CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[GKJ]

How likely is it that the league goes for this plan if there's still so many uncertain variables at such a juncture?

How likely is it that this is being put out there because if/when the league tries/does take control of the team, Merulo can fight it and say the rug was pulled out from him?

 

[EchoesoftheEighties]

I was at many games in Edmonton over that time period. I stand by my assertion of crowds in attendance/ interested in watching the team at less than 10k many times.

I will also confirm this. The team always announced tickets sold but there were definitely entire sections that were empty. Team was awful, and on those cold Tuesday nights in January, no one cared to go. Tickets were very cheap.

As soon as the 50/50 was announced (late in the third by design), the arena would empty out fairly quickly

 

[TheLegend]

How likely is it that this is being put out there because if/when the league tries/does take control of the team, Merulo can fight it and say the rug was pulled out from him?

Rodier was addressing that yesterday on X.

Based upon his knowledge of the NHL’s constitution and bylaws, he believes Meruelo has the leverage at this point.

 

[GKJ]

Rodier was addressing that yesterday on X.

Based upon his knowledge of the NHL’s constitution and bylaws, he believes Meruelo has the leverage at this point.

I’m still betting on the money winning out.

 

[dj4aces]

Rodier was addressing that yesterday on X.

Based upon his knowledge of the NHL’s constitution and bylaws, he believes Meruelo has the leverage at this point.

For curiosity's sake, did they happen to cite any section(s) of the constitution or bylaws thereof that would indicate Meruelo's advantage?

 

[aqib]

Friedman's 32 Thoughts podcast starts off by discussing the Coyotes. I'm not sure when these things are recorded, but in case anyone is interested in hearing what they have to say, here you go:

My big takeaways are:

1) Muerelo is flying in to talk to the employees. If it was good news they could have sent an email.

2) The league will let Muerelo do well on the sale. So it won't be like the ASG situation. Maybe there is a relo fee but it won't be one that eliminates the possibility of making a profit.

 

[KevFu]

@KevFu At the 12 minute mark, Friedman scoffs at the notion that Yotes are cash flow positive. It's worth a listen.

Not sure why that's directed at me.... I know I said season ticket revenue was up 50% in Mullett vs Glendale because limiting supply of tickets increased demand/price (and posted the ESPN story about it).

I definitely never said Arizona was cash-flow positive. I am strongly on record as saying everyone in the Big Four is "totally fine" simply by being members of the league, and ticket sales mean very little to nothing, as proved by COVID.

The simple thing people ignore is that this isn't a game of Monopoly, where if you hit zero it's GAME OVER. Teams lose money all the time, frequently "on purpose."

I always use the Sharks as an example, because they "lost money" per Forbes for like 8 of 12 seasons, always between $1m and $8m.... but the entire time they spent over 99% of their cap space!

If they were concerned about keeping that number above zero, they wouldn't sign that last free agent each off-season. It's highly unlikely they simply "Screwed up" basic math on budget 8 times in 12 years. It's highly likely that just don't care and the owner said "go ahead and do it. I want a better team. It takes money to make money."


The Coyotes are $18.5 million in payroll over the floor. If the situation is so dire that they need to be cash-flow positive or go out of business, they'd just firesale $18.5m and get to the floor.

OR they want a better team to justify jacking up Mullett ticket prices and get momentum behind an arena, and a couple million is chump change to a billionaire.

 

[dj4aces]

My big takeaways are:

1) Muerelo is flying in to talk to the employees. If it was good news they could have sent an email.

2) The league will let Muerelo do well on the sale. So it won't be like the ASG situation. Maybe there is a relo fee but it won't be one that eliminates the possibility of making a profit.

I got that impression too. I mean, if it's bad news, whether I'm on the giving or receiving end, I've always had a face-to-face (it's just more respectful that way). If it's good news, it's as simple as a faxed/emailed memo, text message, or phone call. But my experiences are not everyone's experiences, and perhaps Meruelo is doing things different? Perhaps he has to be in town for something anyway, and is just gonna swing by and schedule a meeting with team personnel? I guess we'll know in a few weeks, eh?

