Prospect Info: Current #2 overall poll and discussion

[Guadana]

I'm going to back up @Guadana here and say that -- although I like certain elements of Scouching's approach -- ultimately he's one of the weaker draft evaluators when it comes to his rankings and ultimate assessments.

Scouching is terrific in breaking down video elements and aspects of players, so I would still absolutely recommend him as a draft-day resource. He's extremely eloquent and excels at conveying his ideas on players, which are often quite interesting and unique.

However, as @Guadana states, he always has tunnel-vision in preferring one specific type of player and eschewing many other player types which are just as valuable, if not more valuable, to an NHL contender.

There are a couple of 2022 rankings which are extremely indicative of his biases over-ruling logic altogether. Foremost would have to be his rankings of US-NTDP defenders. He has Seamus Casey at #8 overall, while the best US-NTDP defenseman this year has pretty clearly been Ryan Chesley, who Scouching has ranked #47. This represents almost a bizarre disparity -- because as good as Casey is, if an NHL team were to draft him at #8 -- and ahead of Simon Nemec -- it would be time to fire the entire scouting staff. He's just not capable of playing a top pairing role on either side of the puck, he's more a guy you take because he's solid-to-very-good across the board on both sides of the puck. Regardless of your opinion of Chesley -- probably the most advanced defensive defender in the 2022 class -- we have to logically annihilate the Casey ranking due to the Nemec Factor.

Scouching really loses all credibility here with his #11 ranking of Simon Nemec, 3 slots behind Casey. There is not a single aspect of the game where Casey is grading above Nemec. Skating? Nemec. Size/strength? Nemec. Passing/playmaking? Nemec. Puckhandling? Nemec. Defensive play? Nemec. Intangibles? Nemec. Puckhandling? Nemec. Transition game? Nemec. It's really not even close. The one area Casey competes is in Nemec's singular weakness, which is a so-so shot. That's it.

We see more of this nonsense in 2020, with Jake Sanderson in the bottom half of Round One and a very sketchy defender like Wallinder tiers ahead of guys like Schneider, Guhle and Faber. At this point, it should be plain for Scouching to see that his algorithm for defensemen needs to be updated, but his Casey vs. Nemec ranking is proof positive mistakes are being repeated on an even more painful level.

With forwards, you'd think Scouching's preference for exclusively pace and speed would be less detrimental, but he went ahead and ranked Suzdalev and Ingram over names like McGroarty, Snuggerud, Gaucher etc. so we can see he's completely departed reality again here, as well. Again he's not learning from previous mistakes, like his 2021 #4 overall ranking of Fabian Lysell and far-lower-than-deserved rankings for potential NHL stars like Guenther, McTavish and L'Heureux.

Ultimately, I'd say Scouching is a nice resource to use for certain aspects of certain player types, but his overall rankings are better off taken with a grain of salt. Which is to say I like him, but I'm certainly not relying on his rankings as any sort of a viable resource.

He is a fun guy for me. (no, he is not. He can`t make good jokes) He sometimes even can`t really believe in his own data. But he fix his narrative for making his data looks better. And as I believe he is trying to sell it somehow. But he could be a good scout. He really could be. Because he is very good eye tester. But his ranking of preferences is... it isn`t working in NHL.
I like his quote... something like "if you wanna have good defense, you shouldn`t need to defened, you should not give a puck away". I dont remember it corrrectly. But I believe everybody will understand. It`s a unicorn pasture. May be guys from Canada live in their own beatiful world of splitting heads and infinite maple syrop that makes everything sweeter, but in real hockey it doesn`t work this way. Defensemen with good skating and speed, size and physical game among the boards will always be very demanded. Always. Even if they cant give a lot of "quarterbacking". His Schneider and Guhle outside of the first round, Wallinder in the top-20, Grans on the top of Guhle and Schneider, Sanderson... I believe he did rank him in the middle of the first round, something like 14-17. It`s ridiculous.

I did mentioned what he prefer in forwards.

