CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[Tom ServoMST3K]

So now the worry is another developer is going to out-bid the Coyotes?

 

[Puckrobber]

That's the concern I have. Saying it could be "wrapped up" in 3 months seems not to take into account that someone else might outbid the Yotes on the land. Then what?

 

[TheLegend]

So, say this deal for the 100 acres goes through. Is Meruelo prepared to move forward without a major subsidy? If not, would one have to be voted on?

Lots of moving parts to this. This is just for the land purchase.

The land is within the city Phoenix so it will have to go through them. It’ll be just as complicated as TED was and you won’t see any of the opposition that the airport gave. But there will be zoning changes and eventual discussions about taxes that could bring on the advocacy groups.

 

[dj4aces]

Lots of moving parts to this. This is just for the land purchase.

The land is within the city Phoenix so it will have to go through them. It’ll be just as complicated as TED was and you won’t see any of the opposition that the airport gave. But there will be zoning changes and eventual discussions about taxes that could bring on the advocacy groups.

It sounds like this is going to require a vote, am I right in that assessment?

I'm cheering you guys on, so I seriously and sincerely hope this works out.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

So now the worry is another developer is going to out-bid the Coyotes?

LOL, that would be one of many concerns.

It sounds like this is going to require a vote, am I right in that assessment?

I'm cheering you guys on, so I seriously and sincerely hope this works out.

The asshat's keep telling us there will be no vote.... time will tell.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Friedman's 32 Thoughts podcast starts off by discussing the Coyotes. I'm not sure when these things are recorded, but in case anyone is interested in hearing what they have to say, here you go:

@KevFu At the 12 minute mark, Friedman scoffs at the notion that Yotes are cash flow positive. It's worth a listen.

 

[TheLegend]

It sounds like this is going to require a vote, am I right in that assessment?

I'm cheering you guys on, so I seriously and sincerely hope this works out.

LOL, that would be one of many concerns.


The asshat's keep telling us there will be no vote.... time will tell.

The city of Phoenix will be involved. Public referendum is another thing but the number of signatures is much higher (same % but it’s from 1.7 million vs 235k it was for Tempe.) making it much more expensive.

IIRC the Coyotes have already met with at least one city council member before they embarked on this.

 

[TheLegend]

@KevFu At the 12 minute mark, Friedman scoffs at the notion that Yotes are cash flow positive. It's worth a listen.

They were cash flow positive last year after the new US TV deals kicked in. Every team was.

 

[Boris Zubov]

They were cash flow positive last year after the new US TV deals kicked in. Every team was.

Any idea where this can be referenced?

 

[TheLegend]

Dropping this here as an FYI. Tony Cani is well plugged into the local political arena.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Dropping this here as an FYI. Tony Cani is well plugged into the local political arena.

View attachment 817040

So I'm failing to see how the hell will this be resolved in 3 months if the process will be way more complicated?

 

[brentashton]

For me if this deal gets done, it's up to people of Pheonix to prove that hockey works. Now they will an Arena in good location.

My issue with Phoenix and lot of these teams is the amount of fairweather fans they have. They show up when the team is winning but as soon as they go back down the standings the majority stay away again.

I don't expect teams to sell out when they are losing but expect more than 10,000 a game.

Many teams have this problem even those located in Canada. Ottawa has had ticket sale issues, Edmontons decade of doom was crowds of 10k. NYI, NJD Anaheim, there’s more over the years. It happens when a team isn’t shiny and beating the wheels off some other sad sack franchise.

 

[TheLegend]

So I'm failing to see how the hell will this be resolved in 3 months if the process will be way more complicated?

The land sale would take 3 months.

 

[TheLegend]

Any idea where this can be referenced?

Sportico and/or Forbes.

 

[Boris Zubov]

The land sale would take 3 months.

Isn't that what the tweet is referring to?

Sportico and/or Forbes.

Friedman quotes Forbes as being completely inaccurate in the podcast.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

LOL, that would be one of many concerns.

LMFAO

I assume that's the next big hurdle, in a series of hurdles that stretches beyond the horizon.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

LMFAO

I assume that's the next big hurdle, in a series of hurdles that stretches beyond the horizon.

LOL I think that's a given and then there is the "will the asshat's shoot themselves in the foot" question.

 

[TheLegend]

Isn't that what the tweet is referring to?

Yes…. On a scale of timelines…. We’re at the same point as the RFP stage for TED.

Friedman quotes Forbes as being completely inaccurate in the podcast.

I know… a lot of us are skeptical of them too. But does Friedman have better numbers??

The league would probably know, but they aren’t going to be forthcoming with it.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

So I'm failing to see how the hell will this be resolved in 3 months if the process will be way more complicated?

Is anyone saying it will be resolved in three months?

My impression is approval for the sale of the land could be resolved in three months.

Then the piece of land needs to be re-zoned, financing for the actual arena needs to be figured out, the city needs to approve infrastructure improvements to supply the area.

