CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[Lions67]

The only absolute truth in all of this is this:
Arizona IS a failed market.
We have 26 years of undeniable proof of it.
Any argument against this FACT is nothing more than apologists and excuse makers.
Arizona is 100% a failed market.
I don’t think you could save it with a reset either.
Just move this sorry sack of garbage.

So they closed the purchase of the Jets without actually having the landing spot finalized first?? Or this was during the negotiation period?

Pretty much yes.

 

[PredsHead]

So they closed the purchase of the Jets without actually having the landing spot finalized first?? Or this was during the negotiation period?

Yes they closed without having the deal with Minnesota done. Here is a bit of synopsis from an article at the time:

The Winnipeg Jets were sold Wednesday to an American group for $68 million and will likely move to Minneapolis after the 1995-96 season. A group headed by investor Richard Burke of Minneapolis and Steve Gluckstern purchased the Jets from Barry Shenkarow with the intention of relocating the team to Minnesota, which has been without a National Hockey League team since the North Stars left for Dallas after the 1992- 93 season. 'If the team does not end up in Minneapolis, it won't be because Richard Burke didn't work hard to try to get the deal done,' Shenkarow said at a morning news conference. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said last week that he wanted the city of Minneapolis to come to an agreement with Burke after he officially purchased the team from Shenkarow. 'It would be nice to go back to Minneapolis,' said Bettman last week. 'In terms of stabilizing the league, it certainly would help.' Negotiations are ongoing between Burke and Minneapolis officials.

NHL Jets sold, likely going to Minnesota - UPI Archives

 

[KevFu]

The only absolute truth in all of this is this:
Arizona IS a failed market.
We have 26 years of undeniable proof of it.
Any argument against this FACT is nothing more than apologists and excuse makers.
Arizona is 100% a failed market.
I don’t think you could save it with a reset either.
Just move this sorry sack of garbage.


Pretty much yes.

This is non-sense. Since people are discussing the scientific method, if Arizona is a failed market than other teams with the same statistics of revenue, attendance, etc would also be failed markets.

But we've seen dozens of examples where it isn't the case.
No one calls Winnipeg a failed market, despite their attendance being low
> due to population size and arena size; okay. so attendance can be tossed out as a metric to judge a failed market.

NBA arena with bad sightlines lowering attendance.
Bad location away from fan base.
Terrible lease that cost them revenues.
Terrible team that fans avoided.
Failed Entertainment District project that rendered them practically homeless.
Bottom of the league in revenues.

Those things all applied to my Islanders. You can't say NEW YORK is a failed market when the Rangers were #1 in revenue, the Devils #15 and the Islanders #29... all at the same time, in the same market.

Calling Arizona a failed market isn't Truth, Fact, 100% anything other than 100% opinion.

 

[PainForShane]

This is non-sense. Since people are discussing the scientific method, if Arizona is a failed market than other teams with the same statistics of revenue, attendance, etc would also be failed markets.

But we've seen dozens of examples where it isn't the case.
No one calls Winnipeg a failed market, despite their attendance being low
> due to population size and arena size; okay. so attendance can be tossed out as a metric to judge a failed market.

NBA arena with bad sightlines lowering attendance.
Bad location away from fan base.
Terrible lease that cost them revenues.
Terrible team that fans avoided.
Failed Entertainment District project that rendered them practically homeless.
Bottom of the league in revenues.

Those things all applied to my Islanders. You can't say NEW YORK is a failed market when the Rangers were #1 in revenue, the Devils #15 and the Islanders #29... all at the same time, in the same market.

Calling Arizona a failed market isn't Truth, Fact, 100% anything other than 100% opinion.

Ha, I wish ppl were discussing the scientific method. If so that would clear up all of these misunderstandings. Instead multiple ppl here are showing an incredible level of ignorance by continuing to argue the main principle behind hypothesis testing (ie the basis of all of science) is somehow not valid and / or doesn't exist. Not what I expected to be discussing on a hockey board ha.

Anyway, 100% on all everything you said.

A few years ago it was, "hockey will never work in the desert" now it's "hockey will never work in Arizona." If we're able to move into a centrally located arena (big if), the team will be fine. Re: market, this is one of the biggest metros in the US, far bigger than Vegas which everyone agrees has a successful team. The market is clearly fine for sports incl hockey.

And to go ahead with the Isles' example -- this was a dynasty team in the 80s, because of arena situation they really fell on hard times for decades. Arenas matter, that's been the main problem here for quite a while. You solve that and things will be fine here (esp considering the team we're building on the ice)

 

[Lions67]

This is non-sense. Since people are discussing the scientific method, if Arizona is a failed market than other teams with the same statistics of revenue, attendance, etc would also be failed markets.