The main thing is NHL teams build with different players for different roles. And different roles will ask different. Even if a guy can`t make a freaking pass, he could be easy great in NHL. How? He can win pack battles, he can find a way to shot in the traffic, he has speed and boldness, he has playmaking driver in his line, he is hard worker without the puck. But his passing... lets say below average. Mister Scouch will cut this kind of a guy out from the first round. But in NHL if you can create space, protect the puck and win the traffic battles, you are rare type of a player that everybody wants.
And this is how you should rank players. Understand what kind of role he will play or could play or should play. Whats he lacks of and what his strengths for this roles are. Because even rock solid second pair defenseman for tough minutes is a role for players, that teams are trying to find in the first round. Like they did with Guhle and Schneider.

But I like his vision. He is deep with it. He makes a lot of work and it really helps me. This is some kind of the wrong oppinion you must listen. Absolutely. Because on my taste he makes a lot of work, that you not often meet in scouting. I just making absolutely different conclusions)

but.. o my God, how much he svcks in projecting of defenseman. He did a huge... HUGE mistake when he attacked Yzerman with Seider. And he did no right conclusions from that. Year after. Now he has Casey above Nemec. Edvinsson was 8th(Say hello to Steve, who did more huge mistake and I warned you, Steve, you didn`t listen. I did it loudly, very loudly). Sanderson was in the middle of the first round, Guhle and Schneider... He did hate our pick with Mukhamadullin. I'm rooting for this guy at least because I want to see the happy approving reactions of all the "specialists" who treated Shakir the way they treated him. Although Shakir began to prove very quickly that he deserved positive attention. And in games in the AHL, he looked almost the best defenseman. Being the youngest defenseman in the AHL. I understand his weaknesses, but he work on his game well and fast. Faster than scouching fixing his weaknesses in his analysis.

 

[Guadana]

Where I disagree strongly here would start with Slafkovsky's style. Slaf is a pass-first player with elite playmaking capability. I think this narrative was twisted a bit because of his 7-goal, 0-assist Olympic performance. His shot is very, very good but nowhere near his playmaking capability.

Though I agree that Slaf likes to take the puck into high-danger scoring areas, he also likes to simply use his elite puckhandling to create time for himself along the boards and down low while allowing his teammates to find space in scoring lanes -- where Slaf's ability to create time and space for himself plays into his elite-level playmaking capability.

Zubrus was an excellent guy to have on your line, but he was really a north/south take-it-to-the-net type. He never had anywhere close to the finesse game of a Slafkovsky. If he gets anywhere close to his potential, Slaf is going to rack up the assists at the NHL level.

Reason I believe he could be better partner for Nico than for Jack. I do really think he would be great partner for both, but I think with Nico they could make the perfect fit. Especially if we will put mister Holtz on their line.

 

[StevenToddIves]

He is a fun guy for me. (no, he is not. He can`t make good jokes) He sometimes even can`t really believe in his own data. But he fix his narrative for making his data looks better. And as I believe he is trying to sell it somehow. But he could be a good scout. He really could be. Because he is very good eye tester. But his ranking of preferences is... it isn`t working in NHL.
I like his quote... something like "if you wanna have good defense, you shouldn`t need to defened, you should not give a puck away". I dont remember it corrrectly. But I believe everybody will understand. It`s a unicorn pasture. May be guys from Canada live in their own beatiful world of splitting heads and infinite maple syrop that makes everything sweeter, but in real hockey it doesn`t work this way. Defensemen with good skating and speed, size and physical game among the boards will always be very demanded. Always. Even if they cant give a lot of "quarterbacking". His Schneider and Guhle outside of the first round, Wallinder in the top-20, Grans on the top of Guhle and Schneider, Sanderson... I believe he did rank him in the middle of the first round, something like 14-17. It`s ridiculous.

I did mentioned what he prefer in forwards.

