Mr Bojanglez
Registered User
Hard to be upset if we end up with Shane Wright. You figure it out. Guys will get their minutes.
Prospect Info: Current #2 overall poll and discussion
- Thread starter Captain3rdLine
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I'm against drafting Wright but I agree, if we draft him, we are adding a talented player who will find a spot.
But, and I'm being a little hypocritical in that I want Slaf, the dearth of RHD in the organization is a dearth for a reason. We have invested near zero draft capital in the position since 2014. Conversely we have invested significant draft capital into the center position in recent years. Do we continue that trend and continue to let the RHD position be a glaring hole?
Trade needs to be worth it, but say the #6 and #12 are on the table, I take that easily.
I would consider this too, given that we would likely end up with one of Nemec/Jiricek/Gauthier (plus the extra first round talent/potential trade chip) and that's a fine result.
However, I think Columbus is unlikely to consider it fair value to give up a mid-round first to move up 4 spots. And I don't think we would accept anything less than that.
This is why I believe the most likely scenario is that we hold onto the pick, and take whichever one of Slafkovsky and Wright that Montreal doesn't pick.
Captain3rdLine
Registered User
- Sep 24, 2020
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I can’t believe people take Bader’s work seriously.
If you look in the comments you’ll see multiple reputable people tell him that Gauthier didn’t actually score 50 goals.
He’s getting his numbers from elite prospects where they separate USHL games from USDP but the USHL games still fall under USDP. So he doubled up on 22 games and 19 goals.
I’d imagine he’s been doing this with all of the USDP players and the numbers in his model are off.
It’s pretty embarrassing for a guy who bases everything off the numbers to not even have the right numbers.
To me it's more about the players available at the respective spots, then just "4 spots". As well as the certainty of the pick.
Say MTL picks Slaf. The trade would be for Wright, they know who they are getting. If they hold at 6, they don't know how many centers go before them, and which center they would have to choose from.
Or what if Wright goes #1 and they really want Cooley, they can still trade up and get a high end center.
The trade would make sense from CBJ's perspective if, they really want a center and they have Wright and Cooley significantly higher then the other centers.
Edit: We could also add from our end. Not sure what would make sense from a value standpoint.
Mr Bojanglez
Registered User
I get it - as our team is currently constructed we don't quite need another center. And I'm big on Slaf as well, and excited for potential consolation prizes / trades for the RHD.
But... things will change over the years. Players come/go, become available. I won't be upset with drafting him. I personally wouldn't even go crazy trying to trade the pick.
Imagine he pans out, and becomes a top line center with a couple all-star seasons under his belt? I realize you can say the same about any/all players. Just with the spotlight he has on him.
If I told you all 6 months ago we were likely going to draft Shane Wright - many would be quite happy.
Thing's do change, they change via the moves you make.
As I note the reason we have an organizational dearth at RHD is because we have invested so little draft capital into that position. Now that has been muted because we signed Hamilton, but that did require paying $9 mil per to a guy who is going to be in his 30's for the majority of his deal.
And that dearth is forcing our hand to either sign Sev's to a big contract which will also extend into his 30's or make some other move to fill that spot. Either way it will be pretty costly.
Not to mention the Subban deal, which maybe didn't cost a ton via assets, but he and his contract was a bit of an anchor for 3 years.
Now we don't necessarily need to draft RHD with our top pick, like I said, I'm in on Slaf, but if you don't go RHD early, then it does force your hand in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Waiting till the 5th round likely isn't going to cut it.
Things also change via guys getting older. So yeah, Hamilton is 29, Sev's turn 28 in a couple months. Not old yet, but those clocks are ticking.
I'm really talking myself into trading the #2, especially if that Columbus trade is more then just a fanboard pipe dream.
Forge
Blissfully Mediocre
Is he eligible for the AHL?
According to this, he's under contract for one more year in Liiga
Juraj Slafkovsky: 2022 NHL Draft Prospect Profile; A Dynamic, Highly-Skilled, Power Forward
In today’s prospect profile, we will take a look at Slovakian left wing Juraj Slafkovsky who has already emerged as a favorite prospect amongst the New Jersey Devils fanbase. Let’s get to know more about this prospect and why he could make a lot of sense for the Devils as they hold the 2nd...
www.allaboutthejersey.com
I thought his contract was done, but I'm no longer sure that's the case.
glenwo2
JESPER BRATWURST
can he get out of the contract? I don't know how these things work.Is he eligible for the AHL?
According to this, he's under contract for one more year in Liiga
Juraj Slafkovsky: 2022 NHL Draft Prospect Profile; A Dynamic, Highly-Skilled, Power Forward
In today’s prospect profile, we will take a look at Slovakian left wing Juraj Slafkovsky who has already emerged as a favorite prospect amongst the New Jersey Devils fanbase. Let’s get to know more about this prospect and why he could make a lot of sense for the Devils as they hold the 2nd...
I thought his contract was done, but I'm no longer sure that's the case.