But we've seen dozens of examples where it isn't the case.
No one calls Winnipeg a failed market, despite their attendance being low
> due to population size and arena size; okay. so attendance can be tossed out as a metric to judge a failed market.

NBA arena with bad sightlines lowering attendance.
Bad location away from fan base.
Terrible lease that cost them revenues.
Terrible team that fans avoided.
Failed Entertainment District project that rendered them practically homeless.
Bottom of the league in revenues.

Those things all applied to my Islanders. You can't say NEW YORK is a failed market when the Rangers were #1 in revenue, the Devils #15 and the Islanders #29... all at the same time, in the same market.

Calling Arizona a failed market isn't Truth, Fact, 100% anything other than 100% opinion.

You my friend are an example of an apologist and an excuse maker.

 

[KevFu]

You my friend are an example of an apologist and an excuse maker.

No, I'm a realist, a pragmatist and consistent.

And your view is inconsistent and logically false.

You're not using objective criteria to define a failed market, you're merely pointing to a team you don't like and saying "fail."

Define the criteria of a failed market. Apply it to all 32 franchises and 36 markets that had teams and see who's on your list of failed markets.

Your definition of a "failed market" would make about 25 of 32 teams failed markets. Which is just stupid since they all continue to exist to this day (including the Coyotes).

 

[Stumbledore]

Define the criteria of a failed market. Apply it to all 32 franchises and 36 markets that had teams and see who's on your list of failed markets.

Your definition of a "failed market" would make about 25 of 32 teams failed markets. Which is just stupid since they all continue to exist to this day (including the Coyotes).

I'm confused.

You ask him to define his criteria and then in the very same post you apply his definition. When did you get his definition?

FWIW, I totally agree with the bolded part.

 

[Voight]

My previous comment about Bettman talking to the politicians through the media is mostly directed to PHX. Out of everything that is an option locally at this point the method that seems to be the messiest but in the long term best is for the team to be sold to the sun's owner on the premise that a new building is built or another intense round of renovations takes place to bring it up to snuff for hockey but further enhance is for all events. Ishba can sit there and say he isn't interested or is lukewarm but if the league can get him more massive improvements to his facility or help him in other ways financially through negotiations with the local government then perhaps his interest in the team increases and there can finally be some stability.

SLC and Atlanta are getting the next two expansion teams and they are going to pay 900m or 1b to get in. The league isn't pissing that away by giving them a team on a discounted relocation fee. Houston is the one place the team might relocate it on the cheap bc it's obvious the rockets owner is lukewarm about owning the team, he isnt willing to pay a crazy price for it but he has the market asset that the league wants. That's a place you can play with real numbers and how they are presented to the public to make it look like he paid more than he did for the team. He isn't a guy who is waving money around at the league the way SLC and Atlanta are.

Depends on the price IMO. Ishbia dropped a good chunk of change when he bought his portion of the Suns. Most of his net worth is tied up in the family business. If Meruelo tries to get what the Sens got then good luck getting Ishbia to buy.

 

[Voight]

Coming from a 29 year old journeyman, an undrafted player on his 5th team with less than 20 career goals

He also played for the Coyotes this past season. He just happy to have job.

The number of people who "argue the argument" instead of "arguing the topic" is astounding.

Yeah, it takes more than one to disprove a theory. And seven UFAs signed with the Coyotes.

Now I'll wait for the "But no one else wanted those guys" when it's July 5th and not August 5th.

Journeymen and lower end players aren't dumb enough to refuse to sign with an NHL team, even if its with the Coyotes. They have no leverage. Even when Donald Sterling was routinely labelled as the worst owner in the NBA the Clippers (who were awful pretty much his entire near 30 year tenure) still signed free agents. There are only so jobs available in pro sports, especially at the highest level.

 

[KevFu]

I'm confused.

You ask him to define his criteria and then in the very same post you apply his definition. When did you get his definition?

FWIW, I totally agree with the bolded part.

I just went right to an assumption of the usual tropes.

The concept of "failed market" just cannot logically exist, period. The Islanders, Rangers and Devils sharing a market disproves it.

Because they share a market and do not have identical attendance and revenue... "Circumstance" must exist to account for why the same market has three revenue/attendance outcomes.

Determining the "Value" of Market vs Circumstance is really easy:

New York is the biggest market, the Rangers were #1 in revenue. So Market matters.
But "Circumstance" takes the Devils down to like 14-16 in revenue and the Islanders all the way down to #29 out of 30.

Therefore the value of circumstance is at least 28 places in revenue standings between NYI and NYR.

Therefore it can be said that a change in "Circumstance" could lead the Coyotes from #32 in revenue to #4. It's possible the circumstance is even higher, but it's not impossible to be that high.

And Since the #4 teams in revenues aren't viewed as failures, it logically stands to reason that Arizona is not a failed market, but has terrible circumstance.