The main thing is NHL teams build with different players for different roles. And different roles will ask different. Even if a guy can`t make a freaking pass, he could be easy great in NHL. How? He can win pack battles, he can find a way to shot in the traffic, he has speed and boldness, he has playmaking driver in his line, he is hard worker without the puck. But his passing... lets say below average. Mister Scouch will cut this kind of a guy out from the first round. But in NHL if you can create space, protect the puck and win the traffic battles, you are rare type of a player that everybody wants.
And this is how you should rank players. Understand what kind of role he will play or could play or should play. Whats he lacks of and what his strengths for this roles are. Because even rock solid second pair defenseman for tough minutes is a role for players, that teams are trying to find in the first round. Like they did with Guhle and Schneider.

But I like his vision. He is deep with it. He makes a lot of work and it really helps me. This is some kind of the wrong oppinion you must listen. Absolutely. Because on my taste he makes a lot of work, that you not often meet in scouting. I just making absolutely different conclusions)

but.. o my God, how much he svcks in projecting of defenseman. He did a huge... HUGE mistake when he attacked Yzerman with Seider. And he did no right conclusions from that. Year after. Now he has Casey above Nemec. Edvinsson was 8th(Say hello to Steve, who did more huge mistake and I warned you, Steve, you didn`t listen. I did it loudly, very loudly). Sanderson was in the middle of the first round, Guhle and Schneider... He did hate our pick with Mukhamadullin. I'm rooting for this guy at least because I want to see the happy approving reactions of all the "specialists" who treated Shakir the way they treated him. Although Shakir began to prove very quickly that he deserved positive attention. And in games in the AHL, he looked almost the best defenseman. Being the youngest defenseman in the AHL. I understand his weaknesses, but he work on his game well and fast. Faster than scouching fixing his weaknesses in his analysis.

Great take here.

Yes I was wrong on Edvinsson. I also blew it on Scott Morrow. Keep reminding me, haha. The rest of my 2021 defenseman rankings look pretty darned good right now.

Most importantly, "It's a unicorn pasture" is possibly the best insult I've ever heard on this thread. Nice job.

 

[Xirik]

As a Canadian I can confirm that is what our heads are filled with. I wonder how Guadana got this highly clasified information though.

 

[oxman44]

Where I disagree strongly here would start with Slafkovsky's style. Slaf is a pass-first player with elite playmaking capability. I think this narrative was twisted a bit because of his 7-goal, 0-assist Olympic performance. His shot is very, very good but nowhere near his playmaking capability.

Though I agree that Slaf likes to take the puck into high-danger scoring areas, he also likes to simply use his elite puckhandling to create time for himself along the boards and down low while allowing his teammates to find space in scoring lanes -- where Slaf's ability to create time and space for himself plays into his elite-level playmaking capability.

Zubrus was an excellent guy to have on your line, but he was really a north/south take-it-to-the-net type. He never had anywhere close to the finesse game of a Slafkovsky. If he gets anywhere close to his potential, Slaf is going to rack up the assists at the NHL level.

Cool, Im just enthralled we are able to be in this slot. Im hoping fitz dosent overthink things here. I think we both hope that he turns out to BOTH our images of his future lol.
Im sure you watched quite a bit more of him, as you thankfully always do with all these kids. I was only able to find 1 game from Liga. everything else was just the international games, where, from what I hear was somewhat different in a lot of ways.
On that note its been hard to find full games at all lately. Usually I can find 3 games or so from each prospect in the top 15 but the Licensing seems to be really tough now.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Reason I believe he could be better partner for Nico than for Jack. I do really think he would be great partner for both, but I think with Nico they could make the perfect fit. Especially if we will put mister Holtz on their line.

What I'm saying. He won't be bad with Jack but he will provide that missing element on Nico's line that Hall provided before. I think he's better fit with Nico as well.

 

[severian]

I think that would be a good and realistic outcome.

I’m still sticking with my Viktor Kozlov vibes.

I think of Kozlov and Zubrus as very similar players. Kozlov was a slightly better offensive producer.

