Prospect Info: Current #2 overall poll and discussion

[PizzaAndPucks]

I doubt Montreal passes up on him. I'm sure they are looking into the other highly touted player but I'm certain they take Wright. He is the #1 player. Montreal would riot if they took Cooley or Slafkovsky. That's not the best way to make a name for your self as the new GM. I just hope we get an Allstar player with our pick regardless of what player it is.

 

[glenwo2]

I would be happy if NJ just took Wright, I'd also be happy if NJ were able to trade the pick cause Wright dropped. Ultimately don't think NJ could go wrong but do agree that Slafkovsky to NJ just seems like a perfect match of player and organizational need and would prefer him at this point.

I wouldn't. lol.

 

[Nubmer6]

They have the wrong idea. Its not "How do you fit Wright into the lineup?"
Its "How do you defend against Hischier/Hughes/Wright?"

One of those guys will be up against the Ty Smiths of the world every time they step onto the ice.

They're easier to defend when they have no wingers to support them.

 

[Forge]

They're easier to defend when they have no wingers to support them.

Wingers are the easiest to obtain and if you're doing it externally through something like a trade, require the least amount of compensation between Centers / Wingers / Dmen.

 

[Nubmer6]

Wingers are the easiest to obtain and if you're doing it externally through something like a trade, require the least amount of compensation between Centers / Wingers / Dmen.

Indeed, but in a salary cap world, it's hard to afford 3 elite centers and still have room to squeeze in decent supporting wings.
I'd rather have 2 elite scoring lines and a shutdown 3rd line than 1 elite and 2 mediocre scoring lines.

I suppose that's my old school thinking.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Well, I don't think you do because your mention the same point two paragraphs later. If someone didn't think a player was going to be in the top-four best players of the draft, why would you rank them in the top-four? It's not a prediction.

There are guys Bader was much higher on than consensus last season (Stankoven, Zellweger, Behrens, etc.) who seemed to have progressed very well in their D+1.

Yeah, the model isn't great. But the vitriol is kinda unhinged.

You're literally defending a guy who bases his model 100% on statistics and then uses the wrong statistics.

I'm guessing you missed the group of posts I'm sarcasticly referencing, haha.

Yup, sorry. My bad. Is there a "sarcasm" emoji?

 

[Nubmer6]

Yup, sorry. My bad. Is there a "sarcasm" emoji?

 

[StevenToddIves]

What makes you think Gauthier could become better than Wright? I really like Gauthier, and think he's gonna be great value around the #10 pick +-3, but in no way does he have the same kinda ceiling Wright, Slaf or Nemec has.

I know Wright's stock has dropped and it's the new cool thing to underestimate him, but some people are completely ignoring what kinda junior career he has had prior to this season. This is an exceptional status player putting way over ppg as a 15yo. He's stock has certainly dropped, but you have to know how high it was. Wright still has franchise player potential. Even in his supposed "down year" this season he still outscored Gauthier by a lot (different leagues, but I consider OHL much higher level than USDP outside the few NCAA games).

I think the fact that it has looked like we aren't getting Wright has made some people mentally convince themselves that he isn't even that good.

I agree with you on everything you say here except Gauthier's draft position (I keep hearing Philly at #5 or Columbus at #6).

But when I finished my final rankings, I reviewed both Wright and Slafkovsky at length and decided Shane Wright was the best prospect for the 2021 draft. He's just an incredible hockey talent. Despite a slow start -- likely due to missing the entire 2020-21 season from the pandemic -- he nearly topped 100 points. The one knock against Wright were his OHL playoffs, which I found to be a greatly uninspiring performance. But ultimately, Wright has the highest floor in the class and is among a handful of the highest upsides. I think at the very least he'll be an excellent NHL 2C, and ideally he'll be a two-way, 80-90 point center.

That being said, I still think Montreal will draft him.

i m curious to know what can be the deal to get Pasta, surely not only the second over all pick...

Pastrnak is reportedly not available in a trade, and if he becomes available it will likely be around next year's trade deadline.