 

[Yukon Joe]

How likely is it that this is being put out there because if/when the league tries/does take control of the team, Merulo can fight it and say the rug was pulled out from him?

Listening to 32 Thoughts Podcast - Friedman was saying something along the liens that the league wantxs to give AM every opportunity to try and save the franchise, so that (in my words) he can't claim that the league pulled the rug out from under him.

If the league forces a sale... franchise values have increased a lot since 2019. I have no doubt they'll make sure AM comes out okay, probably makes a slight profit for his trouble. But I also can't imagine AM going scorched earth and trying to fight the league if they go to him "you need to sell" - the risks to both sides are too high.

 

[TheLegend]

For curiosity's sake, did they happen to cite any section(s) of the constitution or bylaws thereof that would indicate Meruelo's advantage?

No…. He didn’t.

Rodier does legal work for the PA. So he’s well versed on the NHL and the CBA and such.

 

[dj4aces]

No…. He didn’t.

Rodier does legal work for the PA. So he’s well versed on the NHL and the CBA and such.

I gotcha! Not trying to vet his credentials (I was an IT worker before disability), just genuinely curious as to what in the NHL constitution/bylaws gives Meruelo a leg-up, is all.

 

[GKJ]

Listening to 32 Thoughts Podcast - Friedman was saying something along the liens that the league wantxs to give AM every opportunity to try and save the franchise, so that (in my words) he can't claim that the league pulled the rug out from under him.

If the league forces a sale... franchise values have increased a lot since 2019. I have no doubt they'll make sure AM comes out okay, probably makes a slight profit for his trouble. But I also can't imagine AM going scorched earth and trying to fight the league if they go to him "you need to sell" - the risks to both sides are too high.

Yes, and he also said that it’s ‘4th down’ and whatever the play is, he has to play it. We had Marty Walsh talk about how there’s no communication with players - that only happens because Bettman can only say so much, but he can.

So it makes sense that we get all kinds of movement almost immediately upon the end of all of that talk from last week. We’re now at a point where the focus is on one spot. We have a reporter saying it can be done sooner than everyone thought, citing a government source. Merulo is meeting with staff next week. They’re buying every second they can.

 

[TheLegend]

This podcast from Steve Peters and Craig Morgan runs over an hour, but for long time megathreaders it’s worth it. Some tidbits about previous ownerships and the entires saga, plus how they look at where things stand right now.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I gotcha! Not trying to vet his credentials (I was an IT worker before disability), just genuinely curious as to what in the NHL constitution/bylaws gives Meruelo a leg-up, is all.

If someone really wanted to dig I believe all of that was disclosed as part of the (funnily enough) Coyotes bankruptcy proceedings from 2009. Whether the Constitution/by-laws have changed since then - nobody can say for sure.

 

[MNNumbers]

What's the source for Meruelo coming into town, and what's the time line?

 

[dj4aces]

What's the source for Meruelo coming into town, and what's the time line?

Friedman, the 32 Thoughts podcast I linked a couple pages back.

The segment about the Coyotes runs from the start until about 15 minutes in.

 

[Llama19]

How likely is it that this is being put out there because if/when the league tries/does take control of the team, Merulo can fight it and say the rug was pulled out from him?

See this post...

 

[TheLegend]

See this post...

Crazy I missed that post but it’s a nice comprehensive overview of the sales of the franchise from IA up to Barroway.

One of the things Morgan said in the podcast in regards to that is wondering if there are/were any proxy agreements between Meruelo and the NHL when he bought the franchise.

 

[TheLegend]

A Twitter thread from Tony Cani on the podcast I posted above….. he’s using long form posts but he adds quite a bit to what was said in the pod.

