's not even accounting for his much needed physical presence.

We're all clamoring about needing more top 6 wingers, but he was scoring at a 23 goal pace and didn't even get going until December 5th.
He had 3 goals and 6 points in the first 24 games of the season.
The remaining 39 games after that (that he played)? 15 goals and 26 points.

 

[rea]

I think it's going to be a huge mistake to let him walk, especially if Lindholm walks. Pay him what's necessary.

His chemistry and production with Garland can't be overstated, all while mostly getting defensive zone starts at even strength (59.3% regular season, 65.6% in playoffs). And that's not even accounting for his much needed physical presence.

We're all clamoring about needing more top 6 wingers, but he was scoring at a 23 goal pace and didn't even get going until December 5th.
He had 3 goals and 6 points in the first 24 games of the season.
The remaining 39 games after that (that he played)? 15 goals and 26 points.

What if, what's necessary is the difference in adding players at tdl, or it instantly ages terribly and the necessary was a 5+ year term?

I also want him back, I've also resigned myself to the fact that canucks will ultimately overpay any of the fa's they keep, whether it be in cap or term, and that includes hronek. But given we get a big hit w oel this upcoming season, and will probably be pushing right up to the cap when the smoke clears, without some long term injury *knock on wood* to a main piece which we do not want, all the negotiating dollars the team can squeeze positively out of every contract will probably hurt or help the club when it matters the most

 

[Nuckles]

What if, what's necessary is the difference in adding players at tdl, or it instantly ages terribly and the necessary was a 5+ year term?

I also want him back, I've also resigned myself to the fact that canucks will ultimately overpay any of the fa's they keep, whether it be in cap or term, and that includes hronek. But given we get a big hit w oel this upcoming season, and will probably be pushing right up to the cap when the smoke clears, without some long term injury *knock on wood* to a main piece which we do not want, all the negotiating dollars the team can squeeze positively out of every contract will probably hurt or help the club when it matters the most

Realistically replacing his production will cost as much if not more in free agency with another player. Another player that may very well not mesh with Tocchet's system or whatever linemates we give them.

Worrying about having cap space to add people at the deadline is silly, especially when the Canucks can't accumulate cap space through the season with Poolman on LTIR. And the new hot strategy that more teams may be open to going forward is *double* salary retention (75%) as we saw this past TDL.

This team is in a cap crunch, but their window to contend is RIGHT NOW and may not be for much longer. Pinching pennies over one of their more impactful players is ridiculous.

 

[rea]

Realistically replacing his production will cost as much if not more in free agency with another player. Another player that may very well not mesh with Tocchet's system or whatever linemates we give them.

Worrying about having cap space to add people at the deadline is silly, especially when the Canucks can't accumulate cap space through the season with Poolman on LTIR. And the new hot strategy that more teams may be open to going forward is *double* salary retention (75%) as we saw this past TDL.

This team is in a cap crunch, but their window to contend is RIGHT NOW and may not be for much longer. Pinching pennies over one of their more impactful players is ridiculous.

Def not talking about pinching pennies, but I also believe in value. Going on short term runs of production are great, but it doesn't guarantee future success.

Our window is definitely within these next 3 yrs imo, so that in itself is why I think they can't be spending frivolously on players that really haven't proven it. I'm saying all this as an advocate of his re signing, but just like if it were up to me, I'd prob let lindholm go, and take hronek to arbitration. With the amount of money they're working with, it is more than enough to build quality depth, but breaking the bank on a couple players is tough, if it makes you grab some bargain basement fillers that take away from your depth.

 

[rea]

Also, his production at the pace he was going is unsustainable, unless you believe he will avg a shooting percentage of 21%. To maintain the levels on an adjusted shooting rate would mean he'd have to get better to maintain that, not to say that he can't, but guarantee, the pitchforks will come out in this city the moment he doesn't produce like he did, especially if he signs a big contract.

 

[F A N]

Hyman, Coleman, and Joshua aren't the same players. I don't think they are comparable. The "bet" was different. Hyman averaged 30+ goals in his last two seasons with the Leafs over 82 games. The problem is that he couldn't stay healthy. He has obviously managed to stay healthy and exceeded expectations. Coleman was 30 who never established himself as a top 6 player. A career year at age 32? I think his production this season is just a blip. With Joshua, I don't think anyone of us here are advocating giving Joshua the same type of contract. With that said, Canucks gave Mikheyev 4x$4.75M for similar production?

I was arguing in the Boeser thread that Boeser's play could be sustainable based on Boeser's improved shot location this season and the fact that he has taken more shots in the past. Joshua took 84 shots in 63 games this season (a slight increase from previous years). In comparison, Hyman took 113 shots in 43 games in his last season with the Leafs and Coleman took 122 shots in 55. Basically, Hyman and Coleman had averaged 2.7 shots a game or more before signing with their current team. That's more than double what Joshua averaged this season.

Joshua's high shooting percentage shouldn't come as a suprise and isn't indicative of guaranteed decline. Joshua went to the net and scored most of his goals right in front of the net. Otherwise, he doesn't generate much shots.

 

[HockeyWooot]

Keep him if around 3.5/3.75m aav tops.

 

[BluesyShoes]

People forget he came to camp out of shape. Some part of me feels like Tocchet and Garland willed this year's performance out of Joshua. Good for Joshua if he wants to cash in, all the power to him, but I'm not confident he will continue to have the same success elsewhere; he had an ideal situation here without much pressure on him and a lot of believers around him. On a new team with all kinds of new expectations, it remains to be seen how he does on his own and when he faces some adversity. I'll trust the team who has had the best look at this player on how much his contract should be worth. If they let him walk, even if Joshua continues to have success, I'll think they played their cards right with the information they had. He seems like a risky player to bet on.

