lawrence
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- May 19, 2012
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no **** it is. It is considered America's Tier 1. It's pretty much their highest level of Junior hockey, like our CHL.
D Cale Makar - UMass (Amherst), NCAA (2017, 4th, COL)
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no **** it is. It is considered America's Tier 1. It's pretty much their highest level of Junior hockey, like our CHL.
rt
Clean Hits on Substack
Not to pull rank or anything but I once worked as an NHL scout (on the lower rungs of the totem pole, mind you) and spent some time scouting AJHL/BCHL. Maybe I can shine a light in here...
When scouting lower-level leagues there are two rules to keep in mind. They may seem contradictory at first, but are actually complementary:
1. You never downgrade a player in your ranking just because of the league he plays in. Never. It's not like Makar tried to make the Dub and failed. If you think a prospect skates like McDavid and shoots like Ovechkin you should never say '...but he plays in a crap league so I'll drop him down 10 spots in my ranking' as if it's some kind of punishment. If he skates like Connor Freakin' McDavid you rank him accordingly.
Having said that...
2. Scouts are always -- always! -- aware of the level of competition. Not only in terms of the league but also the quality of the opposing team and even the quality of players your guy matched up against in any given game. You expect a potential top 10 pick to control the play more at the junior A level. Any scout watching Makar will automatically factor this in.
But there are benchmarks we can look at to gain perspective. We can see how Makar holds up against better competition. At the World Junior A Challenge in December he was the best player on his (all-star) team and, arguably, the best player in the entire tournament. Recently, he was playing in the Western Canada Cup against the very best BCHL teams (both Chilliwack and Penticton have numerous players going to the NCAA next year, players who Makar will play against there) and he is still playing at a dominant level.
Another benchmark would be Brandon Hickey, a defenseman drafted directly out of the AJHL. He has done very well in the NCAA and looks to be a very good NHL prospect but, at the same age and stage of development, I'm confident any and all AJHL observers would tell you that Makar is waaaay ahead.
Me? I'd put him top 5 in this draft without hesitation.
When scouting lower-level leagues there are two rules to keep in mind. They may seem contradictory at first, but are actually complementary:
1. You never downgrade a player in your ranking just because of the league he plays in. Never. It's not like Makar tried to make the Dub and failed. If you think a prospect skates like McDavid and shoots like Ovechkin you should never say '...but he plays in a crap league so I'll drop him down 10 spots in my ranking' as if it's some kind of punishment. If he skates like Connor Freakin' McDavid you rank him accordingly.
Having said that...
2. Scouts are always -- always! -- aware of the level of competition. Not only in terms of the league but also the quality of the opposing team and even the quality of players your guy matched up against in any given game. You expect a potential top 10 pick to control the play more at the junior A level. Any scout watching Makar will automatically factor this in.
But there are benchmarks we can look at to gain perspective. We can see how Makar holds up against better competition. At the World Junior A Challenge in December he was the best player on his (all-star) team and, arguably, the best player in the entire tournament. Recently, he was playing in the Western Canada Cup against the very best BCHL teams (both Chilliwack and Penticton have numerous players going to the NCAA next year, players who Makar will play against there) and he is still playing at a dominant level.
Another benchmark would be Brandon Hickey, a defenseman drafted directly out of the AJHL. He has done very well in the NCAA and looks to be a very good NHL prospect but, at the same age and stage of development, I'm confident any and all AJHL observers would tell you that Makar is waaaay ahead.
Me? I'd put him top 5 in this draft without hesitation.
rt
Clean Hits on Substack
Thank you! I feel like half the fans on this board get so hung up on being punitive concerning point number one, that they can't get to the critical thinking part of the evaluation (point number two).
Birko19
Registered User
That was the point I was trying to make, the USHL is a bigger and tougher league and you're more likely to get a good player there comparing to the AJHL. My original response was to a person that said Mittelstadt has the same argument going against him as Makar in regards to their competition, which is not true at all.
Btw, in terms of actual level, I'd say the NCAA is pretty much on par with the CHL, the US tier 1 is definitely not as competitive, but it seems more competitive than our tier 1.
Yes it is covers a much bigger area. You also forgot to add Mark Letestu to that list and going back a bit there was a guy named Mark Messier that played in the AJHL, he did alright.
lawrence
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True. Keep in mind the NCAA take a lot of our tier 2 player (bchl). Most junior a players are not even good enough to play in the chl.
Lets be real here about one thing the Junior A challenge proves nothing. If you paid attention to that tourny at all you'd know that it was basically filled with more Junior A players and low tier USHL kids. All star team. Yesssh if that team is an all star team Svechnikov must be the best winger ever. Wow people will go to some odd extremes to pump this kids tires.