The question for is whether this is really a good outcome from a second overall pick.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think of Kozlov and Zubrus as very similar players. Kozlov was a slightly better offensive producer.

The question for is whether this is really a good outcome from a second overall pick.

Well, considering Slafkovsky has extremely little in common with Kozlov and Zubrus as hockey players, I don't think it's really relevant.

I'd say Rantanen is a far better comparison than either of those guys.

Zubrus was a compete north/south guy without much finesse. Kozlov was a skill guy with size but without compete or an interior game.

Both Rantanen and Slafkovsky mix a high-level finesse game with a rare ability to achieve this in the interior areas at a high compete level. Though there are certainly differences in the nuances of their games, Rantanen is without a doubt the best recent comparison for Slafkovsky in my mind.

 

[Xirik]

Still on the Slaf hype train but I wish he was more of a Shooter/finisher then playmaker. Feels like everyone on the team is a playmaker so every powerplay we spend 30 seconds passing before someone finally takes a shot.

 

[glenwo2]

The only way Slaf becomes similar like Zubrus is if he starts playing Techno-music in the locker room.

 

[Guttersniped]

Hockeyprospect.com has dropped it’s beloved Black Book and final draft list with a big tall fella as the new #1.

Here’s a link to the Top 32 available to non-subscribers.

2022 NHL Draft Rankings - HockeyProspect.com

Here’s the March 14th Top 10 & link for Top 32:

HockeyProspect.com 2022 NHL Draft Top 32 Ranking - March 14, 2021 - HockeyProspect.com

 

[MWagg72]

Reason I believe he could be better partner for Nico than for Jack. I do really think he would be great partner for both, but I think with Nico they could make the perfect fit. Especially if we will put mister Holtz on their line.

So without adding another piece we'd have lines 1a and 1b of

Bratt - Jack - Mercer
Slaf - Nico - Holtz

Add another top 6 forward from UFA or trade and Mercer could slide down to 3C.

Then you have Grits out there as well. There is a lot of mix and match potential adding Slaf to the core.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Hockeyprospect.com has dropped it’s beloved Black Book and final draft list with a big tall fella as the new #1.

View attachment 560498

Here’s a link to the Top 32 available to non-subscribers.

2022 NHL Draft Rankings - HockeyProspect.com

Here’s the March 14th Top 10 & link for Top 32:

View attachment 560497


HockeyProspect.com 2022 NHL Draft Top 32 Ranking - March 14, 2021 - HockeyProspect.com

This is extremely significant, this is a major scouting bureau. The Mintyukov and Kasper rankings are also quite significant, in my opinion.

 

[mdj12784]

Zubrus board play was a MASTER CLASS! God I miss our bull in a China shop…

 

[Guttersniped]

The always quirky Craig Button dropped his somewhat quirky final draft list.

The thing that sticks out here is Snuggles at #8. Scouching has his average ranking at #31.42 and Elite Prospects Consolidated Rankings have him at #23.

He has Nazar at #25 (boo!), has Lambert at #42 (lol), Chelsey at #45 (yes, 31 NHL team’s scouts should think he’s not very good and let him drop to #37, make that happen universe) and Mesar as #59 (ok, now he’s just a sick monster at this point).

And he has Dylan James at #50, leaning in even harder on him than A Certain Poster did by having him #65.

And Logan Morrison at #49! And Alexander Perevalov at #21!

Maybe he can adopt you @StevenToddIves

'I never considered another player at No. 1' - Wright locked in atop final Craig's List - TSN.ca

Edit: Didn’t actually have Mesar’s rank listed in the original post, apparently it being #59 was too triggering for me.

 

[Guadana]

As a Canadian I can confirm that is what our heads are filled with. I wonder how Guadana got this highly clasified information though.

Netflix told me so. If you will watch stranger things, you will know how I am exactly looking.

So without adding another piece we'd have lines 1a and 1b of

Bratt - Jack - Mercer
Slaf - Nico - Holtz

Add another top 6 forward from UFA or trade and Mercer could slide down to 3C.

