Because Canuck forwards have overall mostly been trash at 5v5 all season. It doesn’t matter how good you are offensively as a defenseman if you’re not getting support from forwards.
The Canucks have scored at a rate of 2.24 G/60 at 5v5 with Hughes on the ice, with the team shooting a combined 7.1%. The Avs meanwhile have scored at a rate of 3.89 G/60 at 5v5 with Toews on the ice, with the team shooting a combined 11.3%. That’s an insane difference, and it’s clear that it’s not due to the players in question.
Both teams score more with the players in question on the ice, but the Avs improve from 3.34 G/60 without Toews, while the Canucks improve from 1.50 G/60 without Hughes. Meanwhile, among all 137 defenseman with at least 500 5v5 minutes, Toews is 5th in G/60 and 9th in on-ice shooting percentage. Hughes is 91st in G/60 and 100th in on-ice shooting percentage.
If we look at their individual numbers, Toews is scoring at 1.62 P/60 at 5v5 gets a point on 41.7% of the Avs goals while he’s on the ice, while Hughes is scoring at 0.85 P/60, and gets a point on 37.9% of the goals while he’s on the ice. While this could theoretically make it seem like Toews is more responsible for the goals scored while on the ice, we can also see that their secondary assists are wildly different. Toews is averaging 0.86 secondary assists per 60, while Hughes is averaging 0.15. This means that their primary points are actually very similar, despite the disparity in on-ice goals for (0.75 for Toews, 0.69 for Hughes). That means Hughes is getting a primary point on 30.8% of the goals he’s been on the ice for 5v5, while Toews has been getting a primary point on 19.3% of the goals he’s been on the ice for. This is typically a sign of who is driving the offense.
That secondary assist rate for Toews is second in the league among defensemen with at least 500 5v5 minutes, while Hughes is all the way down at 121 out of 137. Considering Hughes scored at a rate 0.56 secondary assists his first two years in the league, had a point on 43.8% of the goals he was on the ice for, and is the primary puck mover in transition for the Canucks, it’s clear that his low secondary assists are an anomaly. Meanwhile, over those same two seasons, Toews had a 0.55 secondary assist per 60 rate and a point on 38.8% of the goals he was on the ice for, so it looks like his high secondary assists are also an anomaly.
Hughes has scored at a similar primary scoring rate this year, on a much worse offense, while clearly having an outlier season in terms of secondary assists, and improves his team’s offense to a greater degree. It really shouldn’t need to be argued, since it’s obvious, but Hughes is most certainly the better 5v5 offensive player.