He also played for the Coyotes this past season. He just happy to have job.



Journeymen and lower end players aren't dumb enough to refuse to sign with an NHL team, even if its with the Coyotes. They have no leverage. Even when Donald Sterling was routinely labelled as the worst owner in the NBA the Clippers (who were awful pretty much his entire near 30 year tenure) still signed free agents. There are only so jobs available in pro sports, especially at the highest level.

Keep reading the thread to my next post...

 

[KevFu]

It's also incredibly offensive to Canadians to say that their greatest export "can't work" anywhere.

If you're saying that the Arizona is a failed market, you're saying that hockey isn't great enough to win-over any specific human being. I refuse to accept that, and it's also just logically dumb based on the number of transplants that exist in the Phoenix metro area.

PHX is one of the most transplant heavy metropolises on the planet. It's a cross section of North America. So the idea that the cross section of North American can't love hockey is insane.

Sure, you could argue that people move there because they don't like cold things and hockey is cold. But that's counter-intuitive. When you live where it's routinely 106 to 114 every day for months, the idea of ICE is wonderful. Seriously, I cannot stress this enough. When it's hotter than Satan's Taint, ICE SPORTS sound fantastic. Beer commercials are made on this concepts all the time.

I refuse to accept the concept that hockey can't win fans anywhere on the planet. It's too amazing for that. And I treat people saying Phoenix is a failed market as an attack on Canada's greatest export. (No offense, Ryan Reynolds).

 

[Stumbledore]

I just went right to an assumption of the usual tropes.

The concept of "failed market" just cannot logically exist, period. The Islanders, Rangers and Devils sharing a market disproves it.

Arguing by assumption and anticipation is never a good idea.

I'm not sure what "logic" you are using to say that a failed market just cannot exist when there are a number of markets which the NHL has entered and the team has failed there.

While I'm at it, when did people start saying "literally" when they actually mean "figuratively" which is the complete opposite?

 

[Lions67]

26 years. No stability in any of those years. Bankruptcies, bailouts, multiple shady ownership groups, failing in payroll, rent etc.
Referendums. Arena(s) Lack of FANS. Tickets below cost even free at times. Now this one I get. Sometimes when you start out in a place that is not familiar with the game you have to give out a few free samples. But it has been years and years of it. Only now are ticket prices high and only because tue team has to make some sort of money in a rink of 4,600.
26 years. From a high of 17,000 fans in the stands in the early days to today of 4,600 fans now. No guarantees that that will even be met this upcoming season.
And lastly, relying on fan bases from other teams to fill those seats.
So yes.. this is a failed market.
How many years can they keep going this way for you or anyone else to admit that this has been a failure.

 

[KevFu]

26 years.
No stability in any of those years.
multiple shady ownership groups,
failing in payroll, rent
Referendums. Arena(s)
Lack of FANS.
Tickets below cost even free at times. Now this one I get.

Right, and how is this different from the Islanders, who are the #12 most valuable franchise with a new arena?

 

[jonathan613]

26 years. No stability in any of those years. Bankruptcies, bailouts, multiple shady ownership groups, failing in payroll, rent etc.
Referendums. Arena(s) Lack of FANS. Tickets below cost even free at times. Now this one I get. Sometimes when you start out in a place that is not familiar with the game you have to give out a few free samples. But it has been years and years of it. Only now are ticket prices high and only because tue team has to make some sort of money in a rink of 4,600.
26 years. From a high of 17,000 fans in the stands in the early days to today of 4,600 fans now. No guarantees that that will even be met this upcoming season.
And lastly, relying on fan bases from other teams to fill those seats.
So yes.. this is a failed market.
How many years can they keep going this way for you or anyone else to admit that this has been a failure.

When the coyotes have a stable arena location near downtown phoenix along with an owner who is prepared to field a competitive team. If fans do not come then, i will concede your point. Until that point, you need be able to distinguish between failed markets and failed ownership groups.

 

[Lions67]

When the coyotes have a stable arena location near downtown phoenix along with an owner who is prepared to field a competitive team. If fans do not come then, i will concede your point. Until that point, you need be able to distinguish between failed markets and failed ownership groups.

They had that before. It didn’t work.

 

[jonathan613]

They had that before. It didn’t work.

Not true. The facility was not a hockey facility as it had tons of obstructions

Not true. The facility was not a hockey facility as it had tons of obstructions

also the team was not able to get revenue streams from that arena in downtown phx that are standard for NHL teams.

 

[KevFu]

Arguing by assumption and anticipation is never a good idea.

I'm not sure what "logic" you are using to say that a failed market just cannot exist when there are a number of markets which the NHL has entered and the team has failed there.

While I'm at it, when did people start saying "literally" when they actually mean "figuratively" which is the complete opposite?

A) apologies for any hyperbole, which I hate but still accidentally resort to.