If everything goes perfectly (which it won't), you won't see shovels in the ground until early 2025.

I know… a lot of us are skeptical of them too. But does Friedman have better numbers??

The league would probably know, but they aren’t going to be forthcoming with it.

For anyone who works in media, Forbes franchise values are like Nielson's ratings.

We all know they're not accurate, but it's the best we've got, and at least they're probably all wrong in the same direction, because they work off a common set of assumptions.

 

[aqib]

Many teams have this problem even those located in Canada. Ottawa has had ticket sale issues, Edmontons decade of doom was crowds of 10k. NYI, NJD Anaheim, there’s more over the years. It happens when a team isn’t shiny and beating the wheels off some other sad sack franchise.

Edmonton's average attendance dipped below 13K ONCE. Coyotes have been there 4 out 12 seasons before moving to Mullet.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Is anyone saying it will be resolved in three months?

My impression is approval for the sale of the land could be resolved in three months.

Then the piece of land needs to be re-zoned, financing for the actual arena needs to be figured out, the city needs to approve infrastructure improvements to supply the area.

If everything goes perfectly (which it won't), you won't see shovels in the ground until early 2025.



For anyone who works in media, Forbes franchise values are like Nielson's ratings.

We all know they're not accurate, but it's the best we've got, and at least they're probably all wrong in the same direction, because they work off a common set of assumptions.

Craig Morgan said his "source" told him the sale of the land could get resolved in 3 months. I guess my question was referring to the tweet that Legend posted from Sam Cani of this being more complicated than TED, how will this be resolved in time for the NHL to stay the course. Seems like a big ask.

Yes…. On a scale of timelines…. We’re at the same point as the RFP stage for TED.


I know… a lot of us are skeptical of them too. But does Friedman have better numbers??

The league would probably know, but they aren’t going to be forthcoming with it.

Friedman stated he has several prominent people inside the league that made it clear that the Yotes being "cash positive" is clearly not the case. I'd tend to believe them given the fact XG made it public that AM's losses at Mullett were over $10M.

 

[brentashton]

Edmonton's average attendance dipped below 13K ONCE. Coyotes have been there 4 out 12 seasons before moving to Mullet.

I was at many games in Edmonton over that time period. I stand by my assertion of crowds in attendance/ interested in watching the team at less than 10k many times.

 

[Reaser]

For anyone who works in media, Forbes franchise values are like Nielson's ratings.

We all know they're not accurate, but it's the best we've got, and at least they're probably all wrong in the same direction, because they work off a common set of assumptions.

Yup, though a major difference is that Forbes valuations are guesstimates of what's behind the curtain while Nielsen data is what's behind the curtain.

If you're buying a sports team you don't use Forbes #s, you want to see the actual books.

If you're buying ad spots, you want to see the Nielsen data.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

Is anyone saying it will be resolved in three months?

My impression is approval for the sale of the land could be resolved in three months.

Then the piece of land needs to be re-zoned, financing for the actual arena needs to be figured out, the city needs to approve infrastructure improvements to supply the area.

If everything goes perfectly (which it won't), you won't see shovels in the ground until early 2025.

How likely is it that the league goes for this plan if there's still so many uncertain variables at such a juncture?

 

[DustyDangler]

For me if this deal gets done, it's up to people of Pheonix to prove that hockey works. Now they will an Arena in good location.

My issue with Phoenix and lot of these teams is the amount of fairweather fans they have. They show up when the team is winning but as soon as they go back down the standings the majority stay away again.

I don't expect teams to sell out when they are losing but expect more than 10,000 a game.

Other than the early years and a 2012 blip, the weather has not been fair in Phoenix so not really any such thing as a fair weather Coyotes fan. When you encounter a Coyotes fan, you are encountering someone who has gone through tornadoes, hurricanes & countless haboobs year after year after year.

Other than these Mullet years, the worst attendance years were 09-10 through 11-12 when they were averaging around 12,000. Early years in downtown was 15,500 and that was in an obstructed view basketball arena. Between '96-97 & '19-20 their average attendance was 14,116. So, they have historically well exceeded your expectations of more than 10,000 a game. Sidenote too, their 14,116 is higher than the current average attendance for Jets 2.0 and the San Jose Sharks.

Most all of those Coyotes teams were quite bad so to have 14k show up year after year with all the distractions and negative pub around the organization is pretty solid.

Compare too the Coyotes to another team that had big struggles, the Penguins.

In 1983-84 Penguins avg attendance was 6839.They don't have attendance issues anymore because...

1984 1OA - Mario Lemieux
2004 2OA - Evgeni Malkin
2005 1OA - Sidney Crosby

In the history of the Phoenix/Arizona Coyotes they have never received a 1OA or 2OA pick. What would Pittsburgh attendance be today without those 3 players? Would they even exist? So to have 14k show up for bad hockey and no draft favor, would shine pretty brightly over how other markets might fair under similar circumstances.