 

[HairyKneel]

This team is in a cap crunch, but their window to contend is RIGHT NOW and may not be for much longer.

Fake News

 

[VanJack]

If Joshua has priced himself out of the Vancouver market, then all you can really do is shrug your shoulders and wish him well.

After all, that's what free agency is supposed to be all about. NHL careers are short--and when you've toiled in the minors as long as Joshua and finally break through at the NHL level in a contract year, then you can't blame him for 'going for gold'.

But the Canucks, like every NHL team, has an internal budget. And if a guy can't fit into it, then that's just the way it is.

 

[RobertKron]

If Joshua has priced himself out of the Vancouver market, then all you can really do is shrug your shoulders and wish him well.

After all, that's what free agency is supposed to be all about. NHL careers are short--and when you've toiled in the minors as long as Joshua and finally break through at the NHL level in a contract year, then you can't blame him for 'going for gold'.

But the Canucks, like every NHL team, has an internal budget. And if a guy can't fit into it, then that's just the way it is.

Joshua has less than 110 total minor league games played. He hasn't played a single game in the minors since his third professional season.

 

[VanJack]

Joshua has less than 110 total minor league games played. He hasn't played a single game in the minors since his third professional season.

That may be.....but he also spent four years in the NCAA with Ohio U, and he just turned 28.....and to date, he's had one good year in the NHL.

If this was Jim Benning, I'm sure he signs him to a big-ticket extension based on that one good season. But there's considerable risk involved.

I'm sure Allvin has a number and contract term in mind for Joshua.....but I doubt he has much flexibility to move off of it. And if somebody else wants to overpay, then he's gone.

 

[F A N]

That may be.....but he also spent four years in the NCAA with Ohio U, and he just turned 28.....and to date, he's had one good year in the NHL.

If this was Jim Benning, I'm sure he signs him to a big-ticket extension based on that one good season. But there's considerable risk involved.

I'm sure Allvin has a number and contract term in mind for Joshua.....but I doubt he has much flexibility to move off of it. And if somebody else wants to overpay, then he's gone.

What did you think of Marino's signing? Marcus Pettersson's?

 

[Luck 6]

I liked Joshua, but I'm starting to think he's not worth the risk...

If we could get him back at a reasonable rate, sure, but there's no guarantee he's going to be able to continue scoring at this level. He could be one of those guys who gets 4mil then scores 30 points a season for the next 4 years while providing some PK ability and physicality. We can't afford to pay that kind of premium for that type of skill set...

 

[F A N]

I wonder if Joshua is looking at Marcus Foligno's contract with Joshua being younger and a better bet to play more games.

 

[VanJack]

The Canucks weren't very big or intimidating to start with--but if they lose both Zadorov and Joshua, then they're starting the season in a deep hole.

Problem is, a lot of teams in the NHL are in the same boat--lacking in size and physicality. So it's inevitable, if the Canucks want them back they'll have to 'overpay'.

That's just the way it is in free agency.

 

[Regal]

I liked Joshua, but I'm starting to think he's not worth the risk...

If we could get him back at a reasonable rate, sure, but there's no guarantee he's going to be able to continue scoring at this level. He could be one of those guys who gets 4mil then scores 30 points a season for the next 4 years while providing some PK ability and physicality. We can't afford to pay that kind of premium for that type of skill set...

If he’s a 15-15 player with everything he brought this year, including being able to play hard minutes effectively 5v5, I think that’s actually worth 4 in this market, though it’s debatable if that’s the best use of the money for this team. My bigger concern would be he’d end up like a Goodrow who put up decent points his first two years in NY but was getting outchanced when he was on the ice to the point where he wasn’t much better than a replacement guy.

 

[Luck 6]

If he’s a 15-15 player with everything he brought this year, including being able to play hard minutes effectively 5v5, I think that’s actually worth 4 in this market, though it’s debatable if that’s the best use of the money for this team. My bigger concern would be he’d end up like a Goodrow who put up decent points his first two years in NY but was getting caved in when he was on the ice .

Maybe, but good teams find a way to get that 15-15 player with PK skills for 2 million or less. Reclamation projects, ELCs, veterans in their twilight years, etc. They then use that money for more top tier players.

So I don’t know… I don’t think we can afford a 15-15 3W with PK skills for 4mil per year.

 

[Blue and Green]

Friedman calling him the next Hyman, Hyman had two seasons of half a PPG by 27.

To me, he profiles much closer to Blake Coleman. Coleman 3 years into his 6 year deal finally worth it.

A GM did pay up, although it was Trieveling.

Blake Coleman has earned his keep every season. If he was popping 30 goals on a consistent basis he'd be one of the biggest recent UFA bargains. Tilts the ice in 5v5 play, is a good PKer, misses very few games and he averages 20 goals per 82 games despite not getting much PP time. He's what the Canucks hoped that Mikheyev would be.

 

[Regal]

Maybe, but good teams find a way to get that 15-15 player with PK skills for 2 million or less. Reclamation projects, ELCs, veterans in their twilight years, etc. They then use that money for more top tier players.

So I don’t know… I don’t think we can afford a 15-15 3W with PK skills for 4mil per year.

Yea I tend to agree with that. I think this team really needs one more impact forward and that’s more important that re-signing a Joshua type imo. I also think that’s what management believes as well. But if they end up going the re-sign Joshua route, I think he could still be roughly fair value even if he’s scoring 30 points mainly 5v5.