Then you have Grits out there as well. There is a lot of mix and match potential adding Slaf to the core.

we have Yegor and Gritsyuk +. I believe we have one or may be even more good top-9 players in Foote/Zetterlund/Thompson. And may be Boqvist could make a few steps forward.
More over - from the days before the draft I have worries about lack of two way game in Holtz resume. I did watch a lot of his game next year and his offensive upside was unbelievable , but his boarding game and forechecking were visible red flags. And skating ofcourse. And I think duo of Nico and Slaf could compensate his weaknesses very well. But its close to dream scenario, because I’m talking about two players in one line, that didn’t play in NHL. If we want to try to imagine how lines will look like, we should have one rookie on one line.

What I'm saying. He won't be bad with Jack but he will provide that missing element on Nico's line that Hall provided before. I think he's better fit with Nico as well.

I think Nico is very good, but not great driver.And I think he is very good, but not great playmaker. I’m not trying to say something bad about him, I really like him. I think he is very good interior player and if we somehow can find player, who will help Nico to drive the line and open Nico scoring potential - it would be great, especially it gives Nico some open space because Slaf could make some board work. Reason why vesey didn’t look lost on the Nico line. He could make not a lot of job, but the part of to help Nico. Nico needs in player, who can play on the boards. Who can drive, make a pass and score goals. I really think if Slaf will pan out, Nico could be a 90+ points player.

we are closing for something big. And I’m afraid Montreal can ruin it.

 

[Rusty7550]

Hockeyprospect.com has dropped it’s beloved Black Book and final draft list with a big tall fella as the new #1.

View attachment 560498

Here’s a link to the Top 32 available to non-subscribers.

2022 NHL Draft Rankings - HockeyProspect.com

Here’s the March 14th Top 10 & link for Top 32:

View attachment 560497


HockeyProspect.com 2022 NHL Draft Top 32 Ranking - March 14, 2021 - HockeyProspect.com

Damn. 4 Slovaks in 1st round. That would be historical thing

 

[Lou is God]

Was camping all weekend - did I miss something on the Habs front in regards to Wright and Slaf?

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I would be very happy if we draft Slaf and he becomes Dainus Zubrus.

Would that be best case scenario? Obviously not. I'd prefer him to be a point per game star. But Zubrus was a very, very valuable player.

 

[Saugus]

The always quirky Craig Button dropped his somewhat quirky final draft list.

View attachment 560511

The thing that sticks out here is Snuggles at #8. Scouching has his average ranking at #31.42 and Elite Prospects Consolidated Rankings have him at #23.

He has Nazar at 25 (boo!), has Lambert at 42 (lol), Chelsey at 45 (yes, 31 NHL team’s scouts should think his not very good and let him drop to 37, make that happen universe) and Mesar (ok, now he’s just a sick monster at this point).

And he has Dylan James at #50, leaning in even harder on him than A Certain Poster did by having him #65.

And Logan Morrison at #49! And Alexander Perevalov at #21!

Maybe he can adopt you @StevenToddIves

'I never considered another player at No. 1' - Wright locked in atop final Craig's List - TSN.ca

Ya, Button has some weird opinions, but I think he can't be totally discounted. It was a million years ago at this point, but he was once a GM and scout, so his insights into how teams sometimes talk themselves into unorthodox picks are valuable in their own right.

 

[glenwo2]

I would be very happy if we draft Slaf and he becomes Dainus Zubrus.

Would that be best case scenario? Obviously not. I'd prefer him to be a point per game star. But Zubrus was a very, very valuable player.

would you be happy to hear Techno-music blaring in the locker room postgame?

 

[StevenToddIves]

The always quirky Craig Button dropped his somewhat quirky final draft list.

View attachment 560511

The thing that sticks out here is Snuggles at #8. Scouching has his average ranking at #31.42 and Elite Prospects Consolidated Rankings have him at #23.