B) Failed Markets don't exist... "a number of markets which the NHL has entered and the team has failed there" includes TEAMS that failed, but replacement teams coming back like Minnesota, Bay Area/San Jose, New York/New Jersey, Colorado and Winnipeg; And God willing Quebec City.

Saying "Markets fail" is a cop out. Be consistent. The people who LIKE saying Atlanta and Phoenix are "failed markets" would never admit that Winnipeg and Quebec are "Failed markets."

I'm consistent. And that's why I lashed out at someone saying I was making "excuses." Winnipeg, Quebec City and Minnesota didn't "fail" as markets. They lacked modern arenas. That's circumstance. With new arenas, Winnipeg and Minnesota are still great markets, and QC will be again hopefully.

Be consistent in your argument. Define a failed market for me please. What metrics constitute a failed market?

If your metrics for a failed market work, they will apply and work for EVERY former NHL franchise incantation. There is legitimately nothing that works for the evidence/stats we have unless you get ultra-literal with non-number arguments. It's objectively impossible.

 

[Lions67]

Ever been to the Winnipeg Arena ??
Lots of obstructed seats there as well. Yet we went and paid top dollar ( for that time ) PHX was basically giving them away, which again as I said before I understand the reasoning. Still didn’t make a difference.
Revenue streams.. ok I will concede that one as I don’t know the particulars there.
But!!… all those fans did not follow the team to Glendale in a brand new state of the art facility. All streams going to tue team, rent free when the city had a gun to their head by the league to keep them only to screw the city over and basically get evicted.
That is not something that screams stability now does it. No, it does the opposite.
Back to PHX for a second. Why won’t they build the new arena there now?
Because it isn’t feasible. Bottom line.
And that is another fail on top of many fails in Arizona.

 

[Tawnos]

While I'm at it, when did people start saying "literally" when they actually mean "figuratively" which is the complete opposite?

Probably at least 25 years ago. It was used that way when I was in high school in the late 90s.

Either way, this conversation might be the worst one in the history of the mega threads. Seriously people, trying to apply scientific method to whether or not a market has failed or not based on whether or not some players want to sign there? Yikes.

 

[bleedblue94]

Depends on the price IMO. Ishbia dropped a good chunk of change when he bought his portion of the Suns. Most of his net worth is tied up in the family business. If Meruelo tries to get what the Sens got then good luck getting Ishbia to buy.

He can't though anyways. People keep mentioning the sens as if the sens themselves sold for 950. The sens were prob worth less alone than the real estate and the right to build their true cash cow of the future. The team was a conduit to that. If ishbia buys the yotes it's not for a real estate development. Best it could be is to use it to angle for funding to upgrade his arena again.

 

[MNNumbers]

Right, and how is this different from the Islanders, who are the #12 most valuable franchise with a new arena?

TV contract?

 

[Salsero1]

Ever been to the Winnipeg Arena ??
Lots of obstructed seats there as well. Yet we went and paid top dollar ( for that time ) PHX was basically giving them away, which again as I said before I understand the reasoning. Still didn’t make a difference.
Revenue streams.. ok I will concede that one as I don’t know the particulars there.
But!!… all those fans did not follow the team to Glendale in a brand new state of the art facility. All streams going to tue team, rent free when the city had a gun to their head by the league to keep them only to screw the city over and basically get evicted.
That is not something that screams stability now does it. No, it does the opposite.
Back to PHX for a second. Why won’t they build the new arena there now?
Because it isn’t feasible. Bottom line.
And that is another fail on top of many fails in Arizona.

Bruh, you have a team again, leave the Yotes and their fans alone. You're like a guy who's girlfriend left him for someone else, then bitterly complained for years, then found a new gf and married her, but still wants to hurt the other guy your ex is with. Let it go. Has nothing to do with you.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Right, and how is this different from the Islanders, who are the #12 most valuable franchise with a new arena?

You've made this comparison before & it's disingenuous. Even when they needed a new building, at a minimum the Isles always had a solid fanbase, & a great TV deal that basically guaranteed they broke even during the worst of their down years.

 

[Salsero1]

You've made this comparison before & it's disingenuous. Even when they needed a new building, at a minimum the Isles always had a solid fanbase, & a great TV deal that basically guaranteed they broke even during the worst of their down years.

New York Islanders yearly attendance at hockeydb.com

A historical graph of the yearly attendance for the New York Islanders of the National Hockey League.

www.hockeydb.com

Why are these numbers indicative of a solid fanbase? I call BS, the the NVMC held over 15K. Numbers like that would be considered unacceptable if the Isles played in any location where New Yorkers currently flee to today.

I hate the double standard, why is low attendance justifiable here but not there? If one market gets bashed for attendance problems, then all of them should. If context and circumstance matter in one market, then they should matter in all of them.