Goddamn, I'm old.

 

[Eggtimer]

Yep. There's no need to galaxy-brain this selection. It's Wright or Slafv. Win-win.

I completely agree. Only way it might have been different is if one of Jiricek or Nemec played amazing to end their seasons and made it hard to choose between Wright / Slaf and one of them. Then maybe we accept a trade down and we take Jiricek plus an asset for the other team to take Wright .

However , now I just sprint to the podium and take Wright before anyone can stop us lol.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I completely agree. Only way it might have been different is if one of Jiricek or Nemec played amazing to end their seasons and made it hard to choose between Wright / Slaf and one of them. Then maybe we accept a trade down and we take Jiricek plus an asset for the other team to take Wright .

However , now I just sprint to the podium and take Wright before anyone can stop us lol.

Nemec had an amazing end to his season and used it to pass Jiricek in the general consensus. His Slovak League playoffs were simply unreal.

But yes, it would be tough to pass on Wright.

 

[Eggtimer]

Wingers are the easiest to obtain and if you're doing it externally through something like a trade, require the least amount of compensation between Centers / Wingers / Dmen.

Yup. Prime example - perhaps currently the best (debatable ) LW in the game Gaudreau is days away from being a UFA.

What do we do if Cooley is taken pick #1 !????
So we have to decide between Wright and Slafkovsky. So do we take the “better” prospect in Wright or go with the bigger (pun intended ) need and Slaf or do we risk trading down (I’d only go one spot down ) if we can gain an asset plus still get Slafkovsky .

It is very unlikely but possible. Gettimg Slafkovsky plus an asset would be deadly. Habs picking Cooley would be the very best scenario we can hope for.
But it would be very hard to decide to do Lol.
Would Slafkovsky plus mystery asset for trading down be > just taking Wright and be done with it?

 

[bossram]

You're literally defending a guy who bases his model 100% on statistics and then uses the wrong statistics.

Who am I defending? I said he's wrong and his model isn't great. People are free to ignore it then. In a different sentence, I said there are players the model was high on, that have progressed better than expected. Where would anyone take umbrage with what I said?

Every public scout puts out wacky rankings here and there. Craig Button does it all the time, but Bader gets way more vitriol because it's "analytics". It's just strange.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Who am I defending? I said he's wrong and his model isn't great. People are free to ignore it then. In a different sentence, I said there are players the model was high on, that have progressed better than expected. Where would anyone take umbrage with what I said?

Every public scout puts out wacky rankings here and there. Craig Button does it all the time, but Bader gets way more vitriol because it's "analytics". It's just strange.

This I agree with.

But also, a lot of people go after Button. The difference is, Button and his backers don't reply with the notion that his opinions are science and anyone who disputes them is some idiot retread. Also, Button is a hell of a lot more accurate than Button -- literally everyone in the business is.

 

[Triumph]

This I agree with.

But also, a lot of people go after Button. The difference is, Button and his backers don't reply with the notion that his opinions are science and anyone who disputes them is some idiot retread. Also, Button is a hell of a lot more accurate than Button -- literally everyone in the business is.

I don't care about Bader's followers. That's Twitter bullshit. Does not belong here.

 

[Guadana]

If Slaf wii gone, I'm for trading. Because I prefer D or Gauthier. I did think a lot whom he reminds me. And finally found the answer. Gauthier is close to Arnott in the play of style.

 

[My3Sons]

If Slaf wii gone, I'm for trading. Because I prefer D or Gauthier. I did think a lot whom he reminds me. And finally found the answer. Gauthier is close to Arnott in the play of style.

It depends upon how you see that tier after the top three. If you think that you are happy with any of Nemec Jiricek or Gauthier then sure. I still think that Wright is probably seen as a better prospect than Gauthier by most teams .

 

[Bcap88]

If slaf goes 1, take Wright and run

 

[Hisch13r]

Wingers are the easiest to obtain and if you're doing it externally through something like a trade, require the least amount of compensation between Centers / Wingers / Dmen.