Forge
Blissfully Mediocre
I don't think he can get out of it, but I'm not sure what the transfer agreement is with Finland. I'm assuming it is the same as Sweden's ? If I remember right, when Boqvist first came over, we had to keep him on the active NHL roster until after the new year. Couldn't send him down to the AHL or he'd have to be returned to the SHL
Forge
Blissfully Mediocre
I thought it was an SHL thing, but I just assumed it was a blanket transfer agreement for the entire league (and potentially multiple leagues...I wasn't sure if each league had it's own different transfer agreement or what)
Bader is an idiot. But I will say I made the same mistake at some point this year when debating US-NTDP players. However, my prospect rankings are perennially light years more accurate than Bader's, and I don't base my rankings 100% on numbers.
You are absolutely correct that a guy basing his entire algorithm on numbers is completely exposed as the charlatan he is if he's feeding his algorithm incorrect numbers.
What's both sad and funny is any time you go on social media to dispute Bader's incessant inaccuracies, his followers come after you with cult-like fury and make it seem like you're some troglodyte caveman who somehow is below Bader. He's literally the weakest draft ranker on the planet right now. Last year he literally missed 4 of the top 5 picks. A monkey could outperform him by pointing at photographs of draft eligibles.
I'm sure whomever the Devils draft will wind up outside the top 10 in a redraft in 5 years 
ninetyeight
Registered User
Shane Wright probably ends up being a 60-80pts top6 two-way forward, but there's also a decent chance the last few seasons have been anomalies (well he didn't even play in the covid season 20-21) and he becomes an absolute monster franchise talent. This guy was already an above ppg player in the OHL as a 15yo. He didn't play last season (a year ago), but he did play 5 games in the u18 wc and put up an incredible 14pts. This year's 94pts in 63games is very good especially for a defensively solid forward. But there's a very real chance that the whole covid period and not playing for a year caused this to be his low point. If he somehow bounces back the the trajectory he was precovid, there's a chance he's gonna be an incredible superstar player.
If montreal somehow passes on Wright, we trade down and Wright becomes the player he was projected to be as a 15yo, that could be the mistake of the decade.
If montreal somehow passes on Wright, we trade down and Wright becomes the player he was projected to be as a 15yo, that could be the mistake of the decade.
Captain3rdLine
Registered User
- Sep 24, 2020
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He definitely can because there’s been lots of discussion including from his dad about him playing in the NHL next year.
That’s why if the Habs pass on him, Fitz should just immediately run to the podium with a sh*t eating grin on his face.
I don't think Bader's approach is particularly good (there are other, much better data-based draft models), but to be accurate, it's not a mock-draft model. It's about how good players are going to be in the future.
- Feb 5, 2010
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I really hope we hold this pick because we are in such a good spot. I'd sprint to the podium and pick Wright if Montreal is stupid enough to pass on him. If not, Slaf it is and boy does he fill a need.
Yep. There's no need to galaxy-brain this selection. It's Wright or Slafv. Win-win.
Exactly. And this doesn’t feel like the Nico vs Nolan debate. Wright doesn’t have the crazy injury history that Nolan Patrick had. If the Habs pass on Wright, it’s a no-brained for the Devils.
I'm not sure what the complaint is, here.I'm sure whomever the Devils draft will wind up outside the top 10 in a redraft in 5 years
Last year's #4 overall pick Luke Hughes goes either #1 or #2 in a 2021 redraft.
In a 2020 redraft Mercer was picked #18 and likely goes top 10 in a redraft, while #7 pick Holtz likely goes just outside the top top.
In 2019, Luke Hughes goes #1 in a redraft.
Where exactly is the idea that whomever the Devils draft goes outside the top 10 in a re-draft?
Yes, I understand this fully. Which doesn't change my point -- his model is awful at projecting how good players are going to be in the future.
Not only is the model very bad, but as @Captain3rdLine correctly pointed out, he's not even competent enough to feed the correct numbers into his own flawed model.
Since Bader does not watch hockey, he does not understand the disparity between the actual US-NTDP schedule and the eliteprospects.com website, which is essentially his singular reference. Furthermore, Bader does not know how to correctly incorporate tournament play statistics into his model, so he constantly disparages them as he has done all year long with Juraj Slafkovsky and all last year with Mason McTavish.
Again, we're talking about a guy who picked ZERO of the top 4 picks last year in his final top 4. If you gave a monkey a photograph of the consensus top 20 and had the monkey pick the top 4 by randomly pointing at a photograph, they would have a higher success rate than Bader. Therefore, I think the logical end conclusion is that we should leave his nonsense out of our draft discussions altogether.
I agree. I think the pick is most likely to be Wright, as we all do. And Slafkovsky is a great fit in NJ, as we all know. But if Montreal goes with Slafkovsky, then Wright should certainly be the pick, unless some other team goes absolutely bonkers with a Lindros-like trade offer.
I wouldn't call that likely, but you never know if there's a team needing a #1 C who has Wright rated extremely highly by their scouting staff. Again, if not? Then let's get Shane Wright in NJ and figure out where the rest of the pieces fit from there.
I'm guessing you missed the group of posts I'm sarcasticly referencing, haha.
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