Anytime anyone attempts to make an evaluation it gets shut down because of his teams system or that he is somehow the most adaptable defencemen to ever play the game. There's some absense of critical thinking going on from both sides. Just watch the kid critically he has some glaring holes in his game. You just have to watch him play to see them. And trust me they arent there because of Brooks system. And it has nothing to do with his competition but I gaurantee they will get more exposed when he plays kids who are much more developed like the ones in the NCAA.
covfefe
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Most draft eligible players don't play anything resembling an NHL game, which is unsurprising, given that they aren't NHLers yet.
Look at Sergachev, Nylander, PLD and Poolparty - all top 10 picks in a stronger draft year - the same exact knock could be levelled at them when it comes to NHL readiness
And there actually are some similar d, in terms of offensive prowess and size - Gostisbehere, Barrie, Krug, Ryan Ellis. Ellis was way more 'junior' when he was drafted..
So I guess all those scouts are flat out wrong, you guarantee it. You should run a hockey team!
J
Not like scouts haven't been wrong before. Plus there are some services that are cautioning Makar as a top 10 pick and rightly so. It's far from unanimous. Laugh all you want doesn't change anything.
So I guess all those scouts are flat out wrong, you guarantee it. You should run a hockey team!
Not like scouts haven't been wrong before. Plus there are some services that are cautioning Makar as a top 10 pick and rightly so. It's far from unanimous. Laugh all you want doesn't change anything.
So I guess all those scouts are flat out wrong, you guarantee it. You should run a hockey team!
If he was flawless, he'd go #1. He's not.
AlternateSideParking
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- Dec 11, 2005
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My reasoning is simple: Makar is being ranked ahead of players who are playing in European elite leagues where the bottom line is packing arenas and winning, not player development. Coaches in The SHL, Extraliga, KHL and Liiga care less about player development. That's why Klim Kostin played 2 mins a game with Dynamo, why Vesalainen was demoted and benched with Frolunda etc. Liljegren has a similar skill set but with Rogle had issues adapting against grown men. Necas and Texier were excellent (all things considered) for their respective elite league teams.
To me, a Top-5 pick better be as close to a sure thing as possible. I was beyond impressed with his WJAC, and his hockey sense is very high. But I think he's been elevated more for what other players like those in Euro leagues didnt do rather than his skill set or sheer dominance of the AJHL.
Makar's Junior A Challenge Team was made up of select players from the 4 Western Junior A leagues. These players were all among the top players in their respective leagues, most older than Makar, and I believe all of them are committed to the NCAA for next season. The USHL players were not 'lower-tier'. They too are all NCAA-headed, older players (98, 97), among -- if not THE -- best players on their teams (which, by the way, were better than the USNTDP team this year). And Makar stood out among them.
No, it's not the WJC, but it is a definite step up from standard AJHL competition and thus provides a meaningful scouting perspective. And Makar was outstanding.
Another barometer is Ian Mitchell, also a D from the AJHL. Ian has a pedigree with Hockey Canada and was, arguably, the best Canadian defenseman on both the Hlinka and recent U18 teams. While it's true that neither of those teams had great success, it provides a perspective for comparing a good AJHL defenseman with his CHL peers. And Makar is several steps ahead of Mitchell.
As an aside, there are certain people who post here who are scouts, knowledgeable veteran observers of note, or deeply connected with hockey issues in Canada. Their posts are marked by conducting themselves in a certain respectful manner, even when they disagree. Just sayin'.
True, when projecting a player we have to keep his current level of opposition and environment in mind. This is why the U18s, 5-Nations etc. all serve as good barometers for Euro players playing in the top leagues. As you know, scouts are always juggling performance in these events along with league performances.
Having said that, I am also wary of the often-heard argument that player X should be ranked higher than a USHL, Junior A, or even CHL player because 'he played against men' (I know you are not exactly saying that, but it is a common refrain). In Europe, good draft eligible prospects have that choice or possibility, whereas players like Makar simply can't do so -- so why downgrade him because of that? He dominates where and how he can. That's all he can do.
A note to some other posters: no one is saying Makar is 'flawless', doesn't have to improve his game, or is making any similar exaggerations. I, and others, are simply making the argument that it is reasonable that he should be considered a top 5 or so prospect for this draft despite playing at a lower level of competition.
