Prospect Info: Current #2 overall poll and discussion

[My3Sons]

Same. It needs to be worthwhile of course, but if we come away with Jiricek plus some other prime asset I'd be stoked.

Adding a guy who projects to be our 3rd line center at #2OA? Not how I would play it.

Why not? NJ already took its 3C at first overall.

Honestly, do you people do this on purpose at this point?

 

[MasterofGrond]

Having to figure out how to play wright (if he pans out), Jack, and nico on the same team is the ultimate first world problem.

I’d be ecstatic if that’s what we’re struggling with over the next few seasons.

 

[My3Sons]

Having to figure out how to play wright (if he pans out), Jack, and nico on the same team is the ultimate first world problem.

I’d be ecstatic if that’s what we’re struggling with over the next few seasons.

Presumably one of them will have to move to goalie

 

[longislanddevil]

You're kind of contradicting yourself here.

He's not going to be a better NHL player but then you say "Top End Centers are precious commodities".

So Shane Wright is a "Top End Center" now? I thought he was not going to be a better NHL player.

Which is it?


Look, I know you said you don't want Wright but he's going to be the consensus BPA if Slaf is selected (for some reason) by the Habs.

I would find it very hard to believe Fitz would just let Wright waltz past him to another team after the Devils got such a great GIFT of WINNING THE F'N LOTTO.

In that situation, you count your blessings and take full advantage of that by drafting the Best Player Available which is Shane Wright.

Redundancy should not be viewed with vitriol if we're going to end up having the Deepest Center Core for a long-ass time....

I should have used the word *potential* before top end centers. I’m not crapping on Wright. There will undoubtedly be other teams who covet the position and are higher on the player than I am.

I respectfully disagree on redundancy. If I can draft a player like Slaf or Gauthier who fit a major need and could arguably wind up better NHL players than Wright, I’m doing it. The same holds true for Jiricek and Nemec.

 

[ninetyeight]

Gauthier who fit a major need and could arguably wind up better NHL players than Wright, I’m doing it. The same holds true for Jiricek and Nemec.

What makes you think Gauthier could become better than Wright? I really like Gauthier, and think he's gonna be great value around the #10 pick +-3, but in no way does he have the same kinda ceiling Wright, Slaf or Nemec has.

I know Wright's stock has dropped and it's the new cool thing to underestimate him, but some people are completely ignoring what kinda junior career he has had prior to this season. This is an exceptional status player putting way over ppg as a 15yo. He's stock has certainly dropped, but you have to know how high it was. Wright still has franchise player potential. Even in his supposed "down year" this season he still outscored Gauthier by a lot (different leagues, but I consider OHL much higher level than USDP outside the few NCAA games).

I think the fact that it has looked like we aren't getting Wright has made some people mentally convince themselves that he isn't even that good.

 

[severian]

I think the fact that it has looked like we aren't getting Wright has made some people mentally convince themselves that he isn't even that good.

This. Lots of Devils fans are doing what the Rags fans did with Kaako vs Hughes. I’ll be thrilled with Slaf at #2, but Wright is the better prospect. I’ll be pumped if the Canadiens try to be cute on draft day.

 

[TBF1972]

Yikes.

Basically declaring: I'm an amateaur!

bader isn't an amateur. there are plenty of amateurs like @StevenToddIves, who actually do good work.

 

[Goptor]

With the draft coming nearer - 2 weeks now - it seems more and more likely that Montreal is going to take Wright.

They should be doing a big PR campaign if they had any intention of taking someone else. The worst thing that can happen is for them to go up to the podium in their own stadium and not take the guy 95% of your fans expect you to take. They'll bring up Slaf, Cooley, etc. and the first experience for them is a massive booing stadium.

 

[glenwo2]

I'm not doing what Rags fans have done 'cause we don't really know 100% that the Habs will take Wright so there really is no need to take a dump on Shane Wright.

Both players are going to be OUTSTANDING players in the league.

Picking #2 has put the Devils in a very enviable position whereas if we were picking #1, the pressure to pick Shane would be quite massive.

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

This. Lots of Devils fans are doing what the Rags fans did with Kaako vs Hughes. I’ll be thrilled with Slaf at #2, but Wright is the better prospect. I’ll be pumped if the Canadiens try to be cute on draft day.

EXACTLY

 

[Goptor]

I'm not doing what Rags fans have done 'cause we don't really know 100% that the Habs will take Wright so there really is no need to take a dump on Shane Wright.

Both players are going to be OUTSTANDING players in the league.

Picking #2 has put the Devils in a very enviable position whereas if we were picking #1, the pressure to pick Shane would be quite massive.

They have the wrong idea. Its not "How do you fit Wright into the lineup?"
Its "How do you defend against Hischier/Hughes/Wright?"

One of those guys will be up against the Ty Smiths of the world every time they step onto the ice.

 

[severian]

They have the wrong idea. Its not "How do you fit Wright into the lineup?"
Its "How do you defend against Hischier/Hughes/Wright?"

One of those guys will be up against the Ty Smiths of the world every time they step onto the ice.

The only problem is that I don’t see this happening because there is no way Hughes passes on Wright in front of the home crowd.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I would be happy if NJ just took Wright, I'd also be happy if NJ were able to trade the pick cause Wright dropped. Ultimately don't think NJ could go wrong but do agree that Slafkovsky to NJ just seems like a perfect match of player and organizational need and would prefer him at this point.