We also DO have wingers. Let's say we keep all 3 of them at center. On the wings there should be Bratt, Yegor, Mercer, Holtz, Gritsyuk. That's 5 guys. That leaves one spot. Really not hard to see how it all fits together. Yeah eventually you're going to run into cap issues but if you pick a good winger you're going to run into those same issues

 

[Guadana]

It depends upon how you see that tier after the top three. If you think that you are happy with any of Nemec Jiricek or Gauthier then sure. I still think that Wright is probably seen as a better prospect than Gauthier by most teams .

Like I said before - its a question of tool pack for specific role. We saw how poorly Hughes did play on the wing. Im not interesting in third line center Shane Wright 50-60 points in ideal world isn't a thing I want from forward, whom I picked by second overall pick. Slafkovsky has much better tools to play on the wing. His ceiling is higher.
And there is no question whom I wanna pick between top 2.
Its a question between third line center or questionable winger Shane Wright(who isn't the best interior forward and isn't the best forechecker) and Nemec/Jiricek/Gauithier+. Gauthier could easily ends it as a better winger. Jiricek and Nemec could easily be top 2 defensemen. Especially if Nemec will start to be much more pro active and challenge opponents.
Potential trading with Columbus could bring us top 2 defenseman or strong physical scoring winger, who can replace injured center, plus something with top -6/top-4 potential. Shane Wright bring us third line center or winger with questionable impact. Player who can replace injured center and being better version of himself. In the limited timeline. I prefer trading with Columbus.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I'm lower on Wright than most, so if he were to fall to #2 I'd be all for trading back since you're probably going to get good value for the pick with Wright still on the board.

 

[Bcap88]

We also DO have wingers. Let's say we keep all 3 of them at center. On the wings there should be Bratt, Yegor, Mercer, Holtz, Gritsyuk. That's 5 guys. That leaves one spot. Really not hard to see how it all fits together. Yeah eventually you're going to run into cap issues but if you pick a good winger you're going to run into those same issues

I disagree I don’t believe we have wingers. You named Bratt,yegor and mercer as of right now that’s it. Holtz and gritsyuk still haven’t cracked tbe nhl lineup and as they looks of it zacha,Tatar and Johansson will be gone in a year

 

[My3Sons]

Like I said before - its a question of tool pack for specific role. We saw how poorly Hughes did play on the wing. Im not interesting in third line center Shane Wright 50-60 points in ideal world isn't a thing I want from forward, whom I picked by second overall pick. Slafkovsky has much better tools to play on the wing. His ceiling is higher.
And there is no question whom I wanna pick between top 2.
Its a question between third line center or questionable winger Shane Wright(who isn't the best interior forward and isn't the best forechecker) and Nemec/Jiricek/Gauithier+. Gauthier could easily ends it as a better winger. Jiricek and Nemec could easily be top 2 defensemen. Especially if Nemec will start to be much more pro active and challenge opponents.
Potential trading with Columbus could bring us top 2 defenseman or strong physical scoring winger, who can replace injured center, plus something with top -6/top-4 potential. Shane Wright bring us third line center or winger with questionable impact. Player who can replace injured center and being better version of himself. In the limited timeline. I prefer trading with Columbus.

All of which is fair but I’m not sure Wright can’t be a good wing player for Hughes or Hischier. I will defer to you and @StevenToddIves on these issues since you have put in the time and effort to justify your opinions and you both share very detailed explanations of why you see the prospects the way you do. I’m not opposed to a trade down in any scenario. If NJ traded 2 for 6 and 12 and got Gauthier and another top prosect at 12 (Yurov?) I’m perfectly fine with that. It’s good value. I am just suggesting that the NJ scouts may see Wright as a good fit on wing also. Or that they can move him for a good young vet and a lower first although the names that keep getting offered like Miller and DeBrincat and Nylander aren’t great fits because of contracts.