Not sure how anything I said was disrespectful but okay. All I'm saying is if he did that at the Hlinka or even the U17's it could be something to point to but many of the kids playing in that tourny are not the top kids in their draft class from Canada and the US. Saying that team has an "all star" quality is a bit of a reach. A majority of those kids will never sniff the NHL they are Junior A all stars but again that isn't saying much for a kid who has already wrecked Junior A..
What I'm waiting to see is someone who actually points out some weaknesses in this kids game. Everyone keeps saying to use your critical thinking and be original but not a single one of them can point to the plethora of weakness in his game. I can do the opposite and point to strengths in his game. He has one heck of a release on his shot and his skating ability is incredible. His lateral movement highlighted by his edgework makes him a formidable threat off the rush. He displays the ability to think the game at a high speed and can create a lot of space for himself because of it. He has excellent vision and uses it at speed effectively and he has some slick hands which are really on display when he has to stickhandle in tight spaces.
You have to imagine other kids like Liljegren, Valimaki, Foote and Heskeinen playing in those leagues and tournaments though. They'd absolutely crush any competition as well. When you look at Makar's season and what he has accomplished you have to think about it relative to his peers and how much they could do in those leagues and especially on a team like Brooks that basically gives their defencemen free reign to play fire wagon hockey. Valimaki would be a demon in an even more open system like that, Liljegren who has very similar skating ability could also make kids in Junior A look like pylons. What has Makar actually done to separate himself from them besides wreck some guys in a lower level league. What would Liljegren have to do to be better go PPG in a mens league? Come to Junior A in Canada so he can also wreck everyone to improve his stock? How would Makar be doing against men in the Swedish league? All questions you have to ask and evaluate effectively when looking at kids. You can't just say well he was waaaayy better in his league then they were in theirs. That is not an effective way to evaluate a player and frankly I'd hope my favourite teams scouts would look at much more than that.
All of this goes without saying -- every (and I mean EVERY) scout is aware of this -- and does not contradict anything I have said thus far. Yes, I'm sure those other top defensemen would be similarly dominant in the AJHL, which is why they are consensus top 15 overall picks.
Yes, you have to juggle and compare leagues, opposition and environments to get perspective. And there are barometers that I've mentioned earlier that help you do this. With all that in mind, I would still rate Makar top 5. I would rate Heiskanen top 3. I think he would be even better than Makar if he were in the AJHL.
Valimaki put up 61 points in 60 games in the WHL in a system that activates defencemen a lot. I see him doing even better than Makar at those levels especially in a system like Brooks. His offensive instincts are incredible but he can also play the defensive side of the puck very well. I have him rated ahead of Makar in everything but skating ability. his shot and release are quicker and much heavy and more accurate than Makar's IMO and his ability to read the play offensively is just as good if not better. He gets things done but he is not as flashy. Where I rank him ahead of Makar is he is much more dependable in the defensive zone. His reads and ability to react and defend on the rush, especially 1 on 1 are incredible. He can quarterback a PP like Makar but he can also be extremely dependable on the PK. The way he anticipates the play defensively and gets his stick in lanes or knocks pucks off guys is elite in the WHL. His physical play sets him on another level entirely. I think Makar might have a bit more offensive upside in his game but I feel Valimaki has a much higher floor and is a much more dependable defenceman to have on the backend in any situation. Give me the two-way dependable guy over the offensive risk taker any day.
AlternateSideParking
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Tough to ID weaknesses since Brooks killed it this year. I mean, they were 51-5-4 and +187, then went 12-0-1 in the playoffs and 5-0-0 in the WCC.
Bananas. Bandits went 68-5-5 leading up to the RBC Cup.
Five regulation losses in 78 games.
This kid had never dealt with losing. UMass or getting picked by Vegas, Vancouver or Colorado will change that.
I'd say one-on-one battles with bigger players is always something any puck mover under 6'0 can work on. Gap is decent but stick and closing speed make up for it. Slot coverage isnt all that great and he gets pushed out of position, plus (as expected) he floats far from the slot looking to steal pucks and a few times got burned.
He's constantly moving in the offensive zone -- constantly -- so his partner has to be 100% locked in and be real good at defending odd man rushes.
He dominated the league and was next to unstoppable. The truth is, the only thing that can stop him is a conservative coach who restricts him, or a serious injury.
ProspectsSTC
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- Jul 12, 2014
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tigervixxxen
Optimism=Delusional
I knew UMass-A wasn't good, I never realized that they won 2 games this year. I can't imagine his NHL team will let him go to that program.
Can I ask how you compare Makar to Liljegren, who I know you are still fairly high on.
Is he really any better than Ryan Ellis?
Ellis was picked 11th overall and THN has Makar at #5.
Ellis was picked 11th overall and THN has Makar at #5.
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