 

[mouser]

Yup, though a major difference is that Forbes valuations are guesstimates of what's behind the curtain while Nielsen data is what's behind the curtain.

If you're buying a sports team you don't use Forbes #s, you want to see the actual books.

If you're buying ad spots, you want to see the Nielsen data.

If you read up on the topic the Nielsen ratings data is highly questioned by all the stakeholders, especially the broadcast networks, carriers, and advertisers paying rates based on the Nielsen data. There are a lot of articles out there covering the topic.

The stakeholders have all sort of agreed to continue using Nielsen because they don’t have a better alternative to replace it.

I would hope and expect the Nielsen ratings are more accurate than Forbes, but they still have their warts.

 

[kiwi51]

Does anyone know a link that shows how much money PHX lost last year?

 

[mouser]

Something to keep in mind on the Forbes/Sportico business of hockey guesstimate: They’re estimating Operating Profits, commonly known as EBITDA in the business world. EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization.

It’s very common for publicly traded companies to report positive operating profits, but then a net loss once you add in the numbers excluded in EBITDA. One of the most important things excluded in many cases is paying Interest on debt.

 

[mouser]

Does anyone know a link that shows how much money PHX lost last year?

That information isn’t public. Any number you see published by anyone (including Forbes) should be questioned for accuracy.

 

[Llama19]

Does anyone know a link that shows how much money PHX lost last year?

Arizona Coyotes Revisit Arena Woes With Scripps TV Deal in Hand

"As far as the arena is concerned, after the 2021-22 season, the Coyotes were ejected from playing in what is now called Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Ariz., over a lease dispute. Last season, the Coyotes lost in excess of $10 million playing in Mullett Arena on the campus of Arizona State, even though seats were priced high—on average, $160 a ticket. Bettman called playing in the college arena at best a short-term solution, and they have one more season beyond this one to go on their lease."

Source: www.sportico.com/leagues/hockey/2023/arizona-coyotes-scripps-tv-deal-arena-future-1234741486/

 

[Reaser]

If you read up on the topic the Nielsen ratings data is highly questioned by all the stakeholders, especially the broadcast networks, carriers, and advertisers paying rates based on the Nielsen data. There are a lot of articles out there covering the topic.

The stakeholders have all sort of agreed to continue using Nielsen because they don’t have a better alternative to replace it.

I would hope and expect the Nielsen ratings are more accurate than Forbes, but they still have their warts.

Yes, as I've said in this thread, Nielsen is the standard -- if you want to read up on more recent developments: https://www.axios.com/2024/01/23/fox-renews-multiyear-measurement-deal-nielsen

Note: The #1 in ratings/viewership in the country the NFL having zero interest in anything other than Nielsen. That alone kills any alternative options. If you don't have the NFL then you're not really in the business, especially since sports ratings/viewership is most popular and NFL is most popular (obviously) in that group.

Twas hilarious when NBCU, who has been the biggest complainer of Nielsen, hyped up all the alternatives they were/are going to use then renewed with Nielsen in the end because it's the standard and what matters in the industry.

So exactly what I said:

"Forbes valuations are guesstimates of what's behind the curtain while Nielsen data is what's behind the curtain.

If you're buying a sports team you don't use Forbes #s, you want to see the actual books.

If you're buying ad spots, you want to see the Nielsen data."

Nielsen data would be the equivalent of "the books." In other words, it's what matters. Whether anyone trusts the numbers isn't the point, the point is that it's the currency used. So regardless of when and what networks complain or when someone with an agenda (not you) wants to say ratings don't matter because they don't personally trust Nielsen numbers. That's not how the business works and this is the business section of the forum. Nielsen is what is used, that's the releveant data. Past, present and for the future until someone comes up with something better --been many attempts at 'something better' and all of them failed, or currently are in the process of failing (cost cutting/layoffs) and/or are so irrelevant that no one has ever heard of them.