KevFu
Registered User
Fair argument and while I know I'm keeping us afield from Legend's great work a little longer, I will say that you have to be very careful to fall into a sunk cost fallacy when you say "you'll alienate fans in Phoenix." By that logic, no one ever moves ever and while I know moves should be *rare*, saying they should be non-existent is a tad absurd. One could easily argue that 25+ years of rotating clown shows has done more to alienate a good deal of Arizonians from hockey than a relocation ever could.
Generally most (not all but most) at least agree that the NHL screwed the pooch by moving the Jets to Phoenix when they did as they did. Going to Phoenix? Some might agree, some might not. As they did it? Pretty uniform agreement it was done terribly and they've been playing behind the eight-ball in the market ever since.
Living in Atlanta, I often genuinely wonder if hockey would be more popular here if the Flames had never been founded for Atlanta in the first place. You'd be surprised how often I conclude that "actually, it probably would be....."
Bringing it back to the subject at hand, I guess I was oblivious there's been a Wiki page for the proposed arena for many months now. So there's that, I guess :-D
I think we're moving a lot closer in our views than our our original posts to each other sounded. I understand the sunk cost fallacy, but, and I say this as an MFing Islanders fan since 1987 who knows how the lease/arena situation effects finances (and we're just NOW out the other side and an ACTUAL NHL franchise on equal footing as everyone else for the first time since they allowed ads on the boards in 1985/86....)
The Coyotes haven't had a freaking prayer to be successful in 25 years. You're right that 25 years of doing it wrong can totally make a fan base non-receptive. But the Coyotes have never had a single season of playing in an NHL Arena, ACCESSIBLE TO THE MARKET. Not sure how long you've been reading before replying, but I live here. I'd own Coyotes season tickets if my office was in Glendale, but it's in Gilbert so I live in Gilbert. My first year living here, I left the Gilbert office at 5 for the Islanders game, got to the arena with 6:23 left in the first period.
I have taken a day off from work when the Islanders are in town ever since. I can't get to the arena. I'm in the East Valley and the arena is on the western edge of the west valley. People who don't live here talk about "East Valley" and "West Valley" like it's "Left" or "Right" of downtown Phoenix. That's not what this market is.
The market is shaped like a bow-tie. There is an "outer loop" like most market have, designed in the 1930s during the New Deal; that puts Glendale on the outer loop (10 o'clock), and Tempe on the outer loop (3 o'clock). Tempe is the knot of the bow tie. The East Valley is DIVIDED BY MOUNTAINS and "2 million people live there now when it was no one in the 1930s did" situation.
I understand your point about "haven't Phoenix fans been alienated already," but when you break it down by access, the people within 25 minutes of Glendale are like 20% of the market. The people within 20 minutes of Tempe are 90% of the market.
And this is a transplant market. NFL rules sports fandom as way more popular than any other sport. But more people here are Suns fans that Cardinal fans because the Suns had a 22-year head start. You CAN build a hockey fan base here. You just have to do everything in your power to covert the masses. And the arena situation, and the ownership situation has done EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE.
I'm gonna be insane right now. I'm gonna say the Coyotes get the Tempe Arena project approved, build the arena, and in 2032 have a higher franchise value than the Blues and Sabres. Those ARE hockey markets. But the Blues and Sabres are SMALL hockey markets. Phoenix is a market that is huge but hasn't embraced hockey. But if they're ever accessible and don't suck, the market will. Because hockey is awesome and every other sport sucks in comparison. So let's bump this in 2032 and see what is what.
We gotta search this in 10 years, so use #TaylorSwifIsASongwritingGod and find it.