 

[BruinsJoe]

Draft Slavkovsky, unless the pick can be used to get Pasternak

i m curious to know what can be the deal to get Pasta, surely not only the second over all pick...

 

[devilsblood]

bader isn't an amateur. there are plenty of amateurs like @StevenToddIves, who actually do good work.

Aight.

Basically declaring: I'm a Hack!

 

[Saugus]

This. Lots of Devils fans are doing what the Rags fans did with Kaako vs Hughes. I’ll be thrilled with Slaf at #2, but Wright is the better prospect. I’ll be pumped if the Canadiens try to be cute on draft day.

I'll be happy with either of them. Probably the only scenario I'll be unhappy with on draft day is if we trade the pick for some inadequate return.

 

[JrFischer54]

Trade the pick for legit top line talent if it’s out there

 

[devilsblood]

Shane Wright probably ends up being a 60-80pts top6 two-way forward, but there's also a decent chance the last few seasons have been anomalies (well he didn't even play in the covid season 20-21) and he becomes an absolute monster franchise talent. This guy was already an above ppg player in the OHL as a 15yo. He didn't play last season (a year ago), but he did play 5 games in the u18 wc and put up an incredible 14pts. This year's 94pts in 63games is very good especially for a defensively solid forward. But there's a very real chance that the whole covid period and not playing for a year caused this to be his low point. If he somehow bounces back the the trajectory he was precovid, there's a chance he's gonna be an incredible superstar player.

If montreal somehow passes on Wright, we trade down and Wright becomes the player he was projected to be as a 15yo, that could be the mistake of the decade.

Not if we trade down, get Jiricek, he turns into a top pair guy, and then get another decent/good player with whatever else we get.

 

[RSeen]

Trade the pick for legit top line talent if it’s out there

Or just pick the potential top line talent that has significant team control and is likely close to NHL ready. Oh and will be on an ELC for three years.

 

[JrFischer54]

Or just pick the potential top line talent that has significant team control and is likely close to NHL ready. Oh and will be on an ELC for three years.

True ooooor another way you can word it. Pick an unknown with an unknown timeline

 

[JrFischer54]

Having to figure out how to play wright (if he pans out), Jack, and nico on the same team is the ultimate first world problem.

I’d be ecstatic if that’s what we’re struggling with over the next few seasons.

Or wright passes nico on the depth chart and you can then look to move nico. (Uh oh fanboys unite)

 

[devilsblood]

True ooooor another way you can word it. Pick an unknown with an unknown timeline

But much of the salary considerations are known, some of the timelines are know as well.

The draftee will be significantly cheaper for at least 3 years, and will also be in their early 20's 5 years from now. Every potential trade consideration that I've seen brings in an expensive fwd who will be in their 30's in 5 years.

I'm just not trading the #2oa. Holtz? Smith? Shak(who of these 3 I like the most)? Sure. But I'm drafting somebody in the top 10(leaving open the possibility of a trade down) of this years draft.

 

[bossram]

Yes, I understand this fully. Which doesn't change my point -- his model is awful at projecting how good players are going to be in the future.

Not only is the model very bad, but as @Captain3rdLine correctly pointed out, he's not even competent enough to feed the correct numbers into his own flawed model.

Since Bader does not watch hockey, he does not understand the disparity between the actual US-NTDP schedule and the eliteprospects.com website, which is essentially his singular reference. Furthermore, Bader does not know how to correctly incorporate tournament play statistics into his model, so he constantly disparages them as he has done all year long with Juraj Slafkovsky and all last year with Mason McTavish.

Again, we're talking about a guy who picked ZERO of the top 4 picks last year in his final top 4. If you gave a monkey a photograph of the consensus top 20 and had the monkey pick the top 4 by randomly pointing at a photograph, they would have a higher success rate than Bader. Therefore, I think the logical end conclusion is that we should leave his nonsense out of our draft discussions altogether.

Well, I don't think you do because your mention the same point two paragraphs later. If someone didn't think a player was going to be in the top-four best players of the draft, why would you rank them in the top-four? It's not a prediction.

There are guys Bader was much higher on than consensus last season (Stankoven, Zellweger, Behrens, etc.) who seemed to have progressed very well in their D+1.

Yeah, the model isn't great. But the vitriol is kinda unhinged.

 

[JrFischer54]

But much of the salary considerations are known, some of the timelines are know as well.

The draftee will be significantly cheaper for at least 3 years, and will also be in their early 20's 5 years from now. Every potential trade consideration that I've seen brings in an expensive fwd who will be in their 30's in 5 years.

I'm just not trading the #2oa. Holtz? Smith? Shak(who of these 3 I like the most)? Sure. But I'm drafting somebody in the top 10(leaving open the possibility of a trade down) of this years draft.

Again I don’t care about the salary or the age. This team is plenty young it needs legit nhl talent. I’m not scared of an elite player aged 28 coming here. Or giving him a big contract.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Or wright passes nico on the depth chart and you can then look to move nico. (Uh oh fanboys unite)

We joke about it a lot around here, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world if Nico’s role in the future is “best third line center in the league.” Teams win cups with that kind of depth.