 

[Eggtimer]

I disagree I don’t believe we have wingers. You named Bratt,yegor and mercer as of right now that’s it. Holtz and gritsyuk still haven’t cracked tbe nhl lineup and as they looks of it zacha,Tatar and Johansson will be gone in a year

Same, we can’t rely on Hotlz and Grits (yet). And I’m not completely sold on Shara as a top line winger (yet). Yes he is “good” , and is okay for now but I’d prefer to have a stud in that spot eventually . However rthst is the least of our worries for now.

 

[StevenToddIves]

All of which is fair but I’m not sure Wright can’t be a good wing player for Hughes or Hischier. I will defer to you and @StevenToddIves on these issues since you have put in the time and effort to justify your opinions and you both share very detailed explanations of why you see the prospects the way you do. I’m not opposed to a trade down in any scenario. If NJ traded 2 for 6 and 12 and got Gauthier and another top prosect at 12 (Yurov?) I’m perfectly fine with that. It’s good value. I am just suggesting that the NJ scouts may see Wright as a good fit on wing also. Or that they can move him for a good young vet and a lower first although the names that keep getting offered like Miller and DeBrincat and Nylander aren’t great fits because of contracts.

Here's a fun mock draft hypothetical, contingent on Montreal picking Slafkovsky and the Devils trading #2 for #6 and #12 (not that we know Columbus would agree, of course):

1 MTL Slafkovsky
2 CLB Wright
3 ARI Cooley
4 SEA Nemec
5 PHI Gauthier
6 NJ Jiricek
7 OTT Geekie
8 DET Kasper
9 BUF Savoie
10 ANH Kemell
11 SJ Lambert
12 NJ Yurov
13 NYI Chesley

Of course, the #6 pick would be contingent on Philadelphia's pick, as I've heard equal stories of their interest in Jiricek and Gauthier. So, now let's go with hypothetical #2, where the Flyers take Jiricek, because I think that also affects the #12 pick.

1 MTL Slafkovsky
2 CLB Wright
3 ARI Cooley
4 SEA Nemec
5 PHI Jiricek
6 NJ Gauthier
7 OTT Geekie
8 DET Kasper
9 BUF Savoie
10 ANH Kemell
11 SJ Lambert
12 NJ Chesley
13 NYI Yurov

I'm fine with either of these scenarios, because the Devils get a RD who can partner long-term with Luke Hughes on the top pairing, as well as the interior/power forward they need for the top 6. But again, would Columbus be interested in such a deal, even as much as they need a #1 C for the foreseeable future?

 

[My3Sons]

Here's a fun mock draft hypothetical, contingent on Montreal picking Slafkovsky and the Devils trading #2 for #6 and #12 (not that we know Columbus would agree, of course):

1 MTL Slafkovsky
2 CLB Wright
3 ARI Cooley
4 SEA Nemec
5 PHI Gauthier
6 NJ Jiricek
7 OTT Geekie
8 DET Kasper
9 BUF Savoie
10 ANH Kemell
11 SJ Lambert
12 NJ Yurov
13 NYI Chesley

Of course, the #6 pick would be contingent on Philadelphia's pick, as I've heard equal stories of their interest in Jiricek and Gauthier. So, now let's go with hypothetical #2, where the Flyers take Jiricek, because I think that also affects the #12 pick.

1 MTL Slafkovsky
2 CLB Wright
3 ARI Cooley
4 SEA Nemec
5 PHI Jiricek
6 NJ Gauthier
7 OTT Geekie
8 DET Kasper
9 BUF Savoie
10 ANH Kemell
11 SJ Lambert
12 NJ Chesley
13 NYI Yurov

I'm fine with either of these scenarios, because the Devils get a RD who can partner long-term with Luke Hughes on the top pairing, as well as the interior/power forward they need for the top 6. But again, would Columbus be interested in such a deal, even as much as they need a #1 C for the foreseeable future?

Presumably NJ would have to add something decent to balance the trade a bit unless Columbus sees Wright a full tier ahead of whoever is at 6?