He has Nazar at #25 (boo!), has Lambert at #42 (lol), Chelsey at #45 (yes, 31 NHL team’s scouts should think his not very good and let him drop to #37, make that happen universe) and Mesar as #59 (ok, now he’s just a sick monster at this point).

And he has Dylan James at #50, leaning in even harder on him than A Certain Poster did by having him #65.

And Logan Morrison at #49! And Alexander Perevalov at #21!

Maybe he can adopt you @StevenToddIves

'I never considered another player at No. 1' - Wright locked in atop final Craig's List - TSN.ca

Edit: Didn’t actually have Mesar’s rank listed in the original post, apparently it being #59 was too triggering for me.

My first thought looking at Craig Button's rankings was that Jimmy Snuggerud's mother must be thrilled.

The Mesar ranking is something I would like explained. Near elite speed and near elite skills across the board with high end intelligence and compete level -- what's not to like? The Nazar and Chesley rankings also outright baffle me.

Dylan James is a phenomenal sleeper. He possesses exceptional speed and very good skill and creativity with the puck. He won the USHL Rookie of the Year and played clutch playoff hockey in helping his team capture the USHL championship. He has good size and no discernible weaknesses. I don't think ranking him at #50 is too high.

I'll also commend Button on his Logan Morrison ranking. Any draft analyst who ignores Morrison needs to check themselves -- Logan was the second best OHL forward this year after only Wyatt Johnston, and then was the very best player in the OHL post-season in leading Hamilton to the title. The kid is the truth.

Ya, Button has some weird opinions, but I think he can't be totally discounted. It was a million years ago at this point, but he was once a GM and scout, so his insights into how teams sometimes talk themselves into unorthodox picks are valuable in their own right.

I like Button because I feel his wonky weirdness is most in line with what actual NHL Draft boards look like. Sure, almost everyone has Wright and Slafkovsky at the top, but after that I think it opens up and goes all over the place. I don't feel it's unrealistic to think some team has Snuggerud at #8.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Netflix told me so. If you will watch stranger things, you will know how I am exactly looking.

we have Yegor and Gritsyuk +. I believe we have one or may be even more good top-9 players in Foote/Zetterlund/Thompson. And may be Boqvist could make a few steps forward.
More over - from the days before the draft I have worries about lack of two way game in Holtz resume. I did watch a lot of his game next year and his offensive upside was unbelievable , but his boarding game and forechecking were visible red flags. And skating ofcourse. And I think duo of Nico and Slaf could compensate his weaknesses very well. But its close to dream scenario, because I’m talking about two players in one line, that didn’t play in NHL. If we want to try to imagine how lines will look like, we should have one rookie on one line.

I think Nico is very good, but not great driver.And I think he is very good, but not great playmaker. I’m not trying to say something bad about him, I really like him. I think he is very good interior player and if we somehow can find player, who will help Nico to drive the line and open Nico scoring potential - it would be great, especially it gives Nico some open space because Slaf could make some board work. Reason why vesey didn’t look lost on the Nico line. He could make not a lot of job, but the part of to help Nico. Nico needs in player, who can play on the boards. Who can drive, make a pass and score goals. I really think if Slaf will pan out, Nico could be a 90+ points player.

we are closing for something big. And I’m afraid Montreal can ruin it.

I like the idea of Slaf with Jack more.

I’m also not sure why you think Nico needs someone who’s good on the boards.
Nico himself is very good on the boards. Probably our best forward along the boards right now.

 

[Guadana]

I like the idea of Slaf with Jack more.

I’m also not sure why you think Nico needs someone who’s good on the boards.
Nico himself is very good on the boards. Probably our best forward along the boards right now.

You did say why we should try to date them. With romantic euro music. Like we call it here "unc-unc-unc".
Because Nico is a center with great potential, and he have to work on the boards because his partners can't. If his winger, who should play among the boards, would play among the boards competently, Nico will find a lot of space and time to learn and create more magic.

 

[Captain3rdLine]